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Colin Cowherd Blazin Five NFL Sunday Week 14
1. DALLAS COWBOYS +3
2. TENN. TITANS +5.5
3. CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
4. CLEVELAND BROWNS -6.5
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS +2.5Comment
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Wet Weather Expected for NFL Week 14
Mother Nature sure has impeccable timing. In a week in which 14 of the 16 NFL games are being played at outdoor venues, most of those contests are expected to get hit by inclement weather.
Low pressures systems litter the country in Week 14 with rain in the extended forecast for games at:
Buffalo
Carolina
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Jacksonville
Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay
Washington
New York
Seattle
and the Monday Night Football game in Foxborough.
Week 14 may also bring the NFL’s first taste of snow this season. The forecast in Green Bay is calling for a 43 percent chance of the white stuff, just in time for the Packers to welcome dome-dwelling Detroit to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
Totals for some of those outdoor games expecting poor conditions are on the move.
The 47.5-point number for Atlanta-Carolina has fallen to 47
St. Louis-Buffalo has gone from 42 to 41.5
Kansas City-Cleveland has moved from 38 to 37.5
New York-Jacksonville is down from 39 to 38.5
Arizona-Seattle has gone from 35 to 34.5
Detroit-Green Bay has adjusted from 53 to 51
Houston-New England is sitting at 51.5 after opening as high as 52.5.
The two outdoor events not expected to get wet this week are in California. Cloudy skies are in the forecast for Thursday Night Football in Oakland and the sun will be shining in the Bay Area, where San Francisco hosts Miami Sunday. The only games being played inside in Week 14 are at Indianapolis and Minnesota.
Make sure to check out the updated forecasts as Sunday’s action draws near.Comment
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Prediction Machine Totals
120 1:00 PM PHI @ TB 47 Over
108 1:00 PM KC @ CLE 37.5 Over
124 1:00 PM DAL @ CIN 45.5 Over
112 1:00 PM TEN @ IND 48 Over
118 1:00 PM ATL @ CAR 47.5 Over
132 8:20 PM DET @ GB 51.5 Over
122 1:00 PM STL @ BUF 42 Under
106 1:00 PM BAL @ WAS 47.5 Over
116 1:00 PM CHI @ MIN 39.5 Under
130 4:25 PM ARI @ SEA 35.5 Under
114 1:00 PM NYJ @ JAC 38.5 Over
126 4:05 PM MIA @ SF 39 Under
Sides
ARI PP
STL PP
WAS PP
CIN
GB
MIN
SF
KC
TEN
JAC
CAR
NYGComment
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ny post wildcat ( 20-6 ) :
baltimore
cincinnati
DAVE BLEZOW Locks of the Week ( 4-9 ) :
Lock- CINCINNATIComment
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NFL
Write-Up
Week 14
Broncos (9-3) @ Raiders (3-9)—Oakland lost last five games (0-5 vs spread), allowing 37.8 ppg; they’re 1-3 as home underdog this year, 9-14-1 since ’08. Denver won last seven games (5-2 vs spread), scoring 30+ points six times, with road wins by 11-8-22-8 points; they’re 2-1 as road favorites this year, 6-4 since 2009. Fox’s defense is creating shorter fields for his offense; eight of last 11 Denver TD’s were on drives of less than 60 yards. Broncos (-6.5) crushed Raiders 37-6 in Week 4, outrushing Oakland 165-56 (TY 503-237)- they were 10-16 on 3rd down, Oakland 1-12. Manning was 30-39/338 passing. Denver won three of last four visits here, but haven’t swept Raiders since ’06. Eight of last 10 series games were decided by 14+ points. AFC West home teams are 3-5 vs spread in division games; home dogs are 1-2. Six of last eight Denver games, five of last seven Bronco games went over the total. Note: Raiders' coach Allen has been away from team this week, due to the death of his father.
Ravens (9-3) @ Redskins (6-6)—Washington is 3-0 since its bye, beating all three division rivals, running ball for 172.7 ypg; short week for them, coming off physical win over Giants in RGIII’s first MNF appearance. Redskins are 3-3 at home but won three of last four. Last three Baltimore games were decided by a FG, with Ravens scoring only three offensive TD’s on 35 drives; they split pair with Big Ben-less Steelers, beat sliding Chargers in OT, hardly impressive. Baltimore allowed 101.8 rushing yards per game in five post-bye games, after allowing 209.3 ypg in last three pre-bye games- they won three of four series games in once/every four years local rivalry, winning 20-17/17-10 in two visits here, last of which was in ’04; average total in four games was 27.8. NFC East home teams are 4-10 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North road teams are 8-8. Four of last five Redskin games stayed under total.
