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Selvaggio says: "This is one of those lines that is based on names of jerseys and perception rather the actual quality of the teams. I think the marketplace has the wrong team favored. My season-long math model favors Washington by three points, and my other model, which weights recent games more heavily, also favors the Skins by three.
"I have a number of fundamental rushing situations that favor the Redskins. I also have a couple home 'dog situations that Washington falls in, including one that is 67 percent ATS since 1980. The Giants also qualify in a negative situation that is based on last week's blowout win over the Packers that is 70 percent since 1980.
"Yes, the Giants have been killers on the road the last few seasons. But when I have situations favoring one side, as well as line value, that warrants a max bet on my part. I fully expect the Redskins to be the right side and cover the spread on Monday night."
NY GIANTS (-3) over Washington
8:40 p.m. ETOur FREE PICK record is 55-38 (59%) since September 1st. The Skins have certainly given the Giants problems in recent history, covering four straight, including two outright wins last season and a 27-23 loss earlier his year as a 6-point dog. But with the Monday Night showcase tonight and RGIII getting all kinds of publicity, we expect a fully focused effort tonight from the G-Men and when that's the case, they are as dangerous as any team in the league. Under Tom Coughlin, the Giants have covered 60% of their road games, including 3-1 this year. Meanwhile, the Skins hardly have any kind of home field edge, considering they have lost 9 of their last 11 games on this field and are 6-15 straight-up at home under the overrated Mike Shanahan. The Washington defense ranks No. 28 in the NFL in sacks, which means Eli Manning will have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart a shaky Redskins secondary. And with a game already under their belt defending RGIII, look for the G-Men defense to keep the rookie sensation under wraps. Giants get the road win and cover, again.
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