11-15-12

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Dolphins (4-5) @ Bills (3-6)-- Two fading teams who really need a win. Miami won six of last eight series games, winning last two played here, 15-10/30-23; Fish are 4-0 when they win turnover margin, 0-5 when they don't. Bills haven't had takeaway in last three games (-6); they're 0-6 when they allow more than 17 points. Dolphins are 3-1 as road dogs; since '08, they're 23-8-1 against spread when getting points on road. Buffalo lost its last three games, allowing 35-21-37 points; they're 1-2 at home, 2-2 as faves, 1-1 at home. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this year. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Miami games, 3-6 in last nine Buffalo games, 0-3 at home.

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Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-1, 46)

The slumping Miami Dolphins attempt to even their road record at 3-3 on Thursday night, when they visit the AFC East-rival Buffalo Bills. Miami, which had won two straight before their bye week, made it three in a row on Oct. 28 as they soundly thumped the New York Jets 30-9 on the road. But the Dolphins were edged by the Colts in Indianapolis the following week, dropping them to 2-3 away from home, and suffered their most lopsided home loss since 1968 on Sunday - a 37-3 defeat against Tennessee.

Buffalo will be trying to halt a three-game losing streak as it returns home after two straight on the road. The Bills lost a one-point decision at home to Tennessee on Oct. 21 and followed their bye week with setbacks at Houston and New England. Beginning Thursday, Buffalo will play five of its final seven games at home, including a Week 15 matchup against Seattle at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: This game opened at a pick at most books and action on the Bills has moved the spread to -1. The total has gone from 45 to 46 and has now settled at 45.5 at some markets.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to East at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-5, 4-5 ATS): Miami committed four turnovers Sunday that led to 20 points and allowed an opposing running back to gain 100 yards for the first time in 23 games as Chris Johnson rushed for 126 on 23 carries. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and running back Reggie Bush had a costly fumble that earned him a seat on the bench in the first half. Tannehill had gone four consecutive games without a pick. He may have an easier time Thursday as Buffalo has the 25th-ranked pass defense.

ABOUT THE BILLS (3-6, 4-5 ATS): Buffalo never led Sunday as it lost to New England for the second time this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with Donald Jones from two yards out with 7:47 remaining in the fourth quarter to get the Bills within 34-31. But after a Patriots field goal, the quarterback threw an interception in the end zone with 23 seconds left, ending Buffalo's hopes of notching its first win in 11 tries at Gillette Stadium since it opened in 2002. The Bills lost more than a game as running back Fred Jackson was ruled out of Thursday's game with a concussion after being hit in the head by Patriots linebacker Brandon Spikes late in Sunday's loss. C.J. Spiller will see the bulk of the action against Miami.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Miami won both meetings last season by a combined score of 65-31.

2. Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards Sunday, making him the fifth QB in Bills history to reach the 10,000-yard mark.

3. Buffalo announced the game, in which it will honor all branches of the military, is sold out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tale of the Tape: Dolphins at Bills
by Sean Murphy

An AFC East showdown takes the Thursday night spotlight when the Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills. We break down both sides in our tale of the tape:

Offense

The Dolphins, who average 105.8 yards on the ground per game, tried to spark their rushing offense last week versus Tennessee but mustered only 54 yards on 15 carries including a fumble from RB Reggie Bush. Miami has rushed for only 78.3 yards per game over its last three contests, and hasn’t done much to relieve the pressure on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, who was intercepted three times in Week 10.

The Bills will be without RB Fred Jackson (concussion) Thursday, leaving the offense to lean on backup C.J. Spiller. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Spiller averages 7.3 yards per carry this year – best in the NFL – and seems to make big plays whenever he touches the football. Buffalo put up a solid fight versus New England last Sunday, scoring 31 points and boasting a franchise-record 35 first downs. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.

