12-16-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo's 10* NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR (PERFECT 7-0-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Dec 16 2012 1:00PM
Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans come into this game riding three-game losing streaks so clearly there is no momentum on either side. While the Buccaneers have lost their three games by a combined 11 points and the Saints have lost their three games by a combined 45 points, it is the latter which has actually been playing better. New Orleans outgained both the Falcons and Giants and are +53.7 ypg in those contests while Tampa Bay was outgained in all three and by an average of 59.3 ypg. Tampa Bay is still clinging on to a small hope of making the playoffs so this is obviously a must win situation. But coming off that loss against Philadelphia last week is devastating as it looked as though the Buccaneers had the game locked up. Not so much. The defense, which has actually been playing pretty well, fell apart at the worst possible time against the Eagles and now they will be facing Drew Brees who has put up a combined passer rating of 112.7, his worst two-game total since 2007. It is hard to explain the struggles of Brees but it is not lack of effort and you can just see that he is clearly frustrated over his performances. In the last three games, Brees has no touchdowns and six interceptions on 43 attempts of more than 10 yards, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But two of those games were on the road and the other was against the 49ers which have the second best total defense as well as the second best passing defense in the NFL. We will see a rebound here at home. While many will argue it has been the defense on top of it, turnovers have been the Saints undoing the last two games as they have a 9-3 disadvantage in that category. The defense has actually been fairly good as after allowing 400 or more total yards in each of its first 10 games, New Orleans has allowed fewer than 400 yards in each of its last three games, giving up just 350.7 ypg over that stretch. That certainly is not the best average but from what it was, it is a massive improvement. While the Saints playoff hopes are done, expect them to continue to play hard, especially at home as they know the fans deserve it. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg while the Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg. Also, the Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games as favorites of less than a touchdown and 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games after gaining 400 or more ypg over their last three games. 10* (308) New Orleans Saints


Prediction: New Orleans Saints


Bet Type: SPREAD

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo's NFL THREE-GM ACTION PACK (PERFECT 3-0 LW)
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams Dec 16 2012 1:00PM
We won with Minnesota last week against the Bears and were fortunate in doing so as the defense stepped up with two huge interception returns with one going for a touchdown and the other going down to the Bears five-yard line. The Vikings were outgained by 190 total yards but were able to still win by a touchdown to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. That was the third straight game as well as the sixth in the last seven that Minnesota has been outgained by the opposition. After winning at home in overtime against San Francisco, many expected the Rams to suffer a letdown in Buffalo but that was not the case as they rallied late to pull out the victory. That was the first time in the last 10 games that St. Louis was able to win after playing the 49ers and at 6-6, the playoffs are still a slight possibility. With the final two games of the season being on the road against Seattle and Tampa Bay, the Rams absolutely have to win this game to protect their home field. The Vikings have relied on running back Adrian Peterson to carry the offense over the last seven games as he is averaging 157.3 ypg over that stretch. To no surprise, quarterback Christian Ponder five quarterback ratings of 58.2 or worse so slowing down Peterson will definitely slow down the offense. The Rams have a defense that can do that. They are ranked 13th in rushing defense but they are allowing just 4.0 ypc which is tied for eighth in the NFL. Expect the unit to continue its strong play here. To add to that point, the Rams are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 4.5 ypc rushing or better. On the other side, Minnesota's defense has not been very good that last couple weeks especially last week as it allowed 438 yards against Chicago which was the Bears highest output since Week Five and second highest all season. The Vikings are 6-1 at home and 1-5 on the road and to no surprise, the home team is 10-2-1 ATS in Minnesota games this season. The Vikings are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a win as a home underdog while going 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games after allowing 400 or more yards in consecutive games. They also fall into a negative league situation as we play against teams coming off a divisional win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-28 AYS (71.1 percent) since 1983. St. Louis keeps the playoff dream alive after a home win Sunday. 9* (310) St. Louis Rams