Chiefs (2-10) @ Browns (4-8)—Cleveland is 4-3 in last seven games after 0-5 start, winning three of last four at home (wins by 10-1-6 points). Since 2008, they’re 3-8-2 as home favorites (0-0 in ’12). In three post-bye games, Browns allowed 65.7 ypg on ground, so will be up to ex-Brown Quinn to move KC thru air. Going to be tough week for Chiefs (Jovan Belcher’s funeral), as reality sets in about what happened Saturday; they played best game of year the next day, but now go on road where they’re 2-3 as underdogs, losing by 18-28-18-3 points, with win in OT at Superdome in game they trailed 24-6. Like QB Quinn, KC coach Crennel was once canned by Browns; reality is, he’s probably about to be fired by Chiefs, too. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-14 vs spread, 3-8 on road; NFC North favorites are 10-13, 6-10 at home. Under is 5-0-1 in last six Cleveland games, 3-1 in last four Chief games.
Chargers (4-8) @ Steelers (7-5)—Last five Pitt games were all decided by 6 or less points, with last three vs divisional rivals; Steelers won emotional game over rival Ravens last week behind 37-year 3rd-string QB Batch. Hard to endorse laying big number with Steelers until Big Ben comes back, but San Diego has now lost four in row, seven of last eight games, as Turner regime plays out string. Bolts are lost last four road games, by 7-1-10-7 points; they’re 1-3 as underdogs this year, 2-6 in last eight games as road dog. Pitt won eight of last nine series games, winning last three by 1-11-10 points. Chargers lost last six visits here by average score of 28-17; last time they won here was in ’94 playoffs. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-14 vs spread, 3-8 on road; NFC North favorites are 10-13, 6-10 at home. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Steeler games, but 1-4 in last five Charger road games.
Titans (4-8) @ Colts (8-4)—Indy’s storybook season continued last week, Colts scoring two TD’s in last 2:39 to pull out wild 35-33 win in Detroit, its sixth win in last seven games; they’ve won seven of last eight games vs Titans, nipping them 19-13 in OT (+3.5) in Nashville six weeks ago, scoring first TD of day with 3:24 left to tie game. Colts ran ball for 171 yards, outgained Titans 457-339. Indy is 5-1 at home this year, 2-1 as favorite, with home wins by 3-3-4-3-7 points; this is first time this year they’ve been favored by more than a FG. Tennessee lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 10+ points; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs this year, with road losses by 28-24-23-5 points (won at Miami/Buffalo). Titans are 2-8 in games where their turnover ratio is worse than +2. AFC South home teams are 2-6 vs spread in divisional games, 1-3 when favored. Under is 4-1-1 in Indy games, 4-1 in titans’ last five games.
Jets (5-7) @ Jaguars (2-10)—Dysfunctional Jets are road favorite despite not knowing which one of their three lousy QB’s will start; they ran ball for 177 yards last week, but struggled to beat a team 7-6; Cardinals were second team in last 50 years to throw 30+ passes and gain less than 75 yards doing it. Jets are 3-2 vs spread when favored this year, 1-0 on road; they’re 2-3 SU on road, winning at Miami/St Louis. Jaguars are 1-5 at home, with all five losses by 17+ points; only games they’ve won, they gave up 17-19 points. Jets scored less than 10 points in three of last five games. This is Jets’ first game on grass since Week 3 (1-1 in ’12). Home side won seven of 10 series games; Jets are 0-3 here, getting outscored by total of 69-3 in last two visits, last of which was in ’06. AFC East favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 3-2 on road. AFC South underdogs are 11-10, 5-4 at home. Three of Jets’ last four road games went over; four of six Jaguar home games stayed under total.
Bears (8-4) @ Vikings (6-6)—Chicago lost three of last four games, Minnesota lost four of last five, so obviously critical game here; Bears (-6.5) drilled Vikings 28-10 at home two weeks ago, their sixth straight series win, converting 11-19 on 3rd down, using turnovers to score TDs on short drives of 34-13 yards in game they led 25-3 at half. Minnesota didn’t score on two of three drives inside red zone, averaged only 3.2 ypa. Four of Bears’ last five series wins were by 14+ points- they won last two visits here, 40-14/17-12. Vikings are 5-1 when they score 21+ points, 1-5 when they don’t; they’re 5-1 at home, with only loss a Thursday game vs Bucs. Minnesota ran ball for 240 yards last week at Lambeau, but turned ball over twice, 7th time in last eight games they had 2+ giveaways. Home teams are 4-4 vs spread in NFC North games, home dogs are 1-1. Chicago’s last four road games went over the total.
