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The college football season enters week 11 and is nearing the finish line of another outstanding season. Here we go with our NCAA Football System of the Week.
Last week the Texas Longhorns went on the road to Lubbock to face off against Big 12 rival Texas Tech Red Raiders. The oddsmakers gave the Longhorns little chance of coming away with a victory as they were installed as six-point road underdogs. Someone failed to inform the Longhorns of this fact and they proceeded to roll past Texas Tech 31 to 22.
This week our research looks at teams who pulled off a big upset victory against a conference rival on the road. With that in mind, we queried our database in search of possible winning situations that fit those parameters.
In doing so, we found that teams who pulled off an upset against a conference rival on the road struggled the following week with a major letdown especially if they had their bye week on deck. Several key situations with those parameters showed promise but the one that really stood out was the one below, which became our college system of the week for this week.
In Games, 2-10, play AGAINST a favorite of less than twenty-eight points with less than ten days rest coming off a conference road straight up win as an underdog of more than four-points and before seven days of rest. This powerful system has produced a record of 25-0-1 ATS since 1997 covering the spread by an average of 12.3 points per game over that span.
The Longhorns appear to have turned their season around entering today’s matchup riding a three-game winning streak. They may be able to get a win here but our system says they will have a hard time covering the spread against the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday at the time of this writing they are 10.5-point favorites over Iowa State.
With all the systems parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week recommends a play against the Texas Longhorns in their game against the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday in Austin. Take the points with the Cyclones.
4-Unit Play. Take #209 Navy (-1) over Troy (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) The Midshipmen won again last week. They have won five straight games now. This team is bowl eligible and they are going to continue to work hard for a great season. Troy is in a letdown situation. They lost just 55-48 last week at Tennessee. They really had a chance to knock off an SEC team. Troy is just No. 74 in the country in rush defense. I do not think that they will be strong against the option. Troy is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. Navy is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 road games. This spread opened at a pick but the sharp money has come in on the Midshipmen. This is a game that you are going to want to bet right away because I think the line will keep moving. But Navy should win in a blowout.
3-Unit Play. Take #132 Mississippi (-3) over Vanderbilt (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) Ole Miss is a very good team that is working to get bowl eligible. They can do that if they win this game at home. The Rebels have gone 7-2 ATS this year and have been a great team to bet on. They have won two of their last three games and they played better than the score looked like last week against Georgia. Vanderbilt has won three straight games. And they are going for back-to-back SEC road wins, something this program has not done in a long time. The last time they won four straight games was in 2008 when they started 5-0. I think that Bo Wallace will bounce back after a tough game against UGA. Vandy is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 road games and 1-4 ATS against a winning team. Ole Miss is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five SEC games. Take the Rebels.
3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 66.0 Colorado at Arizona (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) I do not play a lot of college football totals. But this is one that is too good to pass up. This game will kickoff at 11:30 a.m. local time on Saturday. And this is a game that Arizona does not care about anyway. Arizona's last home game was an upset of USC. Then last week they had a letdown and lost 66-10. Now they have to play one of the worst teams in the country. Colorado has scored over 17 points just one time in their last seven games and two times in their last 10 games. Colorado has only averaged a touchdown in their last three games. I think that Arizona will score around 44 points. But I do not see Colorado capable of getting 20 or more. This one will stay 'under'.
2-Unit Play. Take #164 Oklahoma State (-8) over West Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) West Virginia has really fallen off. They have struggled in their first season in the Big 12. And I think that they are going to struggle here. Oklahoma State is one of the toughest places in the league to get a win for a road team. West Virginia has lost three straight games and their defense has given up 39 or more points in five straight games. The offense can't score enough to keep up. Oklahoma State has given up 14 or less in three of their last four games. The Cowboys beat TCU by 22 points just two weeks ago. WVU lost to the Horned Frogs by one point at home. I think the Cowboys will take care of business and deal the Big 12 newcomer another loss.
