12-1-12

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Teddy Covers

20* big ticket kansas st
10* alabama
10* nevada

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Joe Gavazzi / Winning Sports Advice

College FB (Saturday)
Boise State (-9) at Nevada 3:30 ET ABC
4* Boise State
In recent seasons, Nevada has been a thorn in the side of Boise State. They have covered the last 3 meetings and won outright against a Top 5 Boise team at this site 2 years ago, 34-31 as 14 point home dog. I don’t see that happening this year. As opposed to the earlier part of the millennium where the thought of “Boise on the Blue” made it rain money, the fortunes of Boise have shifted dramatically to the road under the tenure of 8th year HC Petersen. In fact, Boise is 20-7 ATS away including 4-1 ATS away this year since 2008 on the road. Conversely, Nevada’s pointspread fortunes have taken a downward dip. Nevada enters today on an 0-7 ATS slide and has covered just twice all season though their offense, behind QB Fajardo, is still producing with 37 points on 510 yards. It is the defense that has let them down. The Wolfpack now allows 33 PPG and 213 or more yards both running or passing. Replacing QB Moore with QB Southwick has dipped the Boise offensive fortunes a bit. But the defense and special teams are what has allowed Boise to create their 9-2 SU, 7-3 ATS mark. They allow just 14 PPG on 293 yards and have a +17 TO margin. Defense and special teams get this cover against a fading Nevada team.

Oklahoma (-6) at TCU Noon ET ESPN
4* TCU
Despite a loss to Kansas State, Oklahoma can still win the Big 12 Championship with a win in this Noon EST game and a loss by Kansas State in tonight’s contest vs. Texas. One look at their high-powered offense averaging 42 points and 513 yards and playing at a video game clip would appear to leave little doubt about this outcome. Yet, the Horned Frogs may have something to say about that. Last week, TCU stepped up to upset Texas 20-13 on Thanksgiving evening. Though their once vaunted defense has been torched by the up-tempo attacks of TTRR, Oklahoma and West Virginia (they allowed 140 points to those 3 in 3 consecutive weeks), they still have one of the best defensive fronts in the Conference. They allow just 97/3.1 overland and only 324 YPG. Their biggest hope in this game, however, is to control the flow of the game with their own ground game against an Oklahoma defensive front who, in the last 3 games, has allowed a Nation-worst 304 RYPG on 6.6 YPR. In fact, it was just 2 weeks ago that Oklahoma allowed West Virginia to rush for 458. Standing 5-10 ATS as road chalk, playing with the pressure of need and fielding a defensive front that has gotten steamrolled of late, it’s simply too tough to lay points on the road with these Sooners against a very capable home dog.

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Accuscore
College Football Week 14: Championship Week

Analyst is 15-8-1 since Week 6 of the 2012 NCAA football season

Nebraska -3 vs. Wisconsin – Big 10 Championship
The Cornhuskers have started playing much better defense of late particularly against the run. They allowed just 87 rushing yards to Minnesota and 108 to Iowa. Both Minnesota and Iowa are bad teams, but neither averaged even 3.2 yards per play. Both of Nebraska’s losses this year (UCLA, Ohio State) were on the road and outside on grass. This game will be played at a neutral site in Indianapolis indoors. That should help Nebraska’s offense much more than it will benefit Wisconsin. The Badgers have lost three of their last four games, and just do not seem to be trending in the right direction to the end the year, and are having trouble generating offense with Curt Phillips at quarterback.

Central Florida +2 at Tulsa – Conference USA Championship
These two teams played two weeks ago with Tulsa coming out on top by two points. Both that game and this one are at Tulsa. I think there were some explainable reasons for that game, and also reasons to believe the Knights will play much better this week. The last match-up was the fourth road game in five weeks for UCF. Quarterback Blake Bortles is normally very accurate with a 67 percent completion rate outside of an aberrant 13 for 31 performance against Tulsa. Bortles has thrown just two interceptions since 9/15, and both came in the same game in an otherwise dominant game against Marshall. Tulsa lost last week to Southern Methodist (admittedly after locking up their division), a team UCF beat by 25 points. I like the Knights a bit more for having to stay focused last week, and win rather than Tulsa essentially taking a vacation last week. I like UCF outright in close game in this rematch.

