11-18-12

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Green Sheet


************************************************** ***************
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 NEW ENGLAND (-9½) over Indianapolis
RATING 4 CAROLINA (+1½) over Tampa Bay
RATING 3 OAKLAND (+4½) over New Orleans
RATING 2 NY JETS (+3½) over St. Louis
RATING 1 ARIZONA (+10) over Atlanta

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Coach Thompson's International Club, Inc

Week 11

( Hot Games To Bet On = Atlanta -9.5, New England -9.5 and San Diego +8.5 )

Miami +1 - 5% Of Bankroll

Atlanta -9.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

Jacksonville +15 - 5% Of Bankroll

Oakland +4.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

New England -9.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

Carolina +1 - 5% Of Bankroll

N.Y. Jets +3.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

San Diego +8.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

Pittsburgh +3.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

Total Winning % Before Week 11 = +107.5%

GRAND TOTAL For Week 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 = + 107.5%
WEEK 10 ( 7-3 )
WEEK 9 ( 2-4 )
WEEK 8 ( 8-1 )
WEEK 7 ( 4-4 )
WEEK 6 ( 4-0 )
WEEK 5 ( 3-5 )
WEEK 4 ( 5-2 )
WEEK 3 ( 3-3 )
Grand Total ( 36 - 22 )

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Wildcat (NY POST)
15-5

last week 1-1

Packers - 3 1/2
Colts +9 1/2

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Steele Trap
1-1 last week
12-8 for the yr

Pats - 9 1/2
Panthers + 1 1/2

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MS. Charleen
19-11 63%

Bills--winner Thursday Night
Lions + 3 1/2
Tampa - 1 1/2

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Dave Blezow
2-8 Locks of the year-Saints -5

10-19 3 bb-saints/packers/bengals

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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 11
by Jason Logan

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 11:

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 44)

Cardinals’ blitz-happy defense vs. Falcons’ WR one-on-one dominance

Arizona defensive coordinator Ray Horton loves to unleash hell, blitzing nearly 40 percent of the time this season. It’s worked out pretty well for the Cardinals' stop unit, which ranks ninth in yards allowed. That chaotic brand of defense has forced nine interceptions, seven fumbles and sacked opposing QBs 27 times – third most in the NFC.

Bringing the pressure may bite Arizona in the butt versus the Falcons, though. They don’t call Atlanta’s QB “Matty Ice” because he sported a Rob Van Winkle flat-top as a kid. Ryan is has some of the best one-on-one options in the game in Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones, who is expected to play Sunday, as well as a deadly dump-off in RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Cue the Hall & Oates.

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 43.5)

Browns’ takeaways vs. Cowboys’ giveaways

After gift wrapping turnovers like a bakery at Christmas through the first eight weeks of the season, Dallas has toned down the giveaways in its last two games. The Cowboys, who lead the NFC with 13 interceptions and have fumbled away the ball six times, have not committed a turnover in the past two games. As long as Dallas isn’t choking itself out with these mistakes, it can be one of the better teams in the league.

However, the Cowboys might not want to relax against the Browns Sunday. Cleveland doesn’t do many things well, but it does have a nose for the football on defense, picking off 10 passes – tied for second in the AFC – and scooping up six fumbles this season. Corner Joe Haden is expected to play and will be assigned to Cowboys WR Dez Bryant. The Browns have five interceptions and two recovered fumbles (four forced) versus NFC East foes Philadelphia and New York already this season.

New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders (+4.5, 54.5)

Dennis Allen’s familiarity vs. Joe Vitt’s inexperience

Raiders head coach Dennis Allen knows a little something about the Saints, serving as the team’s defensive backs coach from 2008 to 2010, including the Super Bowl run in 2009, under now-suspended Sean Payton. New Orleans had nothing but great things to say about Allen this week, tabbing the Oakland coach as a “sharp individual”.

If Allen is as sharp as they say – and he is – expect him to use all his inside info about the Saints’ schemes to help his team. Vitt, New Orleans interim head coach, has his squad on a roll after handing Atlanta its first loss of the year last weekend. However, Vitt isn’t reinventing the wheel in New Orleans and is likely using similar signs and calls when it comes to Peyton’s game plans. Expect Allen to pick up on a few familiar things before this one is over.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 39)

Bears’ returner Devin Hester vs. Niners’ poor kick coverage

Who needs a starting QB when you have Devin Hester returning kicks? Granted, the Bears' dynamic return man hasn’t been leaving would-be tacklers in the dust, slowed by injury this season, but we’re talking about the greatest returner in NFL history. And, we’re talking about Monday Night Football. Hester shines in the national spotlight, saving his biggest runs for the biggest stage.