Falcons (11-1) @ Panthers (3-9)—If Falcons win #1 seed in NFC, they could get to Super Bowl without playing any more outdoor games after today. Atlanta (-7) snuck past Panthers 30-28 in Week 4, despite scoring only one TD on four red zone drives; they’ve won last five series games, scoring 30+ points in all five- they won 31-10/31-23 in last two visits here. Falcons had three extra days to prepare after finally beating rival Saints last game; they’re 5-1 on road, 2-1-1 as road favorites, winning by 16-24-7-13-1 point, with loss in New Orleans. Carolina lost four of last five games, getting beat at somber Arrowhead last week; they’ve lost last five home games, by 29-4-5-22-6 points. Panthers are 4-3 as underdogs this year, but 1-3 at home. NFC South home underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in divisional games this year. Six of last eight Falcon games stayed under total; three of last four Carolina games went over.
Eagles (3-9) @ Buccaneers (6-6)—Philly (only wins by 1-1-2 points) is playing out string; can’t expect big effort from them here, after playing in primetime last two weeks. Eagles lost eight games in row, allowing 26+ points in last seven, 30+ in last four (gave up 12 TD’s on 29 drives in last three games); they’re 2-4 as a dog this year, 2-2 on road, losing away games by 21-2-15-25-5 points, with only win 17-16 at Cleveland in Week 1. Bucs allowed 26.2 ppg in last five games, losing last two; they’re 3-3 at home this year, 2-1 as home faves, winning home games by 6-28-10 points- they’re 5-0 when allowing less than 21 points. Eagles scored 10.8 ppg in four road games on grass. Teams last met in ’09; Eagles are 2-3 in five visits here, with last one in ’06. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 6-3 on road; NFC South favorites are 10-8, 6-7 at home. Five of last seven Iggle games, seven of last nine Tampa games went over the total.
Rams (5-6-1) @ Bills (5-7)—St Louis is 4-0-1 in division games, 1-6 outside NFC West; they’re 1-5 away from home, and a dome team playing in western NY in December, but they’re also finding ways to win (three defensive TD’s in last two games, all by Jenkins) and just played rival 49ers tough twice in four weeks (1-0-1). Bills ran ball 46 times last week, passed it only 17, so up to sturdy Ram defense to contain Spiller and make former Ram Fitzpatrick beat them thru air. Buffalo covered four of five tries as a favorite this season; they’ve won five of last six games in seldom-played series, with average total in last five meetings, 57; don’t forget Fisher’s Titans tore Bills’ fans hearts out with Music City Miracle in ’99 playoffs. NFC West underdogs are 12-6 vs spread, 8-5 on road; AFC East favorites are 8-6, 5-4 at home. Five of last six St Louis games, four of last five Buffalo home games went over total.
Cowboys (6-6) @ Bengals (7-5)—Well-coached Bengals (Gruden/Zimmer top coordinators) won/covered last four games, allowing 10.5 ppg (two TDs on last 45 drives); they’re just 3-3 at home, but won 31-13/34-10 in last two at home-- contention has sparked fan interest. Can’t ignore fact that in last four games, just in second half of those games, Dallas has scored 28-23-28-28 points, so they make great adjustments at halftime and put points on board. Pokes are 3-3 SU on road, 2-1 as road dogs, with losses by 20-2-6 points- their defense has fallen off, allowing 142-183 rushing yards last two games, creating few chances for offense. Six of last seven Dallas TDs came on drives of 75+ yards, though defense did chip in with clinching TD at end of Philly game last week. NFC East underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 6-3 on road. AFC North favorites are 8-9, 4-5 at home. Six of last nine Dallas games went over total; four of last five Bengal games stayed under.
