11-4-12

[Mr. IWS]

RICH SPORT'S

Play 3 of 5

4 Units Buffalo + 10

Play Buffalo plus the points versus Houston. I see this as a great spot to take the big dog in the NFL as Houston is still riding their high of beating up on the Ravens and have the Bears on deck, no way can they be emotionally into a game against the Bills. The Bills have enough offensive power to be able to hang with the Texans as they are scoring 24.5 PPG, the leagues 12th ranked offense.

Twitter Play Baltimore - 3 bought .5

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso's

100-Unit NFL Blowout Takes Down The Money


Sunday, November 04, 2012

100 Units

Lions (-5½) over Jaguars

1:00 PM -- EverBank Field
NFL Blowout Game of the Week 100 Units Detroit Lions (3-4) -5 ½ over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-6) Prediction: Lions by 17-21 Starting Time: 1:05 TV: FOX Comments: Jacksonville has been blown out in its three home games this season, losing to Houston, 27-7, Cincinnati, 27-10 and Chicago, 43-3, and there is no reason to expect a different result today against a Detroit Lions team that is much better than its record. Detroit has the firepower to crush Jacksonville in this one. The Lions are averaging 407.6 yards of offense and 44.0 points per game while the punchless Jaguars have the worst offense in the NFL, ranking 32nd of 32 teams with an average of just 250.9 yards and 14.7 points per game. Adding to their woes again today will be the absence of superstar running back Maurice Drew-Jones who will again be out with a foot injury. As noted, everything points to a blowout win and it is of no little importance that the offshore books are loaded with money on the Lions who have been bet up from -3 to -5 ½ in most places and even -6 in others.
Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

[Mr. IWS]

Bankroll Sports

2* Panthers @ Redskins Under 48

[Mr. IWS]

JEFF SCOTT SPORTS

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Baltimore -4 over CLEVELAND: The First time these teams met the Ravens had come off a big revenge game with new England and had just 3 days to prepare for Cleveland and their rookie QB. Baltimore won the game but it was by just 7 points as they didn't really show much urgency in the game. This week they take on Cleveland off a bye week (9-1 ATS with rest) and will be ready for a big outing, especially since they were humiliated in their last game before the bye in losing by 30 points to Houston. The Ravens do have injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but Terrell Suggs is back and has had the bye week to prepare for this game. He and his mates should harass this rookie QB into making some costly mistakes. The Cleveland offense is weak at number 29 overall and they are 19th in passing, with Weedon having just a 70.8 passer rating. He will struggle once again in this one. The Cleveland defense has not been hat solid ranking 26th overall, while allowing 23.2 ppg (19th). Last week they did hold SD to just 2 FG's but the weather had allot to do with that as well. The Cleveland defense is 25th vs the pass and will be taking on a Ravens no-huddle attack that ranks 13th in passing, putting up 251 ypg. Cleveland also hasn't had their week off yet so they may be a bit tired at this point in the season and facing a no-huddle attack is not the best thing for them to be facing here. Baltimore has taken the last 9 in the series, winning all 9 by at least 6 points and I expect them to go a little further in this one as I look for them to take it by 2 TD's.

7 POINT POWER TEASER OF THE WEEK--- Dallas +10.5 & Pittsburgh +10

3 UNIT PLAY

Carolina/ Washington Over 48: This game should be an old fashion shootout. Here we have two of the better mobile and exciting QB's in the league, going up against a couple a couple of defenses that have been struggling and have been hit hard by injuries this year. The Washington defense has been horrible all year as they have allowed 406.4 ypg and 28.4 ppg. The Skins are dead last in the league vs the pass and that should allow Cam Newton to have one of his better games of the year. The Panthers average 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which is 5th in the league, while the Skins allow 7.6 ypa (26th) so you can bet that they will get some big plays down field. On the other side of the ball the Carolina defense is middle of the pack, but this Washington offense is very good and can score points in bunches. Washington is 6th in total offense (387.4 ypg) and 2nd in rushing (167.6 ypg) and that running game will only set up some big plays for RG3 to make down field. Washington is 20th in the league in passing, but they are 4th in ypa (7.5 and will be facing a Carolina defense that allows 6.8 ypa (20th), so Washington should also get some big plays in the passing game in this one. This one should be fun as these teams combine for around 55 points.

