11-8-12

[DaKid]

Trace Adams


1500♦
Thursday Lead Pipe Lock
Winner #45 of 69
Virginia Tech Hokies +14



PAY-AFTER-YOU-WIN
500♦ Thursday Night TOTAL
Indianapolis-Jacksonville UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner

NFL PRIME-TIME 3* BOOKIE BET BOMB


JAGUARS +3.5....(3*)


TRUE-LINE = IND -1.5


PLEASE...WAIT until closer to kick-off for an even better price on JAX..Bodog is serving up +4 and a handful of local outs I use gave me the same. There is no reason you shouldn't get down at +4 or better..





Bottom line, this is a perfect example of a team being over-valued and more importantly the oddsmakers over-inflated the price in an attempt to protect the bookmakers who got completely DESTROYED last Sunday when all those Favs got the money. In fact if you take a look at this week's NFL board you will find that there are plenty of lines that have been hung up over-inflated and I am looking forward to taking advantage..


Although the Colts have over-achieved this season, they now find themselves in a position that's uncalled for..being a ROAD FAVORITE against a team that's not only had plenty of succes against them historically, but has already beaten them this season.


Thursday games mean a quick turn-around and home teams have an even bigger edge than usual and in this case, we have a Colts team that comes in off 3 very tough games that they were able to come out on top in. Since 2000, only 11 teams have lost their first 5 home games of the season and I do believe Jax will be up for this one in front of a national audience, especially after being embarrassed last week at home. Prior to that they played very well against the Packers and Oakland on the road and my numbers reflect they should be able to keep this one very close, and be in a position to win the game outright.

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso's
Thursday, November 08, 2012
ACC Game of the Week

50 Units

Virginia Tech (+13.5) over Florida State
7:30 PM -- Lane Stadium/Worsham Field
VIRGINIA TECH (4-5) +13 ½ over Florida State (8-1) Prediction: Florida State by 6-7 Played in Blacksburg, Virginia Played at Lane Stadium (66,233) Grass Weather: Clear, game-time temperature in the 30s, 49% relative humidity and wind out of the west-northwest at 7 miles per hour. Starting Time: 7:35 TV: ESPN
There comes a time in every under-achieving team’s season that it seeks redemption for its unexpected failures and I have a gut feeling this will be just such a night for Virginia Tech, which was nationally-ranked when the season began. Whether the Hokies can get the actual win remains to be seen but I do believe they will take Florida State, which suffered its only loss this season, at N.C. State, 17-16, as a 17-point favorite, to the money tonight. There is no question Florida State has an edge in talent, speed and quickness but a motivated Virginia Tech team with one of the strongest home field bias figures in the country, is a very dangerous opponent. Virginia Tech is 4-0 in Blacksburg this season and 56-8 there over the past 10 years. Virginia Tech has been a home underdog but three times in the past 11 seasons and it won all three games straight up, and by big margins. The last time Tech was a home ‘dog was in the fourth game of the 2009 season and in that game, as a 2 ½-point underdog to Miami, won, 31-7. I rest my case.
Clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40.

NFL Total of the Week
25 Units

Colts/Jaguars UNDER 42.5 Points
8:20 PM -- EverBank Field
NFL Total Of The Week Indianapolis Colts (5-3) –JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-7) Under 42½ Prediction: 39 or less points will be scored Starting Time: 8:25 TV: NFL Network
The first time these teams played this season Jacksonville got its only win, 22-17, in Indianapolis in a game where the total was 42. For two basic reasons everything points to the “under” in this game. First of all, the surprising Colts themselves have figured out they have a chance to make the playoffs and because of this have become rather conservative offensively in their last three games, playing at a low-risk level that reduces the chance for game-changing turnovers. In their last three games, all wins and covers, Indianapolis has averaged 19.67 points on offense while giving up an average of just 15.3 points. Each of those games have gone “under” the number. Now factor into the equation the offensive ineptness of the Jaguars and the “under” grades out as a standout play. Jacksonville has averaged an NFL worst 291.1 yards and 14.6 points per game this season. The Jaguars have not scored two touchdowns in any game this season and showed just how futile their offense was last week against the Detroit Lions when, in the first half, they gained 26 yards on 14 plays and were forced to punt four times. It has been a long time since I have seen an NFL offense this bad and it will not surprise me if the Colts pitch a shutout.
Clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around