San Francisco is drum tight on defense, ranking among the Top 10 in all major statistical categories. The one spot in which the Niners leak is on kick and punt returns. The 49ers are allowing foes to average 28.8 yards per kickoff return (second worst in the NFL) and 9.6 yards per punt return including a TD in Week 1. On top of those dismal numbers, San Francisco was psyched out by two fake punts against St. Louis last week.

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 11's Best Prop Plays
by Sean Murphy

After a disappointing 1-3 showing last week, we're now 23-17 inside the Prop Shop this season. Time to get some of that back in Week 11. Here are four picks to click Sunday.

Most passing yards

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)

Even with a depleted receiving corps, we'll see Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense shine coming out of the bye week.

Of course, that's not a stretch when you consider how banged-up the Lions are in the secondary. Just last week, they allowed a struggling Christian Ponder to throw for 221 yards and two touchdowns in a double-digit loss to the Vikings.

Matt Stafford has been piling up the passing yardage, but the Lions will have to do something to keep the Packers offense off the field Sunday. That means a healthy dose of their ground game.

Take: Rodgers

Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) vs. Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams)

Mark Sanchez continues to take a lot of heat from the growing number of Jets critics. He hasn't responded well to adversity in the past and he's admittedly in a tough spot with an extremely weak supporting cast around him. This doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back spot against an aggressive and underrated Rams defense.

Sam Bradford has thrown for over 200 yards in four straight games and has his favorite target back in the fold in Danny Amendola. There's little reason to expect a slowdown from Bradford against a struggling Jets secondary.

Take: Bradford

Most rushing yards

LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins)

With Michael Vick sidelined, you have to think that Andy Reid will finally give in and hand Shady McCoy a heavier workload. The explosive back is in excellent form, having gained 201 yards on only 35 carries over the last two weeks.

Redskins rookie RB Alfred Morris has been terrific at times this season but has sputtered lately, gaining only 135 yards on the ground over his last two games. The Eagles defense should come to play this week and I'm confident in their ability to bottle up Morris.

Take: McCoy

Most pass receptions

A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs)

The Chiefs offense is stuck in neutral and that has a lot to do with the ineffectiveness of QB Matt Cassel.

Dwayne Bowe has suffered as a result, catching four passes or less in three of his last four games. To make matters worse, he's been limited in practice due to a thigh injury, so I'm not counting on a breakout performance Sunday.

A.J. Green continues to be a steady contributor in the Bengals offense, hauling in at least seven catches in six of nine games this season. He has 27 catches in four road games and should continue his assault at Arrowhead Stadium this week.

Take: Green

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NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 11

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 11's action.

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5, 43.5)

Philadelphia suffered its fifth straight defeat with Sunday's 38-23 loss to Dallas and now limps into Washington on Sunday without the services of QB Michael Vick (concussion), according to multiple reports. Nick Foles will get the nod after completing 22 of 32 pass attempts for 219 yards with a touchdown and an interception in relief of Vick last week. Redskins feature back Alfred Morris, who is seventh in the league with 793 rushing yards, will look to exploit an Eagles defense which is allowing 4.5 yards per carry during the team's losing skid. Philadelphia has played under the total in its last six road games.

Green Bay at Detroit (3.5, 51.5)

The Packers look for their fifth consecutive win when they visit Detroit on Sunday. Green Bay has owned Detroit, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings. Aaron Rodgers has caught fire, throwing for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. But the Pack will be without team sack leader Clay Matthews, who has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in Detroit.

