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3-Unit Play. #818. Take Missouri Kansas-City -4 over Appalachian State (Sunday @ 2pm est).
3-Unit Play. #824. Take Arkansas State -12.5 over Austin Peay (Sunday @ 3pm est).
Matt Brown's UMKC team comes off an embarrassing loss to Louisville on the road by a score of 99-47 and they look to take that sour taste out of their mouth with this game at home. Missouri KC is facing a top 580 team today in Appalachian State and they have beat better teams this year by wider margins. They beat a top 450 North Dakota State team by 3 points on the road, beat a top 500 IUPUI team by 14 at home and a top 200 Norfolk State team by 6 on neutral footing in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. This team had a similar loss to Ohio State earlier in the year losing 91-45 and they were able to bounce-back from the loss in their next game by 14 against IUPUI who is similarly ranked to App State. This is why we are on them today coming back after that ugly loss to Louisville and having the motivation to play well. As per Arkansas State, they have revenge against Austin Peay from an overtime loss last year. This is a revenge spot for them on their home floor. Arkansas State is a program that always seems to know what the spread is as well from their Football to their Basketball Programs. Arkansas State is favored by a wide margin today because of that revenge game in their memories from the overtime loss. Otherwise, they should be favored by -7.5 according to my numbers. Sometimes, you take a look at the wider margin and take a closer look at a game which is what we are doing here. Arkansas State is a top 50 turnover team and is top 140 in 3 point shooting. This is similar to Illinois-Chicago yesterday when we took them against Eastern Michigan given their strong 3 point shooting at home which always helps. Austin Peay played fairly well against Memphis and might be relatively confident from that loss. But, Memphis was probably looking ahead to Louisville. Plus, outside of Western Carolina which this team beat by 1 point who is a top 300 team, this team has not defeated a team within the 300 outside of that. And, Arkansas State just comes off beating top 115 St. Bonny by 3 points at home. I like Arkansas State here behind their 3 point shooting and with revenge against Austin Peay here.
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