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Dr. Ed Meyer | NFL Total Sun, 12/23/12 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 117 WAS / 118 PHI OVER 45.0 5dimes
Analysis:
No matter how good or bad the Eagles are, they have one OU trend that has persisted. Philadelphia is now 18-0 OU after a game in which they scored fewer than 23 points as an underdog. The SDQL text is:
p:points<23 and p:D and team=Eagles and 20051201<=date
This trend was published in the 2012 KillerSports NFL Handicapping Bible and it has gone 4-0 OU this season. In the last active date, the Cowboys beat the Eagles 38-33 with the OU line at 45.
Also, the Eagles have played very aggressively at home vs a “better” team. Specifically, they are 10-0 OU when they are not off their by‚e and facing a team with more wins. Also, they are 8-0 OU (9.6 ppg) when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak. The SDQL is:
team=Eagles and o:streak>=3 and 20091115<=date
The Eagles certainly had a poor offensive showing Thursday-week vs the Bengals. However, the Eagles have not played passively in this spot. They are 8-0 OU (+10.1 ppg) as a dog the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays.
The Redskins are on a roll -- and it doesn’t seem to matter who their QB is. Washington #8 from LAST SEASON’s Annual states that: “WAS008: The Redskins are 8-0 OU (+11.5 ppg) since 1991 as a road favorite the week after scoring 30+ points.” They are 2-0 OU since its publication, moving them to 10-0 in their spot.
Also, the Redskins qualify for a system that has been perfect for 13 seasons. NFL teams are a combined 13-0 OU during the regular season after week 12 on the road after a road win in which they were trailing at the half, as long as they are not getting two TDs or more. The SDQL is:
week>12 and A and p:AW and 0<p:line and p:M2<0 and REG and line<14 and 19991225<=date
Note that the average OU margin is plus 15.4 ppg and the last active date was a 35-32 game with the OU line at 38. Take these two OVER.
MTi’s FORECAST: Washington 31 PHILADELPHIA 27
Sebass Report for Sunday:
100 Teaser UNDER Cincinnati and Cleveland
100 Indianapolis
100 UNDER San Francisco
100 New York Giants
100 Philadelphia
200 New Orleans
200 Oakland
100 Phoenix Suns
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