Arizona at Atlanta (-9.5, 44)

Atlanta was the last NFL team clinging to perfection until a 31-27 loss at New Orleans last week while the Cardinals are coming off a much-needed bye week after losing five straight. Five of Arizona's nine games (three wins, two losses) have been decided by seven points or fewer, while the Falcons are 5-1 in such games. John Skelton is expected to make another start at QB for the Cards as Kevin Kolb will miss his fourth straight game with rib and shoulder injuries. The Arizona defense ranks second in the league against the pass, which should give the Cardinals a fighting chance against the Falcons' high-flying offense. These teams have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (1, 49)

The Buccaneers have won four of their past five games to surge back into the NFC playoff picture. Tampa Bay's unexpectedly explosive offense has put up 28 or more points in five straight games, thanks to the emergence of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is the only player in the NFL with over 800 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards. Tampa Bay's first four games were decided by a touchdown or less, but its past five have featured an average margin of 14.8 points. The Bucs have played over the total in their last six overall.

Cleveland at Dallas (-9.5, 43.5)

The Cowboys haven't registered back-to-back victories since a four-game winning streak in November 2011, but they have a golden chance against the Browns, who are trying to avoid a franchise-record 12th consecutive road loss. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (foot) is expected to miss his fifth straight game, putting Felix Jones in line for another start. Browns CB Joe Haden (oblique) missed practice Thursday and is a game-time decision for Sunday’s contest. Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.

New York Jets at St. Louis (-3.5, 38.5)

New York is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards and has been held to 10 points or fewer in four of its six losses. Mark Sanchez has thrown nearly as many interceptions (nine) as touchdowns (10) and went just 9-of-22 for 124 yards and a pick in the 28-7 loss at Seattle last week. Steven Jackson, who rushed over 100 yards last week in San Francisco, could have a big day against a New York defense that ranks 30th against the run. These teams have played over the total in four of their last five meetings.

Jacksonville at Houston (-15, 40.5)

The Texans have rebounded from their only loss of the season with a vengeance, winning three straight while allowing just one touchdown and outscoring their opponents 77-28. Since defeating the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, Jacksonville has given its fans little to cheer about, going 0-6 while scoring more than 15 points only once. Houston prevailed 27-7 in Week 2 against the Jags, who gained a franchise-low 117 yards in the loss. But surprisingly, Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.

Cincinnati at Kansas City (3.5, 43.5)

The quarterback carrousel continues for the Chiefs, who are forced to play Matt Cassel for a third straight game while Brady Quinn recovers from a concussion. The Chiefs can’t score regardless of who is under center (16.2 ppg – 30th) and compound the issue by having the worst turnover differential in the league (-20). The only good news from Monday's loss to the Steelers was that Kansas City held a lead in regulation for the first time – ending the league’s longest streak of futility since 1929. The Bengals are coming off a big victory against the defending Super Bowl-champion New York Giants last week but have a few injury issues on defense. Standout rookie free agent LB Vontaze Burfict, who is second on the team with 62 tackles, is questionable due to an elbow injury. CB Nate Clements (knee) and S Reggie Nelson (hamstring) are also questionable.

New Orleans at Oakland (4.5, 54.5)

The Saints’ offense could be in for another big day Sunday when it visits Oakland. Drew Brees has owned the Raiders, passing for 1,248 yards, 13 TDs and no interceptions in his last six games against Oakland – all wins. The Raiders’ stop unit has surrendered 97 points over the last two weeks and is now allowing a league-worst 31.6 points per game. Running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are both dealing with high ankle sprains and are questionable. The Saints have won 13 straight November games and have covered in five of their last six overall.

San Diego at Denver (-8.5, 48.5)

The Broncos posted one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history when they rallied from a 24-point halftime deficit to defeat the Chargers 35-24 at San Diego earlier in the season. The Chargers turned the ball over six times in the game, five of those coming in the second half. With Peyton Manning back in Pro Bowl form, Denver has won four straight and could put a stranglehold on the division title if it makes it five in row on Sunday. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Indianapolis at New England (-9.5, 54.5)

The Colts are 5-1 since head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia as his situation has galvanized the team. However, Indianapolis does have a few key injuries to deal with this week. Linebacker Dwight Freeney has been less than 100 percent for most of the season and the Colts placed CB Jerraud Powers on IR earlier in this week. While the Patriots continue to score with ease, leading the NFL in scoring average at 33.2 points, the defense ranks 29th against the pass and 25th overall. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (3.5, 40)

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of Monday’s overtime win against Kansas City with a shoulder injury and has been ruled out against the Ravens. Veteran signal-caller Byron Leftwich, who hasn’t started a game since 2009, has been named Big Ben's replacement. While Roethlisberger’s absence will help the Ravens’ defense, Joe Flacco will still have to go up against the best secondary in the league. Baltimore dominated the Raiders last Sunday in a 55-20 victory, scoring three touchdowns in the passing game, two in the running game and two on special teams. The under is 7-0 in Pittsburgh’s last seven home games.