3 Unit Play. #121 Take Louisville -2 over Syracuse (12:00p.m., Saturday, Nov 10 ABC) I don't know why this number keeps on dropping? Louisville is undefeated winning 9-straight and is perfect on the road this year, winning all 3 road games by 4-pts or more. Syracuse will be able to stay in this game because of their defense but Louisville will breakdown the Cuse defense in the 2nd half. Cardinal QB Bridgewater will be the difference in this game especially in the 2nd half and if he gets hot, the Cardinals will stay perfect. Louisville is 14-4 ATs in their last 18 road games and Syracuse is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 November games.
2 Unit Play. #156 Take Washington +1 ½ over Utah (10:30p.m., Saturday, Nov 10) Washington is on a 2-game winning streak and the Huskies are playing a Utah squad that is winless on the road. Washington has (2) big wins in CenturyLink Field already this year beating Oregon St by 3-points and Stanford by 4-points and Saturday night look for the Utes to be number 3. Utah is 1-4 ATS following a SU win by 20-points or more in their last game and Washington is 7-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.
3 Unit Play. #161 Take Over 67 ½ Oregon at California (10:30p.m., Saturday, Nov 10 ESPN) Why haven't I played Oregon games over the total in their last 5 games. Oregon has cashed the over 4 out of their last 5 games and the Ducks are averaging 54.3ppg in their last 9 games. Oregon will have no problem scoring on the Cal Bears Saturday night and I see this total again flying over. Would not shock me to see Oregon hit the half century mark on the road against Cal and if I can see Cal doing all of their scoring in the 2nd half as Oregon will lay off in the 2nd half. Oregon is 12-2 O/U in the month of November and the Ducks are also 23-8 O/U against PAC-12 schools.
5 Unit Play. #179 Take Tulsa -3 over Houston (5:00p.m., Saturday, Nov 10 CBSC) (Saturday Play of the Day) Revenge will be sweet Saturday night on the road for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Tulsa is coming off a non-conference loss last weekend from Arkansas but Saturday Tulsa will be looking to punch their ticket to the Conference USA Championship game. If the Houston Cougars can't slow down the Tulsa offense Saturday night this game could get out of control quickly and I just don't see Houston scoring at will against the Tulsa. Turnovers and their defense play have killed Houston all season long and Tulsa's defense will try to complete this task and again the Tulsa Golden Hurricane will win this road game with ease and by double-digits. Tulsa is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 conference games and Houston is 3-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record.
6-Unit Play. Take #170 Tennessee (-3) over Missouri (12:20 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) Note: This is our NCAA Game of the Week. I am not sold on this Missouri team at all this season as they haven't had the best time adjusting to the SEC. Tennessee has proven that they can play with many of the better teams in the SEC as they went to South Carolina and lost by 3, went to Mississippi State and lost by 10, and went to Georgia and lost by 7. Tennessee is now in a position to make a Bowl if they can win out. If they beat Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky they will finish 7-5 and most surely make a Bowl Game this season. The players, coaches, and fans are all aware of this and they will do everything in their power to put Missouri out of this game early. Yes, the Vols are looking for their first SEC win this season but they have had to play Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama. Not many teams across the country would find a win out of that group. Getting Missouri at home will change their fortunes. This is only Missouri's third road game of the season and playing in front of 90,000 people will not bode well for the Tigers. Tennessee QB Tyler Bray is on absolute fire lately and he will continue that trend on Saturday. Bray has thrown for 900 yards and 9 touchdowns over his last two weeks of football and one of those contests was @ South Carolina, where Bray was 27/43 for 368 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception. This game should be an absolute shootout and with Tennessee's offense clicking on all cylinders I see them covering this three-point line quite easily. Lay the points in this one as the Vols win 38-27.
