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Indian Cowboy's Picks For College Basketball
We will probably have less plays from Monday-Friday. More than likely passing two of those days. On Saturdays, because of the value we will have more plays. We will still average somewhere between 7-10 plays per week as we were before. Just playing more on Saturday and less on weekdays for more value as we have more games to choose from Saturday. Essentially, why force a play on Wednesday for example when you have 50+ games to choose from on Saturday.
4-Unit Play. #530. Take Illinois-Chicago -9 over Eastern Michigan (Saturday @ 2pm est).
4-Unit Play. #603. Take Iona +3 over Georgia (Saturday @ 5pm est).
4-Unit Play. #559. Take San Francisco +2.5 over Nevada (Saturday @ 6pm est).
4-Unit Play. #607. Take Belmont +13 over Kansas (Saturday @ 7pm est).
4-Unit Play. #622. Take Weber State +2 over BYU (Saturday @ 9pm est).
Eastern Michigan comes off a huge win over Purdue by a score of 47-44. Purdue probably feels terrible about losing that game as they were looking ahead to Notre Dame today (I talk about it in the leans, but I think Purdue could bury the public as 78% on Notre Dame, we are staying away however). As per this game, Illinois-Chicago is a top 130 team and Howard Moore has his team winning 8 games already by December 15th and that is tied with the total number of wins last year overall. That just goes to show how much this team has improved. Their wins have come against quality schools such as Iona who is a top 150 school and beating Northwestern a Big10 school on the road by 6 points and recently beating Colorado State at home by 9 points. This team has done with a stifling defense that is ranked 60th in the nation and outside of Iona who is ranked 70th in the nation in offense, no team has scored 66 points on this team. Eastern Illinois beat this team last year as well. So, they come off a huge win against Purdue and a Illinois-Chicago team waiting in the wings with revenge as Eastern Michigan hopes to avoid a huge let down. Eastern Michigan is ranked top 300 in total offense and their saving grace is a defense which is top 130. However, Eastern Michigan is top 340 in effective field goal percentage and outside the top 250 in 3 point shooting and outside the top 200 in turnover percentage. So, you have revenge, Eastern Michigan off a big win and possible let down with a poor offensive efficiency and turnover margin and Eastern Illinois with a top 120 ability to shoot 3 pointers, top 20 in the nation in turnover percentage and a top 60 defense. There is math supporting Iona doing well today and winning by a point. Normally I would want a larger margin that that differential. But, I have faded Georgia all year and its tough to get off the bandwagon now. This is a good public fade. Iona is a top 70 offensive team which shoot give Georgia trouble who has trouble scoring points. Iona beat Wake by 26 earlier this year (who is outside the top 200), beat Niagara by 11 (who is top 175) and comes off an 8 point loss top 100 Rutgers. I like that. With the fact they are coming off a loss to a good Rutgers team and they are looking to bounce-back. Georgia returns home form a difficult road trip and I suspect they will play well here. But, they are a team that has put together just two wins this year and they were both against teams who were outside the top 200 including Jacksonville and East Tennessee State. Georgia is outside the top 270 in 3 point field goals as well as they are a great big underdog but struggle to win straight up games. Iona is a good shooting team at top 60 in 3 point field goal percentage in the nation and 4th in the nation free throw percentage at over 80%. I like Iona to win this game Outright. I think San Francisco wins this game Outright. I have them as a top 120 team and coached by an excellent coach in Rex