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Marco D'Angelo | NFL Side Thu, 11/15/12 - 8:25 PM
double-dime bet 305 MIA 2.5 (-110) Hilton vs 306 BUF
PLAY: MIAMI
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Thursday Night Football and we have Miami traveling to play Buffalo. We have talked about it many times how the road teams on Thursday Games are at a disadvantage with the short week and travel. Although that is true the one spot where it is not as big of a disadvantage is when they play a division rival because they play them every year twice a year so they already know what to expect which makes their preparation time easier. Such is the case here. Also Miami played their worst game of the year last week as they looked totally unprepared against Tennessee as they fell behind early and it just kept getting worse. The main thing that did them in was the 4 TO's as once they fell behind they were forced to press and things just got uglier. So what's different this week? Well teams that got embarrassed like that usually follow up with one of their best efforts because no one likes to look that bad. Miami is sitting at 4-5 and can get back to 500 tonight with a win and prior to last week's game Miami had won 3 of it's last 4 games and that was done playing 3 of those 4 on the road. Miami owns the much better defense and is getting points and guys that has been a recipe for successful sports betting since I was skinny and had hair…yes that long ago!! Buffalo looked like they played a great game last week against New England only losing 37-31 as a 13.5 point underdog but it was more of New England being flat as the Patriots were coming off their bye week which was off of their 45-7 Win in London and they were playing a Buffalo team they already beat in Buffalo earlier in the year 52-28. Do you really think New England took Buffalo seriously last week? Buffalo has given up 35 or more points in 5 of 9 games this year. Only 3 teams failed to score at least 21 points on them and that was Kansas City , Cleveland and Arizona. Those are 3 very bad offenses. We will back the Dolphins getting 2.5 as I have them winning this game outright 27-20.
TAKE: MIAMI as MARCO'S THURSDAY FOOTBALL TV MASSACRE
4 Unit Play. #537. Take NC-Central -4.5 over Southern AM (Thursday @ 6:30pm est).
4 Unit Play. #546. Take Northern Kentucky +6.5 over Tulsa (Thursday @ 7:30pm est).
4 Unit Play. #509. Take Southern Miss +3.5 over Georgia (Thursday @ 8pm est).
Game of the Day
North Carolina vs Virginia 8pm
5-Units Under 62 @ Heritage
Virginia is not an explosive offense. This 62 point total is the highest total they have had all season. That is actually an understatement The Virginia Cavs haven't had a total over 60 points since their 2005 bowl game! Yes, 7 season. This isn't a bowl game and neither team has had an extra week to prepare, yet we are getting a total of 63. Virginia is currently using a 2 QB system and although they have put up decent numbers the last couple weeks its not something you expect to continue. Rocco the veteran QB is junior that can be describe as inconsistent. Sims is a freshman Alabama transfer and is atheltic but young and inexperienced. Neither would dominate this game even if they were the full time starter. Now for UNC, they have been putting up big points but most of these big numbers come at home. I like UNC's offense, and I think they should be favored in this spot. But Virginia is a defensive team ranked 33rd in total defense will slow down this offense of UNC, but more importantly, UVA's offense can really struggle at times. I see this game playing out a lot like last years meeting a 17-28 game, with each team struggling on 3rd down. I don't think either team scores more than 30 points in this one and thats why I have it going under. Over the last 7 meetings, the Over has only cashed one time.
North Carolina State has been listed as the favorite to take the ACC Title this season and they got off to an impressive start to begin their 2012 campaign with a very convincing 38 point win over Miami of Ohio last Friday. The Wolfpack had six different players reach double figure scoring outputs as they managed to post a very impressive 97 points on the scoreboard in their first game of the season. The Nittany Lions won’t pose much more of a threat to N.C. State in their game today and it will likely be blown away just like Miami of Ohio was last week. Penn State is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall and just 1-4 in their last 4 non-conference matchups. Penn St. did begin this season on a positive note by beating St. Francis of Pennsylvania by 7 points, but this Wolfpack squad is on a totally different level from the Red Flash of St. Francis. Going back to last season the Nittany Lions have dropped 7 of their last 10 games by an average margin of 13 points per game and they were 1-5-1 ATS in those loses. North Carolina State is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS victory.
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