Prediction: St. Louis Rams


Bet Type: SPREAD

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hollywood Sports' 25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR!
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons Dec 16 2012 1:00PM
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (306) minus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (305). Atlanta (11-2) played their worst game of the season last Sunday as they fell behind 23-0 in the 3rd quarter en route to their 30-20 loss at Carolina. Now for the first time all season, this is a Falcons team that is really facing some scrutiny given the evidence that left on the field that they remain unprepared to compete with the elite teams in the NFL. Now the defending Super Bowl champions come to town -- and they may be the ideal opponent for Atlanta in this spot to bounce-back by making a loud statement on their home field against the team that embarrassed them by a 24-2 score in last year's playoffs. The combination of head coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan have not lost back-to-back games in their tenure together in Atlanta. Furthermore, the Falcons have rebounded to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games following a loss. Part of the problem Atlanta had in Carolina was falling behind so quickly which forced them to abandon their running game. Michael Turner only rushed the ball seven times for a mere 14 yards. Turner is aging and has suffered from a handful of subpar games -- albeit the Falcons are fancying themselves as more of a passing team under first year offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. But Atlanta is also trying to limit Turner's carries so he can be effective in the playoffs -- and there have been times this season where Turner clearly brought his "A-Game" such as two weeks ago against the Saints when he rushed for 83 yards on twelve carries. In what may very well be the most important game of the Falcons' regular season now, look for Turner to offer his maximum effort in this statement game for the playoffs (not to much Atlanta's need to secure home field advantage). Overall, the Falcons ran the ball only eleven times for 35 yards last Sunday -- and they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after failing to get their running game going to at least 90 yards. But the Falcons did gain 362 total yards of offense last week -- and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Atlanta did not force any Panthers' turnovers last week -- while the Giants forced four Saints' turnovers -- and this helps place the Falcons into an empirical situational angle that has been 63% effective over the last ten seasons. Teams that failed to force at least one turnover in their last game now facing a team that forced at least three turnovers in their last contest have then covered the point spread in 147 of the last 254 situations where these conditions applied.


New York (8-5) has won two of their last three games after their dominant 52-27 blowout win against New Orleans. Despite the decisive victory, there is a significant area of concern for the Giants regarding their run defense. The Saints chewed up 142 yards on the ground in this contest which was the fifth time over their last seven games that New York has allowed at least 100 rushing yards. Over their last three games, the Giants have surrendered 467 rushing yards which is an ominous sign when facing this Falcons' team that will be very focused on re-establishing their commitment to running the football. Another concern regarding Giants' defense also relates to their defensive line as this vaunted unit has produced only one sack in three of their last four contests. New York looks due for (another) letdown in this spot as they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Giants did gain 394 total yards against New Orleans -- but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, New York allowed 487 yards of offense in that game -- and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Together, these team trends produce our specific 56-18-3 ATS combined angle for this situation. And, by the way, this is NOT a must-win game for the Giants despite the cacophony of critics suggesting otherwise. New York controls their own destiny with a one game lead in the NFC East. A loss here still keeps them on the proverbial edge they love to live on -- and last season proves that they do not need home field advantage in the playoffs.. Lastly, the Giants fall into a nasty contrarian angle that has been 72% effective over the last ten seasons. Road underdogs (or pick 'ems) who come off a game where they scored at least 30 points now facing a team that scored no more than 3 points in the first half in their last game have then failed to cover the point spread in 42 of the last 58 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (306) minus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (305). Best of luck for us -- Frank.


NFL UPDATE: After an NFL card that did not do much for me (although we did win all three of our plays last week), this week's card has popped with some super situations that I jumped on right away in what may very well be my favorite card of the entire NFL season. We have two huge plays in the NFL on Sunday with our 25* NFC Game of the Year and our 25* NFL Road Warrior of the Month with just a fantastic concurrence of events to set up these opportunities. I also really like the Sunday Night Football game. Our NFL week kicks off on Thursday in another great game where we have 25* plays on both the Side and the Total. As I dig deeper into the other game, we may very well release more games. And don't miss our first bowl release on Saturday as that is one of the best bowl opportunities in the dozen or so games I have already handicapped at this points. Thanks, Frank.


