12-6-12

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DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 14 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 111-70 (.613)
ATS: 79-107 (.425)
ATS Vary Units: 349-567 (.381)
Over/Under: 93-95 (.495)
Over/Under Vary Units: 363-310 (.539)

Thursday, December 6, 2012
Denver 36, OAKLAND 19

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Today's NFL Picks

Denver at Oakland

The Raiders look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 meetings with Denver. Oakland is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6 Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (12/5)

Game 101-102: Denver at Oakland (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 133.693; Oakland 126.244 Dunkel Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10 1/2); Under

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Coach Thompson's International Club, Inc

Week 14

( Hot Game To Bet: Oakland +10.5 )

Oakland +10.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

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Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
Point Spread - Pick

Denver Broncos (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)
NFL Week 14
Date/Time: Thursday, December 6th, 2012, 8:20 p.m. EST
Where: O.co Coliseum, Oakland, Calif.
TV: NFL Network/DirecTV 212
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: Den. -10.5/Oak. +10.5
Over/Under Total: 49.5

Even though the Oakland Raiders have only three wins and are nowhere near the same type of team they were during the "Just Win Baby" days of old, don't think for a second that when Peyton Manning and the hated Denver Broncos come calling to O.co Coliseum on Thursday Night Football that one of the best AFC West rivalries won't be renewed in primetime on the NFL Network.

The Raiders have lost five games in a row to fall completely off the map in the AFC West, and to make matters worse three of those five losses have come at home including last week's dud versus the Cleveland Browns, 20-17. Don't be fooled by the close score, the Raiders added a late touchdown with one second to play to put lipstick on that pig, and with nothing really left to play for don't be surprised if the Raiders take every opportunity to knock Manning around and spoil the Broncos chances at a deep AFC playoff run.

Denver will be attempting a strong playoff run because they clinched the AFC West title last week with their, 31-23, victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Broncos scored 24 points in the second half to pull away from the Bucs and notch their eighth win in a row, and with an outside chance at homefield throughout the AFC playoffs still lingering in the final four weeks, there's nothing that's stopping them from kicking dirt in the face of the Raiders while they're down in front of everyone on Thursday Night.

You know things are bad when you're a double-digit underdog in your own house, but that's exactly what the Raiders will be since oddsmakers opened the game with Denver as 10.5-point favorites in the "Black Hole." After 24 hours of being live the number hasn't moved at most sportsbooks, but it's gone up to minus -11 or even -12 (Sportbet) at a few offshore sportsbooks, which is like salt on the wound as far as Raiders fans are concerned.

The over/under total opened at 51 and within hours dropped quickly to 50 and then 49.5, where it currently sits at most books.

Offensively these two teams are fairly even, yardage-wise, when you look at the statistics. Both Manning and Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer have thrown for over 3,500 yards and average about the same in passing yards per game (Den. 284 ypg - 7th; Oak. 280 ypg - 8th). Denver over the course of the season has run the ball more effectively (103 ypg; Oak. 83 ypg), but since the Broncos lost running back Willis McGahee to injury they have struggled to replace him and those numbers are starting to drop.

But even though those yardage numbers are comparable, the Broncos average of 29.1 points per game is 3rd-best in the NFL and over 10 points a game better than the Raiders average of 19.6, which means the Broncos and Manning create more big plays and don't shoot themselves in the foot. That has led to the six-game difference in the win column and is why the Broncos have already been crowned AFC West champs, while the Raiders are talking about seeing what backup QB Terrelle Pryor can do in the these last four games of the season.

But more than veteran leadership at QB and big plays on offense, the other HUGE difference between these two teams is defense. Denver is top-10 across the board, has the league's top sack man in Von Miller (15), and can stop the run (96 ypg - 7th) as well as the pass (212 - 6th) and keep teams off the board. Oakland is the NFL worst in scoring defense, allowing 31.3 points per game, and when you allow over 30 points per game in the NFL you're doomed for failure.

The 31 points the Raiders allow on defense is the exact margin of victory the Broncos had over the Raiders earlier this season in their first meeting in Denver, as Denver won 37-6 in a game that the Broncos ran up over 500 yards of offense and scored 27 points in the second half to turn it into a rout.

Even though the Broncos have won two in a row against the Raiders, it wasn't that long ago when the sides were flipped and the Raiders owned this rivalry. Oakland won four straight (from 2009 to 2011) and six of the last 10, so they certainly can beat the Broncos.

Oakland is also 9-4 ATS going back through the last 13 head-to-head meetings (11-5 ATS in L16 vs. AFC West), so even though they look hopeless on the field they have been a solid wager at the window over the years.

The over might be the best wager on the board this Thursday, not only because the Raiders defense is a sieve, but also because the over is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings and is also 4-1 in the last five meetings played in Oakland. Those numbers run opposite of both teams history in the division, and on Thursday games, since both tend to play under in the AFC West (under is 5-2 in Denver's L7 vs. AFC West; 5-1 in Oakland's L6 vs. AFC West) and under when they play on short rest (under 4-1 in Denver's L5 on Thurs.; 3-1-1 in Oakland's L5 on Thurs.).

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I can't believe I'm saying this, but I like the Raiders as huge home dogs in this situation. It's a rivalry game, plus the Broncos have already clinched so even though they'll claim their still trying to win them all, it's only natural for them to let off the pedal a little. I'm not sure how they'll do it, but Oakland should keep it close, especially is the number keeps climbing to -11.5 or -12.
Take Oakland plus the points.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Pittsburgh (-15 1/2) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s Xavier. The deficit is 1348 sirignanos.

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Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Raiders

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+10.5, 48)

With a division title already in their pocket, the Denver Broncos still have a first-round bye in their sights as they prepare for Thursday night's road game against the AFC West-rival Oakland Raiders in the Week 14 opener. Denver secured its 12th division crown with a 31-23 home triumph over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. It was the seventh consecutive victory for the Broncos, who have repeated as AFC West champions for the first time since 1986-87.

With four contests remaining, Denver is tied for the second seed in the conference with the AFC East champion New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, who all are two games behind the top-seeded Houston Texans. The Broncos manhandled the Raiders in Week 4 as Peyton Manning threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns while Willis McGahee rushed for 112 yards and a score. Oakland enters the rematch hoping to end its losing streak, which reached five games with a 20-17 setback against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. The Raiders have allowed an average of 37.8 points during their slide.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Denver opened as high as a 12-point favorite and has been bet down to as low as -10. The total has moved from 49.5 to 48.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow west at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (9-3, 6-6 ATS): Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway was elated to acquire Manning last offseason. The former Broncos superstar quarterback has watched Manning pass him on two lists in the last two weeks. After moving past Elway for second place on the NFL's all-time list for victories by a starting QB, Manning set the franchise record for most touchdown passes in a single season on Sunday with three scoring tosses that raised his total to 29. He eclipsed the previous mark shared by Elway and Jake Plummer. The Broncos are not satisfied with winning the division title, a sentiment echoed throughout the locker room following Sunday's win. "That's not our biggest goal," cornerback Champ Bailey said. "It's just one thing out of the way." Coach John Fox added, "It's just a starting point, really."

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (3-9, 3-9 ATS): Oakland's losing streak is its longest since the club dropped six in a row in 2007 under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. Tight end Brandon Myers had 14 receptions Sunday against Cleveland, matching the franchise record set versus Jacksonville on Dec. 21, 1997, by Tim Brown. Myers now has 69 catches on the season, the most by a Raiders tight end since Todd Christensen hauled in 95 passes in 1986. Quarterback Carson Palmer has thrown for 300 yards in seven games this season. It's the most 300-yard performances by an Oakland signal-caller since Rich Gannon had 10 in 2002. Coach Dennis Allen believes RBs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson will be in the lineup Thursday. Allen left the Raiders following Sunday's game to be with his father, who is dealing with a serious medical issue, but is expected to rejoin the team Wednesday.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Oakland.
* Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Fox is the second coach in NFL history to inherit a last-place club and guide it to division titles in his first two years.

2. Oakland K Sebastian Janikowski's 51-yard field goal on Sunday was the 40th of his career of at least 50 yards, tying him with Morten Andersen for third place on the all-time list in that category.

3. Janikowski has converted 124 consecutive extra points and is 24-for-26 on field-goal attempts this season. His only two misses were from 64 and 61 yards.

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Tale of the Tape: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
by Sean Murphy

The Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders renew acquaintances in an old-fashioned AFC West grudge match on Thursday night. Find out which side has the edge with our tale of the tape.

Offense

Denver was held to only 17 points in Kansas City two weeks ago, but responded this past Sunday by scoring 31 points in a win over the Bucs. The Broncos have now scored at least 30 points in six of their last seven games, with QB Peyton Manning having thrown exactly three touchdowns in seven of the last nine contests. Running back Willis McGahee is sidelined, but Knowshon Moreno has shouldered the load the last two weeks, running the ball 40 times for 154 yards. Denver has scored 38 and 37 points in its last two matchups against Oakland.

The Raiders can't get out of their own way right now, with QB Carson Palmer having tossed at least one interception in eight consecutive games. He did throw for 351 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland last Sunday, but Oakland still managed only 17 points in another losing effort. Since scoring 32 points against Tampa Bay back on November 4, the Raiders have produced a grand total of 64 points over their last four games. Running back Darren McFadden is expected to play for the first time since Week 9 Thursday night.

Edge: Denver

Defense

While the Broncos offense has gotten most of the press, it's been their defense that has been truly dominant lately, allowing 23 points or less in six straight games. They've been particularly tough away from home where they've held the opposition to 3.8 yards per rush and 9.1 yards per pass play this season. They limited the Raiders to six points on 237 total yards of offense in their first meeting this season and the case can be made that they're playing even better as a unit now.

Oakland has had to get by with an injury-depleted defense all season, but that's no excuse for giving up over 30 points on seven different occasions. The Raiders did hold the Browns to only 20 points last Sunday, only masking the fact that they gave up close to 500 total yards of offense and allowed a pedestrian Cleveland passing attack to rack up 364 yards through the air. They're hoping to have their defensive anchor, Richard Seymour, back on the field. But after missing the last four games along with practice time this week, that's a long shot at best.

Edge: Denver

Special teams

If there's one area where the Broncos haven't dominated, it's on special teams. Their return game has been average, gaining just shy of 11 yards per punt return and 23.5 yards on kickoffs. Matt Prater has been less than reliable kicking field goals, making good on only 17 of 22 attempts. Of course, he hasn't been called into duty all that often, with Peyton Manning leading the offense into the end zone more often than not.

The Raiders have been putrid on punt returns, gaining an average of just 5.6 yards per return. They've only been slightly better returning kicks, still falling well below the league average at 21.5 ypr. The good news, Oakland does have one of the best kickers in football in Sebastian Janikowski. He's 18 for 20 on field-goal attempts this season with both misses coming from beyond 60 yards.

Edge: Denver

Word on the street

"We always say people remember what you do in December. So that's what we have ahead of us. We've got a division game coming up. Hopefully, we get to 5-0 in the division. There's a lot to play for. We'll see where that leads us." -- Broncos head coach John Fox on what his team has left to accomplish after wrapping up the AFC West title last Sunday.

"Week in and week out, it's like it's the same: can't stop the run, can't stop the pass. Things just aren't going well on defense. Right now, I guess we're just a bad defense. We can't really hide it." -- Raiders cornerback Michael Huff on the current state of their defense.

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Thursday... In College Hoops take Eastern Washington +3 over Idaho

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Today's NBA Picks

New York at Miami

The Heat look to take advantage of a New York team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games in Miami. Miami is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: New York at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 120.521; Miami 129.248 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 8 1/2; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 202 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7); Under

Game 703-704: Dallas at Phoenix (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 111.830; Phoenix 117.705 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 204 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 199 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3); Over

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Creighton at Nebraska

The Blue Jays look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games against Nebraska. Creighton is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-8). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 705-706: Rhode Island at Providence (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 55.291; Providence 63.852 Dunkel Line: Providence by 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Providence by 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Providence (-6 1/2)

Game 707-708: AR-Little Rock at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 53.802; Cincinnati 76.864 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 23 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 20 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-20)

Game 709-710: Vanderbilt at Xavier (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 60.163; Xavier 66.632 Dunkel Line: Xavier by 6 1/2; 133 Vegas Line: Xavier by 12; 129 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+12); Over

Game 711-712: Creighton at Nebraska (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 70.783; Nebraska 56.717 Dunkel Line: Creighton by 14 Vegas Line: Creighton by 8 Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-8)

Game 713-714: Long Beach State at Syracuse (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 56.496; Syracuse 78.444 Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 22; 136 Vegas Line: Syracuse by 20; 141 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-20); Under

Game 715-716: UC-Santa Barbara at San Diego State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 52.169; San Diego State 69.759 Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 17 1/2 Vegas Line: San Diego State by 15 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-15 1/2)

Game 717-718: WI-Green Bay at Tennessee Tech (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 53.909; Tennessee Tech 52.846 Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 1 Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+3 1/2)

Game 719-720: Idaho at Eastern Washington (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 53.698; Eastern Washington 48.878 Dunkel Line: Idaho by 5 Vegas Line: Idaho by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Idaho (-2 1/2)

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/06/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 901-284 (.760)
ATS: 361-378 (.488)
ATS Vary Units: 1391-1559 (.472)
Over/Under: 109-94 (.537)
Over/Under Vary Units: 158-158 (.500)

Non-Conference
American 67, UMBC 60
CAL STATE FULLERTON 85, CSU Bakersfield 72
CINCINNATI 76, Ualr 52
COASTAL CAROLINA 67, Boston U. 65
Creighton 74, NEBRASKA 64
Green Bay 69, TENNESSEE TECH 68
Idaho 76, EASTERN WASHINGTON 75
PROVIDENCE 71, Rhode Island 62
SAN DIEGO STATE 75, UC Santa Barbara 59
STETSON 75, Florida Atlantic 73
SYRACUSE 78, Long Beach State 59
WILLIAM & MARY 66, Howard 52
XAVIER 68, Vanderbilt 63

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/06/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 174-83 (.677)
ATS: 122-139 (.467)
ATS Vary Units: 429-432 (.498)
Over/Under: 140-121 (.536)
Over/Under Vary Units: 269-208 (.564)

MIAMI 101, New York 94
PHOENIX 104, Dallas 100

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 949-701 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free play Thurs: Xavier -11

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

E. Washington +2.5