2012 Chairman's Club Football
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Best Bets Club

10 Units
Arkansas State (-7) over ULMonroe
7:00 PM -- ASU Stadium

ARKANSAS STATE (6-3) -7 over LA-Monroe (6-3) Prediction: Arkansas State by 13-14 Played in Jonesboro, Arkansas Played at ASU Stadium (30,406) Artificial Turf Weather: Clear, game-time temperature in 40s, relative humidity 59% and wind out of the south-southeast at 5 miles per hour. Starting Time: 7:05 TV: ESPNU LA-Monroe was on its way to an outstanding football season after opening with a 34-31 win at Arkansas and with close losses at Auburn, 31-28, in overtime and to Baylor, 47-42. After the Baylor game it was five straight victories—and then the bottom fell out. The Warhawks starting running back Jyruss Edwards broke his arm and was lost for the season and, then, last week quarterback Kolton Browning went down with a severe foot injury. That means LA-Monroe goes into this Sun Belt Conference game crippled—and it is facing an Arkansas State team that is better than its record and is right now playing as well as any of the 120 NCAA I-A teams. Arkansas State has won its last four games in impressive fashion and the figures say tonight it will play its best game of the season. The Red Wolves are led by senior quarterback Ryan Alpin who is the Sun Belt all-time total offense leader with 10,365 yards. He also is the second-ranked passer in conference history 9,604 yards and third in touchdown passes with 57. Right now, he holds 21 school passing records and obviously gives Arkansas State a potent offense that is going to score against anybody. A strong supporting cast has enabled ASU to average 6.2 yards per play and 460.1 yards per game—both school records—this season. With all due respect to LA-Monroe I cannot see anyway it can keep up with Alpin and Arkansas State without its two best offensive players.
Clear. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Near 50

[DaKid]

T. C0VERS 10* NBA Play
OKC Thunder

[DaKid]

Northcoast

Marquee - Florida ST -13.5

Reg opinion - Indy -3 or 3.5

[DaKid]

Wunderdog 2 units Indianapolis -175 money line

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
4-Unit Play. #704. Take Portland Trailblazers +1.5 over LA Clippers (Thursday @ 10:35pm est).

The Trailblazers come off an ugly loss against the Mavericks losing 91-114. For a team that was playing well, getting hammered in Dallas is no fun. Now they return home where they beat the likes of the Lakers by 10. This team has yet to lose back to back games in this young season and they have a great backcourt with Matthews and Lillard. The Rookie from Weber State has played well this year so far and with this Blazer team with new coaching staff coming off their biggest loss of the year (by 23 points), this is a good opportunity to step up at home. And, with the Clippers getting big revenge against the Spurs coming off a 22 point win at home, they might not have the same edge as if they were coming off a loss such as the Blazers. Small public fade here which is not bad, the last game to go off the board as well, note that the Clippers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games when facing a team with a winning home record and the 4-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss of late as well.

[DaKid]

NBA TNT Thursday Night Card - Andre Gomes


Andre Gomes | NBA Total Thu, 11/08/12 - 8:05 PM
dime bet 701 OKL / 702 CHI Under 190.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
NBA - 701 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 702 Chicago Bulls


Projected Line: 187 points


Even though Chicago is 3-1 right now, they are yet to face a top team this season. They faced Sacramento, Cleveland, New Orleans and Orlando, four teams that won't be on the playoffs this season. Even with this easy schedule, Chicago has struggled to be consistent on offense, especially when they face teams with a powerful frontcourt that are able to limit Carlos Boozer. Even against an undersized team of the Magic, Chicago couldn't have a proper ball movement to pound Orlando down low and they finished the game with just 34 points in the paint and shooting 14-23 FG at the rim. In fact, the team needed a red hot Nate Robinson to spark the offense down the stretch on the 4th quarter and as a team, they took a ton of outside shots! It's nice to shoot 18-36 FG from 16-23 feet like they did against Orlando, but it's very tough for them to be consistent from this range and in fact, on their previous game against the Hornets, they had shot just 5-22 FG from this area.