Edge: Bills

Defense

Miami has looked to its defense to keep it in ball games this season, allowing just 20.7 points per game – eighth lowest in the NFL. The Dolphins front seven has done a great job plugging up the ground game, giving up 94.2 yards an outing, but that number must be taken with a grain of salt because of how bad Miami is at defending the pass. Opponents are putting up 278 yards through the air each time the Dolphins take the field. Those same opponents are averaging 11.7 yards per completion.

The Bills haven't been doing themselves any favors defensively, allowing at least 35 points in four of their last six games overall. They're giving up a whopping 6.4 yards per play on the season, and have been particularly poor against the run, allowing 5.5 yards per rush. On a positive note, the Dolphins don't appear poised to exploit that weakness, as they're averaging only 3.8 yards per rush. Buffalo has been fairly consistent in terms of its pass rush, averaging 2.7 sacks per game here at home.

Edge: Dolphins

Special teams

The Dolphins return game has been a big positive this season, as they're averaging well north of the league average at 12.3 yards per punt return, and 27.3 yards on kickoffs. Kicker Dan Carpenter has had a bit of an off year, converting on only 13 of 17 field goal attempts. With a sputtering red zone offense, Carpenter could certainly be a factor on Thursday night.

Buffalo has been even better returning punts, one of the league's best teams in that department, averaging 19.5 yards per return. The problem is, they've had a tough time defending punts, giving up 15 yards per return. On kickoff returns, they've been nothing more than average at 26.3 yards per return. Veteran kicker Ryan Lindell has made good on 9 of 10 field goal attempts.

Edge: Bills

Word on the street

"When you play like that, we need to make some corrections. We need to make improvements, even though we're in a semi-time crunch.'' Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin on the team's quick turn-around following Sunday's 37-3 drubbing at the hands of the Titans.

"As an offense, we're definitely going to miss him because he brings so much to our team. But this is familiar territory for me.'' Bills RB C.J. Spiller speaking about the injury to starting tailback Fred Jackson.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

North Carolina at Virginia: What Bettors Need to Know

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers (+3, 61)

NCAA penalties excluded North Carolina from postseason play before the year started. The Tar Heels can also guarantee Virginia stays home during bowl season if they defeat the host Cavaliers on Thursday in the 117th meeting. Virginia entered November needing to win out to finish 6-6 and earn postseason eligibility. A 41-40 comeback victory over Miami last week brought the Cavaliers halfway to that goal. Meanwhile, North Carolina lost a 68-50 shootout to Georgia Tech - the highest-scoring game in ACC history.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: North Carolina opened as high as -4 and have been bet down to -3. The total opened at 61 and is high as 61.5.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 40s. Winds are not expected to be a factor.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (6-4, 3-3 ACC, 5-5 ATS): The Tar Heels allowed their highest point total in a home game and allowed 588 yards of offense in a performance against Georgia Tech that left coach Larry Fedora without answers. Running back Giovani Bernard became the first North Carolina player in 20 years to run for 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. Natrone Means accomplished that feat in 1991 and 1992. Bernard leads the ACC in rushing (143.6 yards per game) and ranks eighth nationally.

ABOUT VIRGINIA (4-6, 2-4, 1-8-1 ATS): The Cavaliers finally have figured out their quarterback rotation. Michael Rocco made his first start since September and played brilliantly against Miami, throwing for 300 yards and four touchdowns to earn ACC Offensive Back of the Week honors. At one point, Rocco completed 18 straight passes - a school record - and marshaled the Cavaliers on a game-winning drive capped by a touchdown to Jake McGee with six seconds to go. Phillip Sims added 88 passing yards and ran for a score in relief.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Tar Heels are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
* Tar Heels are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings in Virginia.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. North Carolina has won the past two meetings after Virginia had won four straight.

