11-21-12

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Nelly's Wednesday Night NBA Knockout - Nov. 21 (1* Charlotte)

11/21/12 Nelly's 1* #502 Charlotte Bobcats -2 over Toronto Raptors 6:05 PM CT
Most still perceive the Bobcats as one of the bottom feeders in the NBA but Charlotte is likely to have as many wins as last season by the end of November. Charlotte is 5-4 on the season including 4-2 at home. The Bobcats have not played too many elite teams yet but they have solid home wins over the Pacers, Mavericks and Bucks and they gave 8-2 Memphis a tough game last week. Kemba Walker has shown great improvement in his second season and rookies Jeffery Taylor and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist have made immediate positive impacts. The front court is fierce with the additions of Brendan Haywood and the emergence of Byron Mullens as well as contributions from Bismack Biyombo. Ben Gordon is the most recognizable player on the roster but he has drifted to a background role and he has been productive in limited minutes while Ramon Sessions provides stability in the backcourt. Charlotte may not be ready to make a playoff push but this team is no longer a pushover. Toronto is just 3-8 on the season through a demanding early season schedule. The Raptors will be playing a seventh road game in the first three weeks of the season, having gone 1-5 in the first six away games. This will be a fourth game in five days with three of the four games on the road with fairly significant travel after last night’s loss in Philadelphia. In the lone road win Toronto scored just 74 points but the defense has been the issue for the Raptors, allowing over 100 points per game on 46 percent shooting. Charlotte meanwhile has been solid defensively and if the Bobcats ever develop a 3-point threat on offense they might work into the postseason conversation. Toronto has allowed 40 percent 3-point shooting so there will be a chance for Charlotte to improve in that area tonight. This is a grueling situation for the Raptors and Charlotte is not being valued like the superior team despite the early returns suggesting that they are indeed the far better team in this match-up.
Nelly's rates our regular basketball selections 1, 2, and 3-stars. It is a long season so please have a money management plan and be conservative and conscientious with your wagers, Thanks for playing with Nelly's Sportsline and best of luck.

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BEST Basketball - Wednesday, Nov. 21

10* #582 Michigan -2.5 over Pittsburgh 8:30 PM CT



Bobby Dalton Basketball - Wednesday, Nov. 21

10* #579/580 'UNDER 136.5' Delaware at Kansas State 6:00 PM CT
5* #544 Denver -2.5 over Colorado State 8:00 PM CT

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Kelso's
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
15 Units
Kansas State (-8) over Delaware
7:00 PM -- Madison Square Garden - New York, NY
Kansas State (4-0) -8 over Delaware (2-1) Prediction: Kansas State by 14-15 Semifinal Game of NIT Tip-Off Championship Played in New York City at Madison Square Garden (22,000) Starting Time: 7:05 TV: ESPNU Comments: There is no dispute Kansas State has compiled its 4-0 record against weak opposition, beating North Florida, 74-55, Alabama-Huntsville, 87-26, Lamar, 79-55, and North Dakota, 85-52, but that does not mean this is not an outstanding Wildcats team. First-year coach Bruce Weber, who came to K-State from Illinois, has this team in high gear and playing defense as if it invented it, giving up an average of just 47.0 points per game. There is no doubt this will be a bit of a test for Kansas State because this is the best team Delaware has put on the court in years and it comes into this game off an impressive 59-53 win at Virginia. The Blue Hens other win came on a neutral floor against Pennsylvania, 84-69, in a game that followed a season-opening 73-66 loss at LaSalle. The bottom line: Kansas State is more talented, more athletic, quicker and faster than Delaware and these elements, combined with that lockdown defense, should put the Wildcats into the winner’s circle.


10 Units
Colorado State (+3) over Denver
9:00 PM -- Magness Arena
Colorado State (2-0) +3 over DENVER (1-2) Prediction: Colorado State by 7-8 Played in Denver, Colorado, at Magness Arena (7,200) Starting Time: 9:05 TV: ROOT Sports Comments: I have nothing but the utmost respect for Denver, which has talent, experience and a strong home court bias working for it, but the Pioneers appear to be up against it in this one. Colorado State returns four starters from last year’s 20-12 NCAA team, has an outstanding coach in Larry Eustachy, who was at Southern Miss last season, and appears to have just too much talent for Denver. My suspicions are, as promising as Denver might be, it does not have the kind of talent it takes to beat good games. In its last game, Denver was a 1 ½-point favorite over California and lost 72-61. They are in exactly the same kind of spot tonight, home favorites over a team that has far more talent.


