12-24-12

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Northcoast

Hawaii Bowl (Monday night)
Top Opinions
SMU +12
Over 58.5

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Allen Eastman
Take #213 SMU (+12.5) over Fresno State (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 24) – HAWAII BOWL


Take #215 Central Michigan (+5.5) over Western Kentucky (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 26) – LITTLE CEASAR’S BOWL

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Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

Stats as of Sunday, Dec. 23.

Hottest ATS team

Miami Heat (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS last week)

The Heat are hitting their stride with a huge Christmas Day matchup looming. Miami rolled over Minnesota, Dallas and Utah last week, winning those games by an average margin of 14 points – music to the bettor’s ears. Those blowouts are just what you need when dealing with the Heat’s inflated lines on a nightly basis. Miami is getting the job done with defense, holding all three of those opponents and its last seven under the 100-point plateau.

Coldest ATS team

San Antonio Spurs (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS last week)

Suddenly the NBA’s golden goose is losing its glitter. The Spurs have been cash cows for most of 2012 but hit an ATS skid this week, failing to cover at Oklahoma City, at Denver and home to New Orleans. However, things will likely turn around this coming week. Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Jackson are both back from injuries, providing the aging starters with some relief off the bench. San Antonio hosts Dallas Sunday before a short break and a home game with Toronto on Dec. 26.

Best over team

Boston Celtics (1-2 SU, 3-0 over/under)

The Celtics’ late-game defense has allowed scores to creep into over range. Boston let up versus Milwaukee Friday and watched an 8-point fourth-quarter lead transform into an overtime loss. The Celtics have actually been one of the better over plays at home this season, posting a 9-4-1 over/under count in the Garden. However, they hit the road for four straight games starting with a Christmas Day trip to Brooklyn. The Nets and Celtics have played under the total in seven of their last nine meetings.

Best under team

Los Angeles Clippers (3-0 SU, 0-3 over/under)

The Clippers may get some serious face time during the Plays of the Night, but L.A.’s "other team" has built a solid start to the season on the back of its defense. Los Angeles is locking down foes for just 92.2 points per game and took advantage of some less-than-powerful scoring attacks this past week. In wins over Detroit, New Orleans and Sacramento, the Clippers gave up an average of just over 79 points. Los Angeles takes on Phoenix Sunday and has a Christmas Day date with Denver at home.

Scouting the schedule

- Toronto better enjoy its extended holiday break because it’s back to business after Xmas. The Raptors hit the road for three road games in four nights, starting in San Antonio Wednesday. They then go to New Orleans Friday and Orlando Saturday. Toronto has been a solid wager north of the border (8-4 ATS at home) but is just 6-10 ATS away from the Air Canada Centre.

- Miami doesn’t get much time to put its feet up during the holidays. The Heat play four games in five nights, beginning with a finals rematch against Oklahoma City on Christmas Day. The defending champs hit the road for three straight games after that – at Charlotte Wednesday, at Detroit Friday, and at Milwaukee Saturday. They cap that four-game swing in Orlando on New Year’s Eve.

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DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 17 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 3-1 (.750)
ATS: 1-3 (.250)
ATS Vary Units: 3-17 (.150)
Over/Under: 2-2 (.500)
Over/Under Vary Units: 9-6 (.600)

Season
Straight Up: 1046-345 (.752)
ATS: 417-394 (.514)
ATS Vary Units: 2445-2295 (.516)
Over/Under: 375-360 (.510)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1237-883 (.583)

Monday, December 24, 2012
Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
Fresno State 40, Smu 26

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Big al
4* SMU +12

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ATS Consultants
3* smu

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Xpertpicks

• Play Fresno State -13 over SMU (TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---40% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

Fresno State has covered the spread in 11 of the last 12 games and
they have also covered the spread in 9 consecutive games when playing
as a favorite. Fresno State has covered the spread in 6 consecutive
games when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points and they are
averaging over 40 points a game on offense this season.

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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. SMU Mustangs (+12, 59.5)

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. The lone Christmas Eve bowl game figures to be gift-wrapped with plenty of offense. Southern Methodist will try to keep pace with Fresno State, which is ranked 14th nationally in total offense at 488.5 yards per game while averaging 40.2 points. The Mustangs average 29.5 points and scored a school-record 72 against Houston in October.

2. SMU coach June Jones is familiar with the islands after coaching Hawaii for nine seasons. The Mustangs, who are making their school-record fourth consecutive bowl appearance, won the 2009 Hawaii Bowl 45-10 against Nevada. The Bulldogs are making their 12th bowl appearance in the last 14 seasons, and are coming off their first conference championship since 1999.