2. Virginia senior DE Bill Schautz played against Miami after missing the previous five games with a hamstring injury.

3. North Carolina G Jonathan Cooper has made 45 career starts, the most of any active offensive lineman in the ACC.

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NFL Week 11 Preview: Dolphins at Bills
by Steve Bennett

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Buffalo -1.5, Total: 45

AFC East foes eager to put a stop to their losing streaks clash on Thursday night when the Bills host the Dolphins.

These teams have a short week to recover from tough Week 10 defeats. After a narrow 23-20 loss in Indianapolis in Week 9, the Dolphins were never in their Week 11 contest, getting blown out 37-3 at home to Tennessee. And the Bills were 15 yards away from upsetting the Patriots in New England (and that despite 148 penalty yards) before a game-ending INT sealed their third straight defeat. Miami has covered in eight of its past 10 road games, including an SU win at Buffalo last December. In that meeting, RB Reggie Bush torched the Bills for 203 rushing yards, and the Dolphins won despite losing three fumbles. Buffalo has allowed a league-high 164 rushing YPG and 5.5 YPC this season. Bills RB Fred Jackson (concussion) is listed as doubtful.

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill had strung together four straight games without an interception before throwing three picks to the Titans last week. The rookie has a paltry 5 TD passes and 9 INT in his nine starts this season, but could have success facing Buffalo's 21st-ranked pass defense (246 YPG). Despite Bush's big day in his last visit to Ralph Wilson Stadium, he has just one game of 70+ rushing yards in 2012, way back in Week 2. Since then, he's rushed for a paltry 314 yards (45 per game) on 3.7 yards per carry. And although the Bills have the league's worst run defense, they have been better over the past two weeks (117.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC) against a pair of quality running teams (Texans, Patriots). Buffalo's defense needs to figure out a way to force some mistakes though, failing to cause a single turnover in each of its past three games.

Buffalo is just 1-2 (SU and ATS) at home this season, due mostly to a defense allowing 34.7 PPG and 464 total YPG to these three visitors (K.C., New England and Tennessee). QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has tossed 17 TD and 10 INT this season, but has failed to throw a touchdown in three of his past five games. He's 2-2 in his career versus Miami, throwing for 994 yards (249 YPG), 5 TD and 7 INT, with five of those picks coming last year. However, Miami's passing defense has been much worse this season, allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (278 YPG). Turnovers continue to be a problem for this Bills offense, as they have 16 giveaways over the past six games. Another big issue in upstate New York has been injuries that continue to pile up. In addition to Jackson being doubtful, DE Mark Anderson (knee) remains out, while DE Chris Kelsay (neck) and CB Aaron Williams (ankle) are both doubtful. Three other key defenders are also banged-up, but are expected to play on Thursday -- CB Leodis McKelvin (groin) and DTs Marcell Dareus (shoulder) and Kyle Williams (ankle).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Football

The Daniel Curry Index

Week 11 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 82-55 (.599)
ATS: 64-79 (.448)
ATS Vary Units: 292-462 (.387)
Over/Under: 77-65 (.542)
Over/Under Vary Units: 309-231 (.572)

Thursday, November 15, 2012
BUFFALO 24, Miami 22

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Handicapping Kings

MARC

NFL- MIAMI/BUFFALO UNDER 45 -110 (830PM)

GOODFELLAS

NCAAF- VIRGINA +3 -105 NC (730PM)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Florida (-6 1/2 ) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s the Dolphins. The deficit is 1363 sirignanos.

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Thursday, November 15th - Free Member Play

TOP (3 UNITS)
VIRGINIA +3.5 vs north carolina (4:30pm)

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Celtics won five of last six games (1-1 as road dog), but Rondo turned his ankle last nite and Garnett played major minutes. Nets won their last three games (2-1-1 as home favorite).
-- Knicks won first five games, all by 10+ points (1-0 as road dog). San Antonio won seven of first eight games (2-0-1 as home favorite).
-- Nuggets won four of last five games (2-0 at home).

Cold Teams
-- Heat are 6-3 but lost two of last three games and have tough travel to Denver from LA.

