12-25-12

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Cappers Access

Nets -3-
Bulls -4-

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Teddy Covers 12/25 Christmas Day -
10* Nuggets

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From Platinum Plays.

500K Xmas Day Parlay

the Brookly Nets -3½ over
the Boston Celtics

the New York Knicks +3½ over
the LA Lakers

Best Bets


Chicago Bulls -4½ over
the Houston Rockets

the LA Clippers -7 over
the Denver Nugget

the Arizona Wildcats -5½ over
the San Diego St Aztecs




PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK

the Oklahoma City Thunder +2½ over
the Miami Heat

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Totals 4 You Regular Service Selections for Tuesday, December 25th

2012 Christmas Day NBA on ABC Super Totals Parlay!!!!!
New York/LA Lakers under 213 1/2
Oklahoma City/Miami over 204 1/2

NBA Best Bets
Boston/Brooklyn over 186
Houston/Chicago under 197 1/2
Denver/LA Clippers under 201 1/2

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Bank Shots: NBA Betting News & Notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

Hottest ATS TEAM

Miami Heat (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS last week)

The Heat are hitting their stride with a huge Christmas Day matchup looming. Miami rolled over Minnesota, Dallas and Utah last week, winning those games by an average margin of 14 points – music to the bettor’s ears. Those blowouts are just what you need when dealing with the Heat’s inflated lines on a nightly basis. Miami is getting the job done with defense, holding all three of those opponents and its last seven under the 100-point plateau.

Coldest ATS TEAM

San Antonio Spurs (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS last week)

Suddenly the NBA’s golden goose is losing its glitter. The Spurs have been cash cows for most of 2012 but hit an ATS skid this week, failing to cover at Oklahoma City, at Denver and home to New Orleans. However, things will likely turn around this coming week. Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Jackson are both back from injuries, providing the aging starters with some relief off the bench. San Antonio hosts Dallas Sunday before a short break and a home game with Toronto on Dec. 26.

Best OVER TEAM

Boston Celtics (1-2 SU, 3-0 over/under)

The Celtics’ late-game defense has allowed scores to creep into over range. Boston let up versus Milwaukee Friday and watched an 8-point fourth-quarter lead transform into an overtime loss. The Celtics have actually been one of the better over plays at home this season, posting a 9-4-1 over/under count in the Garden. However, they hit the road for four straight games starting with a Christmas Day trip to Brooklyn. The Nets and Celtics have played under the total in seven of their last nine meetings.

Best UNDER TEAM

Los Angeles Clippers (3-0 SU, 0-3 over/under)

The Clippers may get some serious face time during the Plays of the Night, but L.A.’s "other team" has built a solid start to the season on the back of its defense. Los Angeles is locking down foes for just 92.2 points per game and took advantage of some less-than-powerful scoring attacks this past week. In wins over Detroit, New Orleans and Sacramento, the Clippers gave up an average of just over 79 points. Los Angeles takes on Phoenix Sunday and has a Christmas Day date with Denver at home.

Scouting the Schedule

- Toronto better enjoy its extended holiday break because it’s back to business after Xmas. The Raptors hit the road for three road games in four nights, starting in San Antonio Wednesday. They then go to New Orleans Friday and Orlando Saturday. Toronto has been a solid wager north of the border (8-4 ATS at home) but is just 6-10 ATS away from the Air Canada Centre.

- Miami doesn’t get much time to put its feet up during the holidays. The Heat play four games in five nights, beginning with a finals rematch against Oklahoma City on Christmas Day. The defending champs hit the road for three straight games after that – at Charlotte Wednesday, at Detroit Friday, and at Milwaukee Saturday. They cap that four-game swing in Orlando on New Year’s Eve.

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NBA Christmas Day Head-to-Head Team Betting Trends

If you're home for the holidays then you're likely betting on the five NBA games on Christmas Day. Here's a look at some head-to-head betting trends for the 10 teams involved in the league's showcase schedule:

Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets

* Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Celtics are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Celtics are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Brooklyn.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers

* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Thunder are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Thunder are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami.

Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
* Rockets are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in Chicago.
* Over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.
* Road team is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers

* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles.
* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

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J.R Stevens / SMOOTH44

TOP PICKS

NBA
LA Lakers vs. New York
(PICK: LA-LAKERS-3)

Miami vs. Oklahoma City
(PICK: OKLAHOMA CITY+3)

Chicago vs. Houston
(PICK: HOUSTON+4)

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NBA Finalists Clash Tuesday when OKC visits Miami

Tip-off: Tuesday, 5:30 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -3, Total: 204.5

Miami will host the Oklahoma City on Christmas Day in a rematch of last year's NBA Finals.

The Heat and Thunder have both gotten off to great starts in this NBA season, but now they face off against each other. Last year, the Heat beat the Thunder in the Finals and they did so while dropping Game 1, but winning four straight to end it in Game 5. Thunder sixth man Kevin Martin will play in this game after missing the Thunder’s loss to the Timberwolves with a quadriceps injury.

Oklahoma City is now 21-5 to start the 2012-2013 season. SF Kevin Durant has stepped up his game in the increased role he was given when the Thunder traded James Harden right before the season began. Over the past five games, Durant is averaging 31.8 PPG, 3.8 APG and 8.0 RPG. Durant also turned in a 41-point performance against Atlanta on Dec. 19. He has been unstoppable, and a lot of that has to do with great point guard play from Russell Westbrook (8.8 APG), who is averaging 10.2 APG over the past five games. These numbers are way up from Westbrook’s career average of 6.9 APG. SG Kevin Martin has been very good for the Thunder as he is a deadly catch-and-shoot player, tied for sixth in the NBA at 46% 3-pt FG.

Many people have panicked about the start to the season for the Heat, but the reality is that they’re 18-6 and the top seed in the Eastern Conference early on. SF LeBron James is playing like an MVP yet again for Miami, averaging 25.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 6.8 APG. James is shooting an incredibly efficient 54.2% from the field, and by far a career high of 44.2% from three. PF Chris Bosh has been the Heat’s second option all season and he has performed well, averaging 18.0 PPG and 7.9 RPG to go along with 1.3 BPG on the season. SG Dwyane Wade has also come on strong for Miami lately, averaging 18.2 PPG, 5.6 APG and 4.4 RPG in only 28.4 MPG over the past five games.

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Knicks travel to L.A. on Christmas Day

Tip-off: Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -3, Total: 212.5

The Knicks will get their second chance to beat their former coach, Mike D’Antoni, when they face the Lakers at Staples Center on Christmas Day.

New York is 7-3 in its past 10 games, while the Lakers are on a four-game winning streak. The last time these two teams played, the Knicks won 116-107 in a game that wasn’t close from the opening tip.

The Knicks have won seven of their past 10 games, but have lost two of their past five contests. Some of New York's shooters have been struggling lately, but SF Carmelo Anthony has picked up the slack. The early season MVP candidate is averaging 31.0 PPG on 44.4% shooting from the field in the three games he’s played since spraining his ankle. Anthony is averaging 1.0 BPG and 2.0 SPG as well in those three games. SG J.R Smith has also been playing some of his best basketball of the season, averaging 19.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 3.2 APG over the past five games. He has been a huge spark off the bench for the Knicks and has really made up for the poor shooting of his teammates. PG Jason Kidd must find his shot again as he is just 4-of-16 from three-point land in his past three games.

The Lakers have won four straight games and recently got PG Steve Nash and PF Pau Gasol back from injury. Mike D’Antoni and SG Kobe Bryant were raving about Nash after the Lakers’ 118-115 victory over the Golden State Warriors. Kobe Bryant has been stellar this season and over the past five games has averaged 31.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 6.2 APG. Despite his 16-of-41 shooting performance from the field against the Warriors and his 9-for-29 FG against the Wizards, Kobe is still connecting on 42% FG over the past five games. Bryant is as tough of a cover as there is in this league and although this team has struggled, Kobe has competed and produced in nearly every game.