7 POINT TEASER--- Cincinnati +11 & Houston -3.5

2 UNIT PLAY

SEATTLE -4 over Minnesota

1 UNIT PLAY

CINCINNATI +4 over Denver

[Mr. IWS]

5Lines


Total Line for 11/04/2012
(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Los Angeles Lakers : u191
Cost: -110

Run Line for 11/04/2012
(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Los Angeles Lakers : -8
Cost: -110

[Mr. IWS]

Andy Iskoe @ Gaming Today

Sunday, Nov. 4

Broncos -3½ at Bengals (47): The Broncos have not fared well on the road aside from San Diego’s implosion a couple of Monday nights ago, Denver’s lone road win in three tries. The Bengals return from their Bye riding a three-game losing streak that followed a 3-1 start. The losses were competitive and getting at least a FG at home makes them an attractive take. BENGALS.

Cards +10 at Packers (44): Arizona is off of Monday night’s game against division rival San Francisco hoping to have ended a 3-game losing streak that followed a 4-0 start. Green Bay is off of an uninspired effort against lowly Jacksonville that resulted in a non-covering 24-15 win. Arizona’s strength is its defense but offense is limited. Green Bay’s defense is above average . UNDER.

Dolphins -2½ at Colts (43): Miami QB Ryan Tannehill was injured against the Jets and his status for this game is questionable. Veteran Matt Moore filled in well. The teams have similar statistical profiles in many key areas but the Colts’ major shortcoming is a defense that has forced just 3 turnovers, last in the league. They do defend the pass well, not a strength of the Miami offense. COLTS.

Ravens -3½ at Browns (42): Cleveland has won two of its last three after an 0-5 start. One of those losses was a 23-16 loss at the Ravens in which the Ravens’ play can best be described as listless. Baltimore is off of a Bye that followed a 43-13 loss at Houston. We can expect adjustments to have been made. Baltimore has now won 9 in a row over the Browns with all wins by at least 6. RAVENS.

Bills +10½ at Texans (47): Both teams return from Byes. Buffalo has lost 3 of its last 4 games Houston rebounded from its loss to Green Bay with a 30 point pummeling of injury depleted Baltimore. The Texans’ defense remains one of the top ones in the league and the offense is the best in the NFL in avoiding turnovers. TEXANS.

Panthers +4 at Redskins (46): Carolina played well in defeat at Chicago last week but the loss dropped the Panthers to 1-6. In a matchup of the last two Heisman Trophy winners, the Skins Robert Griffin III is enjoying a much better season than Carolina’s Cam Newton. Washington has both the better rushing offense and rushing defense. REDSKINS.

Lions -4 at Jaguars (44): Detroit at 3-4 still plays undisciplined football which makes laying points, especially on the road, extremely risky. Jacksonville played well in losing at Green Bay as QB Blaine Gabbert performed well despite the absence of star RB Maurice Jones-Drew. They still have the league’s last ranked offense but may benefit from poor Detroit special teams play. JAGUARS.

Bears -3½ at Titans (43½): They Bears lead the league in forcing 3.3 turnovers per game. The Titans rank next to last in scoring defense, allowing 32 points per game. The Bears have won their last two road games by 16 at Dallas and 38 at Jacksonville. This may not be a blowout. but the Chicago offense should get healthy here. BEARS.

Vikings +5 at Seahawks (39½): Minnesota has had extra rest to recover from their 36-17 home loss to Tampa Bay last Thursday while Seattle returns home after losing 28-24 virtually at the final gun in Detroit. Both offenses rank in the top 10 in rushing offense and in the bottom 10 in pass offense. UNDER.