Totals
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Boston's last five games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in New York games this season.
-- Four of last six Denver games went over the total.

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CBB

-- Illinois State beat UCSB by 28 in its opener; Redbirds have 4 starters back from 21-14/9-9 team, but new starter is PG. MVC teams are 6-2 vs spread so far this season. Drexel is supposed to be best team in CAA, but they lost opener at Kent State- they still struggle to score.
-- Southern Mississippi lost 3 starters and its coach from LY's 25-9 club that was 11-5 in C-USA and made NCAAs; Eagles won opener in OT over Western Kentucky. Georgia has 3 starters back from 15-17/5-11 team, but home loss to Youngstown State last game wasn't good.
-- Nebraska has new coach, 4 new starters; they beat Southern by 11 in opener. Big Dozen teams are 1-3 vs spread in games where number was ingle digits. Valparaiso won 7am home game Tuesday; they return five starters from LY's 22-12/14-4 team that won Horizon in regular season.
-- TCU-SMU both have new coaches; Horned Frogs won three of last four games vs Mustangs, losing 68-62 LY. TCU won its first two games allowing 46-47 points. SMU has 3 starters back from 13-19/4-12 team, and drastic upgrade at coach. C-USA road underdogs are 1-3 vs spread.

-- St Mary's has 4 starters back 27-6/14-2 team; they're picked 2nd in stronger WCC, whose teams are 7-3 vs spread this year. Utah State has tough home court; they're #3 pick in WAC, with 3 starters back from LY's 21-16/8-6 team. Aggies beat Idaho State 56-48 in opener.
-- Arizona returns 57% of scoring from LY's 23-12/12-6 team, plus they added Xavier transfer Lyons, who won't kill them til March. Charleston Southern shot 54% on 2-pointers against them in opener. UTEP has 3 starters back from 15-17/7-9 team. Floyd's teams always defend well.
-- Akron lost opener in OT at Coastal Carolina, bad loss for team with 4 starters back from LY's 22-12/13-3 team. MAC underdogs are 4-9 vs spread this month. Oklahoma State has 4 starters back from 15-18/7-11 team. Cowboys beat Cal-Davis 73-65 in their opener.
-- Dayton has 3 starters back from 20-13/9-7 team; they won opener by 13 over Arkansas State, are picked #7 in A-16. Colorado took Europe trip this summer, should help them get off to better start- they return 2 starters from 24-12/11-7 team- they won opener by 15 over Wofford. .
-- Boston College has 4 starters back from 9-22/4-12 team, but two new recruits will push 2 starters to bench- their better players are younger. Baylor has good guards, but graduated all its frontcourt starters. Drew always recruits good talent; guards have to carry them early on.

-- St John's struggled at home vs Detroit Tuesday before pulling ahead in last 5:00; Lavin misses tactician/assistant Dunlap, who is 4-3 as coach of NBA's Bobcats (7-59 LY). Charleston has new coach, 4 starters back from 19-12/10-8 team- they beat Towson State by 17 in opener.
-- Auburn has 4 starters back from 15-16/5-11 team; they're picked #8 in SEC, as their talent level rises. Murray State lost 3 starters and backup PG from LY's 31-2/15-1 team- they get transfer guard from UAB who could help right away. Racers are picked to win their half of OVC again.
-- Alabama had all it could handle with South Dakota State in its opener, but hit 3 at buzzer for home won; Crimson Tide has 3 starters back from LY's 21-12/9-7 team. Oregon State plays fast now that talent level is bit higher; Beavers won first two games by 19-9 points (Niagara/NM St.).
-- Purdue lost at home to Bucknell, then pounded Hofstra by 29-- they have 2 starters back from 22-13/10-8 team, are picked #9 in Big Dozen. Villanova beat D-2 team, Marshall by 12 to open season; they've got 3 starters back from 13-19/5-13 team. Freshman PG has helped so far.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFB

North Carolina is road favorite five days after giving up 588 total yards in unsightly 68-50 home loss to Georgia Tech, which had 380 yards on ground. It was first UNC loss this year by more than 5 points. Carolina beat Virginia last two years, 44-10 here, 28-17 at home LY. Virginia beat Miami last week on score with 0:06 left, its second win in row after six straight losses; Cavaliers are 8-4 vs spread in last 12 games as a road dog. Tar Heels are 1-3 on road this year (won 18-14 at Miami), 0-3 as a road favorite (4-10 since '05). ACC home underdogs are 7-7 vs the spread in conference play. Over is 4-1-1 in North Carolina's last six games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

Miami at Buffalo

The Bills look to take advantage of a Miami team that is coming off a 37-3 loss to Tennessee and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Buffalo is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Bills favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 305-306: Miami at Buffalo (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 127.868; Buffalo 130.716 Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3; 42 Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1); Under

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DCI College Basketball

The Daniel Curry Index

11/15/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 213-59 (.783)
ATS: 65-67 (.492)
ATS Vary Units: 256-329 (.438)
Over/Under: 13-16 (.448)
Over/Under Vary Units: 29-17 (.630)

2012 CvC Classic
Subregional Round at Evansville, IN
EVANSVILLE 77, Buffalo 72

2K Sports Classic
Championship Semifinals at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Alabama 70, Oregon State 69
Purdue 73, Villanova 69

Battle 4 Atlantis
Opening Round at campus sites
LOUISVILLE 80, Samford 45
STANFORD 85, Alcorn State 50

Cancun Challenge
at campus sites
DePAUL 81, Gardner-Webb 64
IOWA 82, Howard 56
WICHITA STATE 84, Western Carolina 61

CBE Hall of Fame Classic
Regional Round at Lawrence, KS
KANSAS 87, Chattanooga 53

Charleston Classic
1st Round at TD Arena, Charleston, SC
Baylor 80, Boston College 58
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 72, St. John's 71
Colorado 70, Dayton 66
Murray State 64, Auburn 55

Global Sports Hoops Showcase
Round Robin at Laramie, WY
North Carolina Central 63, Southern 58
WYOMING 78, South Dakota 59

Joe Cipriano Nebraska Classic
Round Robin at Lincoln, NE
Valparaiso 61, NEBRASKA 60

Legends Classic
Regional Rounds at campus sites
GEORGIA 66, Southern Miss 61
INDIANA 79, Sam Houston State 51
UCLA 77, James Madison 56

Nation of Coaches Classic
Round Robin at Richmond, VA
RICHMOND 78, Hampton 55

NUCDF Basketball Challenge
Round Robin at San Diego, CA
SAN DIEGO 78, Cal State Northridge 70
Tulsa 83, Northern Kentucky 59

Puerto Rico Tip-Off
1st Round at Coliseo de Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR
Oklahoma State 71, Akron 70
Massachusetts 80, Providence 73
NC State 72, Penn State 59
Tennessee 75, UNC Asheville 68

Non-Conference
AMERICAN 66, Mount St. Mary's 53
ARIZONA 67, Utep 56
Bethune-Cookman 81, NEW ORLEANS 68
CAL POLY 76, Northern Colorado 66
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE 70, Brown 61
DREXEL 67, Illinois State 64
JACKSONVILLE STATE 75, Alabama A&M 53
MINNESOTA 74, Tennessee State 57
NEW MEXICO STATE 77, Southeastern Louisiana 56
Norfolk State 87, LONGWOOD 71
NORTHWESTERN 80, Mississippi Valley State 59
PORTLAND 75, Idaho State 69
Saint Mary's 73, UTAH STATE 68
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 72, McNeese State 68
TCU 67, Smu 60
TENNESSEE TECH 74, Coastal Carolina 71
TEXAS A&M 75, Prairie View A&M 48
VIRGINIA TECH 85, Vmi 64
Weber State 78, SAN JOSE STATE 73