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Analyst: Rob Rosenhaus
2000* INTERCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
2000* Falcons
The way the Falcons run it and the way the Broncos stop the run this is a cakewalk for the home team. Michael Turner should have over 150 yards and a few scores, as Denver's defense is probably the worst or second worst in the league overall. On the flip side, Denver has no running backs as they are all hurt. They signed free agents Alex Haynes and Tatum Bell this week for some help, but they won't do much. 401.9. That is how many yards per game Denver allows. They get rocked by two TD's or more today.
Using the standard six points you receive in a 2-Team Teaser, reduce the price you are laying with both favorites.
New York has been a steady 7 point home favorite all week against Baltimore. With the six-point teaser, you would make New York a 1 point chalk (depending of course on your original price - which is why it always pays to shop around).
Atlanta is laying 6 1/2 points at home versus Denver. Again, you can do the math, reducing Atlanta to virtually a pick-em game by taking away six points from the original price.
Both games kickoff at 1:00 P.M. Eastern and obviously the lines you get might be +/- the prices I'm listing.
Matt Fargo's **9** 78.6% AFC Game of the Year- 2-0 TW - Sunday
**9** 78.6% AFC Game of the Year ? 2-0 TW There isn?t a team in the NFL that wants to end the Titans unbeaten season more than Jacksonville does. Indianapolis is a close second but the Jaguars and Titans have hated each other for a long time and what better way for the streak to end than for Jacksonville to get it done and home and keep its playoff hopes alive. The Jaguars are 4-5 and while the division title is gone, the Wild Card is not. They are two games behind the Ravens and a win here is not only priority but a must.
Tennessee is undefeated, ranked 1st in almost every power ranking out there and is the public darling right now. The Titans have allowed the fewest points in the NFL and last week people were looking their remaining schedule to see what the 16-0 prospect looks like. Are you kidding me? They have played the 23rd ranked schedule in the league and they have beaten only two teams ranked within the top ten in the NFL. Of all the past 9-0 teams in the history of the league, Tennessee is near the bottom of the list.
The last three games for Tennessee have been far from efforts that should be put forth from the best team in the NFL. It took a 4th quarter comeback and the luck of a deflected interception against the Colts, it took an overtime win at home against Green Bay and it took a horrendous effort from Bears quarterback last week. Any one of those games could have been lost. Tennessee has been outgained in four of its last six games and on the season, it is outgaining opponents by only 28.6 ypg.
The Jaguars have no doubt had their issues this season but look how close they are to having a better record. Their five losses have come by seven, four, five, six and two points. Jacksonville has either led or been tied in the fourth quarter in three of those losses. While that may be a concern about the lack of being able to close games, I believe it shows how close this team is being from really good. The Jaguars blowout win over the Lions last Sunday was just what they needed.
This line is very shady. The Titans were favored by a field goal at Chicago and now they are favored by a field goal at Jacksonville. This is saying that The Bears and Jaguars are on an even level and they are not. According to Jeff Sagarin, Chicago is 8th in his power ratings while Jacksonville is 20th and their ratings are at a six-point differential. So why is this line only three points? You tell me. And because of this, the public is already cashing their Titans tickets. If only it were that easy.
Turnovers are such a big part of football and both have been solid in margins but the Jaguars fall into a great situation based on this. Play against any team against the moneyline in a game involving two teams that have a turnover margin of 1.25 or fewer per game after four consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 22-6 (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is a moneyline situation favoring the underdog which makes it even stronger. 9* Jacksonville
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