Dolphins (5-7) @ 49ers (8-3-1)—Miami lost four of last five games after promising start, but only one of losses was by more than 7 points (were -4 in turnovers in 37-3 home loss to Titans); Dolphins are 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 20-3-3-5 points. Problem is, they’ve had only one takeaway in last five games (-8), and lost field position by 21-10-10-3 yards in last four games. 49ers got upset in St Louis last week; they’re 3-3 as home favorites this year, winning at Candlestick by 8-42-7-25 points, losing to Giants, tying Rams. After being +28 in turnovers LY, they’re only +5 this year, which is still good- they’ve had field position edge in last six games. Mobile QB Kaepernick has infused run game that gained 123-144-148 yards in his three starts. Miami is 6-5 in seldom-played series, 3-2 here, with last visit in ’04. NFC West favorites are 7-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC East underdogs are 8-7, 5-6 on road. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Miami games, 1-3 last four 49er games.
Saints (5-7) @ Giants (7-5)—Sean Payton was once fired as Giants’ OC, felt he took special delight in pounding them as head coach (won last three meetings, scoring 30-48-49 points), he will be missed here. Saints lost last two weeks to slide out of playoff contention, but have four extra days to prep here, with Giants having played on Monday, NO last Thursday. Saints are 2-4 on road, with losses by 8-1-20-10 points, with wins at Tampa/Oakland. Giants lost three of last four games; they’re 2-4 as home favorites this year, 4-2 SU, winning by 7-14-4-28 points, losing to Cowboys/Steelers. Expect big Blue to pound ball vs defense that allowed 120-144-124 yards on ground last three games. Home side won seven of last eight series games, with Saints losing four of last five visits here. NFC South underdogs are 9-5 vs spread, 9-2 on road; NFC East favorites are 4-13, 3-8 at home. Six of Saints’ last nine games went over; last four Giant games stayed under.
Cardinals (4-8) @ Seahawks (7-5)—Lindley was 10-31/72 yards last week, making him second QB in last 50 years to throw 30+ passes and gain less than 75 yards. Arizona’s lack of competent QB play has turned a 4-0 start into a 4-8 debacle; they’re 3-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 14-7-14-4-1 point. In last three weeks, Cardinals lost games where they were +5/+3 in turnovers, which rarely happens. Seahawks won/covered all five home games; they were underdog in three of them- they’ve got home wins by 20-2-1-10-21 points. Wilson’s first NFL start was 20-16 (-1.5) loss in desert in Week 1, when Seattle scored only 13 points in four red zone drives, and averaged 3.8 ypa. Home side won five of last six series games; Redbirds lost seven of last nine visits here, losing 22-10/13-10 in last two. Underdogs are 6-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games, 2-0-1 on road. Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total; four of last five Seattle games went over.
Lions (4-8) @ Packers (8-4)—Green Bay had 13-yard edge in field position, snuck past Lions 24-20 (-3.5) in Detroit three weeks ago, its third series win in row and 13th in last 14 tries. Lions lost last 18 visits to Lambeau, though last two years they lost by 2-4 points. Last time Detroit won at Lambeau I was unmarried and had hair (1991). Now I’m bald/divorced. Lions scored 31-33 points last two weeks, lost both games; in second half of last four games, they’ve allowed 21-17-20-21 points, just in 2nd half!!! Detroit is 2-4 SU on road, 2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 8-3-6-10 points. Packers trailed last three games at half, kicking three FGs (no TD’s) on last four red zone drives; they allowed 147-240 rushing yards in last two games, and are 3-3 as home favorites, winning at Lambeau by 13-1-9-14-9 points (lost to 49ers). NFC North favorites are 4-4 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Five of last six Detroit games went over total; four of last five Green Bay games stayed under.