Prediction: Atlanta Falcons


Bet Type: SPREAD

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Burns NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR! *16-4 STREAK! ~ EARLY


New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons Dec 16 2012 1:00PM


I'm playing on New York and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. With all due respect to these offenses, which are both very capable, I feel that this number will prove to be too high. Both teams come in off "overs" and those results have worked in our favor by keeping this number generously high. Keep in mind, however, that both teams had seen each of their previous three games fall below the total. Also, in taking a closer look at last week's games, we find that the Giants were matched up against the defensively-challenged, yet high-scoring, Saints. Meanwhile, the Falcons game vs. Carolina was a tough loss for under bettors, myself included. That game had a combined score of just 16 at halftime. With less than five minutes left, the Panthers had the ball on their own side of the field and were up 23-13. However, a short pass went for a 50+ yard TD with four minutes left and the Falcons would add a meaningless TD inside the final minute. Still, note that the final score of 30-20 would have fallen below the higher O/U number available for this game. The previous week, the Falcons had been involved in a 23-13 affair with the Saints. Speaking of low-scoring games, last year's meeting in the playoffs between these teams produced only 26 total points, a game that had an O/U line of 48. The score was only 7-2 at halftime. The Giants, who are listed as slight underdogs here, have seen the UNDER go 6-1 the last seven times that they were road underdogs of three or fewer points. Overall, the champs have seen five of their six road games dip below the total this season, those games averaging 39.6 points. Last week's defeat was just the Falcon's second of the season. Off their previous loss, they responded with a dominant defensive effort, allowing a mere 178 total yards. The Falcons have seen the UNDER go 11-4 the last 15 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater, including 5-1 the past couple of seasons. I expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon. *10 NFC TOY


Prediction: under


Bet Type: TOTAL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SCOTT SPREITZER'S BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT GOY! 44-27!
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Dec 16 2012 1:00PM


I'm laying the points with Houston on Sunday. I played against the Texans on Monday night. While I expected a cover by New England, (obviously), I didn't expect an absolute mismatch. I did know that the Texans were in a horrible spot and just might lay an egg. Now they're back home against a division opponent that's not as good as their record indicates. And let's not forget that the Colts have been slaughtered on the road three times this season at Chicago, the NY Jets, and New England. Indy's defense was punished against those three teams and only one has an offense worthy of talking about (Patriots). Indy allowed 41 points and 428 yards on 6.29 yards per play to Chicago. They allowed the anemic Jets to run for 252 yards on 5.73 yards per carry, and gave up 446 yards on 7.43 yards per play at New England. I believe they're in for another beating in Houston. And when the Texans control a game (at 11-2 they normally do), they "own" the time of possession and keep the opposing offense on the sideline. I expect that to happen on Sunday. Houston enters on a 20-9 ATS run in their last 29 games. They're 17-5 ATS at home against teams with a winning record and 7-1-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, overall. I played against Indy when they played at New England and rode the Pats to a 59-24 win. I'm laying the points with Houston on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.


Prediction: Houston Texans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry's 10* NFL Underdog GOY:94% winning situation


Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens Dec 16 2012 1:00PM


My 10* NFL Underdog of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 Et.


Peyton Manning’s first season with Denver could NOT be going any better. He’s got an AFC-best 30 TD passes (just INTs) and his QB rating of 104.0 ranks fourth in the NFL The Broncos currently own the NFL’s longest active winning streak at eight in a row and at 10-3, have already clinched the AFC West. The Ravens were cruising along at 9-2 when they squandered at 13-3 first-half lead and then a seven-point 4th-quarter lead at home vs Pittsburgh in Week 13, losing 23-20 to their hated rivals who were playing behind third-string QB Charlie Batch. That contest ended a 15-game regular season home winning streak, as well as a 13-game AFC North winning streak for Baltimore. The Ravens then lost again last week at Washington, when backup QB Kirk Cousins led the Redskins on a 13-play, 84-yard TD drive, scoring with just 29 seconds to go, then adding the two-point conversion to send the game to OT (‘Skins won, 31-28). The Ravens have not been able to rely on their defense this season, as in year’s past. As the ESPN show says, Numbers Never Lie. Baltimore's once feared-defense ranks 24th overall (375.9 YPG) and 25th against the run (129.3 YPG). The offense has generally been very inconsistent. The fallout from last Sunday’s game was the firing of OC Cam Cameron, who will be replaced by Jim Caldwell. This game has huge significance, as the Ravens can move into a tie with the Broncos for the AFC’s third-best record with a win here. I have nothing bad to say about the Broncos but I will caution those who are giving them too much credit.. Let’s NOT forget that they’ve lost to the three-best teams they've played this season, 27-21 at 11-2 Atlanta (trailed 27-7 in the 4th), home to 11-2 Houston 31-25 (trailed 31-11 in the 4th) and at 10-3 New England 31-21 (trailed 31-7 in the late 3Q). The ONLY winning team the Broncos have beaten in their eight-game winning streak is the 7-6 Bengals, with the teams they’ve vanquished owning a combined record of 32-59 (.352), beating the 5-8 Chargers twice. Denver has dropped each of its five trips to Baltimore, including the last two by a combined 37 points, but of course, Manning could make a difference. However, just how does the team which had won 15 straight home games prior to its 4th-quarter collapse to Pittsburgh on Dec 2 get to be a home dog? The Ravens weren’t a home dog in any contest during the team's 15-game home winning streak and one has to go back to the 2009 season, some 24 games ago, to find the last time the Ravens were installed as a home dog. The 2009 season is also relevant for this factoid. The Ravens lost three straight games in Weeks 5 through 7 back in the 2009 season and then had a bye week. The Ravens returned to the field in Week 9 and CRUSHED the Broncos, 30-7. That began a steak in which the Ravens followed each and every regular season loss with a win. The streak had reached 15 in a row, before Baltimore lost Sunday in OT at Washington, the week after losing to the Steelers. That makes them 15-1 SU off a loss since mid-2009 and while Baltimore is NOT 15-1 ATS in those games, since the Ravens are the underdog here, as SU win is an ATS win, leaving us with a 15-1 (94%) winning situation! Flacco has struggled away from home in 2012, connecting on 57.1% with seven TDs and five INTs (75.4 QB rating), while leading the Ravens to an average of 21.2 PPG. However, here in Baltimore, he’s completing 63.3% with 11 TDs and just four INTs (100.7 QB rating) while leading the Ravens to an average of 34.0 PPG. Denver’s winning streak ends right here!


