11-26-12

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Pointwise

CAROLINA over Philadelphia RATING: 5

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Paramount Sports - Lee Sterling (radio shows)

Car 13 - Phila 12

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Coach Thompson's International Club, Inc

Pick Monday for NFL week 12

Philadelphia - +1 - 5% Of Bankroll

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NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 12

Carolina at Philadelphia (1, 41)

The Philadelphia Eagles will look to snap their six-game losing skid when they welcome the Carolina Panthers on Monday night. With the outcome of last Sunday's game against the Redskins no longer in doubt, LeSean McCoy carried the ball in the waning moments and suffered a concussion that could sideline him versus the Panthers. McCoy and QB Michael Vick have yet to practice this week and will likely watch rookies Bryce Brown and Nick Foles continue in their place. Carolina squandered an 11-point lead with five minutes remaining in regulation en route to a 27-21 overtime loss to NFC South rival Tampa Bay last Sunday. The Eagles have failed to cover in their last five games overall.

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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 12
by Jason Logan

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (+1, 41)

Panthers’ play for Rivera vs. Eagles’ tank for Reid

One look at the spread for this one tells you just how much faith oddsmakers have in the Eagles. It’s about as much faith as Philadelphia has in head coach Andy Reid right now. Reid’s seat is an inferno and a loss to Carolina on Monday Night Football would burn that mother to the ground. The local media is all over the Walrus for playing his starters last week when the game was long out of reach, leading to LeSean McCoy’s concussion in the fourth quarter. Don’t expect Andy’s guys to play for him in any quarter Monday.

Despite their 2-8 record, the Panthers have been a tough out for opponents this season. Carolina has come close to some big upsets, getting outscored by just under six points per game, and has suffered six losses by six or fewer points this season. Rivera is expected to stick out the rest of the season and will rally his troops for a big national TV stage.

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NFL
Write-Up

Week 12

Panthers (2-8) @ Eagles (3-7)—Not much to choose from here, with both head coaches possible lame ducks, but you have underdog with big edge under center (Newton over Foles). Carolina lost seven of last eight games, blowing 10-point lead with 5:00 left at home last week; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 6-1-2 points, with only win in last road game, 21-13 at Washington. Visitor covered Carolina’s last eight games. Eagles lost last six games, giving up 31.8 ppg in losing all four games since bye, when they fired their DC. Shanahan had been 3-21-1 as home favorite before his Skins walloped Philly 31-6 last week, that’s how far Eagles have fallen, in what are obviously Reid’s last weeks running club. NFC South underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 9-1 on road; NFC East favorites are 3-13 vs spread, 2-8 at home. Four of five Eagle home games went over the total. National TV audience should extract better effort than these teams have been producing lately.

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Mighty Quinn

Panthers

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Monday Night Football: Panthers at Eagles

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (2.5, 40.5)

Two teams with lofty aspirations at the onset of the season will meet on Monday night with little on the line - aside from the potential employment of their respective head coaches. The Philadelphia Eagles will look to snap their six-game losing skid when they welcome the Carolina Panthers to the City of Brotherly Love. Long-time coach Andy Reid has been taken to task in the local newspapers and sports talk shows after the Eagles went through the motions in a 31-6 loss to NFC East-rival Washington on Sunday.

Carolina squandered an 11-point lead with five minutes remaining in regulation en route to a 27-21 overtime loss to NFC South rival Tampa Bay. The loss prompted many in the local media to pepper coach Ron Rivera with questions about his job security. With former general manager Marty Hurney getting the boot earlier in the season, Rivera will likely need a strong finish to improve his standing.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Panthers -2.5 O/U: 40.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2-8): Cam Newton has come under fire during his sophomore season - both for his performance and his perceived indifference to it all. The former Heisman Trophy winner is struggling, but could find the waters smooth against a battered Eagles pass defense. Newton has formed a nice bond with tight end Greg Olsen, who has scored in two of his last three games versus Philadelphia.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-7): With the outcome of last Sunday's game no longer in doubt, LeSean McCoy carried the ball in the waning moments and suffered a concussion that could sideline him versus the Panthers. McCoy and quarterback Michael Vick have yet to practice this week and will likely watch rookies Bryce Brown and Nick Foles continue in their place. Foles tossed interceptions on his first two possessions versus Washington and the game quickly unraveled.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1-1 in Eagles’ last eight home games.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Eagles' last six Monday games.
* Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rivera was a linebackers coach under Reid in Philadelphia from 1999-2003. In addition, Carolina defensive coordinator Sean McDermott held the same post with the Eagles after Jim Johnson passed away in 2009.