Texans (11-1) @ Patriots (9-3)— Easy to overlook that New England is +24 in turnovers this year (+11 in last four games), a remarkable number; 49ers were +28 LY, and they have chance to beat that. Third week in row on road for Houston, historically a red flag for any team, but Texans are 6-0 on road, with pair of 6-point wins and an OT win at Detroit. Top two teams in AFC square off in possible playoff preview; Texans’ offense is geared towards good weather- they snuck past Bears 13-6 in sloppy night game four weeks ago. Have to wonder about Houston defense after Jaguars/Lions scored 37-31 points in games 2-3 weeks ago, Wes Welker blew out his knee last time teams met, a 34-27 Houston win in season finale few years ago; Patriots won two of three series games, winning 40-7 in only meeting here in ‘06. AFC East favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 11-10, 6-6 on road. Nine of last ten New England games went over total; three of Texans’ last four road games stayed under.Comment
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Mark Lawrence Playbook
3★ BEST BET- Tennessee (+5) over INDIANAPOLIS by 6
4★ BEST BET- Detroit (+6.5) over GREEN BAY by 3
5★ BEST BET- NEW ENGLAND (-3)over Houston by 15Comment
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DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index
Week 14 Predictions
Week
Straight Up: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS Vary Units: 7-0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 0-1 (.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 0-7 (.000)
Season
Straight Up: 112-70 (.615)
ATS: 80-107 (.428)
ATS Vary Units: 356-567 (.386)
Over/Under: 93-96 (.492)
Over/Under Vary Units: 363-317 (.534)
Sunday, December 9, 2012
BUFFALO 23, St. Louis 20
CINCINNATI 31, Dallas 18
CLEVELAND 23, Kansas City 12
TAMPA BAY 37, Philadelphia 19
Baltimore 24, WASHINGTON 21
Atlanta 30, CAROLINA 17
N.Y. Jets 25, JACKSONVILLE 19
INDIANAPOLIS 32, Tennessee 18
Chicago 21, MINNESOTA 20
PITTSBURGH 24, San Diego 13
SAN FRANCISCO 25, Miami 12
SEATTLE 25, Arizona 9
N.Y. GIANTS 29, New Orleans 25
GREEN BAY 34, Detroit 26Comment
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Cappers Access
Titans
Bears
Seahawks
PackersComment
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NFLBettingPicks
With Roethlisberger starting for Pittsburgh the line was release tonight and I've added a teaser that I think is +EV for us this week...
2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser =STEELERS -1.5 and BUCCANEERS -1 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)
--Notes: I bet this at Bookmaker.eu (you click on the dropdown menu that says "straight" and select teaser). At 5dimes.eu teasers can be found along the left hand side and because of how 5dimes has this shaded you will need to most likely click 7 point teaser "ties win" and not "ties reduce". If you don't understand just email me with any questions.
The Steelers covers the basic teaser strategy of crossing over key numbers in 7 and 3, and line movement has already taken Pittsburgh to -8 (-105) at Pinnancle right now. While the Buccaneers are -7 right now you will note that some books have them shaded to -9 to prevent teasers. The money line odds on the Buccs is -345 right now at Pinnacle giving us a no-vig line of about -310 (75.66% chance of winning). This should be a +EV teaser with two home teams both fighting for the playoffs against two weaker opponents.
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Other picks already sent out are below...
4 UNIT = Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Redskins - REDSKINS -2.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 4.40 units to win 4.00 units)
Baltimore enters this game with a 9-3 record and in first place in the AFC North. They are 4-2 on the road this year. The Ravens are coming off a 23-20 loss to the Steelers at home as 7 point favorites, as the Steelers were missing Ben Roethlisberger. Before that game the Ravens have won 4 straight and 8 of 9, but with a closer look at their schedule it really fails to impress me. The only real impressive wins were at home vs New England by a single point (missed FG at the end by NE) and in their home opener vs the Bengals where they won 44-13. The Ravens beat Dallas, who haven't been too good this year, by just 2 points at home and barely got by the Steelers with Byron Leftwich as the starting QB and playing through a broken rib. In their other wins they did take care of a bad Oakland team beating them by 35 points at home, but it took overtime to beat the 4-8 Chargers by a FG, they've beat Cleveland by 10 and 7 points, and Kansas City by 3 points. Note that their 4 road wins have come by a combined 19 points and those games came against well below .500 teams + the Steelers without Roethlisberger. Other road games included a 24-23 loss in Philadelphia, and a 43-13 loss in Houston. The Washington Redskins are 6-6 on the season and 3-3 at home. They are fighting for a playoff spot and helped their chances on Monday night with a 17-16 win over the defending Super Bowl Champs. Since their bye week they are now 3-0 and have seemed to really come together in the past couple weeks. 4 of the Redskins 6 losses have come against teams that are either in a playoff spot or currently tied for a playoff spot. Washington has beaten some good teams including New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and the Giants, and have other impressive wins @Dallas on Thanksgiving, vs Minnesota by 12 points at home, and vs Philadelphia by 25 points at home. Both the Ravens and Redskins are struggling defensively with Baltimore ranked 25th and giving up 20.2 papg and the Redskins ranked 29th giving up 25.1 papg. Offensively the Redskins rank 7th in the NFL and are averaging 26 ppg, while the Ravens rank 19th and average 25.2 ppg. Take note that on the road the Ravens are averaging just 16.5 ppg. Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Baltimore hasn't proven much at all on the road this year and will have another tough test against a confident Redskins team that has their offense clicking. I like the Redskins to win and cover the spread for a 4 unit play.
