11-24-12

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ATS LOCK

163 7-Rutgers
203 6-Rice
156 6-Northwestern
141 6- Vandy
219 5-L Monroe

Hoops
4 L Chicago
3 St. Louis

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Accuscore

College Football Picks: 13-5 past 5 weeks…3 New Picks

Analyst was 2-1 last week and has been incredibly accurate the last month and a half.

Duke +6.5 vs. Miami
The Blue Devils win this game outright in 46 percent of simulations, and cover 61 percent of the time. Miami will likely have a motivation issue after the school decided to self-impose another bowl game on Monday. This is after the Canes got a big win last week, and thought a win in this game would get them to the ACC title game. Now all of that has been taken away and this game is essentially meaningless. Duke on the other hand is playing for bowl positioning, and a .500 conference record, not insignificant things for the Blue Devils. On the field, Miami is very poor defensively against the pass on the road allowing a 160 QB rating and 276 yards on average. Conversely, Duke has averaged a 151 QB rating at home while throwing 18 touchdowns compared to just 3 interceptions.

Mississippi State +1 at Ole Miss
The Bulldogs win outright 56 percent of the time in simulations, and by 10 or more points a third of the time. They win by a field goal on average. This season we’ve learned that Mississippi State is a good team that can’t compete against elite teams. They lost three straight to Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU, all top 10 teams. In their other eight games they have won by an average score of 37.8 to 14.4. Ole Miss has played good teams close, but has lost all of those games. Rebel quarterback Bo Wallace has put up yardage including over 300 against LSU last week, but he has 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Mississippi State is the best in the SEC with a +16 turnover margin. Advantage: Bulldogs.

Troy +3 at Middle Tennessee State
This week’s computer pick is Troy at MTSU. The Trojans are getting a field goal, but are winning outright 52 percent of the time in simulations, and covering 57 percent of the time. This is a nice value pick, and Troy is actually 3-2 on the road this season. The computer has gone a combined 15-3 picking games ATS involving either of these two teams.

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Accuscore NCAAF 4*

Wake Forest
Mich ST
Illinois
Wisc
BYU/New Mex st over
New Mex/Col St over
Rice/Utep over
Troy

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POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Oreg St, Ohio St

3* Okl St, Rutgers, Clemson

2* Western Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia

[DaKid]

Big al

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4* Texas Tech +2.5
4* Mississippi St. +2
4* UCLA +2
3* Duke +6.5
3* Oregon St. +9.5
3* SMU +5
3* Florida +8.5

Opinion Clemson -3.5
Opinion UTEP -1

thanks for Big Al bud. not liking him being on all the dogs though

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5Lines

Total Line for 11/24/2012

(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Utah Jazz : o194
Cost: -110

Run Line for 11/24/2012

(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Utah Jazz : -2.5
Cost: -110

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Maddux Sports"

#721 - NCAAB - 10 units on Hofstra +7.5
#727 - NCAAB - 10 units on Nevada +7
#780 - NCAAB - 10 units on South Carolina -1

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Scott Spreitzer's CFB CONF KNOCKOUT GAME OF THE YEAR! *18-7 Run! - Saturday CFB!

I'm taking the points with La Tech on Saturday night. I was involved with both of these teams last weekend, playing on SJSU and against La Tech. The win over BYU was one of the biggest all time for the Spartan football program. While they got us the win, I wasn't impressed with the team in the second half as they played not to lose. After facing a suspect BYU offense, the bar goes way up when the Bulldogs roll into town. La Tech averages 581.3 yards per game, which tops the FBS standings. They're equally dangerous passing the football (5th) and running the football (12th), giving major headaches to defensive coordinators. If that's not enough, they have turned those yards into 52.3 ppg, which is also the best mark in college football. SJSU owns the much better defensive stats, but their offense, as we saw last weekend, leaves plenty to be desired on the ground. SJSU is all about the pass. They're 110th on the ground which means La Tech can give extra protection against the pass and not have to worry about "cheating-up" an extra defender. The Bulldogs are a perfect 5-0 on the road this season where they average over 48 ppg. They're on a 16-5 ATS run on the road, including a 10-1 ATS mark away from home against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Spartans are just 1-5 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record. La Tech lost to a very good USU team last week and I believe they're catching the Spartans at the right time. I'm taking the points with La Tech. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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OCAL
(4) Ohio State
(4) RUT/PIT UNDER
(4) ORE/OSU OVER

MARC LAWRENCE
GOM: OREGON STATE

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CHRIS JORDAN 300*

Ohio St - 4.5

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Tony George GOY…. Florida State

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Redd 60 dime
georgia,

Budin 50 dime
texas am,

Demarco 30 dime
fresno st

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Larry Ness' 10* 29-Club Play (signature release / 1st of CFB 2012)
My 10* 29-Club Play is on Texas Tech at 2:30 ET.


Baylor and Texas Tech square off at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday. These schools represent two of the nation’s best offenses, with Baylor ranking No. 2 in yards (565.6 YPG) and fifth in scoring (43.6 PPG). Texas Tech is not quite as prolific but the Red Raiders average 37.1 PPG on 495.5 YPG. The difference between the two offenses a is that Baylor has much more of a run/pass balance while QB Seth Doege (70.0% / 325.0 YPG / 35 TDs and 11 INTs), makes the Red Raiders the No. 1 passing team in CFB (362.2 YPG). As most must be aware, Baylor is coming off its stunning 52-24 upset of Kansas St last Saturday (Wildcats ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings at the time). No one could have predicted an effort like that from the Bears. Baylor began the season 3-0 but quickly fell from the national ranks by losing FOUR in a row (Bears defense allowed 70, 49, 56 and 35 points)and FIVE of its next six games. However, Baylor’s season was given “new life” with last week’s win. QB Nick Florence is not RG3 but he’s quite good. He’s completing 61.6% for an average of 342.9 YPG (27 TDs / 13 INTs) plus has over 400 yards rushing with 7 TDs. I talked earlier about Baylor’s offensive balance and its’ real, with a running game that averages 210.9 YPC on 5.0 YPC with 27 TDs (four players have more than 400 rushing yards). However, Baylor’s defense is a ‘nightmare,’ allowing the second-most yards of any FBS team (504.0 YPG) as well as 37.9 PPG. Baylor’s pathetic D is the major reason the 5-5 Bears still need one more win to become bowl eligible (if Bears don’t win here, they’ll get another chance Dec 1 at home vs Okla St). Texas Tech was 6-1 after a thrilling 56-53 three-OT win at TCU and had risen to No. 15 in the AP poll. However, it was from that point on, that the Red Raiders defense which had played so well early on, began to collapse. However, entering this game, Texas Tech owns a HUGE defensive edge over Baylor, allowing 339.4 YPG, about 165 YPG less than Baylor. Going up against Nick Florence, it should give Tech backers (that’s me!), confidence knowing the Red Raiders rank 11th nationally against the pass. I just don’t understand how Baylor can be the small favorite here (on a neutral field) with its AWFUL defense, not to mention them coming off last Saturday's MONUMENTAL upset of Kansas St? Let’s NOT forget that Texas Tech was a top-25 team as recently as Nov 11 and that Tech had won had won all 15 previous games against the Bears as Big 12 members before RG3 led the Bears to a 66-49 win last Nov 26 in Waco. Tech REMEMBERS and catches a ‘flat’ Baylor team and runs away with it.

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Jimmy Boyd CBB
5* (CBB) Marshall -7
4* (CBB) SE Missouri St +5

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Northcoast
4* Clemson
4* Wics
3*Oreg St
3*USC
3*Ohio St
3* Fla St