Bucs +2 at Raiders (45): Oakland has the edge in the passing game. Tampa Bay has performed better overall and that is partially reflected in their +4.4 points per game margin. Oakland’s margin is minus 6.8 ppg. Tampa has also played a more challenging schedule and is more than capable of pulling the outright upset. RAYS.

Steelers +3½ at Giants (47): Both teams are playing well. The Giants have won 4 straight and the Steelers have won their last 2. The Giants do not perform as well at home ATS as they do on the road. Pittsburgh has played high scoring games on the road over the past few seasons and the Giants rank third to last in allowing 6.2 yards per play. OVER .

Cowboys +4½ at Falcons (52½): Dallas continues to have a solid statistical profile, ranking in the top 7 in both total offense and defense. But they are second to last in losing turnovers and Atlanta has an aggressive defense, especially at home. When it comes time for a big play to be made, there is greater confidence that it will be made by the Falcons rather than by the Cowboys. FALCONS.

[Mr. IWS]

Dennis Ball @ Gaming Today

Sunday, Nov. 4

Broncos -4 at Bengals: Peyton Manning’s hard work in the off season with his receivers is starting to pay off. Manning, Decker, Thomas & Co. are beginning to look like they’ve been working together for a few years instead of months. Cincy received an extra week of rest and plenty of time to prepare for this “must win” home game. The Bengals desperately need to stay within striking distance of Pittsburgh which is ready to run away with the division. Manning’s thumb injury is an issue. BENGALS.

Cards +10 at Packers: Green Bay should have had little trouble beating the Jags by double digits, but didn’t. Arizona is working off a short week after Monday night affair with the Niners. The double digit point spread is a big concern, especially with the uncertainty of Jordy Nelson at press time. CARDS.

Dolphins -2 ½ at Colts: Both teams are over .500 going into week 9! Who would have thunk it? The Colts have won two straight. The win over the Titans was a great comeback. Luck engineered two 80 yard drives to pull the win out in OT. The victory over the Browns the week before was only because Josh Gordon dropped a potential game winning TD pass. Fish have won three in a row and will find a way to pull off their fourth at Indy. DOLPHINS.

Ravens -3½ at Browns: Ravens haven’t played a great road game yet this season. Baltimore is coming off a bye week, but has several injuries to be concerned about. Browns nearly upset them in Baltimore and now get another chance in front of the home town folks who have been treated to two consecutive home wins. Could this be number three? Watch out for the home puppy! BROWNS.

Bills +10 at Texans: Houston has covered five of seven point spreads. In four of their games they’ve crushed their opponent by 20 points or more. I believe this game sets up very well for another big cover. TEXANS.

Panthers +4 at Skins: Cam must have been listening to all the chatter about his pathetic body language and poor choice of words. Newton actually handled himself well in the post game press conference last Sunday despite the Panthers losing by a point to the Bears. Carolina led by 12 in the fourth quarter! The Bears needed a shanked punt and a receiver to slip and fall so they could return an INT for a TD to pull it out. Panthers should improve against this week. Steelers gave Carolina the blue print to containing RG III. Skins hurting with several key defenders out. PANTHERS.

Lions -3½ at Jaguars: I’m going with the hot hand. The Lions have won two of their last three and have been the money winners in all three! LIONS.

Bears -3½ at Titans: Chicago has won four straight. Da Bears are not to be messed with right now. They’re even winning games they don’t deserve, like the comeback they managed over the Panthers. Titans’ two-game winning streak may have been a tease. There’s no way they shouldn’t have put the Colts away. Indy simply had more grit and determination. I’m betting on Da Bears and against the one showing very little heart last week. BEARS.

Vikings +4 at Seahawks: After a quick start, the Vikes are starting to stumble. The Bucs hammered them on their own turf last Thursday night. Now the Vikes have to go on the road where the Seahawks play some of the nastiest defense the NFL has to offer. I believe Seattle will harass Christian Ponder all day and limit the great Adrian Peterson to a mediocre day. SEAHAWKS.