Oklahoma City has just had one poor defensive game against Atlanta, but they clearly overlooked the Hawks, who were playing without Josh Smith. The Thunder have been allowing their opponents to have the following offensive rates this season: 96.28, 95.30, 119.31 and 88.14. If we exclude the game against Atlanta, they have been great on defense! Oklahoma City have a frontcourt with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins, who are able to physically hang with Chicago's frontcourt. Meanwhile, Luol Deng is one of the best defensive Small Forwards of the league and so, Kevin Durant won't have an easy task tonight.


In contrast to their offensive problems, Chicago has probably the best defense in the league. They keep struggling a bit in stopping the opposing guards from penetrating into the basket because Richard Hamilton, Marco Belinelli and Nate Robinson aren't good individual defenders, however their team help defense provided by the frontcourt players is phenomenal! The result of that has been the interior players having to step up and often out of posi¼tion in order to rebound. The Bulls have made up for it with terrific hustle, especially from Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Luol Deng. Oklahoma City is still looking for a new offensive identity without James Harden in terms of ball handling. That's why they have committed 18, 12, 21 and 19 turnovers on their first four games of the season!


Russell Westbrook is banged up with a shoulder injury and Kirk Hinrich is also a good defensive player and therefore, both defenses will have a good edge tonight over both offenses. I expect a half court game in here, where every single shot will be contested. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker


Andre Gomes | NBA Total Thu, 11/08/12 - 10:35 PM
double-dime bet 703 LAC / 704 POR Over 201.0 5dimes
Analysis:
NBA - 703 Los Angeles Clippers @ 704 Portland Trailblazers


Projected Line: 208 points


***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***


Unlike the other game of the day, we are in here in front of two teams, where both offenses will have a considerable edge over the opposing defense, on a game that will also have a quite fast pace. One of the plays we lost yesterday agaiºnst the Over in the game between the Clippers and San Antonio. But that loss wasn't due to a poor offensive game from the Clippers, as they scored 106 points, while shooting 55.6% FG and having 24 fast break points and 54 points in the paint. None of their starters played for more than 30 minutes and our problem was indeed a rare bad offensive game from the Spurs, as Tim Duncan shot 3-8 FG, Tony Parker 2-7 FG and Manu Ginobili 2-8 FG!


Even though the starters were saved a bit yesterday due to a blowout win, the Clippers aren't on a good spot, as they will play a back to back game on the road, who will also be their 5th game in just 7 days! Portland's gameplan will definitely try to take advantage of that and push the pace as much as they can. They have curiously tried that once this season, with the Lakers playing at Portland, after having faced Dallas at home the night before, and that was the fastest pace game of Portland this season. So, the Blazers will try to do the same thing tonight: they will try to run the Clippers out of the gym.


Looking at the matchups, the Clippers' defense will explore Portland's biggest weakness this season. From what I've already watched this season, Portland has some evident issues in the lack of a true center, Damian Lillard also can't defend well and the team has problems in defending transition plays. With their starting PG struggling on defense and their lack of a true center, Portland has a bad pick and roll ball handler defense, as according to mysenergy, they are just #26 in the league in defending this kind of play by allowing 0.92 PPP (Points Per Possession)! So, this is a great matchup for Chris Paul to crush the Blazers with pick and rolls, as not surprisingly, the Clippers is already #1 in the league on pick and roll offense this season with 0.99 PPP!


After allowing just 6 fast break points to the Lakers, a half court team, Portland's poor transition defense was completely exposed in their three following games, where they allowed 23, 18 and 24 fast break points. Their advanced stats also don't lie, as they are #25 on transition defense by allowing 1.24 PPP! On the other hand, the Clippers with their new playing style are crushing the opponents with fast break points and they lead the league on this stat with 21.4 fast break points per game! So, the Clippers will crush Portland tonight by taking advantage of these two clear flaws that the Blazers have on their defense.


On the other side, the Clippers' defense also have some clear flaws that are quite visible at their worst. The truth is that the Clippers turned the ball over too much, gave up way too many offensive rebounds and they also did a poor job defending the three point line. In fact, the Clippers allowed at least 16 offensive rebounds in three of their first five games of the season! That's bad news for them, as Portland has been a very good team in grabbing offensive rebounds on this early season, including a 23 offensive rebounds mark against Dallas on their last game! The Clippers frontcourt gambles too much and they are consistently caught off position and they get torched by the opposing guards' penetrations. Damian Lillard is being the best rookie on the NBA so far and the truth is that Portland is #3 on the league on pick and roll ball handler with 0.93 PPP! LaMarcus Aldridge is a tough matchup for Blake Griffin due to his size and range, while JJ Hickson loves to play against DeAndre Jordan, as he has scored 27, 28 and 29 points on three of his four games against the Clippers!


