11-23-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Betting Weather Watch: Week 13

It's November. Which means keeping a close eye on the weather will be key moving forward with your college football handicapping. Here is our weather report for Friday's games.

Ohio at Kent State (-8.5, 60)

Site: Dix Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 55 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 16 mph.

Nebraska at Iowa (16.5, 49)

Site: Kinnick Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s under partly cloudy skies. But winds will gust out of the NW at 20 mph.

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan (20.5, 61.5)

Site: Rynearson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with a 45 percent chance of a rain/snow mix. Winds will blow out of the west at 20 mph.

Ball State at Miami (OH) (7, 61.5)

Site: Fred C. Yager Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 15 mph.

West Virginia at Iowa State (2.5, 68.5)

Site: Jack Trice Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and clear skies. Winds will blow out of the NW at 17 mph.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the day: Thunder at Celtics

Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics (+1, 196)

The Boston Celtics have dropped three of their last four and have been vulnerable at TD Garden, where they have lost half of their first six home games. The Oklahoma City Thunder showed they could fight off the best teams in the west by beating the Clippers on Wednesday and will be looking to kick the Celtics when they are down on Friday night. The Thunder have won three straight and eight of nine.

The Celtics are once again the worst rebounding team in the NBA but instead of making up for that deficiency with strong half court defense like they have in the past, Boston has allowed opponents to score over 100 points in each of its last five setbacks. Oklahoma City is one of the toughest teams in the league to defend with its combination of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and have put up 115.3 points in their last three wins.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, FSOK (Oklahoma City), CSNNE (Boston), NBATV

ABOUT THE THUNDER (9-3, 7-4-1 ATS): In addition to the dual threat that Durant and Westbrook provide, Kevin Martin has settled comfortably into the sixth man role for Oklahoma City, averaging 17.8 points. The Thunder could also hold an emotional edge over the Celtics thanks to the presence of center Kendrick Perkins, a fan and locker room favorite of Boston that was traded away to the Thunder in the middle of the 2010-11 season. Perkins was limited to seven points and five rebounds in his first trip back to TD Garden last season, but the Thunder managed a 97-88 victory behind 28 points from Durant.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (6-6, 3-7-2 ATS): Boston does not have anyone around with the size to battle Perkins on the interior, leaving that defensive assignment to Kevin Garnett. The more difficult matchups will be Paul Pierce against Durant and Rajon Rondo guarding Westbrook. Rondo collected 22 points and 15 assists on Wednesday but opposing point guard Tony Parker went for 26 points as the Celtics dropped a 112-100 decision at home to San Antonio. Boston is in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense, surrendering 99.3 points, and allowed the Spurs to shoot 58 percent on Wednesday.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Oklahoma City has taken three straight in the series and has won in its last three visits to TD Garden.

2. Rondo extended his streak of double-digit assists to 35 games on Wednesday.

3. Boston F Jeff Green, who came over from Oklahoma City in the Perkins trade, has been held to single digits in scoring in each of the last four games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LSU at Arkansas: What Bettors Need to Know

LSU at Arkansas (11, 51)

When Louisiana State and Arkansas met last season on the day after Thanksgiving, it was a battle between the No. 1 and No. 3 teams in the country. While the Tigers are still one of the best teams in the nation, there is slightly less at stake for the Razorbacks when they host LSU on Friday. The No. 7 Tigers still have a shot at a BCS bowl game while Arkansas is just hoping to play spoiler. The Razorbacks’ season took a bad turn early with a four-game losing streak in September and they officially fell out of bowl eligibility with a 45-14 loss at Mississippi State last Saturday. LSU should have no problem stopping an Arkansas team that ranks 90th in the nation in scoring offense but its vaunted defense is coming off its worst performance of the season last week at home against Ole Miss.

TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: LSU -11, O/U 51

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s under sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the NNW at 15 mph.

ABOUT LOUISIANA STATE (9-2, 5-2 SEC): The Tigers likely won’t have a return trip to the BCS championship game this January but have a good chance to play in a BCS bowl if they can get past the Razorbacks and finish with a higher BCS rating than one or two of their highly ranked conference mates. Keeping that dream alive will require fixing a secondary that allowed Bo Wallace of Ole Miss to pass for 310 yards last week. The Rebels also rushed for 147 yards in that contest and held a lead until Odell Beckham returned a punt back 89 yards in the fourth quarter. LSU ended up pulling out the 41-35 victory but gave up more points than they had to any opponent.