Good luck...Larry


Prediction: Baltimore Ravens


Bet Type: SPREAD

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry's NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider (9-3-1 run!)
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams Dec 16 2012 1:00PM


My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the StL Rams at 1:00 ET.


The Vikings are one of three 7-6 teams (Dallas and Washington are the other two) in the NFC trailing Seattle and Chicago (both 8-5) I for the conference’s two wild card spots. The Rams enter 6-6-1 and are still mathematically alive in the wild card chase, as well. The Vikings ended a two-game skid with a 21-14 home win over Chicago last Sunday while the Rams won 15-12 in Buffalo, the team’s third straight win. Minnesota opened 4-1 but had gone 2-5 since (1-5-1 ATS), before besting the Bears. The defense and QB Christian Ponder were the biggest culprits. The Minnesota D allowed 15.8 PPG in its 4-1 start but over its previous seven games (prior to last Sunday), had allowed 27.8 PPG. Ponder owned a solid 6-2 TD-to-INT ratio in that 4-1 start but he threw eight TDs vs nine INTs in the team’s 2-5 slide. The defense came up big last week, allowing just 14 points, although the Bears did gain 438 yards. However, Ponder had another poor outing, completing 11-of-17 for a pathetic 91 yards with no TDs and one INT. He’s now had QB ratings of 60.0 or less in FIVE of his last seven games (three games in which his ratings were 35.3, 37.3 and 41.9), while failing to reach even 100 yards passing three times (six TDs and eight INTs during the that time frame). Minnesota is being ‘carried’ offensively by Adrian Peterson, as he leads the NFL in rushing (1,600 yards on 6.0 YPC), after topping 100 yards in each of the team’s last seven games (157.3 YPG on 7.2 YPC in that span with eight TDs). Bad news came Minnesota's way in that the Vikings had to place Percy Harvin on IR prior to last Sunday’s game, after he’s missed the last few weeks. Before being sidelined, Harvin was atop the league in receptions (62) and kick return average (35.9 per). Jeff Fisher has done quite a job in St Louis, turning last year’s 2-14 ‘disaster’ into a team without a long-shot’s chance at a playoff berth. Bradford has recovered from an injury-filled second season to throw 15 TDs with a modest 10 INTs (81.9 rating), despite having his favorite (and only real receiving threat) Danny Amendola for six full games (listed as questionable for Sunday). The Rams are playing their best ball of the season, entering with three straight wins. The team’s rush D has been terrific as of late (it will need to be vs AP), as no opposing RB has gained more than 65 yards in four straight games and in last Sunday's comeback win at Buffalo, held the Bills’ sixth-ranked rushing attack to 61 yards, 80 below its season average. The pass rush has 17 sacks the last five games (39 sacks on the season is tied for 2nd-best in the league) and on the season, the pass D has allowed a modest 14 TD passes. Jimmy Johnson, during last Sunday’s FOX’s pre-game show, called Ponder the “worst starting QB in the NFL” and he has a strong case for that statement. Ponder’s QB rating of 78.3 is among the worst of any starting QB and considering he has the ‘protection’ of the league’s most-dominating RB, his lack of success is quite revealing. Ponder is 3-9 away from Minnesota in his career, including 1-5 in 2012. The Vikings have lost their last four road outings at Washington, Seattle, Chicago and Green Bay by an average of 11.2 PPG, with closet margin being eight points. Ponder has that lost, deer-in-the-headlights look and Fisher is one helluva coach. The Rams have beaten the Redskins (7-6), Seattle (8-5) and San Francisco (9-3-1) here at home and are 9-4 ATS in 2012, after a 2-14 season (3-12-1 ATS) last year. make it four straight wins here, driving a ‘stake’ in Minnesota’s playoff hopes.


