10-25-12

[Mr. IWS]

Christian Alexander's Pick Pack

NCAA Football Thursday Picks

Member Plays

Matchup: Clemson at Wake Forest Time: 7:30 PM EDT (Thu) Play: Clemson (-11.5 -110) We were on Clemson last week as a winner against VT and like them again this week even on a short week on the road. The Clemson defense can be suspect at times; however they looked much improved against VT last weekend and face a WF team that ranks 111th in yards per game and have lost 3 of their last 5. Meanwhile their offense is what really carries this team, averaging 492 yards and 41 points per game (both rank 16th nationally). RB Andre Ellington and QB Tajh Boyd have carried this team so far this year and they look to have another big game Thursday night against a Wake Forest team that ranks 74th in the country, allowing 28 points a game. This line has been bet down throughout the week and I will gladly take the deflated line in a game that Clemson should win by at least two touchdowns. Be sure and check back for the rest of my Saturday winners as they will be posted Friday morning. I am hitting 62% (+1,217) this season and just went 5-1 in Week 8.

[Mr. IWS]

Joe Nelson's Pick Pack

NFL Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (41.5 -110)
Line Source: Mirage-MGM
Posted on: October 25, 2012 @ 11:08:27 AM EDT

The Vikings had ugly offensive numbers last week despite beating Arizona. Minnesota was able to build an early lead and sit on it, primarily running the ball as Christian Ponder attempted just 17 passes. Minnesota only ran 44 offensive plays which accounted for the low numbers as the Vikings were aided with a defensive touchdown and went just 1 for 10 on 3rd down plays. Minnesota has scored at least 20 points in every game this season as the offense has been consistently productive. At home they have out-gained every foe and averaged 24 points per game. In road games Tampa Bay has allowed over 450 yards per game with very poor numbers against the pass. Overall the Buccaneers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing 399 yards per game but the run defense has been strong. That will force Minnesota into the air more often tonight and should lead to more plays being run with the clock stoppages and ultimately higher scoring. Tampa Bay is posting 347 yards per game on offense, while scoring almost 25 points per game and in the last two three games Tampa Bay has scored 88 points. Minnesota has improved on defense this season but the Vikings have still been vulnerable against the pass and Minnesota has benefited from a fairly easy early season schedule which has helped the numbers. These teams are both top 14 scoring teams in the league rankings and while much has changed for both squads since last season these teams combined for 44 points and over 700 yards last season at the Metrodome. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in Vikings games this season but the games where Minnesota has struggled to run the ball have been high scoring and that will be the focus of the Tampa Bay defense. Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers have come alive on offense the past two weeks coming off a bye week and this could be a higher scoring pass-oriented team the rest of the way. The short week for both defenses and the dome set-up for the kicking games should also help the scoring cause. The ‘over’ is 11-6 in the last 17 games in Minnesota and that trend should continue Thursday night.

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover's Pick Pack

NFL Thursday Picks

Premium Plays
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Tampa Bay (+7 -120)
Line Source: Coasts
Posted on: October 24, 2012 @ 4:20:54 PM EDT

NFC underdogs have been golden this year cashing an unbelievable 83 percent of the time. I see that trend continuing with this matchup. The Vikings are improved, but they don't have strong enough quarterback play to cover this big of a number against a Tampa Bay squad that also has improved, particularly mentally under new coach Greg Schiano. The Buccaneers are 2-4, but their four losses have been by a combined 22 points. That's an average loss of 5.5 points. The Buccaneers have yet to lose by more than seven points in any game. Minnesota has the better straight-up record, but Tampa Bay is better against the spread going 4-2. The Buccaneers have won the last five in this series, including 24-20 last year at Minnesota. The Bucs came back from a 17-0 halftime deficit. Josh Freeman and Doug Martin, the Buccaneers' two key skill position players, have been performing better lately. Vincent Jackson is averaging 21.7 yards a catch while proving he is indeed one of the best wideouts in football. The Vikings rely on Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. The Buccaneers' strength is stopping the run, though, where they rank third allowing just 76 yards per game on the ground. Christian Ponder, the Vikings' second-year quarterback, has tailed off the last three weeks committing seven turnovers during this span with a 5-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole:

2* Tampa/Minny OVER 42.5

[Mr. IWS]

NJ Syndicate

5 wake +13

[Mr. IWS]

PAUL LEINER

250* Tigers -125

100* Over 42.5 Bucs/Vikings

[Mr. IWS]

JEFF SCOTT SPORTS

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

7 POINT TEASER --- Clemson -4.5 & Cincinnati +10.5

3 UNIT PLAYS

Clemson/ Wake Forest Under 59: I gotta feel that the Deacons don’t want to get into a shootout with the Tigers so I will look to the Under in this one. The Clemson offense is explosive, but they may come out a bit flat here after the big win vs Virginia Tech last week. The Deacons allow 183.7 ypg on the ground, but just 221.4 ypg through the air (54th) and that could have this Clemson team using their ground game a bit more here which will eat clock. On offense the Deacons are one of the worst in the Nation with 316 ypg overall (111th) and 22 ppg (97th). They are 101st in rushing but will need to use that ground game in order to keep Boyd and company off the field. Clemson’s defense has been a sore spot for them this year, but they did come off a very good outing vs Va Tech and should have similar success vs a poor Wake offense. Wake will look to control the clock here and I feel they will do it just enough on defense to keep the game under the total. None of the last 6 in the series has put more than 59 points on the board and I don't see it here either.