Portland also had three nice outside shooting games to start the season with 9-20, 9-26 and 10-24 3pts! But they struggled against Dallas with just 5-22 3pts. I believe that was just due to the fact that they had no fresh legs to score efficiently, as they were coming from a back to back game, with the game on the previous game in Houston going to overtime, with four of their starters playing at least 42 minutes! With Portland's gameplan in pushing up the pace to worn out the Clippers and with this new style from the LA team, I expect both offenses to have a considerable edge on the key areas and therefore, I expect this game to become a shootout! Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!


Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

[DaKid]

THURS NIGHT 3* PRIME-TIME FB BOMB - vegas-runner




vegas-runner | NFL Side Thu, 11/08/12 - 8:25 PM
triple-dime bet 106 JAC 3.5 (-110) bodog vs 105 IND
Analysis:


*** NFL PRIME-TIME 3* BOOKIE BET BOMB ***


JAGUARS +3.5....(3*)


TRUE-LINE = IND -1.5


PLEASE...WAIT until closer to kick-off for an even better price on JAX..Bodog is serving up +4 and a handful of local outs I use gave me the same. There is no reason you shouldn't get down at +4 or better..





Bottom line, this is a perfect example of a team being over-valued and more importantly the oddsmakers over-inflated the price in an attempt to protect the bookmakers who got completely DESTROYED last Sunday when all those Favs got the money. In fact if you take a look at this week's NFL board you will find that there are plenty of lines that have been hung up over-inflated and I am looking forward to taking advantage..


Although the Colts have over-achieved this season, they now find themselves in a position that's uncalled for..being a ROAD FAVORITE against a team that's not only had plenty of succes against them historically, but has already beaten them this season.


Thursday games mean a quick turn-around a»nd home teams have an even bigger edge than usual and in this case, we have a Colts team that comes in off 3 very tough games that they were able to come out on top in. Since 2000, only 11 teams have lost their first 5 home games of the season and I do believe Jax will be up for this one in front of a national audience, especially after being embarrassed last week at home. Prior to that they played very well against the Packers and Oakland on the road and my numbers reflect they should be able to keep this one very close, and be in a position to win the game outright.


Bonus TOTAL Lean : OVER


With the wiseguys steaming the OVER according to "movers" we have access too..the line has been adjusted above that key number of 42. I was hoping public money would have driven it the other way because based on my own True Line, this came very close to being a Premium Play and may very well end up one by kick-off...But at the very least, I'll be using it in exotics, including TEASING it w/ JAX +11 and OVER 35.5...VR

[DaKid]

THURS NIGHT 3* PRIME-TIME FB BOMB - vegas-runner




vegas-runner | NFL Side Thu, 11/08/12 - 8:25 PM
triple-dime bet 106 JAC 3.5 (-110) bodog vs 105 IND
Analysis:


*** NFL PRIME-TIME 3* BOOKIE BET BOMB ***


JAGUARS +3.5....(3*)


TRUE-LINE = IND -1.5


PLEASE...WAIT until closer to kick-off for an even better price on JAX..Bodog is serving up +4 and a handful of local outs I use gave me the same. There is no reason you shouldn't get down at +4 or better..





Bottom line, this is a perfect example of a team being over-valued and more importantly the oddsmakers over-inflated the price in an attempt to protect the bookmakers who got completely DESTROYED last Sunday when all those Favs got the money. In fact if you take a look at this week's NFL board you will find that there are plenty of lines that have been hung up over-inflated and I am looking forward to taking advantage..


Although the Colts have over-achieved this season, they now find themselves in a position that's uncalled for..being a ROAD FAVORITE against a team that's not only had plenty of succes against them historically, but has already beaten them this season.


Thursday games mean a quick turn-around a»nd home teams have an even bigger edge than usual and in this case, we have a Colts team that comes in off 3 very tough games that they were able to come out on top in. Since 2000, only 11 teams have lost their first 5 home games of the season and I do believe Jax will be up for this one in front of a national audience, especially after being embarrassed last week at home. Prior to that they played very well against the Packers and Oakland on the road and my numbers reflect they should be able to keep this one very close, and be in a position to win the game outright.