ABOUT ARKANSAS (4-7, 2-5): Going up against that suddenly suspect secondary will be Razorbacks quarterback Tyler Wilson, who leads the SEC in passing yardage at 302.8. But Wilson’s strong passing game has been hurt by turnovers and a rushing attack that ranks last in the SEC. On the other side of the ball, Arkansas has allowed 83 points in back-to-back losses. The Razorbacks gave up 505 total yards to Mississippi State in a 45-14 loss last weekend, including 203 on the ground. Wilson threw for 207 yards and a touchdown at LSU last season but Arkansas could not stop the Tigers on the ground in a 41-17 loss.

TRENDS:

* Razorbacks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. LSU is 50-4 against unranked teams under coach Les Miles.

2. The schools meet annually but will be playing in Fayetteville, Ark., for the first time since 1992. The Razorbacks had been holding their home games in the series in Little Rock.

3. Wilson needs 88 yards to break Arkansas’ career record, currently held by Ryan Mallet (7,493).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arizona State at Arizona: What Bettors Need to Know

Arizona State at Arizona (-3, 69)

Arizona sophomore Ka’Deem Carey looks to break the school’s single-season rushing record when the Wildcats host Arizona State on Saturday in the annual Territorial Cup. Carey leads the nation with 1,585 yards rushing, including 570 over the last two games, and is only 18 yards away from passing Trung Canidate’s school record of 1,602 yards set in 1999. The Sun Devils snapped a four-game losing skid and became bowl eligible with last Saturday’s 46-7 victory over Washington State, while Arizona is coming off a 34-24 win over Utah. The Wildcats rank second in the Pac-12 in total offense, while Arizona State boasts the second-best defense.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Arizona – 3, O/U 69.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s under clear skies. Winds will blow out of the ESE at 13 mph.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (6-5, 4-4 Pac-12): The Sun Devils’ defense dominated Washington State with seven sacks and only one rushing yard allowed. The stifling defense ranks first in the nation in sacks (4.3) and second in tackles for loss (8.9). Defensive tackle Will Sutton and linebackers Carl Bradford and Brandon Magee have combined for 26.5 sacks, and Sutton ranks fifth in the nation with 1.05 sacks per game. Sophomore quarterback Taylor Kelly threw for four touchdowns last Saturday against Washington State, finishing with 18 straight completions. Junior Chris Coyle needs five receptions to set the school record for tight end receptions in a season. The Sun Devils feature a strong run game with an average of 183.6 yards on the ground.

ABOUT ARIZONA (7-4, 4-4): The Wildcats have a 3,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard receiver and a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time in the same season with quarterback Matt Scott throwing for 3,008 yards, Austin Hill catching 68 passes for 1,119 yards and Carey tied for second nationally with 19 rushing touchdowns. Carey is looking to become the first Arizona player to win the national rushing title. Scott is averaging 345 yards in total offense to lead the Pac-12, but struggled at times last week against Utah after missing the previous game with a concussion. On defense, linebacker Marquis Flowers has a team-high 5.5 sacks and four takeaways in the last five games.

TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five Friday games.
* Over is 5-0 in Wildcats’ last five home games.
* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Sun Devils have outscored their opponents 124-63 in the first quarter.

2. The Wildcats are 6-1 and averaging 45.9 points at home.

3. Arizona leads the series 47-37-1 and has won three of four, including a 31-27 victory in Tempe last season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

Orlando tournament
--West Virginia's first two games (1-1) were both so one-sided its hard to tell how good WV is; only one kid played more than 21:00 Thursday in an execution of Marist. Davidson has five starters back from 25-8 team, but lost at New Mexico, Milwaukee to start season; they're very well-coached and had only one guy play more than 26 minutes vs Vandy in first round. SoCon teams are 12-9 vs spread away from home.

-- Oklahoma has five starters back from 15-16 team; they had 12-point lead at half last nite, held on to beat UTEP by 7 despite 12-20 shooting on line, 6-18 on arc. Gonzaga has four starters back from 26-7 team, but struggling with young Clemson side last night, which was first time they were challenged in a game. Sooners had two kids play more than 28:00; Gonzaga had three kids play 31+ minutes in game that was a struggle. Clemson had 13 offensive boards, led Zags by a point at halftime.

Atlantis tournament
-- Missouri lost 4 starters from LY, but UConn transfer Oriakhi is stud inside; Tigers beat Stanford 78-70 despite its starting guards shooting a dismal 8-32 from floor- they had three guys play 30+ minutes. Duke has four starters back from 27-7 team, they dispatched good Minnesota club by 18, shooting 54% from floor, 8-10 from arc. Duke's bench played 44 minutes total, not very much. ACC favorites are 9-4 away from home.