Cincinnati +3.5 over LOUISVILLE: The Bearcats are 6-1 on the year and have done it with a better than expected offense that has put up 34.7 ppg, after returning just 4 starters from last year, and a defense that has been very good this year, allowing just 18.8 ppg. Cincinnati hasn't played a killer schedule, but the did crush Pitt in their opener and took out Va Tech on a neutral, so they can play against decent competition and I feel that even at 7-0 Louisville is just decent competition. The Cardinals come in perfect on the year, but only be 1 team with a winning record and that was North Carolina, in a game that they nearly blew after jumping out to a huge lead. The Cardinal offense has been very good, putting up 32.7 ppg, but the defense has been a problem in the defense seems to be having problems of late as they have allowed 30 ppg in their last 2 games, which were both vs the Big East. Prior to those games the Cards only played one other team with a good offense and that was Carolina and they allowed 34 points in that one. This is not a great defense and I feel the Bearcats have a solid edge on that side of the ball, while the offenses are pretty even. I look for Louisville to taste defeat for the first time this year as their defense just won't come up with enough stops to win this one.

7 POINT TEASER --- Louisville/ Cincinnati Over 45.5 & Nevada +4

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAY

Nevada -3 Over AIR FORCE

1 UNIT PLAY

Clemson -11.5 Over Wake Forest

[Mr. IWS]

JEFF SCOTT SPORTS

TOP PLAY

3 UNIT PLAY

San Fran/ Detroit Over 7: I had gone against the Giants the last 4 games and they have burned me. I think this game will be a high scoring one. Madison Bumgarner has not pitched well in the post season with an 11.25 ERA in 2 starts and I expect Detroit to tag him for a few before the Giants can get to their solid bull pen. On the oth other side we have a giants squad that is hot offensively as they have score 5+ runs in each of their last 4 games. The will be facing Doug Fister, who has been solid in the post season but he did have a 3.43 ERA on the road with 8.4 rpg being scored in his road games this year. The Giant offense is just on fire right now and will score some in this one, while the desperate Tigers will put up a more than a few on Bumgarner. This one could hit DD again.

[Mr. IWS]

JEFF SCOTT SPORTS

TOP PLAYS

5 UNIT PLAY

7 POINT POWER TEASER OF THE WEEK --- Tampa Bay +13.5 & Under 50

3 UNIT PLAY

Tampa Bay/ Minnesota Under 43: Tampa Bay has faced Romo, Brees, RG3 and Eli Manning in 4 of their 6 games thuse far, so it's no wonder they have allowed 323 ypg through the air. In those 4 games they allowed 29 ppg, but in their two games vs weak QB's (Cam Newton and Matt Casell) they have allowed just 10 ppg. Now tonight they get to face another weak QB in Christian Ponder, who has an 87.5 QB rating (14th) and who average just 6.6 yards per pass attempt, which is 28th in the league. This is not an offense that will stretch the field. They like to use ball control and work their way down the field a little at a time behind a short passing game and the Running of Adrian Petersen. Those drives will eat clock. Tampa bay has been solid in the passing game, throwing for 245 ypg (15th), but moving the ball through the air vs the Vikes may be a bit tough. QB Josh Freeman is 30th in the league in completion pct (55.6) and he will face a Vikings team that is 11th vs the pass, allowing 220.3 ypg. The Vikings are also 7th in the league in yards per pass attempt against (5.9), so don't expect too many big plays for the Bucs passing game. The Vikings philosophy is if your gonna beat us your gonna have to dink and dunk your way down the field. I expect allot of ball control offense in this one and that will chew up the clock. Look for the mid 30's at best here. KEY TRENDS--- Minnesota is 7-1 to the Under as favs vs .333 or worse opponent during first 9 games of the year, while the Bucs are 10-1 Under in their last 11 games off BB Overs.

[Mr. IWS]

J.R Stevens / SMOOTH44

ALL ARE TOP-RATED

NFL
Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay
(PICK: MINNESOTA -5 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***)
Everyone knows I love a weekday dog BUT NOT TONIGHT!! At first glance it's real tempting to jump all over the points considering Minny is the type of team that doesn't really blow teams out and also because Tampa is highly competitive and a very feisty team under first year coach Greg Schiano. However, we are presented with a very rare but extremely successful trend tonight that involves going against certain road teams that have to travel a certain number of miles to play a Thursday night game after playing on Sunday---these teams are a PERFECT 0-14 SU and ATS since the inception of Thursday night NFL!! Last year we saw Philly go to Seattle and get blasted and the Broncos beat the Jets under the same situation!! Let's take the Vikings with tremendous confidence tonight knowing that certain conference home teams are also a PERFECT 11-0 ATS if seeking revenge for a previous season loss in a game they actually outgained their opponent!!
PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 27 TAMPA BAY 13

CFB
Wake Forest vs. Clemson
(PICK: WAKE FOREST +14)
I know, I know Clemson is a scoring machine and have covered 5 of 7 this year--too bad their defense is swiss cheese and even Wake will have success against them!! Let's take Wake with confidence knowing that certain road teams are a PERFECT 0-25 ATS if coming of a SU and ATS win in conference home game against a rival in a game they were actually outgained by more than 100 yards!!
PREDICTION: CLEMSON 30 WAKE FOREST 27

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner:1500* CFB Clemson -11.5

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
Sebastian for Thursday:
All for 50 units:
Detroit
Minnesota
UNDER Clemson

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
6-Unit Play. #106. Take Wake Forrest +13 over Clemson (Thursday @ 7:30pm est)