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Celtics, Nets tip off Christmas Day action at Noon ET

Tip-off: Tuesday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Brooklyn -4.5, Total: 189

Boston will visit Brooklyn at the Barclays Center in this year's opening game on Christmas Day.

The Celtics have been struggling lately. They’ve lost four of their past five games with their one win coming against the lowly Cavaliers. The Nets haven’t been much better, but they have won two of their past five games. The matchup to watch in this one is the battle of the point guards. Deron Williams and Rajon Rondo will both need to set the tone for their teams early on Christmas Day.

The Celtics have lost four of their past five games and are now only a .500 basketball team. Over the past five games, PG Rajon Rondo has not been taking care of the basketball. He is averaging only 9.8 APG compared to his season average of 12.2 APG and has turned the ball over 4.6 times per game in that span. The Celtics are also going to need more out of PF Kevin Garnett. Garnett has averaged a mere 6.4 RPG in the past five games, and as the leading rebounder for Boston, he’ll need to improve in that area.

The Nets have gone through struggles of their own after a hot start to the season. After losing three of their past five games, they need to get things back on track. PG Deron Williams is starting to find his stroke as he is shooting 44.6% from the field over the past five games compared to 39.7% from the field on the season. SG Joe Johnson is also starting to come into his own as he’s turned in three performances with 20 or more points in Brooklyn’s past five games. The season turned when C Brook Lopez went down with an injury, so perhaps this team is now getting acclimated to his return to the lineup.

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Today's NBA Picks

New York at LA Lakers

The Lakers look to take advantage of a New York team that is coming off a 94-91 win over Minnesota and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU victory. LA is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 25 Time Posted: 3:30 p.m. EST (12/24)

Game 501-502: Boston at Brooklyn (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 115.334; Brooklyn 120.810 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 192 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 3 1/2; 187 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-3 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: New York at LA Lakers (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 117.854; LA Lakers 123.421 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 209 Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3 1/2; 214 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-3 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Oklahoma City at Miami (5:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 124.891; Miami 130.093 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 3; 204 Dunkel Pick Miami (-3); Under

Game 507-508: Houston at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.663; Chicago 124.539 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 8; 200 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 197 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4); Over

Game 509-510: Denver at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.841; LA Clippers 131.387 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10 1/2; 197 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7; 201 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-7); Under

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Mississippi at Hawaii

The Warriors look to follow up their 84-61 win over East Tennessee State and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU victory of more than 20 points. Hawaii is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rebels favored by only 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+8 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 25 Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (12/24)

Game 511-512: San Francisco vs. East Tennessee State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 55.804; East Tennessee State 42.803 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 13 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-11 1/2)

Game 513-514: Mississippi at Hawaii (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 64.596; Hawaii 58.293 Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Mississippi by 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+8 1/2)

Game 515-516: Indiana State vs. Miami (FL) (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 59.674; Miami (FL) 65.117 Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 7 Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+7)

Game 517-518: San Diego State vs. Arizona (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 65.445; Arizona 72.502 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 7 Vegas Line: Arizona by 5 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-5)

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/25/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 266-125 (.680)
ATS: 198-199 (.499)
ATS Vary Units: 646-575 (.529)
Over/Under: 206-190 (.520)
Over/Under Vary Units: 363-307 (.542)

BROOKLYN 93, Boston 92
L.A. LAKERS 102, New York 101
MIAMI 102, Oklahoma City 99
CHICAGO 100, Houston 94
L.A. CLIPPERS 105, Denver 97

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/25/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1371-401 (.774)
ATS: 541-563 (.490)
ATS Vary Units: 1956-2142 (.477)
Over/Under: 158-147 (.518)
Over/Under Vary Units: 203-223 (.477)

Diamond Head Classic
at Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu, HI
San Francisco 73, East Tennessee State 64
Ole Miss 81, HAWAI'I 73
Miami (Fla.) 70, Indiana State 60

Championship
Arizona 68, San Diego State 62