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Arkansas -6
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Arkansas -6
Northwestern -5
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Marco D'Angelo | CFBSide - Saturday, Oct 27 2012 12:30PM
156 North Carolina -7.0(-110) Hilton vs 155 N.C. State triple-dime bet
Analysis: ATTENTION LONG TERM and ALL ACCESS CUSTOMERS I will have a Night Play after 5:00 EST today please check back then...
PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
North Carolina returns home following a shocking loss at Duke. Duke a 10.5 point underdog pulled the upset 33-30. I look at that game and say North Carolina was looking ahead to this game their rivalry game with NC St. The Tarheels had won 4 in a row prior to last week including going to Miami and beating the Hurricanes. N. Carolina can't go to a Bowl Game this year because of NCAA sanctions so this game against their arch rival is their Bowl Game. North Carolina has scored 27 or more points in every game but one this year. North Carolina is what I like to refer to as a 200 club team which means they rush and pass for 200 yards or more per game. When you can rush for over 200 yards a game you will control the game at the point of attack. NC ST is playing their 3rd game in 4 weeks on the road. When you add up North Carolina's balanced attack, home field and the better defense I have to look at North Carolina. Then when you add in that this is North Carolina's Bowl Game I have to make them my Big play. North Carolina was shutout last year 13-0 we have revenge as well. In fact how does revenge for 5 straight losses to NC ST. sound for motivation. Bad sign for NC St is the fact that Maryland put up 462 yards last week against what looks like a tired defense. North Carolina has a much more potent offense than Maryland. Finally the fact that this line is sitting at 7.5 tells me North Carolina is the right side. 66% of the action has been on NC St but N. Carolina got the real money as this line opened at -7 and went to -7.5 which is begging you to take the dog. The fact that this line got to 7.5 right away and hadn't moved tells me the Wise Guys agree with me and they bet North Carolina. The line has since moved back to 7 this morning on game day as all the public plays the dog which is exactly what we expected them to do. My numbers say North Carolina wins this 37-20.
TAKE NORTH CAROLINA as MARCO'S COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEARComment
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James Manos's Pick Pack
NCAA Football Saturday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: N. Illinois at W. Michigan
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: W. Michigan (+8.5 -110)
Line Source: SportsInteraction
Posted on: October 27, 2012 @ 8:05:41 AM EDT
Despite the recent performances of these two teams, I'm still a bit suprised with the line movement upward in this contest. Northern Illinois has played much better but not much separates these two talent wise. This was supposed to be the battle for the MAC West crown and I expect that the Broncos will still be very "up" for this game. Western Michigan QB Tubbergen has been better at home and the Broncos have played the tougher schedule. NIU's offensive numbers enhanced by having played seven consecutive poor defensive teams. I think this game comes down to the wire.
Aloha.
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Matchup: Mississippi at Arkansas
Time: 12:20 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Arkansas (-6 -107)
Line Source: Sportbet.com
Posted on: October 27, 2012 @ 8:05:41 AM EDT
Arkansas seems to have finally recovered from it's early season swoon that saw them disintegrate as team in the absence of QB Wilson. Wilson was dominant LW and the Razorbacks looked very good on offense. Ole Miss is much improved but have benefiited from a schedule heavy on home games and this will be a tough travel spot. This smells of a blowout and I'm willing to lay the points with the undervalued Hogs.
Aloha.
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Matchup: NC State at North Carolina
Time: 12:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: NC State (+7.5 -110)
Line Source: VI Consensus
Posted on: October 27, 2012 @ 8:05:41 AM EDT
Anyone who has been following my selections this season should not be suprised to see this selection as part of my portfolio as I've been high on this Wolfpack team all season long. I like NC State's matchups here as their secondary can handle an over-rated UNC passing game. Wolfpack HC O'Brien will own the coaching advantage here and brings more familiarity with this intense rivarly. The hook on the seven just too much value to pass up and the visitors will have every chance to win this game SU.
Aloha.
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Matchup: Navy at East Carolina
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Over (48.0 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 27, 2012 @ 8:05:41 AM EDT
I will keep this analysis short and sweet......this is a bad number moving in the wrong direction. I made the number for this contes 53 and would have considered playing it OVER at that number, so now we gain some serious line value. This has been a very high scoring series the last two seasons as each defense stuggles to stop what the other offense does well. Navy has found it's offensive groove over the last few weeks and I think the winner of this contest will need 34+ points. OVER.
Aloha.
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Matchup: Florida at Georgia
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Georgia (+7 -110)
Line Source: bovada.lv
Posted on: October 26, 2012 @ 3:35:31 AM EDT
No doubt that Florida is rolling and I love their defense and coaching so far this season but eventually the lack of ANY passing game will catch up to them......and I think it does so here, at least as far as the spread is concerned. The Gators have relied on defense and TO's to forge their undefeated record as they rank just 118th in passing yards per game and one dimensional teams can struggle vs well coached, equally talented opponents. Georgia has underperformed for the year but they have the talent to win this game SU and catching a TD, due to performance perceptions, gives us value. Georgia does have a loss but with a win here they will most likely play in the SEC ttile game and have an outside shot at the BCS Championship game, so they will be motivated. Florida has all the pressure and with them in off a tough opponent and Georgia in off a sleepwalk win vs Kentucky, I like the Dawgs as dogs. Grab the points.
Aloha.
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Matchup: Texas A&M at Auburn
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Auburn (+15.5 -110)
Line Source: Coasts
Posted on: October 27, 2012 @ 8:05:41 AM EDT
No doubting that these are two programs seemingly going in opposite directions but the Tigers are not as bad as they've shown and the visiting Bulldogs are overvalued. Auburn has played solidly at home and I expect a top effort from them here with HC Chizik's job likely hinging on the intensity and final score. Texas A&M enters off a physical loss to LSU and now must travel, so the situation favors the home team and the line movement has helped us a bunch. Grab the points.
Aloha.
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Matchup: Oregon State at Washington
Time: 10:15 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Washington (+4 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: October 26, 2012 @ 3:17:32 AM EDT
Very good spot for the Huskies here as Oregon St. has finally made it onto the national radar. I love what the Beavers have brought to the table so far this season and I had a few wagers on them as dogs earlier in the year, when no one was betting them and they were undervalued, but now they've gained notoriety and lost value. The Huskies have been MUCH better at home, beating a good SDSU team, beating #8 Stanford, and covering vs #11 USC despite a -3 in the TO battle. Washington has played an absolutely brutal schedule and it could be argued that the #7 Beavers are just the 5th best team the Huskies have played in 2012, having already faced LSU, Stanford, Oregon, and USC. Oregon St. has gotten the benefit of playing their last two games vs teams starting backup QB's and they still struggle to run the ball. With the Huskies in off a humiliating defeat and the Beavers now installed as conference road favorites, the peak value in this contest is on Washington. I'll grab the points and call the outright upset.
AlohaComment
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brianEdwards's Pick Pack
NCAA Football Saturday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Texas Tech at Kansas State
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Kansas State (-7 -107)
Line Source: Sportbet.com
Posted on: October 25, 2012 @ 6:12:13 PM EDT
Kansas St. is on a serious roll behind the spectacular play of senior quarterback Collin Klein, who has a 10/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has run for 551 yards and 14 TDs. The Wildcats have been nasty in four home games, going 3-1 against the spread with wins over Missouri St. (51-9), Miami (52-13), North Texas (35-21) and Kansas (56-16). Texas Tech is much improved and playing well but it has to travel for a second straight weekend and remember, the Red Raiders played a draining three-overtime slugfest last week before emerging with a 56-53 win at TCU. I think K-St. pulls away in the second half to win by double digits.
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Matchup: Mississippi St at Alabama
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Over (46.0 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: October 25, 2012 @ 11:06:58 PM EDT
Alabama is 14th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 41.0 points per game. The Crimson Tide has one of the country's premier quarterbacks in A.J. McCarron, who has 16 touchdown passes compared to zero interceptions. Mississippi St. hasn't faced a defense in the same league as Alabama's, but it has plenty of playmakers and averages 36.7 PPG. The Bulldogs are getting improved play at the QB position from Tyler Russell, who has a 15/1 TD-INT ratio. I made this total 52. Give me the 'over' with this low number.
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Member Plays
Matchup: Mississippi at Arkansas
Time: 12:20 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Arkansas (-5.5 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: October 22, 2012 @ 5:18:13 PM EDT
I like what Hugh Freeze is doing at Ole Miss, but this is a tough spot for the Rebels. I made Arkansas a 10.5-point favorite in this game and the Hogs are feeling much better about themselves after dealing out woodshed treatment at Auburn and vs. Kentucky. Granted, those are two piss-poor teams, but the Hogs are back into the season from a mental standpoint after a September that couldn't possibly have been scripted any worse. Arkansas still has one of the nation's top QBs in Tyler Wilson and one of the SEC's best WRs in Cobi Hamilton. Now it gets Chris Gragg back from an injury after the open date and the Hogs are finally giving more touches to RB Dennis Johnson who had a pair of outstanding performances against AU and UK. I think this line will get up to at least seven later in the week. I like the single-digit home favorite.
Comment
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Christian Alexander's Pick Pack
NCAA Football Saturday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Texas at Kansas
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Texas (-19 -105)
Line Source: CarbonSports
Posted on: October 26, 2012 @ 11:45:47 AM EDT
UT’s defense has been horrible, however they also just faced the NCAA’s #3, 4, 5 and 17 scoring offenses in concession, and now finally gets a breather from a brutal Big 12 schedule with a road game in Lawrence against the #117 offense in the country. The Longhorns still have a lot of question marks on the defensive side of the ball, but a game against Kansas will be a great chance to figure things out. Meanwhile the Texas offense looks to keep rolling and I look for them to get near the half century mark in this game and despite the poor defense to date I simply don’t think Kansas can score enough points to keep it within the number.
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Matchup: Southern Miss at Rice
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Southern Miss (+3 -115)
Line Source: BetUS.com
Posted on: October 26, 2012 @ 11:45:47 AM EDT
These are two of the worst teams in the country with a combined 2-13 record. Southern Miss is still looking for its first win of the season and I think this is the week they get it. Both teams struggle on defense however SM should be able to move the ball on the ground more effectively in this game. Turnovers have been the main reason SM is winless this year and I think they will be able to limit those this week against a very poor Rice defense. Rice has only beaten Kansas by a point and UTSA at home, both of which are horrible teams. This game will most likely be back and forth throughout the game but I like SM to get their first win of the season in this game.
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Matchup: Florida at Georgia
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Georgia (+7 -110)
Line Source: bovada.lv
Posted on: October 25, 2012 @ 11:05:50 PM EDT
Both these teams have talented defenses that are loaded; however Florida has probably been the most impressive defense in the country so far this year. Offensively however they still have plenty of issues. QB Jeff Driskel, RB Mike Gillislee and the rest of the offense has consistently gotten the job done but in large part thanks to their defense setting up short fields. Georgia on the other hand has enough talent on offense to put some points on the board if it can dominate the line of scrimmage. They have a clear advantage at QB with Murray and will look to run the ball right at the Florida defense. This will be a very hard fought, physical game that will be close throughout. I look for the Florida offense to finally not be able to hold up their end of the deal and Georgia to score just enough points to either win this game outright or keep it close enough to cover the points.
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Matchup: Wash. State at Stanford
Time: 6:15 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Wash. State (+25.5 -110)
Line Source: TopBet.com
Posted on: October 26, 2012 @ 11:45:47 AM EDT
Stanford is clearly the better team here in all phases of the game. However the Cardinal was in dogfights with Arizona and Notre Dame (both going into overtime) and then come in off a tough game against their biggest rival last week. Now they are laying three and a half touchdowns to a team coming in off a bye with nothing to lose. I expect Stanford to run the ball early and often, build a decent size lead and lay off of the gas here just trying to get the win and get out of this game as fast as possible. Meanwhile Leach and company will continue to sling it around the yard and score enough points to keep this one much closer than it should otherwise be.
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Matchup: Syracuse at South Florida
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: South Florida (-2.5 +100)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 25, 2012 @ 11:05:50 PM EDT
Both of these teams have played close games all year and for the most part both of these teams have come out on the wrong end most of the time. Syracuse’s problem has been that they have a one dimension passing attack and thus has a tendency to stall out quite often and that has lead to them being 83rd in the country in points per game as a result. South Florida, on the other hand, has a lot of talent, but has yet to really put it all together. South Florida is simply a more balanced and talented football team and at home the Bulls have been a little tougher. I look for South Florida to put it all together in this game and comfortably cover a small line against a team that seems to find ways to lose games.
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Matchup: Texas A&M at Auburn
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Auburn (+15.5 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: October 25, 2012 @ 11:05:50 PM EDT
Auburn has been a complete disaster this season, partly due to coaching, partly due to talent but also a large part due to their schedule; losing half of their games to the likes of Clemson, Mississippi State and LSU, three very good football teams. Meanwhile A&M has built an impressive record mostly based on beating bad teams, with both of their loses at home against quality opponents. Now they come in off a loss that took a lot out of them and quite frankly showed that Johnny Football is vulnerable in many ways, especially against the speed and talent of an SEC defense. The Aggies have already barely pulled off an SEC road win against an avg opponent when they were hand delivered the game against Ole Miss (a game we were on earlier in the year and won). I look for a still talented Auburn defense to give Manziel trouble on the road in a hostile SEC environment, and Auburn should be able to take advantage of his miscues. While the Tigers may not win at home, they will at least keep in competitive. This line has been bet up on reputation alone with no real merit behind it. I’ll gladly take the inflated points and Auburn to cover this game.
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Matchup: Central Florida at Marshall
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Marshall (+2.5 -105)
Line Source: PinnacleSports
Posted on: October 25, 2012 @ 11:05:50 PM EDT
Central Florida is a talented football team who held their own against Ohio State and Missouri earlier in the year. The Knights have a balanced offensive attack and a defense that has been substantial thus far. However they haven’t faced an offense yet quite the caliber they will see on Saturday. The Thundering Herd are averaging 43 points a game and putting up almost 400 yards in the air alone. The Marshall defense has one job, simply slow done the other teams as best you can and get off the field. The offense of Marshall will take it from there. I look for the Marshall Defense to do just enough to slow down the UCF offense this weekend and allow their offense to take this game over. I like Marshall at home to light up the scoreboard and win a high scoring game over UCF by at least a touchdown.Comment
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Greg Shaker
Utah -1
Good situational contest here for the Utes who have now lost 4 straight game against some Stiff competition with 3 of those being on the road and the one loss at home verses USC. Public Bettors see this as not good of course and because of that we have a significantly lower betting line than we normally would have. The Utes do play a strong defense and especially verses the run. That is going to give the Golden Bears Hell Saturday Nite and the fact is Cal has some injury issues that is going to hamper their effort in stopping Utah on offense. I am not sure if either team is going Bowling and the likelihood of that is not very good, but Utah is not used to being in a 2-5 Situation and my sources say that they will come to play Saturday Nite verses a team they match up very well with. This team put up a strong effort verses USC here, beat a good BYU Squad, and has always had the advantage here in the Mountain Air. That makes my number Utah -3.6 and that is good enough to play for a small stack of pancakes.Comment
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Hollywood Sports
Oregon St. at Washington Huskies
Prediction: Under
The Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 times Oregon State has traveled to Washington -- expect those trends to continue on Saturday. The Beavers (6-0) sport a strong run defense that is 5th in the FBS by limiting teams to just 80.8 rushing YPG. Their starting quarterback Sean Mannion remains questionable for this contest. Oregon State comes off a 21-7 win versus Utah -- and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 20 points or less. The Under is also 20-8-1 in the Beavers' last 29 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 19 games against Pac-12 opponents, 13 of these games have finished Under the Total. Washington (3-4) has lost three in a row after their 52-17 loss at Arizona as an 8.5-point underdog. The Huskies have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Washington allowed 533 yards to the Wildcats -- and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The biggest problem for the Huskies has been a subpar offense that is 103rd in the nation in both scoring (20.7 PPG) and yardage (326.4 YPG). But Washington does boast an outstanding pass defense that is 19th in the FBS by limiting teams to just 184.6 passing YPG. The Huskies have played 5 straight games at home Under the Total. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Washington has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Look for these team trends to continue in this one. Take the Under.Comment
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