Walters. Walters took a 10 win team in 2008 to 20 wins in 2012. This team is the top 3 point shooting team in the country (at 44.8%) and they are top 160 in defense to boot. They are also top 60 in turnover margin. I like the fact they come off a loss to a top 150 Pacific team and now look to bounce-back. Nevada is a good team on the rise but their defense is ranked top 300 when it comes to stopping the 3 point field goal percentage so if San Francisco is able to get their 3 ball going early it could be a long day for Nevada who will have to play catch up which they typically do not do well. I like San Fran to do well and its a good public fade on a late game as well. Belmont is a very good team. In fact, I believe they should be ranked 25th in the nation. This team is coached by Rick Byrd who had this team win 27 games last year and this year they are led by 3 solid seniors. This team is not intimidated or scared by any means to go into Kansas. This is why the line is 10-15 for this game when on any other Saturday the line would be around 18-24 for a Kansas weekend game. Belmont is 15th in the nation in total offense and top 45 in defense. They are senior led and have beaten the likes of Stanford by 8 points earlier this year, Oral Robers by 3 and a very good Middle Tennessee team by double-digits. This is a solid public fade and the 3 ball will keep Belmont around this game and Kansas for as good as they are, they have not beat a top 25 ranked team this year in the power rankings. I like the points here. BYU comes off winning a holy war against Utah winning by 3 points. They are probably not as excited about this game after that huge win. How do you get up for Weber State after you just beat your arch rival by 1 bucket at home? BYU is a very good team. They are top 100 and coached by a solid front man in Dave Rose. This team's biggest win was against Montana in a semi-home game winning by 25 who is a top 150 team. I point that out to note this team has to go on the road now to face a top 120 team in Weber State. Up to this point BYU has not beat a top 120 team. And, now they have to go on the road to face one en route after a huge win and in a spot for a let down here. BYU is a solid team but they don't shoot the ball particular well from behind the arc as they are top 240 and Weber State is a top 100 3 point shooting team who also sports it with a top 110 defense and top 30 in turnover percentage from long-time head coach in Randy Rahne. I like Weber State as a good public fade this evening as a team that has a good shot at winning outright.
Leans (These are not plays, just thoughts): Iowa has revenge against Northern Iowa, Purdue comes off a terrible loss to Eastern Michigan scoring 44 points probably looking ahead to this Notre Dame game in which 78% of the public favors Notre Dame, would not be surprised to see Purdue fall inside the spread as a great public fade, also have numbers supporting Southern Illinois doing well but laid off as their opponent has revenge against them and they come off a series of tough losses.
We will probably have less plays from Monday-Friday. More than likely passing two of those days. On Saturdays, because of the value we will have more plays. We will still average somewhere between 7-10 plays per week as we were before. Just playing more on Saturday and less on weekdays for more value as we have more games to choose from Saturday. Essentially, why force a play on Wednesday for example when you have 50+ games to choose from on Saturday.
4-Unit Play. #530. Take Illinois-Chicago -9 over Eastern Michigan (Saturday @ 2pm est).
4-Unit Play. #603. Take Iona +3 over Georgia (Saturday @ 5pm est).
4-Unit Play. #559. Take San Francisco +2.5 over Nevada (Saturday @ 6pm est).
4-Unit Play. #607. Take Belmont +13 over Kansas (Saturday @ 7pm est).
4-Unit Play. #622. Take Weber State +2 over BYU (Saturday @ 9pm est).