2. Philadelphia has defeated Carolina in three straight since falling to the Panthers in the 2004 NFC Championship game.

3. Should McCoy sit out, Brown would make his first start since his senior year in high school.

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Tale of the tape: Panthers at Eagles

Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles.

Offense

Cam Newton has come under fire during his sophomore season - both for his performance and his perceived indifference to it all. The former Heisman Trophy winner is struggling, but could find the waters smooth against a battered Eagles pass defense. Newton has formed a nice bond with tight end Greg Olsen, who has scored in two of his last three games versus Philadelphia. The Panthers are an uncharacteristic 16th in rushing yardage after racking up more yards on the ground than any team in the NFL since 2008.

With the outcome of last Sunday's game no longer in doubt, LeSean McCoy carried the ball in the waning moments and suffered a concussion that will sideline him versus the Panthers. McCoy and quarterback Michael Vick (concussion) will watch rookies Bryce Brown and Nick Foles continue in their place. Foles tossed interceptions on his first two possessions versus Washington and the game quickly unraveled after that. In addition, wide receiver Jason Avant (strained hamstring) and running back Chris Polk (sprained toe) also will not play against the Panthers.

Edge: Panthers

Defense

Panthers DE Greg Hardy, who has seven sacks this season, is dealing with an undisclosed illness and is considered questionable. Linebacker Jordan Senn is doubtful with an ankle injury for a stop unit that ranks in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories.

The Eagles' pass defense has surrendered 11 touchdown passes and hasn’t recorded an interception over the past four weeks. Opposing QBs have rung up a gaudy 143.6 passer rating against Philadelphia over that span.

Edge: Panthers

Special teams

After firing special teams coach Brian Murphy and replacing him with Richard Rodgers, the Panthers’ special teams struggled again Sunday in the loss to Tampa Bay. The unit failed on a fake punt attempt, and Captain Munnerlyn lost a fumble on a punt return in the contest. After making his first seven attempts this season, including a 5-for-5 performance at Chicago, kicker Justin Medlock has missed his last three field-goal attempts.

The Eagles don't have a kickoff return longer than 31 yards or a punt return longer than 20 yards this season. Punter Mat McBriar is tied for fifth in the league in with a 48.5-yard gross average, but the special teams unit as a whole has been downright awful in Philadelphia and it doesn’t look like things will improve this season.

Edge: Tie. Both teams are equally as bad.

Word on the street

“A lot of the players on defense have been turned over since I left, so I won’t have as great a feel for their defensive personnel as I would have. But as far as a general feel for what the atmosphere is going to be like and what they like to do, yes.” – Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott after being asked if his previous experience serving on the Philadelphia coaching staff will give his defense an advantage Monday night.

“These guys are all competitors and that’s one of the inherent problems with concussion management — they want to play. They know the consequences and everything, but they want to play. We know he’s anxious to go out there and play but we have to be careful with these guys.” – Eagles trainer Rick Burkholder on Michael Vick’s concussion.

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Mighty Quinn (from his daily newspaper article)

Mighty had no play Sunday and likes the Knicks Monday.

The deficit is 1378 sirignanos.