-- Louisville is 4-0 with three wins by 26+ points, but they struggled vs Northern Iowa's slowish pace last night, shooting 5-22 from arc, with 20 turnovers, way too manyfor team with three starters back from 30-10 squad. VCU has four starters back from 29-7 team; they made 13-22 from arc in fairly easy 78-65 upset of Memphis (up 14 at half) in first round. Big East single digit road favorites are 4-6 vs spread. A-16 single digit road underdogs are 6-7.

Anaheim tournament
-- Pacific has five starters back from 11-19 team; they upset Xavier in first round, playing 10 guys double digit minutes, but no one more than 28- they had lost first two games vs D-I teams, by 5 to Fresno, 2 to Oral Roberts. St Mary's has four starters back from 27-6 team; 6 of their 7 rotation guys are juniors/seniors. St Mary's won last meeting 80-65 back in '10; they beat injury-riddled Drexel by 12, despite going 3-12 on arc. Dellavedova/Holt, Gaels' two main guys, both played 36+ minutes.

-- Georgia Tech has two freshmen starting on team that has all 5 starters back, so they've upgraded talent, but they don't shoot well (39% in win over Rice, 3-18 from arc). Cal Bears have three starters back from 24-10 team, are 4-0 after surviving couple of technicals last night, rallying back from 6 down with 9:23 left to nip Drake by 3. Cal's three best guys had 35+ minutes. Crabbe is one of best guards in west. ACC underdogs are 6-3 against spread so far this season.

Great Alaskan Shootout
-- Belmont won by 7 at Stanford in its way to Alaska, holding Cardinal to 31% for night, 2-19 from arc; they start couple juniors, three seniors, have veteran team heading into their first year in OVC. Northeastern has pair of one-point wins (BU/Princeton) already, but also lost at home to Vermont; Huskies were 8-16 from arc, outscored Riverside 16-3 on foul line in 61-52 win. CAA single digit underdogs are 7-4 against spread.

-- Oral Roberts has three starters back from 27-7 team; they survived 19 turnovers to beat LMU by 9 last nite. ORU played four of its guys 30+ minutes, with star Niles (33 points) playing all 40. Charlotte scored last 11 points over final 4:30, beating Texas State 73-64 (-7) last night; 49ers start two frosh/three sophs, but talent has been upgraded. A-16 favorites are 6-4 away from home. ORU beat Xavier of A-16 by 16 last season.

Other games
-- Michigan played Burke/Hardaway 38:00 each Tuesday, two others 33 minutes in tough 67-62 win (down 4 at half) over Pitt; Wolverines made only 3-17 from arc, but are still over 40% for season. Kansas State subs played 121 out of possible 200 minutes in 66-63 win over Delaware, as new coach Weber searches for combos that work. Beilein won last three meetings with Weber when Weber was coach at Illinois. Big Dozen teams are 7-4 vs spread when number is 5 or less. Big X teams are 4-3.

-- Cincinnati is 4-0, playing one team (#232) ranked in top 300; Cincy has three starters back from 26-11 team that beat Oklahoma/Texas from Big X last year. Iowa State has two starters back from 23-11 team that beat UConn of Big East in NCAAs; they also have Michigan St transfer Lucious eligible to play PG. Big East favorites are 6-7 away from; Big X underdogs are 2-2. Iowa State lost its top three scorers from LY.

-- UNLV dispatched pair of stiffs to open season; they've return three starters from LY's 26-9 team, but brought in talented freshmen to take their place, not JC kids, as Rice builds more solid program. Oregon lost three starters from 24-10 team; Ducks are 4-0, thrashing Vanderbilt by 26, but they're turning ball over 23% of time, a bit much. MWC faves are 4-7; 4-0 when laying 15+ points, 0-7 when laying less. Pac-12 dogs are 5-5, 0-2 when getting more than five points.

-- Arkansas scored 91.7 ppg in beating three stiffs to start season; now that Arizona State finally has PG Carson eligibile, curious to see how the Sendek system does vs 40:00 of Hell. Hogs forced turnovers on 29.5% of possessions so far, but ASU is juge step up in class from those stiffs. Sun Devils return other 4 starters from LY, when lack of quality PG had them reeling to 10-21 season- they scored 80 ppg in a 3-0 start.

-- Creighton is shooting an amazing 68% inside arc thru four games, 41% outside arc; they're an offensive dynamo, scoring 85 ppg in 4-0 start that includes 77-60 win over UAB. Wisconsin missed PG Gasser in 74-56 loss at Florida, only good club Badgers faced so far; Ryan has 3 starters back from 26-10 team. Big Dozen teams are 7-4 vs spread when line is 5 or less points. MVC teams are 6-0. This has makings of NCAA tourney game; interesting contrast in styles.