3-Unit Play. Take #161 Oregon - First Half (-) over California (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) This line has not been posted yet. I expect it to be around 17.5. I will update this line Friday afternoon when it should be widely available. Oregon is an absolute machine in the first half of football games. Many times this team gets up four touchdowns and rests their starters for the second half. I would be absolutely shocked to see a first half lead of less than 28 points for Oregon here. The score at will, early and often. Oregon will be up 21-0 before you can even turn the channel. California has lost three straight games including their last two home games. In those two home losses they were tied 7-7 with Washington and down 21-3 to Stanford. Neither of these two teams are anywhere near as good as Oregon and if Stanford can be up 18 at California in the first half, Oregon could be up 40. This game has 35-7 written all over it for a half time score.
2-Unit Play. Take #146 Alabama (-14) over Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) In two big games this season Texas A&M scored 17 points versus Florida and 19 points versus LSU. I see them possibly getting to 14 against Alabama and the Crimson Tide will absolutely hit the 30 point total. The Tide have scored less than 30 points once all year and that was last weekend in Death Valley, when they hit paydirt for 21 points. If the Tide hadn't of fumbled when they were going in for to go up 21-10 that game would have been a double-figure win for Alabama and most certainly another 30 point output. The Tide are 5-1 ATS this season in the six games that they have been favored by 22 points or less. A&M meanwhile are 0-2 S.U. and ATS this season when they are the underdog (0-4 ATS in their last four games as a dog). Alabama has the speed outside to contain Johnny Manziel both on the run and when he escapes to pass, and I use the term escape loosely as I don't see it happening much. Bama is 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games and 7-3 in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #187 Central Florida (-13.5) over UTEP (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) I'm going to keep going to the well with Central Florida. I stated before the year that I thought this team was head and shoulders better than everyone in Conference USA. I have not been wrong. The have eviscerated league opponents, winning their last five games by 25, 37, 18, 7 and 20 points. The Knights are one of the only teams in this league that actually plays defense and runs the ball. This year UTEP has wins over Tulane and New Mexico State, two of the worst teams in college football. But they have been beaten by 10 at Houston (who is awful), by 22 at Tulsa and by 17 at home against SMU. Basically, until Central Florida stops dominating league foes they are a team to play on every week.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #146 Alabama (-13) over Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) I would not want to be the team that has to play Alabama this week. I know that A&M is a sexy, trendy pick. But they have not gone on the road and performed in this type of environment yet this year. They played Florida and LSU tough. But both of those games were at home. And in both instances they had teams that may not have been 100 percent focused coming to town. A&M has played its best two games of the season in back-to-back weeks. But this is their third road game in three weeks and their fifth road game in six games. I think all that travel is going to catch up with them. And the bottom line is that Alabama saw its life flash before its eyes last week in Baton Rouge. Their BCS championship dreams were about a minute away from evaporating. There is no motivation like the fear that I'm sure Nick Saban instilled in this team this week. Alabama has answered the bell in similar situations all season. They beat Missouri by 32 as a 21-point favorite. They beat Tennessee by 31 as a 19-point favorite. They hammered Mississippi State by 31 as a 22-point favorite. Basically, the Tide has done nothing but wreck SEC teams. I think Johnny Manziel is going to struggle on the road against the best defense he has faced all year and I see Alabama dropping the hammer again.