10 Units
Bobcats (-2) over Raptors
7:00 PM -- Time Warner Cable Arena
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (5-4) -2 over Toronto Raptors (3-8) Prediction: Bobcats by 9-10 Starting Time: 7:05 TV: Sports Net Canada, Sports South Comments: Charlotte opened the season just as it closed out last year—opening 1-3 and looking somewhat like the team that went a shockingly miserable 7-59 to record the worst percentage losing record in NBA history. Then, something happened. The Bobcats started winning and come into this game standing 4-1 in their last five outings and playing like a real NBA team. Charlotte is 4-2 at home and tonight faces a Toronto team that last night lost at Philadelphia and which is now 1-5 on the road where it is giving up an average of 101.5 points per game and permitting opposing teams to hit 40.0% from 3-point range. I rest my case.

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4_SEASONS Power Play of the Day YTD record 9-9
MARQUETTE -4.5
NORTH CAROLINA -22
BELMONT -17.5

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sportsbookbreakers

4-STAR New York -2 over DALLAS - After a nice little start to the season, the luster has come off this Dallas mis mashed squad. Meanwhile the Knicks continue to play well. This is a cheap line to grab New York on here.
Dallas is coming off a 105-101 loss in overtime to Golden State. However they were down double digits earlier in that game. The Mavericks are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since November 08, 2006 off a loss of four points or fewer at home in which they trailed by double digits.

That happened despite blocking 11 Golden State shots in that game. The Mavericks are 0-6-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since March 17, 2005 after a home loss in which they blocked at least 10 shots.

New York is now getting this Dallas team coming off that overtime game. The Knicks are 7-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since March 15, 2009 with at most one day of rest after playing on the road when their opponent is off an overtime game.

New York played last night and won 102-80 in New Orleans. They did it by hoisting plenty of threes, going 14-of-36 from beyond the arc. Teams which attempted at least 34 three pointers last game and shot more than 38% are 65-47-2 ATS.

As such they didn't get to the foul line as much going just 14-of-19 there. The Knicks are 6-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since November 14, 2008 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New York 96, DALLAS 88

4-STAR New York and Dallas Under 196 - The thing about the Knicks is they are better defensively than expected. That hold true to a point with Dallas as well. With no rest on the Knicks part, grab the under here.

These teams played two weeks ago with both rested and New York won 104-94 as a home favorite. The Knicks are 0-8 OU (-14.4 ppg) since January 2000 as a favorite when facing a non-conference team they beat as a favorite in their first match-up of the season.

Dallas did lead by a bucket in that game at halftime. The Mavericks are 0-6 OU (-11.8 ppg) since March 09, 1997 as a home dog when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led at the half.

Monday, Dallas lost to Golden State 105-101 in overtime. They had 12 steals in that game. The Mavericks are 0-10 OU (-13.8 ppg) since March 09, 1997 as a home dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had at least 12 steals.

New York meanwhile won last night, 102-80. They had just 10 turnovers in that game while attempting 83 shots. The Knicks are 0-9 OU (-9.4 ppg) since April 11, 1999 as a road favorite with at most one day of rest after a win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

Plenty of those attempts were threes. They made 14-of-36 of them in the game. The Knicks are 0-6 OU (-12.9 ppg) since December 15, 2008 on the road after a double digit road win in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New York 96, DALLAS 88

4-STAR PHOENIX -2 over Portland - Phoenix's home schedule has been tough thus far and they've stayed competitive in every game there. With plenty of rest here we expect them to come out fresh and running and get a victory over a inconsistent Portland team.

Portland won their last game, 102-94 over Chicago. Wes Matthews and Nicolas Batum each had 21 to lead them in that game. The Trailblazers are 0-10-1 ATS (-5.2 ppg) since December 07, 2009 on the road with at least a day of rest after a win at home in which Lamarcus Aldridge was not the Trailblazers' high scorer.

Aldridge had 18 and it wasn't because of a lack of minutes as he played 40 in the win. The Trailblazers are 0-6 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since March 11, 2011 on the road with at least a day of rest after a win in which Lamarcus Aldridge played more than 40 minutes.

Portland made 39 buckets in that game and had just 15 assists in the game. The Trailblazers are 0-9-1 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since November 16, 2009 on the road after a win in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted.

That went along with the 16 turnovers they committed. The Trailblazers are 0-9 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since February 19, 2008 with two or more days of rest after a game in which they had more turnovers than assists.

Batum had four turnovers in that game and just two assists. The Trailblazers are 0-11 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since April 30, 2009 on the road with at least a day of rest after a win in which Nicolas Batum had more turnovers than assists.

Phoenix's last game came against Miami while they lost 97-88. They allowed 53% shooting to the Heat in that game. The Suns are 10-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since February 23, 2011 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PHOENIX 105, Portland 96

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Norm's Clubhouse

Today's Selections
November 21, 2012

1-3 last night....now 23-17

NBA

LAC +4 1/2 OKC
NY Knicks +1 1/2 Dallas
Golden St. -2 1/2 Brooklyn

College

Marquette minus the points against USC
Youngstown versus Duquesne
Illinois minus the points against Bulter

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Bruce Marshall

Raptors / Bobcats Under

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Sports Betting Professor Original NBA system play:
509. San Antonio Spurs -1*


8-1 (89%) last 9 original system NBA plays

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Winning Points

preferred

cbb. Colorado st.

