11-30-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line for 11/30/2012
(Lost last 3 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Los Angeles Lakers : u205.5
Cost: -110

Run Line for 11/30/2012
(Lost last 3 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Los Angeles Lakers : -4.5
Cost: -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
Kent State +7.5 over Northern Illinois
(System Record: 35-3, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 35-39-4

Basketball Crusher
Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 over Milwaukee Bucks
(System Record: 19-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 19-11-0



Soccer Crusher
Catania + AC Milan UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Italy
(System Record: 323-12, lost last 3 games and a push)
Overall Record: 323-283-36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd
3* Northern Illinois -6½...
3* UCLA +9...

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams


Highest-Rated
2000♦
Winner #6 of 8


UCLA Bruins +8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bankroll sports full card 2-3 yesterday

10* kent st +7 cfb
5* ucla/stanford over 44.5 cfb
5* gt hoyas -6 cbb
3* la tech +2 cbb
2* drake +5 cbb

[Can'tPickAWinner]

David Chan
Kent St. +5
UCLA +9.5
UCLA Over 52

Oregon St. +11

Lakers -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

6-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 148.5 Syracuse at Arkansas (8:30 p.m.)
5-Unit Play. Take #733 Syracuse (-6.5) over Arkansas (8:30 p.m.)

Note: This is my College Basketball Game of the Month.

I have been going back and forth on this for the last two days. My first instinct - my first thought about this game and what I've been talking about with friends and colleagues over the last two months - is that this game is going to be about 96-88. It is going to be a fast-moving, up-tempo circus of guys just running and dunking all over the place tonight. Arkansas is going to press and trap and force the game up-tempo. Syracuse is totally cool with that. In fact, that is how the Orange want to play. Syracuse struggles when teams slow them down and make them execute in the half-court. There will be none of that tonight. Arkansas is going to press and try to force turnovers with their 40 Minutes of Hell style. But Syracuse has two exceptional guards and this should lead to a lot of wide-open shots and easy get-to-the basket opportunities for the Orange. All of this should lead to a high-scoring game.

I don't play a lot of college basketball totals. I have maybe released 15-20 of them over the last seven years. But this is a situation where I am just sticking with my first instinct and my first read on this game.

And the numbers actually work in our favor here against a really high total. Syracuse was just 3-5 against totals in the 140's last year. But they were 3-0 against those totals on the road. When the Orange go on the road they are welcome to adopt the style of play of their opponent. And if Arkansas wants to run then the Orange will run with them.

Last year the Razorbacks were 6-0 against totals in the 140's at home and they were 7-3 against totals that high in general. These offenses combine to average 159.9 points per game this year and Syracuse has done very well against freewheeling, fast-paced teams the past two years. Last year they scored 160 points in their road win at N.C. State, they scored 155 at DePaul (that presses similar to what Arkansas does), they scored 160 at Providence, and they scored 165 at St. John's.

Arkansas gave up 83 points to Arizona State and 77 points to Wisconsin already this year. Neither one of those teams are exactly offensive juggernauts. And there is just no way that I see the Razorbacks holding Syracuse under 80-85 points. There's just no way. Syracuse scored 73 points against a Princeton team that plays at one of the slowest tempos in the sport. They also scored 87 against Colgate and 88 against Wagner in games where they were barely trying. And they scored 62 points in 20 mph wins against a tough San Diego State team. Again, they are getting to 80 tonight.

The only question is whether or not Arkansas can get to/near 70.

Arkansas is going to shoot the ball better than they have on their own court. They scored 73 in their opener, 113 against Longwood and 89 against Florida A&M. They are not a good 3-point shooting team but I think that they will be much better and much more comfortable in their own gym. They will also have to score in transition because they are really going to struggle against SU's 2-3 zone.

The other thing is this: neither team is very good at shooting 3-pointers. But I do think that both will be better tonight than their numbers suggest. A) because Syracuse's 3's will be wide open in transition and B) because Arkansas will shoot better at home, because everyone shoots better and with more confidence at home. But even if both teams miss a bunch of 3's, that is just going to lead to run-outs and more fast breaking, all of which will keep pumping that tempo.

I see this one being around 85-68. And even if it is closer than I think, a game in the 70's could get us home (think 79-72). Last year Syracuse won 88-72 at N.C. State in its first true road test. Arkansas played games of 86-83 against Kentucky, 82-74 against Vanderbilt, 98-68 against Florida, and 79-68 against Alabama. The theme: when they played against NCAA-Tournament caliber teams, home or away, they were usually blown out but they were definitely playing high-scoring games.

I really see Syracuse dominating. Arkansas only has three players - Marshawn Powell, Coty Clarke and Hunter Mickelson - that are taller than 6-5. Syracuse's top seven guys are all between 6-5 and 6-10. They are going to physically dominate the interior and they are going to be running and dunking all over the place. I do think Arkansas will be somewhat competitive in this game. And I think that they will find some points with their pressure. But in the end I think that Syracuse is a top-flight basketball team that will show its pedigree here. They lost a lot of talent from last year's team. But their guys are still mostly seniors and juniors that have seen a ton of action and have a lot of experience in big games.

Syracuse will get the job done. Arkansas will do its part. I plan to hit both of these bets and I like Syracuse between 86/82 points and I like Arkansas between 68/72 points.

That's it for today.

I can already tell you I'm going to have a very large card for Saturday and a good-sized one for Sunday. I see between 10-15 plays for Saturday, potentially. It is going to be a big weekend and one of my plays will be in the Providence-Mississippi State game at noon.

Also, I have two 7-Unit Game of the Years going this week in football. I have a 7-Unit College GOTY tomorrow evening in one of the conference championships. Then on Sunday I have a 7-Unit NFL Game of the Year and a 6-Unit NFL Game of the Week. This will be one of my biggest weeks of the entire calendar year and I'm looking to get very hot.

Carpe diem. And good luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers
Passing on CBB
Brooklyn Nets -4

[DaKid]

Jimmy Boyd 11/30
5* (NBA) Orlando Magic +4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Jason Sharpe NBA Minnesota T~Wolves

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast Friday Night Marquee game of the month: Northern Illinois/Kent State Over57.5

[Mr. IWS]

CHRIS JORDAN

200* trifecta

Northern Ill (football) buy half pt to -6.5
Cal St Fullerton -4.5
Sacramento Kings -1

[Mr. IWS]

Handicappster

UCLA +9.5 (5 UNITS)

Kent State +8 (5 UNITS)

Knicks -12.5 (3 UNITS)

Timberwolves -2.5 (3 UNITS)

Auburn pk (3 UNITS)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler 7pt CFB Teaser
Dime
Stanford -1.5 & Kent St. +14.5