2 UNIT = Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers - FALCONS -3 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)
The Falcons are 11-1 on the season entering this game and 5-1 on the road. They are coming off a big 23-13 win at home vs the Saints on Thursday night and have now won 3 straight after losing in New Orleans a few weeks back. Atlanta hasn't had too many tough tests yet this year, but they've continued to look impressive and are 7-4-1 ATS. The Panthers had high expectations heading into this year but are just 3-9 entering Week 14, and an awful 1-5 at home. They failed to beat Kansas City last week as 5.5 point favorites, losing by 6, which came after a Prime Time win in Philadelphia. These two teams met earlier in the season with the Falcons barely squeaking out a 30-28 victory as 7 point favorites. Atlanta has won the last 5 meetings between these two teams, including 31-23 in Carolina last year in December. They've covered the spread in 4 of those 5 meetings as well. Atlanta ranks 9th on offense and are averaging 26.4 ppg, while Carolina is 18th averaging just 19.6 ppg. Defensively Carolina ranks ahead of Atlanta at 14 (vs 18), but the Falcons are allowing just 19.1 papg while the Panthers are allowing 24.3 papg. Note that th Falcons are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 vs a team with a losing record, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Falcons do have a big game coming up against the Giants next week, but I can't see them looking past a team they barely beat earlier in the season. I expect Atlanta to come out and win their 6th straight vs Carolina and cover the spread in doing so.
2 UNIT = Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns - BROWNS -5.5 (-104)
(Note: I'm risking 2.08 units to win 2.00 units)
Kansas City is one of the worst teams in the NFL this season with their 2-10 record, which includes being just 1-4 on the road. They are coming off a big emotional victory at home vs Carolina last week, but had lost 8 straight games prior to that. If you look further into their 8 game losing streak prior to Sunday you will notice that they scored 16 or fewer points in all but one of those games and averaged 11.63 ppg during that 8 game losing skid. The Cleveland Browns are just 4-8 on the season, but they've been somewhat impressive throughout the year. They are 3-3 at home this season and 7-4-1 ATS. They've won two straight games vs Oakland and Pittsburgh, and their other wins have come against Cincinnati and San Diego at home. It took Dallas overtime to beat Cleveland in Dallas 3 weeks ago, and the game prior to that the Ravens escaped with a 10 point win over the Browns but that was also a tight game. Overall Cleveland has been competitive in almost all of their games played this year. The same cannot be said about the Chiefs. Overall the Chiefs rank 21st on offense but are scoring jsut 15.7 ppg, while the Browns rank 27th scoring 19.1 ppg. Kansas City is 16th defensively but giving up 26.8 papg, while the Browns are 23rd but giving up 22.1 papg. Take note that the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a straight up victory. The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December. Even though the Browns have just 2 more wins than the Chiefs I think they are quite a bit better this year, and I will lay the points with the Browns at home.
2 UNIT = Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts - UNDER 48 (-106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.12 units to win 2.00 units)
Tennessee enters this game 4-8 on the year and 2-4 on the road. Take note that UNDER is 4-1 in the Titans last 5 games, as they've scored 20 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 and have given up 24 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Colts are in a playoff spot to almost everyone's surprise with their 8-4 record and 5-1 home record. Indianapolis has their offense going, but they've also stepped it up defensively. The Colts have allowed 13 or fewer points against in 4 of their last 7 games and 20 or fewer points against in 5 of 7. These two teams have already met once this season with a Colts 19-13 victory in Tennessee. Take note that while the Colts are ranked 3rd in offense they are averaging just 22.1 ppg. The Titans are ranked 23rd overall on offense and averaging just 20.7 ppg. Both teams aren't too strong defensively with Indy giving up 25.5 papg and the Titans giving up 29.9 papg, but being divisional rivals they usually play each other tight. In their two meetings last year the teams split with each winning at home. The totals of those two games were 40 and 37. Overall the UNDER is 7-1 in their last 8 meetings, and 10-1 in their last 11 meetings in Indianapolis. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the Titans last 20 vs divisional opponents, and 4-0-1 in their last 5 games in December. The UNDER is 10-1 in the Colts last 11 vs divisional opponents, 10-1 in their last 11 home games, and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record. The UNDER is also 15-6 in their last 21 games overall. Both teams play the UNDER at a high percentage vs divisional opponents, and the past has shown these two play each other to the UNDER. I don't see anything being different this week and with a high total I will take the UNDER.
