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Daily Comp Pick
Kansas City Chiefs +12.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
4-Unit Play. #170. Take Morehead State +14.5 over Maryland (Monday @ 8pm est)
Morehead State was a decent team last year and they have gotten stronger this year. This is a team that finished the year at top 200 in my power rankings and now they went on the road to defeat Long Island on the opening tip of the season who I had as a top 170 team. And, they beat them on the road. Now, they go on the road to face Maryland who will likely be hung over from the Kentucky loss. It is tough to play Kentucky, arguably the most storied college basketball program in history in their much anticipated season opener and then come back home to play a team called Morehead State. This team has a new coach in Sean Woods and as they open the year 1-0 they will get up for this game because the motivation is much more for Morehead State than it is for Maryland. Maryland won 17 games last year and they have solid talent with Len, Padgett, Wells and Faust. Morehead State is a more confident team this year with Chavis, Atkinson, Owens and Lewis-Briggs. In short, I now have Morehead State as a top 155 team facing a top 75 team in Maryland on the road given a bit of a hangover and I have Maryland likely winning this game by eleven points this evening.
4-Unit Play. #723. Take Youngstown State +8.5 over Georgia (Monday @ 7pm est).
Youngstown State was a team we took earlier in the year, in fact, Saturday and we won with them Outright catching the +4 points. Now, they go on the road to Georgia to build off that win. I have Youngstown State as a top 140 team and they go on the road to face Georgia who is a top 140 team as well in my book. It's early in the year but do note that Georgia played a Jacksonville team and beat them by 6 points at home who is a top 200 team in the early rankings. So, what you have is probably two relatively evenly matched teams facing each other. Georgia still has young guard play so they are outside the top 200 in turnover percentage to start the year and they rely heavily on their paint and play defense and do not have a solid 3 point shooting team. Youngstown State on the other hand has good guard play and they are usually one of the better teams in the country in 3 point efficiency as well which should bode them well in a likely see-saw game. I like Youngstown State to hang tough here as they are 4-1 ATS when they face a team with a winning percentage of greater than 60% and the Bulldogs are 5-15 ATS following a straight up win.
4-Unit Play. #714. Take Under 201.5 Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns (Monday @ 9pm est).
The Nuggets have quietly reeled off four straight wins after struggling to start the year on the road. This team is now 4-3 and one of the trends to notice as that the Nuggets have played to the Under when they are favorites on the road. For example the game in Golden State should have gone under if it was not for overtime and the game in Orlando as well as Philadelphia went under as well. Such is the case here as they are favored of the Suns. The Suns come off a tough loss in their last game and this team's makeup is much more defensive rather than offensive as compared to the Nash' Years. I'm not thrilled with the fact that Phoenix only scored 81 in their last game as they will come back offensively in this game. But, Phoenix has played to the Under as well including against Detroit and Golden State. It will be interesting to see how this team reacts as a home underdog here but I suspect this is a solid public fade as the public is nearly over 70% on the Over here. Denver is a defensive team by nature with Karl's big guys on the front court and the Under is 5-2 for the Nuggets following a straight up win and the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Phoenix as well.
Daily Comp Pick
Kansas City Chiefs +12.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
4-Unit Play. #170. Take Morehead State +14.5 over Maryland (Monday @ 8pm est)
Morehead State was a decent team last year and they have gotten stronger this year. This is a team that finished the year at top 200 in my power rankings and now they went on the road to defeat Long Island on the opening tip of the season who I had as a top 170 team. And, they beat them on the road. Now, they go on the road to face Maryland who will likely be hung over from the Kentucky loss. It is tough to play Kentucky, arguably the most storied college basketball program in history in their much anticipated season opener and then come back home to play a team called Morehead State. This team has a new coach in Sean Woods and as they open the year 1-0 they will get up for this game because the motivation is much more for Morehead State than it is for Maryland. Maryland won 17 games last year and they have solid talent with Len, Padgett, Wells and Faust. Morehead State is a more confident team this year with Chavis, Atkinson, Owens and Lewis-Briggs. In short, I now have Morehead State as a top 155 team facing a top 75 team in Maryland on the road given a bit of a hangover and I have Maryland likely winning this game by eleven points this evening.
4-Unit Play. #723. Take Youngstown State +8.5 over Georgia (Monday @ 7pm est).
Youngstown State was a team we took earlier in the year, in fact, Saturday and we won with them Outright catching the +4 points. Now, they go on the road to Georgia to build off that win. I have Youngstown State as a top 140 team and they go on the road to face Georgia who is a top 140 team as well in my book. It's early in the year but do note that Georgia played a Jacksonville team and beat them by 6 points at home who is a top 200 team in the early rankings. So, what you have is probably two relatively evenly matched teams facing each other. Georgia still has young guard play so they are outside the top 200 in turnover percentage to start the year and they rely heavily on their paint and play defense and do not have a solid 3 point shooting team. Youngstown State on the other hand has good guard play and they are usually one of the better teams in the country in 3 point efficiency as well which should bode them well in a likely see-saw game. I like Youngstown State to hang tough here as they are 4-1 ATS when they face a team with a winning percentage of greater than 60% and the Bulldogs are 5-15 ATS following a straight up win.
4-Unit Play. #714. Take Under 201.5 Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns (Monday @ 9pm est).
The Nuggets have quietly reeled off four straight wins after struggling to start the year on the road. This team is now 4-3 and one of the trends to notice as that the Nuggets have played to the Under when they are favorites on the road. For example the game in Golden State should have gone under if it was not for overtime and the game in Orlando as well as Philadelphia went under as well. Such is the case here as they are favored of the Suns. The Suns come off a tough loss in their last game and this team's makeup is much more defensive rather than offensive as compared to the Nash' Years. I'm not thrilled with the fact that Phoenix only scored 81 in their last game as they will come back offensively in this game. But, Phoenix has played to the Under as well including against Detroit and Golden State. It will be interesting to see how this team reacts as a home underdog here but I suspect this is a solid public fade as the public is nearly over 70% on the Over here. Denver is a defensive team by nature with Karl's big guys on the front court and the Under is 5-2 for the Nuggets following a straight up win and the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Phoenix as well.
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