2-Unit Play. Take #209 Navy (-1) over Troy (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) The Midshipmen won 42-10 last year over this same Trojans team. And I don't think that Navy was playing as well or was as strong of an overall team then as they are now. Navy had an overall sluggish performance last week. But given everything that happened in the region with the hurricane you can understand if they were distracted going into Saturday's game. Troy, on the other hand, played a great game at Tennessee, falling 55-48. They gave the Vols everything that they could handle. But that was kind of a peak effort for the Trojans and I think that makes this a bit of a letdown situation. Troy's only wins this year have come against really bad teams. I don't think that they have enough juice here to get past a Navy team that has won five in a row and is playing very strong football right now.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #214 Florida (-26.5) over Lafayette (12:20 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10) This one here is really an "up-down" game. Lafayette is due for a letdown after last week. They beat rival Louisiana-Monroe in a rout as a nine-point road underdog. That was a key, emotional Sun Belt game and has Lafayette primed to come out a little flat. Florida lost to Georgia two weeks ago, crushing their national title dreams. They had their letdown last week, and needed to survive in a 14-7 game against Missouri. But I think that they are going to snap back to life here in this one and lay the wood. This same Lafayette team lost by over 40 at Oklahoma State this year and they gave up 50 points at Arkansas State two weeks ago. So this should be just the tonic that the Gators offense needs. Florida doesn't score a lot, but they have topped 30 points three times in their last seven games. And after two very low-scoring outputs I think that they get over that threshold here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #207 Florida Atlantic (+16.5) over Western Kentucky (1 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #196 Texas State (+20) over Louisiana Tech (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #192 South Carolina (-13) over Arkansas (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 10)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #174 San Diego State (-8) over Air Force (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
1-Unit Play. Take #170 Tennessee (-3) over Missouri (12:20 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
1-Unit Play. Take # 138 Miami, OH (+6.5) over Kent State (1 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
1.5-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #167 Cincinnati (-3) over Temple (Noon) AND Take #201 Oregon State (+11.5) over Stanford (3 p.m.)
4 Unit Play Take #150 Nebraska -7 over Penn State (3:30pm est):
Penn State has played well this year considering all of the off the field stuff they have had to deal with. But a deeper look at things also shows a team that has took advantage of one of the easier schedules right now in the Big Ten. Penn State has yet to play most of the conference heavyweights, outside of a bad loss at home to Ohio State a few weeks back. The Nittany Lions big games are coming still but so far it's been mainly a lot of Purdue, Iowa and Illinois types thus far. Even their non-conference slate hasn't been anything special with losses to an Ohio team that has shown to be very overrated and Virginia who before last week was having a very bad season so far.
Nebraska on the other hand has already faced Ohio State on the road, Wisconsin, Michigan and Michigan State (also a road contest) and came out of those four games with three wins. They look to also be playing much better since their loss to the Buckeyes which was then followed by a bye week for the Cornhuskers. Their close victories over both Northwestern and Michigan State were actually games they clearly outplayed their opponents, outgaining both squads and doing so rather convincingly also. The Cornhuskers have overall better stats on the season than Penn State on offense and about the same on the defensive side of the football, this despite playing a much tougher schedule on the season.
Nebraska is a solid two levels higher than Penn State right now as a football program, especially after all the hoopla surrounding the PSU program of late. Add in the fact they are at home here in this one and they should easily be double digit favorites here. Take Nebraska here.
4 Unit Play Take #170 Tennessee -3 over Missouri 3 (12:20pm est):
Tennessee looks to be playing much better football here later in the season despite some losing efforts. The Volunteers had four straight losses before last week's win over Troy but all their losses this year have been decent efforts and against the top teams in the country. The four straight defeats involved playing three road games that the Vols were double digits underdogs in two of (covered both contests) and their home loss in that stretch was to the mighty Crimson Tide of Alabama. Despite playing a murderous schedule against some of the nation's top programs, Tennessee is still putting up huge offensive numbers this season and had posted 31 points or more in seven of their nine games this year.
Missouri has played eight games so far against FBS competition and in those eight games the Tigers have scored more than 24 points just once and that game came against the SEC laughingstock Kentucky Wildcats. Missouri had done it more on the defensive side of things but have also faced the less powerful offenses of the conference also with games against Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and South Carolina. When they did face an Alabama or Georgia, the Tigers allowed over 40 points in each of those contests.
Been a very frustrating year for Tennessee up until now but they have chance to go "bowling" if they can just get things here in gear down the stretch drive and with game still left after this one against Vanderbilt and Kentucky look for the Vols to put forth a big effort here in this contest.
Take Tennessee here.
3 Unit Play Take #180 Houston +3 over Tulsa (5:00pm est):
The Houston Cougars ran into a buzz saw last week when going up against East Carolina who was following a tough defeat the week before. ECU shredded the Cougars defense, with over 250 yards rushing in the game. It was a big disappointment for Houston as they had won four of their last five games overall. Things don't look as bad now for Houston then they did when they started the season off with a 0-3 mark but being the fact two of those losses came against the two toughest teams they played all season in LA Tech and UCLA.
Tulsa went into Arkansas last week and though they stayed within a touchdown of an SEC team, they didn't look like they matched up well against the Razorbacks. They were hammered last season by Houston, losing by over 30 points at home. The underdog in this series has now covered five of the last six years overall coming into this contest here.
Houston is still the better of these two programs despite the fact they have went backwards a bit this season from last year's strong season. The odds makers just can't seem to get a feel for this Cougars squad, knocking them way too far back when they lost earlier in the year. The reality here is that this Houston team is undervalued and especially in this spot at home and against what is an overrated Tulsa team. Take Houston.
3 Unit Play Take #154 USC -9 over Arizona State (3:00pm est):
Even though USC has been beat a few times this year don't think for a moment this still isn't a very good football team. All of their losses were to tough teams or in tough environments. Even last week's defeat to Oregon is nothing to hang your head about as the Ducks were just too explosive to slow down enough to catch in that game. USC still battled in the game where most teams would have got blown out, the Trojans still made a decent game of it. This is a very frustrated group but they will have their full attention here in this one as they would love nothing more than to payback this ArizonaState team from their big upset win last season over USC.
As for ASU, I am not seeing what others are with this team. Their bigger wins earlier in the year over Illinois and Missouri are now looking less and less impressive with each passing week. They were easily beaten last weekend by an Oregon State without and are without as many weapons as USC brings to the field. The Sun Devils have actually now dropped three straight games and didn't play very well in any of those games either.
USC will name the score in this one as their class level is a few notches better than ASU right now. Take USC minus the points here.
3 Unit Play Take #156 Washington +1.5 over Utah (10:30pm est):
No team in the country has faced a tougher schedule this season so far than the Washington Huskies. Despite having played the likes of LSU, Stanford, Oregon, USC, Arizona and Oregon State in six of their nine games this season, the Huskies have still managed to have a winning record at this time. In fact this game here versus Utah may rank as Washington's second easiest game so far this season when all things are considered. The Huskies really showed something last week going on the road and winning a weekday, primetime TV game over what is a decent Cal team. This was one of the first true indications that we had a chance to see what Washington is made of as usually they are in almost insurmountable spots so far this year. Don't forget they also have a nice resume builder in a week one win over what is starting to look like a much better San DiegoState team as well. The Huskies real bad loss came a few weeks back against Arizona but cut the Huskies some slack for that defeat as they lost to the Wildcats who were coming off a nice mid-season bye and looked to be refreshed and pumped up for that game.
Don't be fooled by the big numbers Utah has put up in a few nice big wins the last few weeks instead it's probably better to keep in mind that those wins both come against two of the teams struggling the most in the Pac-12 lately (outside of Colorado). When faced with four stiff but winnable tests in a four week span against the likes of Oregon State, UCLA, USC at home and Arizona State, the Utes dropped all four games and by an average of 15 points per defeat.
Washington is the better of these two teams overall and will prove it here at home in this one. Take Washington and grab the point or so here in this one.