3. Both teams enter the contest riding a wave of momentum after finishing the regular season on a high note. Fresno State has won five straight games, including a 48-15 victory over Air Force on Nov. 24. SMU went 2-2 down the stretch, but the Mustangs beat Tulsa 35-27 in their season finale to hand the Golden Hurricane their first conference loss. Fresno State lost to Tulsa 27-26 on Sept. 22.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Fresno State opened at -11.5 and has since climbed to -12. The total opened at 59.5 and has remained steady.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 51 percent chance of rain later in the game with temperatures in the high 60s. Winds are expected to blow ENE at 7 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. MWC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs' last four Bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Mustangs' last seven games overall.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (9-3, 7-1 Mountain West, 11-1 ATS): Led by first-year coach Tim DeRuyter, the Bulldogs shared the conference championship with Boise State and San Diego State. Junior quarterback Derek Carr was named Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year after throwing for a career-high 3,742 yards with 36 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Freshman wide receiver Davante Adams led the conference in receptions (89), receiving yards (1,168) and touchdown catches (13), while senior Robbie Rouse rushed for 1,468 yards and 12 touchdowns. Senior defensive back Philip Thomas leads the Bulldogs’ defense, which ranked 19th in the nation while allowing an average of 335.3 yards. Thomas was named the Mountain West’s top defensive player after recording a career-high 82 tackles and eight interceptions. After recording only nine takeaways last year, Fresno State tied for third nationally with SMU and Boise State with 33 turnovers gained this season.

ABOUT SMU (6-6, 5-3 Conference USA, 7-5 ATS): The Mustangs needed their victory over Tulsa to become bowl eligible after losing 36-14 at Rice on Nov. 17. The offense is led by senior Zach Line, who was named C-USA Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1,207 yards and 12 touchdowns. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert is a dual threat who had 14 passing touchdowns and seven rushing. Gilbert has a 14-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but has thrown 126 passes without an interception. The defense is led by defensive end Margus Hunt and linebacker Ja'Gared Davis, who forced three turnovers against Tulsa. The Mustangs are vulnerable in the secondary, where they've lost two starters to injuries. Over the past two-plus seasons, SMU is 14-0 when scoring first, but 0-14 when the opponent scores first.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CFB SMU at FRESNO ST.

Play On - Any team (FRESNO ST) an excellent offensive team (>=34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half.
113-61 over the last 10 seasons. ( 64.9% 45.9 units )
11-9 this year. ( 55.0% 1.1 units )

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Blue Ribbon 12/24

213 Southern Methodist +12

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Monday, December 31st - Free Member Play

TOP (3 UNITS)
SMU +12 vs fresno state (5pm)

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Powersweep

4★: SMU (+) over Fresno St.

Pointwise

Bowl Releases

6* FRESNO ST 44 - SMU 27

CKO

Priority Sports Picks

10* #214 Fresno St.

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Intpicks 12/24
3--Fresno St vs SMU OVER 59.5

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Mark Lawrence Playbook (Midweek Alert)

SMU over Fresno State by 1

tip of the hat to the great job done by both coaches this season.
Fresno State’s Tim DeRuyter turned a 4-win Bulldogs squad
into a 9-win ATM machine in his fi rst season, going 10-1 ATS in
the process. Meanwhile, June Jones did some of the best coaching of
his career when he turned a 2-4 squad into a bowler by season’s end.
While it’s dangerous jumping in front of a moneymaking machine, our
database gives us permission in this game as it notes that bowlers
riding a 5-0 SUATS streak are just 14-19 SU and 13-20 ATS since 1980.
The mean machine also points out the fact that fi rst-year coaches
struggle as favorites in bowl games, now 13-27-1 ATS since 1990 –
including a jaw-dropping 0-3 SUATS when laying double-digits! When
it comes to bowl trending, these former Western Athletic Conferencemates
own wildly disparate numbers as the dog in SMU bowl games
is 7-0 SUATS while the favorite in Fresno State postseason tilts is 2-9
SU and 1-10 ATS. The Ponies’ attack is led by CUSA Offensive Player
of the Year RB Zach Line, 2nd all-time rusher to Eric Dickerson in SMU
history. Line will look to puncture the Bulldogs’ Achilles heel, namely
a rush defense that allowed its six fellow bowl teams an average
222 yards on the ground. In closing, this year’s Mustangs bring the
same traits the 2009 SMU team did when June Jones’ squad closed
4-1 and went on to win the Hawaii Bowl, 45-10, as 11-point dogs
over highly-touted Nevada. Coupled with Jones’ familiarity and past
successes at Aloha Stadium as Hawaii’s head man (16-1 SU last 17
games, 4-0 SUATS last four Aloha Bowl games), it’s June in December
in Hawaii all over again.