Good luck...Larry


Prediction: St. Louis Rams


Bet Type: SPREAD

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Goldsheet

★ ★ ★ ★KEY RELEASES ★ ★ ★ ★
CINCINNATI (-3) by 14 over Philadelphia (Thursday, Dec. 13)*WIN*
ST. LOUIS (-3)by 13 over Minnesota
OVER THE TOTAL (44) in the Pittsburgh-Dallas game


★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★

Goldsheet Confidential Kickoff

11 N.Y. GIANTS over *Atlanta
Late Score Forecast:
N.Y. GIANTS 31 - *Atlanta 19

With Washington and Dallas continuing to win in recent weeks, the Giants cannot afford to stumble if they are to
win the NFC East. And the G-Men played like it last week vs. New Orleans, getting a boost from fast rookie RB/
WR David Wilson, who had 100 YR plus igniting the offense with his kick returns. The Falcons have taken full
advantage of an easier schedule that includes the AFC West teams (which Atlanta swept), and its own NFC
South, which the G-Men are in the process of sweeping. N.Y., which has allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL,
is 11-3 vs. the spread last 14 on the road in December while Falcs covered once in the last month. Giants win this
battle of hot QBs.

10 SEATTLE over Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
SEATTLE 28 - Buffalo 13

Hot Seattle catches a break in this one, as the Bills are playing across Lake Ontario in Toronto, where fan support
for the NFL Bills has been slow to develop. Plus, the city’s own CFL Toronto Argonauts won the 100th Grey Cup
just three weeks ago. No surprise if enthusiasm for the 5-8 Bills is lukewarm. Fundamentally, Buffalo has had to
shuffle its OL following C Eric Woods’ torn MCL. The Seahawks’ aggressive defense grabbed eight takeaways
last week, while RB Marshawn Lynch is eager for a shot to “run angry” vs. his former team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE PHONES:

3* TB, Giants, Pitt, Buff

2* KC, NE, Carolina, Chicago

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

4:05PM Carolina Panthers vs San Diego Chargers
[319] (kings ransom- 2 unit play)Carolina Panthers +3.5 -125

1:00PM Minnesota Vikings vs St. Louis Rams
[309] UNDER 39 -110

GOODFELLAS

4:05PM Seattle Seahawks vs Buffalo Bills
[322] (CIGAR GAME- 2 UNIT PLAY)Buffalo Bills +7 -140

1:00PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
[307] Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5 -115

1:00PM New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons
[305] New York Giants +1 +100

4:25PM Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys
[325] Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -120

MARC

4:25PM Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys
[325] (LIGHTS OUT- 2 UNIT PLAY) OVER 44 -110

1:00PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
[307] OVER 54 -110

4:05PM Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
[323] OVER 44 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog,