Bucs +2½ at Raiders: There’s no doubt Schiano has changed the culture at Tampa Bay. This team played hard-nosed right from opening day and lost more than a few close games. Now the Bucs have won two of their last three and the new culture is starting to have an effect on the win column. The Raiders have won two straight, but they shouldn’t start printing playoff tickets just yet. Before we get too excited about Oakland, the wins were over the Jags and Chiefs. BUCS.

Steelers +3½ at Giants: Pittsburgh has won three of their last four. The Steelers are definitely rounding into shape as we head into November. The G-men have clicked off four straight victories and that can mean only one thing. They’re due for a clunker at home. The hook looks like a “giant” cover factor! STEELERS.

Cowboys +5 at Falcons: Atlanta came out of the gate strong with Matty Ice, Julio Jones and Roddy White all on the same page, firing on all cylinders. The Cowboys on the other hand came out unprepared for situational football and have continued to under-perform. I think this game will go the way the last two Cowboys losses did. Dallas will drop a close one because of clock management or miscommunication between Romo and his receivers. COWBOYS.

[Mr. IWS]

NFL Jack Jones

Nov 04 '12
2:00p

Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers
Take: Arizona Cardinals +11-107



in 1d



15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +11

The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the league. Their stop unit has given up 24 or less points in 17 straight games dating back to last season. They are giving up just 17.7 points per game this season. They rank 6th in the league in total defense, allowing a mere 312.9 yards per game. This stop unit is capable of keeping them in every ball game.

Arizona’s strength defensively is a pass defense that ranks 4th in the league allowing just 192.9 passing yards per game. Green Bay’s strength is a passing offense that ranks 12th in the league at 254.5 yards per game through the air. The Cardinals figure to be able to keep Aaron Rodgers in check.

That’s especially the case considering Rodgers will likely be without his top two receivers for a second straight week. Both Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings missed the Jacksonville game last week, and the Packers really struggled to put the Jaguars away, eventually earning an ugly 24-15 home victory. Jennings (groin) is out for sure, while Nelson (hamstring) is doubtful.

This play falls into a system that is 70-33 (68%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.

The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.






Sport

Date

Matchup

Book

Starts



NFL

Nov 04 '12
2:00p

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans
Take: Houston Texans -10-108



in 1d



15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans -10

Houston has arguably been the best team in the league this season. The Texans own the second-best record in the NFL and have been absolutely rolling teams along the way. They already have four wins by 20 points or more, including a 43-13 home victory over Baltimore last time out in Week 8. They are outscoring opponents 30.9 to 18.3, or by an average of 12.6 points per game.

The Texans are dominant on both sides of the ball as they have little to no weaknesses. They rank 9th in the league in total offense (371.4 yards/game) behind a balanced attack that averages 140.9 yards on the ground and 230.6 through the air. They are 3rd in the league in total defense at 283.0 yards per game allowed, proving that their No. 2 finish last season was no fluke.

Buffalo hasn’t been able to stop anyone this season. It is giving up 32.4 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 424.1 yards per game allowed. It ranks dead last against the run, giving up 176.9 yards per game on the ground. That’s not good news considering the Bills will be up against one of the top rushers in the league in Arian Foster.

Houston is 8-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 15.9 points per game. Buffalo is 5-15 against the spread in its last 20 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow less than 285 total yards per game. Bet the Texans Sunday.






Sport

Date

Matchup

Book

Starts



NFL

Nov 04 '12
5:05p

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks
Take: Minnesota Vikings +5-106



in 1d



15* Vikings/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +5

The Vikings are getting some extra rest coming into this one, and they certainly need it to regroup and refocus after a 17-36 home loss to the Bucs last Thursday. They will be on three extra days of rest, which will make their trip out West a lot less of a distraction than it normally would be. It has given Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Antoine Winfield and Mistral Raymond more time to recover from minor injuries.

