11-14-12

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ATS LOCK
2 Nothern Ill
Hoops
3 Louisiana Tech
3 Creighton

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Paul Leiner

500* Toledo / No Illinois Over 65

100* Thunder / Grizllies Over 194

100* San Diego -13.5

50* Ohio +6.5

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Robert Ferringo
Teaser: Wisconsin +11.5 & SIU-Edwardsville +6

SIU-Edwardsville +1
Santa Clara +12.5
Fresno State -9

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Trace Adams


Top-Rated
1000♦
Winner #20 of 32


Ohio U +6

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JACK JONES
: Pacers/Bucks UNDER 188.5 at 5dimes
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks. Indiana is one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season, but one of the best defensively.

The Pacers are scoring a woeful 88.1 points/game this season in large part because they are without their best scorer in Danny Granger. However, they have made up for it at the other end of the floor, limiting opponents to a mere 90.1 points/game on the year.

Indiana is 31-12 to the UNDER in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 home games. The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Bucks last 10 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

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jack jones
-= TOP PLAY =-
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Nov 14 '12
9:00p Toledo vs Northern Illinois
Take: Toledo +11-110 in 6h
25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo +11

The Toledo Rockets represent my strongest MAC release for the entire 2012 college football season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight against the Northern Illinois Huskies.

Toledo is undervalued due to its 27-34 loss to Ball State last week. There's no question it was looking ahead to this game against Northern Illinois. That's because this game is a winner-take-all in the MAC West. The winner will have the inside track to the MAC title game.

The Rockets had their shot last year, but they fell 63-60 on November 1st to Northern Illinois. That loss cost them the MAC West title, and there's no doubt this team wants revenge. Toledo will be the more motivated team coming in.

Northern Illinois is way overvalued due to playing an extremely easy schedule this season en route to a 9-1 start. The Rockets have played a much tougher schedule and have managed to get through at 8-2. Both of their losses came by exactly 7 points to a pair of very solid Arizona and Ball State teams.

This play falls into a system that is 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N ILLINOIS) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%). Bet Toledo Wednesday.

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Indian Cowboy

CBB 4* Fresno State -9

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SB Professor Original NCAAF 11/14

303. Toledo +10*

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Indian Cowboy

CBB 4* Fresno State -9

4-Unit Play. #707. Take Under 186.5 New Orleans vs. Houston (Wednesday @ 8:05pm est).

New Orleans is a young team that is finding itself on the defensive side of the ball. This has always been a defensive minded team even when Chris Paul was there and now they look to continue that as they come off scoring 107 points against another young team in Charlotte. Prior to that game going over at home, New Orleans had played 3 straight unders including under in its only road game of the year. As it plays a more seasoned team in Houston today who also focuses on the defensive end as they are top 16 in the league in defense whereas New Orleans is top 5 in the league in defense, I look for this game to likely be a defensive battle. Houston uncharacteristically gave over a 100 points to the Heat at home so they will look to correct that today. In fact, they gave up 113. This is the same team that gave up 93 to Denver at home and 95 to Portland - in overtime. Look for this game to likely dip under as both teams do well on the defensive end with motivation and note that the Under is 5-0 for the Rockets following a straight up loss and the Under is 7-3 for the Hornets following a straight up win.

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Intpicks
Toledo @ NIU over 65.5 (CFB)
- San Diego -14 (CBB)
- Ohio +6.5 (CFB), Chicago -2.5 (NBA), Texas Tech -13.5 (CBB)

Free play: Atlanta +1.5 (NBA)

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NESS

NBA VEGAS INSIDER--clippers

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Charlie Sports
500* Ohio, Over Ohio, Under Toledo (All CFB)
30* Suns
20* Florida

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Vegas Winner - Over Ball St, Over Heat

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JACK JONES
Jack Jones
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-B Nov 14 '12
7:00p WISCONSIN vs FLORIDA
Take: FLORIDA -6-104 in 4h
15* Wisconsin/Florida ESPN 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Florida -6

The Florida Gators are one of the most talented teams in the country this season. They are ranked inside the Top 10 for good reason, and that will show on the floor tonight as they crush the Wisconsin Badgers at home.