Game: Jacksonville at Miami (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Jacksonville +8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-11 on the season, so instantly they draw a point or 2 from the books as no one wants to back a loser. Even with extra on the line, bettors are still backing 5-8 Miami laying over a touchdown. Chad Henne came out firing in his first two games as a starter for the Jags, throwing six TD passes to just one INT. The last two weeks vs. Buffalo and the Jets, he failed to complete 50% of his passes, and was limited to less than 5 yards per attempt. The big difference was those two teams have been great over the last month defending the pass, and his top receiver Cecil Shorts was out with a concussion. All indications are that Shorts will be back in the lineup this week, and Miami is just average against the pass. So, I expect a solid performance from Henne. There is also a sleeper factor at work. Chad Henne has revenge in mind for the Dolphins, and would love to stick it to them. Remember that McNabb beat the Eagles, Kolb beat the Eagles, Fitzpatrick beat the Bengals, and Favre beat the Packers - all in their first game against their former team. The other factor that has been interesting is that the Jags defense has stepped things up since the quarterback change. This team allowed 26+ points in eight of their first ten games. But, over the past three games, they are allowing just 23.3 per game. The Dolphins’ offense has come to a screeching halt with just 90 points in their last six games for 15 points per game. That makes it tough to cover a TD spread when you’re getting just two yourself on average, especially when you’re allowing 25 per game over the same period. It is hard to see the Dolphins at 5-8 vs. a 2-11 team invested in this game, and their history certainly verifies that as they are 6-24 ATS in their last 30 at home vs. a losing team. Henne will be invested in this game, so play on Jacksonville.

Game: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Tampa Bay +4 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The New Orleans Saints got off to a disastrous 0-4 start to the season. It looked like it was over and out, but they rallied back to get to 5-5. They looked like a team destined to make a playoffs run, but that all came to a screeching halt over the last three weeks. In three must-win situations, the Saints went winless, losing all three games by double-digits. The reality of the Saints is now obvious - they are a bad team. The line here may look fair, but if the Saints were beaten by 45 points the last three weeks when they were fully invested in the games, how can they possibly have anything left now? The Buccaneers aren't in a much better spot, having also dropped three straight. But, with six wins they still have something to play for. The Bucs have scored 21 points or more for 10 straight games, and suddenly the Saints have not even averaged that over their last three. Tampa Bay has at least as much to offer offensively. Although their defense has not been good, they do get more stops than the Saints who bring up the rear in the NFL, allowing more yards than any other team by over 40 yards per contest. The Bucs have been huge on the road at 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27, which includes 7-2 ATS in their last nine in New Orleans. The Bucs are a better team. Let's not forget that this team was 6-4. They lost three straight but two of those losses came to Atlanta and Denver. There will be a ton of scoring here. Fade the worse defense. The play here is Tampa Bay.

Game: Denver at Baltimore (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Baltimore +135 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.7)
The Denver Broncos have now won eight straight games and have moved to No. 4 in the league on offense and No. 4 on defense. So who can possibly derail the Manning express? Perhaps it might be a team that has a record better than 7-6. The Broncos may be lavishing in the winning streak, but a closer look leaves some question marks. The eight game winning streak is comprised of teams that are a combined 37-67 on the season with only a single winning team in the 7-6 Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos’ other two wins on the season came at the expense of teams that are 13-16, so their 10 wins are to teams that are 47-83, and none better than 7-6. Their three losses were to teams with solid winning records, and at 9-4 Baltimore fits above all the teams they have beaten this season, and they are at home, desperate for a win. The Ravens find a way to get it done at home where they are 34-6 straight-up in their last 40 and they've won 20 of their last 22! The six losses are by a combined 18 points, and the biggest loss is by 4. The Broncos are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 on the road vs. a winning team. Baltimore has won 34 of their last 40 here, and the six losses were near misses. This season, the Ravens are 5-1 at home winning on average 34-22. And, in their last 11 games folowing a loss, the Ravens are 10-1 straight up. In the Harbaugh era, they are 18-5 after a loss. The Ravens have been a home dog just once in the last four years - and for good reason. Take Baltimore on the moneyline.

Game: Green Bay at Chicago (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Chicago +3 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Green Bay Packers have won seven of their last eight games. But, this team has been a far cry from the 15-1 team from a year ago that recorded eight double-digit wins in the regular season. This year’s version has yet to record a single 20+ point blowout. On the road this season, this Packers team is very pedestrian having gone 3-3 and getting outscored in the process. The Bears were the 7-1 team through eight games, but the wheels have come off as they have dropped four of their last five. But outside of the San Francisco debacle, the Bears’ other three losses were all one-possession games. While the Packers have come out in front of their one-possession games, the Bears have not. The Bears have been a lot more efficient at home where they are 5-2. The two losses were not unreasonable: a 7-point loss to a 2-loss team and an overtime loss to Seattle. I don't see anything there that says they are not going to be competitive or win this game. Remember also that the San Francisco and Houston losses were without Jay Cutler. The Bears are holding opponents to jsut 14.6 points per game at home and, under Lovie Smith, this Bears team is 22-11 straight-up at home following a loss including 10-4 at home after back-to-back losses. This is a big revenge spot for Chicago as they were embarrassed by the Packers in week two. I like the Bears plus the points in this one.

