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LOUISVILLE (11-1) -8 over Kentucky (8-3) Prediction: Louisville by 15-16 Played at KFC Yum Center (22,090) in Louisville Starting Time: 4:05 TV: CBS
Comments: There is not one single edge 3rd-ranked Louisville does not have in this game and my figures say the Cardinals should win in blowout fashion. Other than putting five players on the floor, these teams have little in common. Louisville has what may be its best team ever, and that is saying something, since the Cardinals have won two national championships, and today they will be 100% healthy for the first time in several weeks as 6-11 junior center Gorgui Dieng returns from the injury list. Dieng averages 8.2 points and 8.0 rebounds per game and is an intimidating defensive giant who last season set a school record for blocked shots with 128. He is the final piece of the puzzle. Louisville’s only loss this season came on a neutral floor in the Bahamas to top-ranked Duke, 76-71, while its signature wins have come over Northern Iowa, nationally-ranked Missouri (both of those wins on that same neutral floor), Illinois State and at Memphis. Kentucky, the defending national champion, speaks loudly with its record. It has played four legitimate basketball teams this season—beating Maryland on a neutral floor, 72-69, in Brooklyn while losing on a neutral floor to Duke, 75-68, in Atlanta, at Notre Dame, 64-50, and at home to Baylor, 64-55. Maryland aside, the Wildcats wins have all come in Lexington against Northwood, Transylvania, Lafayette, Morehead State, LIU-Brooklyn, Samford, Portland, Lipscomb and Marshall. These teams met in the Final Four last season and this Louisville team is dramatically superior to the one that lost to Kentucky in that game while the Wildcats are nothing close to what they were. When one factors into the equation just three things—Louisville’s big talent edge, the intensity of this rivalry and the home court advantage—Louisville should bury Kentucky.
College Basketball
10 Units
Western Ky (-4) over North Texas
8:00 PM -- E.A. Diddle Arena
WESTERN KENTUCKY (9-5) -4 over North Texas (5-7) Prediction: Western Kentucky by 15-16 Played at E.A. Diddle Arena (7,236) in Bowling Green, Kentucky Starting Time: 8:05 TV: ESPN Full Court, ESPN3, Hilltopper Sports Satellite Network
Comments: I won a 50-unit play three nights ago with Western Kentucky and its win over Florida International and am coming right back with the Hilltoppers to get it done again today. There is no question in my mind Western Kentucky is the superior team in this game and that the very soft -4 is based on the fact these two teams have been the dominate teams in the Sun Belt Conference. A more realistic number would have the Hilltoppers favored by at least 8-9. Western Kentucky has won 112 straight at home, is talented, is playing its best right now and is facing a North Texas team that is in the midst of a major rebuilding campaign and that has struggled all season. The Mean Green come into this game off a 90-75 home loss to Lehigh and it is significant that their wins this season have come against five cupcake teams—Southeastern Louisiana, Jackson State, IUPUI, Cameron and Lamar. A loss to Alabama-Huntsville shows just how far down North Texas has dropped this season. The best team on the floor today is Western Kentucky and they Hilltoppers should rock ‘n roll.
College Basketball
10 Units
CalSanta Barbara (+8) over Fullerton State
10:00 PM -- Titan Gym
Cal-Santa Barbara (4-7) +8 over CAL STATE-FULLERTON (6-5) Prediction: Cal State-Fullerton by 2-3 Played at Titan Gymnasium (4,000) in Fullerton, California Starting Time: 10:05 TV: ESPNU
Comments: Sometimes betting lines just don’t make sense and that is the case with this game. There is no dispute Cal State-Fullerton should be the favorite but by nothing close to the -8, especially since this is the opening game of the Big West Conference season for both teams. The NCAA RPI ratings say Cal-Santa Barbara has to this point of the season played the toughest basketball schedule in the country. With all due respect to Fullerton, the Titans have beaten the weak teams on their schedule—Hope College, Texas Southern, Idaho State, Cal-Santa Cruz, Wisconsin-Green Bay and San Diego Christian—and lost to the rest, including such talent-challenged teams as Eastern Washington and Cal State-Bakersfield. Cal-Santa Barbara has talent and might just win this one straight up.
Rather than step-out with any bigger play we are just going to flat wager all of these today based off our numbers. Let's have a good day.
3-Unit Play. #537. Take William and Mary +11.5 over Purdue (Saturday @ 2pm est).
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