Chicago at San Francisco (OFF)

Off-field news has dominated the headlines leading up to this Monday night clash. Quarterbacks Alex Smith and Jay Cutler were each knocked out of their respective games last week with concussions and on Thursday news broke that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh was undergoing a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat. Sportsbooks have been keeping their lines off the board, waiting for an update on the extent of the injuries to both starting QBs before making a decision. Cutler was officially ruled out of action by the team Friday afternoon, which means Jason Campbell will be under center. San Francisco and Chicago rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed with 14.1 and 14.8, respectively. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

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Today's CFL Picks

Toronto at Montreal

The Argonauts look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Toronto is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (11/17)

Game 491-492: Toronto at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 114.464; Montreal 114.449 Dunkel Line: Even; 60 Vegas Line: Montreal by 5 1/2; 55 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5 1/2); Over

Game 493-494: Calgary at BC (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 118.746; BC 125.650 Dunkel Line: BC by 7; 47 Vegas Line: BC by 6 1/2; 51 1/2 Dunkel Pick: BC (-6 1/2); Under

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DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 11 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS: 0-1 (.000)
ATS Vary Units: 0-1 (.000)
Over/Under: 0-1 (.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 0-1 (.000)

Season
Straight Up: 83-55 (.601)
ATS: 64-80 (.444)
ATS Vary Units: 292-463 (.387)
Over/Under: 77-66 (.538)
Over/Under Vary Units: 309-232 (.571)

Sunday, November 18, 2012
ATLANTA 26, Arizona 12
DALLAS 24, Cleveland 14
Green Bay 30, DETROIT 29
Cincinnati 23, KANSAS CITY 17
ST. LOUIS 21, N.Y. Jets 19
WASHINGTON 25, Philadelphia 22
Tampa Bay 30, CAROLINA 25
HOUSTON 34, Jacksonville 6
New Orleans 41, OAKLAND 30
DENVER 34, San Diego 18
NEW ENGLAND 30, Indianapolis 20
PITTSBURGH 21, Baltimore 20

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CFL
Long Sheet

Week 21

Sunday, November 18

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TORONTO (10 - 9) at MONTREAL (11 - 7) - 11/18/2012, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 7-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 8-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CALGARY (13 - 6) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (13 - 5) - 11/18/2012, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing on a Sunday over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 9 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-5 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-4 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Write-Up

Week 21

Conference finals, CFL playoffs
Keep in mind the two home teams here had a bye last weekend.......

Toronto (10-9) @ Montreal (11-7)-- Toronto scored 31-43-42 points in winning last three games to get here; Argonauts lost two of three vs Montreal this year, upsetting Als 23-20 (+4) here in Week 5, then losing 31-10 (+3.5) in Week 13, 27-12 (+2.5) at home three weeks after that. Argos covered six of their last seven road games; they are 6-2 in last eight games as an underdog. Montreal is 7-2 at home this year, 4-5 vs spread as a home favorite- they got upset here in first playoff game LY- they're 0-6 this year when scoring less than 27 points. Last four Toronto games went over the total; six of last eight Alouette games stayed under.

Calgary (13-6) @ British Columbia (13-5)-- Stampeders won last five games- they're 5-2 in last seven road games, 5-1 vs spread as underdog- they lost two of three against BC this year, losing 34-8 (-2.5) at home in Week 5, 27-22 (+4.5) here in Week 15, then they pounded Lions 41-20 (-3.5) at home three weeks ago. Defending champion Lions won last six home games, covering five; BC is only team left in playoffs that won game in LY's playoffs, but Stamps are playing best ball of season now. Obviously it helps Montreal/BC to have had last week off to regroup. Seven of last eight Calgary games went over the total; under is 4-2-1 in last seven Lion games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 21

Trend Report

1:00 PM
TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Toronto is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 8 games when playing at home against Toronto

4:30 PM
CALGARY vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Calgary is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary