If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Goirish, do you follow any of these guys, make your own plays, or a combo of both?
Thanks for all you do!
I used to follow all these guys and was always in the poor house, I've stopped betting for years now. I miss the rush but I like money and keeping it is better. Some of these guys are good you just have to find the one's that are and stick with them. Don't believe the hype, if you find any hitting between 51% to 55% stick with those. There are no 70% & 80 % winners. GL!
Dr. Ed Meyer | NFL Total Sun, 12/09/12 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 115 CHI / 116 MIN OVER 39.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
The Bears are off an overtime loss to the Seahawks in a game they certainly could have won. Favorites off late season overtime losses are a very good OVER play. From week 12 on, NFL favorites are 12-0 OU when they are off an overtime loss, going over by an average of 11.4 ppg. We cashed with this one last week as the Lions and Colts finished 35-33 with the OU line at 51. Detroit was the team off the overtime loss.
We have another system indicating the OVER that involves third down conversion rate. NFL teams are a combined 34-5 OU as a road favorite the week after a game in which the had at least 30 minutes of possession time, converted at least 50% of their third downs and had at least 20 first downs. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
p:3DP>=50 and AF and p:F and NB and p:FD>=20 and p:TOP>30*60 and season>=2010
As a team, Chicago is 9-0 OU after an overtime game in which they committed fewer than three turnovers and 7-0 OU (+8.8 ppg) after a game in which they got at least three first downs via an opponent’s penalty.
The Viking’s defense was on the field for 38-plus minutes last week against the Packers so Chicago should find the Vikings' D more yielding than usual – especially later in the contest.
Minnesota is 16-0 OU at home off a loss as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and committed fewer than four turnovers.
team=Vikings and H and p:LD and tA(p:TOP)-p:TOP>180 and p:TO<4 and season>=1995
Each of their last three in this situation have gone over by double-digits including their 34-24 win over the Lions in week 10.
In addition, Minnesota is 12-0 OU at home when they are off an ATS loss as a FG-plus underdog, as can be seen with this SDQL text:
p:ats margin<0 and 3<=p:line and H and team=Vikings and 20051101<=date
Finally, the Vikings are 10-0 OU off a road loss as a dog in which they were up by at least a field goal at the half. The SDQL text is:
team=Vikings and p:LAD and p:M2>=3 and season>=1991
This number is based on the quality of the Bears’ defense, but they will not be at their best after last week’s overtime game vs the Seahawks, forcing the offense to take responsibility for the win. This line is very playable below 40.
MTi’s FORECAST: MINNESOTA 24. Chic 23
Comment