Bonus TOTAL Lean : OVER


With the wiseguys steaming the OVER according to "movers" we have access too..the line has been adjusted above that key number of 42. I was hoping public money would have driven it the other way because based on my own True Line, this came very close to being a Premium Play and may very well end up one by kick-off...But at the very least, I'll be using it in exotics, including TEASING it w/ JAX +11 and OVER 35.5...VR

[DaKid]

JR ODonnell | NFL Side Thu, 11/08/12 - 8:25 PM
triple-dime bet 105 IND -3.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 106 JAC
Analysis:


We feel the " Indy Colts" roll the Jax Jags tonight... The 2 best players wear the Colts Jerseys tonight A Luck and WR Reggie Wayne (#1 NFL in receiving yards), and a #1 ranked passing & #25 run defense compared to the Jags #25 passing "D" & #27 rushing "D"! Jags average only 14.6 ppg which is "DEAD" Last in the League... Power rated @ - 7.0 flat Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.


19-10 final....





INDY COLTS -3

[DaKid]

HARRY BONDI
Thursday, Nov. 8th

College Football

FLORIDA STATE (-13.5) over Virginia Tech
7:30 p.m. -- ESPN
Our FREE PICK selection got back on track last night with an easy winner on Bowling Green, improving the record to 44-25 (64%) since September 1st.
Expect a fully focused effort tonight from the Seminoles, who come in fresh off a bye week and need victories in their final two conference games to punch a ticket to the ACC championship game and their first BCS bowl invite in seven years. Virginia Tech will be overpowered on both sides of the ball as FSU is the only team in the country ranked in the Top-10 in the nation for both offense and defense. The Hokies have been a money-eater dating back a couple of seasons covering just five of their last 21 games overall, while going 2-8 ATS at home in their last 10 and 1-5 ATS in their last six against winning teams. Seminoles roll!

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

JACKSONVILLE +3 +106 over Indianapolis
Nothing like Thursday night football featuring the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tongue removed from cheek, it’s not easy to make a case for this host as they have yet to win here in four tries and have not come within 17 points of a guest. However, Jacksonville’s only win of the year took place in Indianapolis on a late Cecil Shorts touchdown. The Colts were a 3-point choice in that one and now they are the same 3-points as visitors?

Andrew Luck and Colts playing well but this is still a divisional home game on a short week. It’s also sandwiched between last week’s come from behind win over Miami and next week’s huge game in New England. The win over the Dolphins last week was followed by one of the most documented and emotionally charged speeches of the season by head man, Chuck Spagano. In his first return to the stadium since being diagnosed with leukemia, the entire Colts team played their hearts out for him. This is a big letdown spot and indicators suggest we go against the flow here. No units risked.

[DaKid]

Goodfella 2* Portland +1

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

VIRGINIA TECH +13½ -108 over Florida State
Prior to Week 3, the Hokies were ranked #13 and were a 10-point road choice at Pittsburgh. They lost that game 35-17 and it’s been a train wreck ever since. This game tonight was projected to be one of the marquee games of the year for both squads but as it turns out, the Hokies are playing for a little salvation only and believe it or not, if this game were scheduled for Week 3, Virginia Tech likely would’ve been favored. In other words, the Hokies stock has hit rock bottom but let’s not ignore that they’re 4-0 at home and their front four figured to be one of the best in the country.

The Seminoles signature win came against Clemson but other than that it’s been a weak schedule with wins against Wake Forest, Murray St., Savannah St., South Florida, Boston College, Miami and Duke. FSU lost to North Carolina State. As a result of this marshmallow schedule, ‘Noles QB EJ Manual has posted some big numbers but it’s not that believable. State also coughed up the football 10 times over its last two games and although they won both times, they may not be so lucky at Lane Stadium. Manuel will see a heavy dose of pressure from this undervalued defense that was projected to be a top five unit. In the end, FSU represents the Hokies' chance at redemption and the Seminoles figure to get Virginia Tech's best shot. Expect this one to be scary close with an upset possibility.

Our Pick VIRGINIA TECH +13½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)