The Gators return three starters from a team that made it to the Elite Eight last year. They are leading scorer Kenny Boynton (15.9 PPG, 3.0 3-pointers), Erik Murphy (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Patric Young (10.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG).

Florida led 47-9 at halftime in its opener and cruised to an 84-35 victory over Alabama State. Boynton finished with 22 points, five assists and six rebounds. Murphy hit three 3's and scored 15 points, while Young added 12 points and 12 rebounds with two blocks.

Wisconsin has lost starting point guard Josh Gasser to a season-ending knee injury. That's huge because it already had to replace leading scorer Jordan Taylor (14.8 PPG) from last season. Teams that struggle at the point guard position don't usually fare well. Take Florida Wednesday.

Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Nov 14 '12
8:00p Ohio vs Ball State
Take: Ohio +7-115 in 5h
15* Ohio/Ball State ESPNU Wednesday No-Brainer on Ohio +7

The Bobcats are still mathematically alive for the MAC East title considering they still get to play Kent State in the final game of the season. They would need some help for that game to even matter, but at this point they are still alive.

Despite two losses in their last three games, this is still an 8-win team that returned 14 starters from a team that won the MAC East title last year, including QB Tyler Tettleton. He may be the best signal caller in the MAC. Tettleton is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 198 yards and four scores.

Ohio is 3-1 on the road this season with its only loss coming at Miami (Ohio) by 3 points. I know the Bobcats lost to Bowling Green at home last week, but their defense played well enough to win that game, limiting the Falcons to just 288 total yards. Ball State hasn’t been stopping anybody this season, ranking 108th in the country in total defense (471.3 yards/game).

Ohio should be able to run all over Ball State's defense. The Bobcats rank 25th in the country in rushing (208.6 yards/game), while the Cardinals rank 101st against the run (213.6 yards/game). They are allowing 5.1 yards/carry this season.

The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Frank Solich is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992. The Cardinals are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Ohio Wednesday.

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Kelso Football

25 Units

Ohio U (+6½) over Ball State
8:00 PM -- Scheumann Stadium
Ohio University (8-2) +6½ over BALL STATE (7-3)

Prediction: Ball State by 1-2

Played in Muncie, Indiana
Played at Scheumann Stadium (22,500) Artificial Turf
Weather: Partly cloudy, game-time temperatures in low 30s-high 20s, relative humidity of 56%, wind out of the east at 7 miles per hour.

Comments: The betting line on this game opened as hard as a rock with Ball State the -3 ½-point favorite but money has pushed that number out to 6 ½ which to me is an inaccurate reflection of the relative talent and ability of these two above-average teams. Both teams have excellent quarterbacks, with Ohio’s Tyler Tettleton having a slight edge in this category as the school’s all-time leading passer. Both teams have game-breaking running backs but again Ohio’s Beau Blankenship who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards also giving his team a slight edge in that category. Ball State does have momentum on its side and comes into this off four straight wins, including last week’s victory at Toledo, 34-27. Ohio opened the season 7-0, including a 24-14 win at Penn State but stands just 1-2 in its last three games. In the end, the bottom line says this is a dead-even matchup of two teams of equal talent and that means I must take the points. It also is of note Ohio is 14-3 in its last 17 games, dating back to last season.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the East at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 35.

25 Units

Northern Ill (-10) over Toledo
9:00 PM -- Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (9-1) -10 over Toledo (8-2)

Prediction: Northern Illinois by 17-21

Played in DeKalb, Illinois
Played at Huskie Stadium (24,000) Artificial Turf
Weather: Partly cloudy, game-time temperatures in 20s, relative humidity of 67%, winds out of the south-southeast at 8 miles per hour.