Eastern Michigan comes off a huge win over Purdue by a score of 47-44. Purdue probably feels terrible about losing that game as they were looking ahead to Notre Dame today (I talk about it in the leans, but I think Purdue could bury the public as 78% on Notre Dame, we are staying away however). As per this game, Illinois-Chicago is a top 130 team and Howard Moore has his team winning 8 games already by December 15th and that is tied with the total number of wins last year overall. That just goes to show how much this team has improved. Their wins have come against quality schools such as Iona who is a top 150 school and beating Northwestern a Big10 school on the road by 6 points and recently beating Colorado State at home by 9 points. This team has done with a stifling defense that is ranked 60th in the nation and outside of Iona who is ranked 70th in the nation in offense, no team has scored 66 points on this team. Eastern Illinois beat this team last year as well. So, they come off a huge win against Purdue and a Illinois-Chicago team waiting in the wings with revenge as Eastern Michigan hopes to avoid a huge let down. Eastern Michigan is ranked top 300 in total offense and their saving grace is a defense which is top 130. However, Eastern Michigan is top 340 in effective field goal percentage and outside the top 250 in 3 point shooting and outside the top 200 in turnover percentage. So, you have revenge, Eastern Michigan off a big win and possible let down with a poor offensive efficiency and turnover margin and Eastern Illinois with a top 120 ability to shoot 3 pointers, top 20 in the nation in turnover percentage and a top 60 defense. There is math supporting Iona doing well today and winning by a point. Normally I would want a larger margin that that differential. But, I have faded Georgia all year and its tough to get off the bandwagon now. This is a good public fade. Iona is a top 70 offensive team which shoot give Georgia trouble who has trouble scoring points. Iona beat Wake by 26 earlier this year (who is outside the top 200), beat Niagara by 11 (who is top 175) and comes off an 8 point loss top 100 Rutgers. I like that. With the fact they are coming off a loss to a good Rutgers team and they are looking to bounce-back. Georgia returns home form a difficult road trip and I suspect they will play well here. But, they are a team that has put together just two wins this year and they were both against teams who were outside the top 200 including Jacksonville and East Tennessee State. Georgia is outside the top 270 in 3 point field goals as well as they are a great big underdog but struggle to win straight up games. Iona is a good shooting team at top 60 in 3 point field goal percentage in the nation and 4th in the nation free throw percentage at over 80%. I like Iona to win this game Outright. I think San Francisco wins this game Outright. I have them as a top 120 team and coached by an excellent coach in Rex Walters. Walters took a 10 win team in 2008 to 20 wins in 2012. This team is the top 3 point shooting team in the country (at 44.8%) and they are top 160 in defense to boot. They are also top 60 in turnover margin. I like the fact they come off a loss to a top 150 Pacific team and now look to bounce-back. Nevada is a good team on the rise but their defense is ranked top 300 when it comes to stopping the 3 point field goal percentage so if San Francisco is able to get their 3 ball going early it could be a long day for Nevada who will have to play catch up which they typically do not do well. I like San Fran to do well and its a good public fade on a late game as well. Belmont is a very good team. In fact, I believe they should be ranked 25th in the nation. This team is coached by Rick Byrd who had this team win 27 games last year and this year they are led by 3 solid seniors. This team is not intimidated or scared by any means to go into Kansas. This is why the line is 10-15 for this game when on any other Saturday the line would be around 18-24 for a Kansas weekend game. Belmont is 15th in the nation in total offense and top 45 in defense. They are senior led and have beaten the likes of Stanford by 8 points earlier this year, Oral Robers by 3 and a very good Middle Tennessee team by double-digits. This is a solid public fade and the 3 ball will keep Belmont around this game and Kansas for as good as they are, they have not beat a top 25 ranked team this year in the power rankings. I like the points here. BYU comes off winning a holy war against Utah winning by 3 points. They are probably not as excited about this game after that huge win. How do you get up for Weber State after you just beat your arch rival by 1 bucket at home? BYU is a very good team. They are top 100 and coached by a solid front man in Dave Rose. This team's biggest win was against Montana in a semi-home game winning by 25 who is a top 150 team. I point that out to note this team has to go on the road now to face a top 120 team in Weber State. Up to this point BYU has not beat a top 120 team. And, now they have to go on the road to face one en route after a huge win and in a spot for a let down here. BYU is a solid team but they don't shoot the ball particular well from behind the arc as they are top 240 and Weber State is a top 100 3 point shooting team who also sports it with a top 110 defense and top 30 in turnover percentage from long-time head coach in Randy Rahne. I like Weber State as a good public fade this evening as a team that has a good shot at winning outright.
Leans (These are not plays, just thoughts): Iowa has revenge against Northern Iowa, Purdue comes off a terrible loss to Eastern Michigan scoring 44 points probably looking ahead to this Notre Dame game in which 78% of the public favors Notre Dame, would not be surprised to see Purdue fall inside the spread as a great public fade, also have numbers supporting Southern Illinois doing well but laid off as their opponent has revenge against them and they come off a series of tough losses.
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