Jack Clayton Handicapper Selection Date: 11/10/2012 Jack Clayton has packaged 3 big plays on the Saturday football card, 3 sides -- including a 5-Star CFB Shocker of the Month. 3 plays in all for the price of one. Go inside the numbers -- with full analysis -- with Jack Clayton's 3-Pack Attack Trifecta and CA$H 3 times Saturday! 11/8/2012
4* 11/10 09:00 AM CF (129) PURDUE (130) IOWA Take: (130) IOWA. Last year Iowa beat Purdue won 31-21 with an edge in yards 408-282, as Purdue had 4 turnover. What was significant is that the Boilermakers were 5-6 need to win to become bowl-eligible. Purdue is currently a mess while losing 5 in a row, while Iowa is in the position the Boilermakers were in a year ago: needing a win to keep their bowl hopes going. Iowa just finished up a stretch playing 3 of 4 away. At 4-5 with 3 games left, they play Purdue, at Michigan and Nebraska, so they are thinking a winning record and bowl. The defense has been very good most of the year, 29th in scoring defense (21.4 ppg allowed), and the offense will do well against a horrible Purdue D that has packed in the season. Purdue (3-6) is winless in the Big 10 (0-5) with 5 straight losses, giving up 44, 38, 29, 44 and 34 points, off 34-9 loss at home to Penn State. Senior QB Caleb Terbush (12 TDs, 8 INTs) is sitting so QB Robert Marve (6 TDs, 2 INTs, 735 yds) will make his second consecutive start at quarterback against Iowa. Their defense is allowing 30.2 ppg. (85th in the nation) and it's been 25 years since Purdue has won in Iowa City. Purdue isn't just losing, it's getting walloped. The Boilermakers lost 29-22 in overtime at Ohio State last month, but they were outscored 160-64 in their other four Big Ten games. The low point may have been falling behind 44-7 at Minnesota en route to a 44-28 loss -- the Gophers' only Big Ten victory. Hope said some key players have played with significant injuries, such as defensive tackle Kawann Short (ankle), cornerback Ricardo Allen (shin and ankle) and defensive end Ryan Russell (various nagging injuries). Play Purdue!
3* 11/10 3:00 PM CF (153) ARIZONA STATE (154) USC Take: (153) ARIZONA STATE. Reason: Two strong offenses meet and USC has all kinds of defensive problems. Arizona State (5-4) has a potent offense that is 40th in the nation in rushing and passing, with 270 yards in the air and 187.7 yards rushing pg. They will do well against this struggling USC defense. The Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Play Arizona State!
5* 11/10 3:30 PM CF (163) WEST VIRGINIA (164) OKLAHOMA STATE Take: (163) Shocker of the Month: West Virginia. A pair of sensational passing offenses meet in this Big 12, both 5-3. West Virginia (5-3) Coach Dana Holgorsen has turned the Mountaineers into a pass-happy group, averaging 40.8 points, 341 yds passing, 139.5 rushing behind senior QB Geno Smith (29 TDs, 3 picks, 2,677 yards), after a 2011 season where he had 31 TDs, 7 picks, 4,385 yards. They are a top 5 passing attack behind with junior WR Stedman Bailey (830 yds) and 5-foot-9 senior playmaking WR Tavon Austin (889), both had over 1,000 yds in 2011. The Mountaineers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games in November and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. They face a weak Oklahoma State (5-3) defense and one with rotating QBs. They lost at Arizona (59-38), to Texas (41-36) and at K-State (44-30). They’ve used freshman QB Wes Lunt (6 TDs, 7 INTs, 1,096 yds) and freshman J.W. Walsh (10 TDs, 3 INTs) because of injuries. J.W. Walsh suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago in a win over Iowa State and they come off a 44-30 loss at K-State. The defense allowed 481 yds (191 rushing), and the visitors have more than enough offense to keep this close. Play West Virginia!
Rest of Games 113. Northwestern +10 122. Syracuse +1.5 128. Indiana +7.5 171. Iowa St. +10.5 133. Georgia Tech +7.5 136. E Michigan +2.5 138. Miami Ohio +6.5 117. Wake Forest +8 153. Arizona St. +9 126. Illinois +3 144. Buffalo +2.5 149. Penn St. +9 158. New Mexico +2 173. Air Force +7.5 178. UAB +3
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