2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers - PACKERS -6.5 (-109)
(Note: I'm risking 2.18 units to win 2.00 units)
Detroit has had quite the rough season entering Sunday's meeting with a 4-8 record overall and 2-4 road record. The Lions have lost 4 straight games, which have included a few tough losses. Last week the Lions blew their lead late losing 35-33 on the last play of the game. Prior to that the Lions lost in overtime on Thanksgiving to the Texans. Detroit's wins this year have come against St Louis, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Jacksonville. Their only somewhat impressive win was vs Seattle and that was in Detroit and it took a late touchdown to win. The Packers are 8-4 head into Sunday's game and well on their way to another playoff appearance. They are a solid 5-1 at home after a 23-14 victory over Minnesota last week. Green Bay had won 5 straight before going into New York and losing by 28 points to the Giants. Included in those wins was a 24-20 victory over the Lions. The win was their 3rd straight vs Detroit, and the Packers have pretty much owned the Lions over recent years. Take note that the Lions do rank 2nd in the NFL offensively compared to the Packers at 16th, but are averaging just 0.3 more ppg at 25 compared to the Packers are 24.7 ppg. Defensively the Packers are allowing 21.6 papg, while the Lions are giving up 26.2 papg. The Lions have given up 34 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games and 24 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Take note that the Lions are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs NFC opponents, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs divisional opponents, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Packers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs divisional opponents, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 overall, and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games. Green Bay is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings vs Detroit. The Lions should be able to put up a couple scores in this one but I can't see their defense doing much to stop Rodgers and the Packers offense. The Packers continue to beat up on Detroit winning and covering on Sunday night.
Let's get it this week,
Kevin
NFLBettingPicksComment
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Football Jesus wk 14 Podcast : PatriotsComment
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Saints at Giants: What Bettors Need to Know
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-4.5, 53)
Eli Manning and Drew Brees are supposed to be two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The results have not matched the narrative of late. The defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants have dropped three of their last four games and have squandered a healthy lead in the NFC East. Just one game up in the division, the Giants will be looking to pad their lead when they host Brees and the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.
The Saints had won five of six games following an 0-4 start, giving their fans some hope of a late move into playoff contention. But the last two weeks have been a disaster, with Brees throwing a total of seven interceptions in losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons. Manning’s touchdown-to-interception ratio has been a big concern to the Giants as well, with the Super Bowl MVP going three straight games without a TD pass before engineering a win over Green Bay in Week 12. He found the end zone again on Monday but led only one field goal drive in the second half of a loss to Washington.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Giants -4.5, O/U 53
WEATHER: Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-40s with a 50 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the NE at 3 mph.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-7): Brees was picked off five times and did not have a touchdown pass in a 23-13 loss at Atlanta on Nov. 29, breaking his NFL-record string of 54 straight games with at least one TD pass. The week before, Brees had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in a 31-21 loss to San Francisco. Brees has been forced to take chances this season because of New Orleans’ league-worst defense, which has surrendered an average of 440.5 yards and 27.3 points. The rushing defense has been particularly poor, allowing opposing backs to shred through for 153.8 yards. Brees’ own rushing attack has not been much help, either. The Saints need to win all four of their remaining games to have a shot at a postseason berth and still have games against playoff hopefuls Tampa Bay and the Dallas Cowboys.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (7-5): New York started off strong and is lucky to be in a division with no other dominant teams, keeping them a game up in the East. The Giants have split the season series with Washington and Dallas but still have tough road games at Atlanta and Baltimore coming up over the next two weeks. Manning seems to be pulling out of his funk and has a chance to put up big numbers against the New Orleans’ secondary. Manning threw for 406 yards and a pair of TDs in a loss at the Saints last season. New York could also lean on running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and David Wilson against the New Orleans run defense.
TRENDS:
* Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants’ last four games overall.
* Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five December games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Brees threw for 363 yards, four TDs and 0 INT, and also ran for a score in the 49-24 win over the Giants last season.
2. New York T Sean Locklear is out for the season after suffering a knee injury on Monday. He will be replaced by veteran David Diehl.