Florida State -13.5 vs. Georgia Tech – ACC Championship
Georgia Tech has trouble playing defense which is not good when going up against an offense that averages over 40 points per game. Simulations have the Seminoles winning nearly 83 percent of the time by about 18 points on average. E.J. Manuel is a bit banged up, but they are clearly a cut above a team that might need a waiver to reach a bowl game. Florida State has allowed only four teams to rush for more than 100 yards this season. Georgia Tech obviously is clearly a one-dimensional team. I’m going with the talent and the Seminoles.

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POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Pitt, Tulsa

3* Hawaii, Ark St, Cincy, Wisky

2* Bama, Stanford

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Football Bets Direct

Saturday's bets...

ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP

Watford v Barnsley
Win Bet Watford

FRANCE DIVISION 1

Valenciennes v Reims *** B BET
Win Bet Valenciennes

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PREDICTION MACHINE

SIDES

Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opponent Line - Margin - Win%

326 3:00 PM @ ARK ST. MIDDTN - -10 - 18.2 - 59.7% - PP

337 8:17 PM NEB WISC - -3 - 8.9 - 59.4% - PP

333 4:00 PM ALA UGA - -7 - 12.9 - 59.2% - PP

311 7:00 PM PITT @ SOFLA - -6.5 - 13.7 - 58.4% - PP

TOTALS

Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line - Total Points - Pick%

334 4:00 PM ALA vs. UGA - 50 - 57.0 - Over 59.5%

330 11:00 PM USA @ HAWAII - 52.5 - 43.4 - Under 58.5%

336 8:00 PM FLA ST. vs. GA TECH - 63.5 - 56.7 - Under 58.4%

324 4:00 PM NM ST. @ TX ST. - 57 - 65.3 - Over 58.3%

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Doc Sports

4 Unit Play Baylor Bears +4.5 over Oklahoma State Cowboys
(Saturday, 12/1, noon FX)

4 Unit Play Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5 over Georgia Bulldogs
(SEC Championship, Saturday, 12/1, 4 pm CBS)

7 Unit Play Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 over Wisconsin Badgers
(Big Ten Championship Game, Saturday, 12/1, 8 pm FOX)
Top College Football Play of the Weekend

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Steve Merril

Central Florida vs. Tulsa (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST
Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/100 Central Florida

9* Play UCF (+pts)

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Jimmy Boyd

5* Oklahoma -6

4* Georgia +7½

4* Wisconsin +3

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Hoopsgooroo

314 TCU +6 @ 12p
318 Baylor +5 @ 12p

322 West Virginia -20 @ 2:30p

310 UConn +5 @ 3:30p

333 Alabama -7.5 @ 4p

311 Pitt -7 @ 7p

315 Texas +11 @ 8p
335 Florida St. -14 @ 8p
337 Nebraska -3 @ 8:15p

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XpertPicks

• Play Alabama -7 over Georgia (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---40% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 4:00 PM EST
Georgia has lost 8 of the last 9 games against the spread when playing
as an underdog and they have also lost 5 of the last 7 games against
the spread when playing on a neutral field. Georgia has lost two
consecutive games against the spread when playing in the month of
December and they have also lost 5 of the last 7 games against the
spread coming off three or more wins by 17 points or more.

• Play Central Florida +2 over Tulsa (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---20% OF YOUR BANKROLL
12:00 PM EST
Central Florida has won 7 of the last 8 games and they have also won 6
of the last 7 games after scoring 42 points or more in their last
game. Central Florida has won 11 of the last 13 games coming off a
conference win by ten points or more and they are averaging over 35
points a game on offense this season.

• Play Georgia Tech +14 over Florida State (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---20% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:00 PM EST
Georgia Tech has covered the spread in 4 of the last 6 games and they
have also won 4 of the last 5 games coming off a loss by 17 points or
more in their last game. Georgia Tech has won 9 of the last 13 games
when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points and they are
averaging over 40 points a game on offense over the last three games.

• Play Wisconsin +3 over Nebraska (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---20% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:15 PM EST
Wisconsin has won 24 of the last 29 games when playing on artificial
turf and they have also won 11 of the last 13 games coming off a road
game. Wisconsin has won 18 of the last 25 games vs. conference
opponents and they have won 16 of the last 23 games coming off an OVER
the total in their last game.

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Marc Lawrence Perfect System Game of The Year

Georgia +7.5

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Totals Unlimited GOY- Over 62 Texas-Kansas State

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HSW Early phones
8 Tulsa

New York Steam games
3 Pitt
1 Conn
1 Ark St

L & M Las Vegas
5 Kansas St.
3 Tulsa
2 HI

GD West
2 HI