Game: New York Giants at Atlanta (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 51 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The much maligned Giants’ defense, and this team in general, are puzzling to many. The Giants can lose to Cincinnati and Philadelphia, fall behind to Tampa Bay and Cleveland, and rally back seemingly at will. They tend to be lackadaisical until it is show time vs. the big teams. They had their first big test at San Francisco in mid October, with the Niners playing to revenge a playoff loss. The Giants came out and dominated the game, allowing the Niners a season-low 3 points and winning by over three touchdowns. Later in the season, the Giants suffered back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and then Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers headed to the Meadowlands and were held to 10 points as the Giants won by 28. So, in this game, expeect an A-effort from the Giants defense. This is a big-game team, and the Falcons at 11-2 and the best record in the NFC are up next. Just like the Niners, the Falcons have major revenge for a punishing 24-2 loss in their first round playoff game a year ago. History has told their story, so I expect the Giants to muscle up on the defensive side and limit the Falcons’ offense. New York has been a great road team for years and this year is no exception. The G-Men have held opponents to just 16.8 points per game on the road this season. The Falcons don't get a lot of credit on the defensive side of the ball, but seven of their last eleven opponents failed to score more than 20 points! The Giants are 11-1 to the UNDER following a win, and just one of their last eight road games has eclipsed the total. These two teams have combined for a 17-9 mark to the UNDER this season. Giants road games this season have averaged just 39.6 points. Falcons home games have averaged 43.2 points. If we average both of those, we get 41.4 points. This total is a whopping 10 points taller than that. Take the UNDER.

Game: Detroit at Arizona (Sunday 12/16 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Arizona +6.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
58-0. That's the score of Arizona's debacle last week. It doesn't get uglier than that. Well that's not true. In the last 25 years in the NFL there has been one worse loss. The Titans lost to the Patriots in October of 2009 59-0. The Titans won and covered their next game. In 20 games in which a team has lost by 44+ points over the past quarter century, the losing team has covered the spread 63% of the time in their next game (12-7-1 ATS). Might the spreads in their next game be a bit inflated? Sure! No one wants to touch a team that lost by this margin last week. That is holding true this week as 85% of the bets on this game are coming in on Detroit. Despite that very heavy lopsided action, the line hasn't moved much from the opening line of 6. That tells you that very heavy money is coming in on the Cardinals here. Yes, the Cardinals were scary bad last week, and they are 4-9 on the season having dropped nine straight games. But, Detroit is a really bad team too, and laying nearly a touchdown on the road. The Lions are getting outscored on the season and things are getting progressively worse. Over their last five games, Detroit is 0-5 straight up and 0-4-1 ATS, getting outscored 128 to 154. This defense has allowed 24+ points in eight of their 13 games. In three of their last five, they have allowed 34 or more points. On the road, the Lions are 2-5. Arizona has their issues for sure, but after an emabarrassment like they suffered last week, I expect them to show up here to atone. This is what professionals do and it's why these huge losers have been great bets historically. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 11-2 ATS at home vs. good offensive teams (those like the Lions that score 24+ points per game). After last week's 58-0 drubbing, this is a counterintuitive play. But it's the right one. Take the Cardinals and the points.

Game: Pittsburgh at Dallas (Sunday 12/16 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 44 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Steelers own the best defense in the league - as rated by yards allowed (262.4). But, they drop all the way to 7th when we look at points allowed (20.3). And, Dallas' defense is ranked in the lower third of the league, allowing 24.2 per game. Pittsburgh's defense is very stout at home, allowing just 16 points per game. That figure climbs by more than a touchdown on the road (24 ppg allowed). Dallas' defense at home gives up 27.3 per game and lately this unit has been getting torched, giving up 33+ points in two of their last three games. The Steelers are coming off an upset loss to the Chargers and winning road teams that are off an upset loss have seen their games go OVER the spread 68% of the time the past six seasons (56-26 OVER). Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 OVER when facing a winning team at home. They are also 10-1 OVER during that span at home vs. good passing teams (teams completing over 60% of their passes). In the Mike Tomlin era in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 21-11 OVER as a road favorite. Take the OVER here.