Comments: This is the third straight year these teams have met late in the season in a game that will most likely decide the MAC West championship. Both have one more game after this but will be overwhelming favorites to win those. This means tonight is the night. There is no question Toledo and Northern Illinois are very good football teams. Toledo’s two losses came at Arizona, 24-17, in the opening game of the season and last week at home to Ball State, 34-27. Northern Illinois suffered its only loss of the season in its opening game when it dropped a one-point decision, 18-17, to Iowa in a game played at Soldier Field in Chicago. With that said, however, my figures say Northern Illinois is the most under-rated team in college football. The Huskies are led by dual-threat junior quarterback Jordan Lynch who is all but unstoppable. He leads the nation in total offense (3,517 yards), in rushing yards (1,342), has rushed for 100 or more yards in his last eight games, has not thrown an interception in the last six games, has the 21st best passing efficiency rating in the NCAA and has not turned the ball over in his last 291 touches. He is a remarkable blue-chip game-breaking player and my analysis says Toledo will not be able to slow him down. It also is of note the home field bias at Huskie Stadium is quite strong and that Northern Illinois also has a solid defense that gives up just 375.1 yards per game, compared to 463.1 for Toledo. Everything points to a big NI win.
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Near 35.

25 Units

2-Team College Parlay
Ohio U (+6½) over Ball State
Northern Ill (-10) over Toledo

Kelso Basketball

25 Units

Bucks (-4½) over Pacers
8:00 PM -- BMO Harris Bradley Center

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (4-2) -4 ½ over Indiana Pacers (3-4)

Prediction: Bucks by 9-10

Comments: The biggest and deciding edge Milwaukee has in this game is the simple fact that without leading scorer Danny Granger—sidelined for three months with patellar tendinitis—Indiana has no offense. With Granger out, the Pacers have averaged 88.1 points per game this season, hitting just 40.1% of their field goals. In their last game, a 74-72 home loss to Toronto, they had just 24 field goals for the entire game. Indiana is 1-4 in its last five games and is facing a Milwaukee team that should be primed to get the job done at home after losing two straight there. The Bucks come into this game off a 105-96 win at Philadelphia and appear primed to play their best home game of the season.

15 UnitsSaint Louis (-12) over Santa Clara
8:00 PM -- Chaifetz Arena
SAINT LOUIS (1-0) -12 over Santa Clara (1-0)

Prediction: Saint Louis by 17-18

Comments: Santa Clara is going to find out real fast Saint Louis is not Simpson College, a small (enrollment 1,485) NCAA Division III from Iowa the Broncos buried 106-66 in their opening game. Saint Louis went 26-8 last season, just missed making it to the NCAA’s Sweet Sixteen round and puts on the floor this time around a team that is even better than last year’s. While the Billikens are unranked now, they soon will be and may even be a Top Ten team. They return six of their top seven scorers from last year and the team is big, quick and runs two deep at the all-important point guard position. Santa Clara returns four starters from last year’s 8-22 team but appear to be over-matched in this one.

10 Units

Wisconsin (+5½) over Florida
7:00 PM -- Stephen C. O`Connell Center
Wisconsin (1-0) +5 ½ over FLORIDA (1-0)

Prediction: Wisconsin by 3-4

Comments: We know one thing for certain about Wisconsin—they are a nightmare to play. Coach Bo Ryan runs one of the most sophisticated slowdown offenses in the history of modern day college basketball and it drives teams nuts, especially those like Florida who are more comfortable playing at a rapid pace. When one throws into the handicapping equation the Badgers also play defense with intensity and this game has “upset” written all over it. Both are equally talented, have an abundance to blue-chip players and take the court well-prepared to win. I just have the gut feeling Bo Ryan basketball wins this one. It also is of note Ryan is 110-27 (80.3%) in non-conference games since taking over in Madison in 2001-02.