3. New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham has a TD reception in 12 of his last 16 games.Comment
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Cowboys at Bengals: What Bettors Need to Know
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 46)
The Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys are making their respective pushes toward the postseason. The Bengals will look to record their second five-game winning streak in two years when they host the Cowboys in the Queen City on Sunday. Andy Dalton overcame a two-interception performance by running for a 6-yard score in Cincinnati's 20-13 triumph over San Diego last week.
While the Bengals sit two games removed of AFC North-leading Baltimore, the Cowboys' deficit is just one behind the New York Giants in the suddenly competitive NFC East. Dallas secured its third win in four tries by scoring 21 fourth-quarter points en route to a 38-33 victory over reeling Philadelphia on Sunday night. Tony Romo tossed three touchdown passes in the win to become the franchise's leader in that department.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Bengals -3, O/U 46
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with an 85 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the SE at 13 mph.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-6): DeMarco Murray rushed for 83 yards and a touchdown in his return from a six-game absence due to a sprained right foot. With the legitimate threat of a running game, Romo may find the passing lanes more attractive by way of using play-action. Favorite target Jason Witten has 30 receptions in his last four games while talented wideout Dez Bryant has collected six touchdowns in that span.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (7-5): BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who has rushed for 100-plus yards in three straight games, is on pace for a career-high 1,180 yards. Like Dallas, a vaunted rushing game will create holes for Dalton as well. That could only spell good news for former Georgia wideout A.J. Green, who will likely be reunited with Cowboys cornerback and Southeastern Conference rival Morris Claiborne (Louisiana State). Green has failed to score in his last two contests following a nine-game touchdown streak.
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Bengals' last four games overall.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last nine road games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Cowboys NT Josh Brent was arrested on charges of intoxication manslaughter after flipping his car Saturday morning in an accident that killed his teammate and passenger Jerry Brown, who was signed to the team's practice squad in October. Brent did not make the trip to Cincinnati.
2. Romo will need to be on alert against Cincinnati, which leads the NFL with 39 sacks.
3. C Phil Costa became the 10th Dallas player - and sixth starter - to go on injured reserve. Costa partially dislocated his ankle versus Carolina on Oct. 21 and failed to completely recover.Comment
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NFL Prop Shop: Week 14's Best Prop Plays
by Sean Murphy
We were shut out inside the Prop Shop last week, a disappointing result that dropped us to 26-24-2 on the season. We'll get back on track with four winners this Sunday.
Most passing yards
Jake Locker (Tennessee Titans) vs. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
This is an easy choice, as Jake Locker and the Titans offense continues to move backwards while Andrew Luck leads the Colts march toward an improbable playoff berth.
I'm not sure that Locker is the answer in Tennessee and Titans fans everywhere have to be wondering the same thing. With a weak supporting cast, all of the blame can't be heaped onto the second-year starter. But the athleticism Locker showed in college just hasn't paid dividends in the pro game. He's in for another sub-par performance against an improving Colts defense on Sunday.
Take: Luck
Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams) vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills)
The Bills scored 34 points in a win over the Jags last week but that only masked the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick once again struggled, throwing for just 112 yards. Buffalo's passing game has run dry after enjoying plenty of success over the last couple of years and this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back spot against an underrated Rams defense.
Sam Bradford has racked up over 200 passing yards in six of his last seven games. He didn't throw a touchdown pass, ending his streak of throwing exactly two in three straight games, but should find the end zone and more importantly throw for over 200 yards against a depleted Bills defense.
Take: Bradford
Most rushing yards
Bryce Brown (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Bryce Brown is making the most of his opportunity in the Eagles backfield, having run for 178 and 169 yards in two games as a starter. With LeSean McCoy sidelined again this Sunday, Brown will be the focal point of the offense.
Doug Martin hasn't come close to recapturing the form that saw him run for 251 yards back in Week 9. He's gained fewer than 70 yards in three of four games since and, surprisingly enough, he has only three 100-plus yard rushing games this season. The Eagles defense shows some pride and stuffs the run Sunday afternoon.
Take: Brown
Most pass receptions
Anquan Boldin (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Santana Moss (Washington Redskins)
Both of these veteran receivers have seen their workload decrease this season.
However, it's Boldin that has shown signs of life recently, hauling in at least four catches in four of the last five games. He led the team with five catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers last week.
Moss was completely shut out on Monday night. With Pierre Garcon back in the mix and quickly becoming RGIII's favorite target, Santana will continue to be an afterthought in the Redskins offense.
Take: BoldinComment
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