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CBB

-- East Carolina started season 4-0 vs stiffs; #224 NC-Greensboro is top team they've beaten- they move up in class for first road game, visiting Georgia State team that opened with losses at Duke/BYU, but then won next three games, last two by a hoop each. CAA single digit favorites are 3-7 vs spread. C-USA single digit underdogs are 5-7.
-- San Jose State is 2-2 vs four stiffs, with only D-I win over Weber St in OT; Spartans lost by 45 at Cal LY in biggest non-WAC game. WAC road underdogs are 6-8 vs spread, 3-1 if getting double digits. Kansas is 4-1, with best win over Saint Louis by 14- their upcoming schedule ain't too tough. Big X home favorites are 6-6 against the spread.
-- Towson started season 3-2 after going 1-31 LY; Tigers lost by 17 at Charleston, in only game vs team ranked above #260. Towson lost by 17 to Loyola in Bracket Buster game two years ago; CAA road underdogs are 12-14 vs spread, 3-6 if getting 12+ points. MAAC non-conference favorites are 6-2-1 against spread.
-- Oakland beat Tennessee last two years, by 7-8 points, but they're 1-4 vs D-I teams this year, playing #12 schedule in whole country, losing in OT at Pitt, by 18 at Michigan State. Summit road underdogs are 11-9 vs spread, 3-8 if getting double digits. SEC home favorites are 10-7 against spread, 4-3 if laying double digits.
-- Colorado State beat Washington by 18 in Seattle after winning by 7 at Denver; Rams are rebounding 48% of their own misses. State won last two games vs Northern Colorado, by 14 points each. Bears lost by 11 at Cal Poly, 9 vs Wyoming in only D-I games this month. Mountain West home favorites are 4-11 vs spread, 4-5 if laying double digits. Big Sky road underdogs are 14-15 vs spread, 7-7 if getting double digits

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Spurs won seven of last nine games (5-3 as AF).
-- Trailblazers won four of last six games (2-4 SU on road).
-- Memphis won/covered nine of last ten games.
-- Bobcats won six of last eight games (2-2 as AU). Oklahoma City won nine of last 11 games, with last two wins in OT (4-3-1 as HF).
-- Nuggets won/covered their last four games (won four of last six away games). Utah won three of last four games (4-1 as HF).
-- Knicks are 9-3, but lost three of last four road games. Nets are 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games (4-1-2 vs spread at home).

Cold Teams
-- Wizards are 0-11, losing last two games in OT (1-3 as HU).
-- Pistons lost 11 of first 14 games (5-3 in last eight as AU).
-- Bucks lost last three games, by 4-7-7 points (3-0 as AU). Bulls lost three of last four games, covered twice in last ten.
-- Cavaliers lost eight of last nine games, but covered last three (5-4 as a AU).
-- Clippers lost last three games (3-2 as HF). New Orleans lost its last seven games (4-2 as AU).

Totals
-- Five of last six San Antonio games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Portland's road games.
-- Three of Bulls' last four games stayed under; three of Milwaukee's last four games went over.
-- Seven of nine Cleveland road games went over total.
-- Last four Charlotte games, last four Thunder games went over.
-- Four of last five Denver road games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight New Orleans games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven New York games went over the total.

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NCAA Basketball Picks

San Jose State at Kansas

The Spartans are coming off a 94-54 win over UC-Santa Cruz and look to build on their 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games following a SU victory. San Jose State is the pick (+28) according to Dunkel, which has the Jayhawks favored by only 22 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+28). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 715-716: East Carolina at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 55.584; Georgia State 61.227 Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Georgia State by 3 Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (-3)

Game 717-718: San Jose State at Kansas (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 46.647; Kansas 78.950 Dunkel Line: Kansas by 22 1/2; 142 Vegas Line: Kansas by 28; 136 Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+28); Over

Game 719-720: Towson at Loyola-MD (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Towson 42.698; Loyola-MD 60.315 Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 17 1/2 Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 13 Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-13)

Game 721-722: Oakland at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 52.905; Tennessee 61.833 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 9 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 12 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+12 1/2)

Game 723-724: Northern Colorado at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 46.999; Colorado State 70.577 Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 23 1/2 Vegas Line: Colorado State by 15 Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-15)

Game 731-732: Chicago State at Notre Dame (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago State 36.824; Notre Dame 66.759 Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 30; 139 Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 32 1/2; 135 Dunkel Pick: Chicago State (+32 1/2); Over

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Today's NFL Picks

Carolina at Philadelphia

The Panthers look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games against teams with a losing SU record. Carolina is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26 Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (11/21)

Game 245-246: Carolina at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 131.535; Philadelphia 125.043 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-2 1/2); Over