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Indian Cowboy

3-Unit Play. #529. Take Auburn +4.5 over Boston College (Wednesday @ 4pm est).

3-Unit Play. #595. Take Rider +8.5 over SMU (Wednesday @ 8:30pm est).

3-Unit Play. #577. Take Idaho State +7 over Utah (Wednesday @ 9:30pm est).

The goal is always to focus on teams that are undervalued. Auburn in my ratings is a top 150 team that Coach Barbee has going in the right direction. The team is more veteran with two seniors leading the way and a lot was said about this team went they went on the road to beat Charleston who is a top 150 team. I have BC as a top 200 team who lost to this same Charleston team on the road by 4 points. And, BC's only win comes against Florida International a top 300 team at home by 14 points. I think the points are fortunate here but I actually think BC wins Outright. Idaho State has lost to Utah State by 8 and Portland by 3. I have Idaho State as a top 300 team and the irony is that I have Utah as a top 300 team as well. Utah fell short to top 250 Sacramento State by 3 points and I can see them doing the same here against Idaho State. Although Idaho State does not have a win overall, they have played two decent teams and possibly better teams than Utah and hung in the spread. Don't be surprised to see Idaho State hang in there most of the way in this contest. Rider should do well here coming off a tough loss against South Carolina. They are a team int he top 200 facing a team also in the top 200 in SMU. I think Rider gained a lot from the South Carolina loss and having 3 players scoring in double-digits is a positive for this team as well. Rider beat Robert Morris by 15 points who is a top 150 team and given that they face a top 200 team on the road against SMU I think they can be competitive against SMU here. Rider is top 100 in 3 point shooting and with Rider beating TCU and Texas State by 3 points a piece, I can see this game being a bit closer this evening. Given that Rider fell short by 12 points to a team 30 points better on the road than SMU, I like RIder to stay competitive against SMU as they come off a big win against a non-division one team. So, what we have today is Auburn that could potentially win Outright, Rider that should hang tough and likely lose by 3-4 and Idaho State who could lose by 2-3 points today.

4-Unit Play. #503. Take Over 186.5 Detroit vs. Orlando (Wednesday @ 7:05pm est).

4-Unit Play. #506. Take Over 183 Philadelphia vs. Cleveland (Wednesday @ 7:05pm est).

4-Unit Play. #524. Take Over 201 Portland vs. Phoenix (Wednesday @ 9:05pm est).

The Pistons have revenge coming into this game against the Magic. They had a tight contest at home and fell short to the Magic and now look for revenge in almost of a home and home. The last three times they have met the games have gone over as well. With Detroit coming off a big win against Boston by a score of 103-83 and now facing the Magic with revenge, I can see them winning Outright. The input of Kyle Singler into the lineup has made a huge difference as now Stuckey comes off the bench being the 6th man. Its a huge relief for Stuckey as he is able to play within himself and not have the pressure of carrying the team necessarily. Singler's length and the responsibilities he faced at Duke helps him in the starting role. I also like the fact that the Magic come off facing a very defensive oriented Hawks team and scored just 72 points in their last game. These elements make for a decent over here. Cleveland is without Kyrie Irving for some time. Teams have the ability of coming together immediately after a star's injury and in particular at home. With Kyrie's injury, I like Cleveland to step up offensively at home here. Keep in mind that Philly might be looking ahead to OKC in their next game. With a team coming together and a team possibly looking ahead it makes for a decent over here. The Over is 6-2 when the Sixers face a team with less than a 40% winning percentage meaning when they face teams that have less expectations games have a tendency to go over. Portland has put up greater than a 100 points in their last 3 games and they have revenge against Phoenix. Phoenix also comes off a game against a very good defensive team in Miami where they scored less than 90 points and now face a top 20 defense in Portland. I like Phoenix to bounce-back offensively and with Portland playing well on the offensive end themselves, I wouldn't be surprised if this game is high scoring today. The Over is 4-1 for Phoenix following a straight up loss and the Over is 4-1 for the Blazers following an ATS win.

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Teddy Covers

Hornets
Clippers

CFB Black Friday Big Ticket
Buffalo U

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NBA Basketball Premium Picks

-= TOP PLAY =-
NBA | Nov 21 '12 (7:35p)
San Antonio Spurs vs Boston Celtics San Antonio Spurs
-1½+100 at 5dimes


PURELOCK

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Patron 20k denver cbb

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Maddux
Pitt+3,
Col State +3,
Miami OH +6.5

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Sports Betting Professor 11/21 WED
509. San Antonio Spurs -1*

Rest of Games
505. Philadelphia 76ers -4
516. Oklahoma City Thunder -4
518. Houston Rockets -1