Peterson has amazingly returned from a knee injury to lead the league in rushing this season with 775 yards and four touchdowns. Harvin is one of the most electrifying players in the league with what he does on offense and special teams. He ranks 5th in the league in receiving with 60 grabs for 667 yards and three touchdowns. With these two playmakers on Minnesota’s side, this is certainly a team that is dangerous offensively.

Catching five points is simply too many considering Seattle has one of the worst offenses in the league. It is scoring just 17.5 points while ranking 30th in the league in total offense at 303.0 yards per game. Minnesota has been much better at 23.0 points and 339.9 total yards per game offensively. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings rank a very solid 11th in total defense at 331.7 yards per game allowed.

This play falls into a system that is 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SEATTLE) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in November games.

Seattle is 31-54 against the spread in its last 85 vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better. Christian Ponder is completing over 65 percent of his passes this season as he’s having a solid sophomore campaign. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the Vikings Sunday.


-= TOP PLAY =-



Sport

Date

Matchup

Book

Starts



NFL

Nov 04 '12
5:25p

Pittsburgh Steelers vs NY Giants
Take: Pittsburgh Steelers +3½-115



in 1d



25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5

While the Steelers do have three losses on the season, they really gave those games away. They held fourth quarter leads against the Broncos, Titans and Raiders and managed to let them slip away. Pittsburgh is really looking for a statement win, and it will be highly motivated when it goes into New York Sunday against the defending champs.

Pittsburgh may be a bit banged up, but it is playing its best football of the season right now. After a 24-17 road win at Cincinnati in Week 7, the Steelers came back with a 27-12 home victory over the Washington Redskins in arguably their most complete game of the season last Sunday. They limited Robert Griffin III and Washington’s high-powered offense to just 255 total yards.

In fact, the Steelers may be playing as well as they ever have on defense this season even without Polamalu, which is certainly saying something. Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in the league in total defense (274.1 yards/game). Meanwhile, the Giants are hemorrhaging yards, ranking 24th in the league in total defense (386.5 yards/game).

Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s 10th ranked offense (369.9 yards/game) should have its way with New York’s stop unit. The Giants are giving up 27.0 points per game at home this year. New York has won its last two games against Washington and Dallas by a combined 9 points. The Cowboys and Redskins combined for 10 turnovers in those two games, and the Giants still nearly lost each. Pittsburgh won't be giving New York any gifts in this one.

The Steelers are 34-15 ATS in their last 49 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or greater. Pittsburgh is 42-18 ATS in its last 60 games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt. The Giants are 17-38-2 ATS in their last 57 November games.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against home teams (NY GIANTS) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers. The Giants aren't as good as their record, while the Steelers are better than a 3-loss team, and that will show on the field this weekend. Bet Pittsburgh Sunday.

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast

3'* Houston -10.5
3* Detroit -6
3* Denver -5

Top Opinions
Chicago -3.5
Dallas +3.5
Seattle -4
Tampa Bay +2
Cleveland +4

[Mr. IWS]

StraightUPWinners Sharp - Ivan LaFlare
Sports Picks, November 4, 2012

Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts 4pm
4 stacks Under 43.5 @ 5dimes

Tannehill for the Miami Dolpins and Luck for the Colts. Both of these guys have completed less than 60% of their passes. Neither of these guys have a lot of weapons. This is going to be a slow pace game. These two teams are both bottom part of the league in plays of more than 40+ yards. It's about ball control and about defense. This total is the average points scored per game in the NFL last year. That's ridiculous with two Rookie Qb's! Colts average 19.4 ppg, 24th in the league. Miami is slightly better at 21.4 ppg, 19th in the league. These teams could meet their season averages and still be under this total. Lets take this ridiculous total and make some money.

[Mr. IWS]

Andrew Lange nfl

20* colts+2
10* redskins over 47.5

[Mr. IWS]

goodfella

3* indy

[Mr. IWS]

underdog
tampa bay

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

GOY Seahawks

[Mr. IWS]

Demarco 15 - Ravens