Game: Kansas City at Oakland (Sunday 12/16 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +3.5 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs did not give themselves a chance to win or cover many games through mid-season. Up until that point, they were -20 in turnovers, and virtually eliminated any possibility of winning, despite out-gaining many of their opponents from the line of scrimmage. Things have changed, and although they have just two wins, this has become a competitive team. The Chiefs have turned the ball over just four times in their last five games, resulting in three ATS wins, more than they had in their first eight games. The Raiders are a different story. This team has either quit, or they are just that bad. In the end, it doesn't matter as either are good fade reasons. They are yielding just shy of 36 points per game in their last six games, and scoring just 14.3 points per game in their last four. That is a three touchdown gap, and one that is likely not going to get fixed anytime soon. To be favored here is a real stretch. In his coaching career, Romeo Crennel is 9-1 ATS on the road following a road loss and 17-4 ATS after allowing 30+ points in his previous game. Play on Kansas City.

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Football Betting Sheet

“Exclusive for VIP Clients” December 16, 2012

Plays based upon a five-point scale. Plays over a 4.0 are strong plays. Plays above 4.5 are mandatory plays.
LAST WEEK RECORD: 4-1
GAME OF THE YEAR: 1-0 (7 STRAIGHT)
SEASON RECORD: 53-36-1

GREEN BAY PACKERS 31 – Chicago Bears 14 (1:00 ET SUN) – Green Bay opened the week at -2 and has risen to -3. The Packers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their L/5 games, while the Bears are 1-4 SU and ATS in their L/5 games. This series has been all about the Packers as well, as they are 4-0 SU and ATS in the L/4 clashes. This one might knock the Bears out of the playoffs, and Green Bay would love to do nothing more in the world than just that to its arch rivals.
GREEN BAY -3 Rating: 4.7/5

Miami Dolphins 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20 (1:00 ET SUN) – The 'over' opened at 37.5 and has held firm all week long. QB Chad Henne is going to be back in South Beach and will want to prove that he is worthy to his former team. Dolphins games have averaged 39.7 PPG this year in scoring, and only one game has fallen short of 37.5 since the team's bye week (19-14 loss @ Buffalo). Jacksonville games are averaging 44.2 PPG as well.
OVER 37.5 Rating 4.2/5

DENVER BRONCOS 27 – Baltimore Ravens 17 (1:00 ET SUN) – The line opened at Denver -2.5 and has risen to Denver -3. This is a crucial game for seeding in the AFC playoffs. Baltimore also hasn't clinched a playoff spot yet. The Ravens should be without LB Terrell Suggs, LB Ray Lewis, and DB Jimmy Smith in this one, and that's bad news against a Denver offense that has averaged 390.2 YPG and 28.8 PPG. Baltimore is 0-2 SU and ATS in its L/2 and hasn't won a game by more than three points in four weeks.
DENVER -3 Rating: 4.4/5

Detroit Lions 27 – ARIZONA CARDINALS 24 (4:05 ET SUN) – The spread opened Detroit -6 and has jumped to -6.5 at some sportsbooks. The Lions are garnering over 70% of the betting action, but the line is doing little moving. Both of these teams rank poorly in the standings at just 4-9. Detroit is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in its L/5. Arizona hasn't scored a touchdown in 10 ½ quarters, but the Lions have allowed at least 24 points in five straight games. Get your mind off of the 58-0 loss last week. Arizona will bounce back and at least keep this one close.
ARIZONA +6.5 Rating: 4.7/5

NEW YORK JETS 20 – Tennessee Titans 14 (8:30 ET MON) – The line opened at New York +1.5 and has held firm all week long. The Jets are just a game back of the playoffs, while the Titans just keep finding ways to lose games and have gone just 1-5 SU and ATS over the course of the L/6 games. The Jets are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS since the middle of November. More importantly though, New York is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in this series dating back to 1996.
NEW YORK +1.5 Rating: 4.5/5

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Killer Sports Newsletter

Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser POW
4-Star Minnesota +9, New England Pick

Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser POW
4.5-Star Packers+7, Buccanners+13.5, Steelers+8

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Stephen Nover

Game of the Year

Pittsburgh ML

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