1-3-13

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Fiesta Bowl: What bettors need to know

Oregon Ducks vs. Kansas State Wildcats (+8, 75.5)

WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, January 3, 2013
WHERE: University of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, Arizona

FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES

1. Oregon and Kansas State could have been meeting in the BCS title game if not for both teams losing on Nov. 17. Instead, they form perhaps the top non-championship game pairing of the bowl season. The No. 3 Ducks had their title hopes derailed by Stanford while the No. 6 Wildcats were routed by Baylor.

2. Offensive theatrics should be plentiful with both teams having powerful attacks. Oregon ranks second in scoring at 50.8 points and fourth in total offense at 550.1 yards while featuring star runner Kenjon Barner (1,624 rushing yards). Kansas State averages 40.7 points and 411.2 yards with quarterback Collin Klein – third in Heisman Trophy balloting – leading the way.

3. Big plays on defense often tip the scales during the bowl season and both teams are among the best in the nation in takeaways. Oregon leads the nation with 39 and Kansas State has forced 31 turnovers. The Ducks have returned four interceptions for touchdown. The Wildcats have only committed 10 miscues in 12 games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Oregon opened at -8 and was bet up as high as -9.5 but money on KSU dropped the spread back to -8. The total moved from 77 to 75.5.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Oregon while 68 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 5-2 in Ducks' last seven bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Wildcats' last seven non-conference games.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (11-1, 8-1 Big 12, 7-5 ATS): The Wildcats have lost four consecutive bowl games dating back to the 2002 Holiday Bowl during coach Bill Snyder’s first stint at the school. Klein is a multipurpose threat with 2,490 yards and 15 passing touchdowns to go with 890 yards and 22 scores on the ground. Junior John Hubert has rushed for 15 touchdowns to go with a team-leading 892 rushing yards, while senior wideout Chris Harper has a team-best 50 receptions for 786 yards. Harper began his career as a quarterback at Oregon before transferring. Kansas State allows only 99.3 rushing yards per game and boasts big-time talent in senior middle linebacker Arthur Brown – the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year – junior free safety Ty Zimmerman (five interceptions) and senior defensive end Meshak Williams (8.5 sacks). Senior cornerback Allen Chapman and senior cornerback Nigel Malone also have five interceptions apiece.

ABOUT OREGON (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12, 9-2-1 ATS): The Ducks could be playing their final game under coach Chip Kelly as rumors swirl that he is headed to the NFL. Redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrived under Kelly’s progressive system, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 2,511 yards and 30 touchdowns. Sophomore running back De’Anthony Thomas had 16 total touchdowns, including 11 on the ground while complementing Barner. Senior defensive end Dion Jordan is the leader of the defense with 10.5 tackles for losses. Junior defensive end Taylor Hart has a team-best eight sacks while sophomore cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu has blossomed as a huge playmaker. Ekpre-Olomu is tied for the team lead with sophomore middle linebacker Kiko Alonso for most interceptions (four) and also has forced six fumbles.

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Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today

FIESTA

(Thursday at Glendale, Ariz.)

Kansas St. +8 vs. Oregon: There are enough off the field distractions to keep me off Oregon. Besides, they were counting on the national title game. Kansas State was as well, but Collin Klein has more to gain from this matchup than the Nike-supported Ducks. And I like ageless Bill Snyder much more than a coach who appears ready to jump ship before potential NCAA violations are announced. K-STATE.

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Richard Saber @ Gaming Today

THURSDAY

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz.

Kansas St. +8½ vs. Oregon (77): Both teams can light up the tote. The Ducks scored over 50 in 7 out of their 12 games and over 40 in the others with the exception of their lone loss against Stanford. So who did the Ducks score all those points against – nobody of any interest with the exception of USC. And, the Trojans really weren’t that good.

The Wildcats from Manhattan lost their only game to Baylor in Waco. They beat Oklahoma who is in the Cotton Bowl, Texas Tech who was in the Meinke Car Care Bowl, TCU who was in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl and Oklahoma State who is in the Heart Of Texas Bowl. This should be wild and wooly to say the least. The last team with the ball may be the straight up winner. The points are a must-take here. K-STATE.

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Wunderdog Sports

Game: Kansas State vs. Oregon (Thursday 1/03 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Kansas State +8.5 (-110)

The Oregon Ducks have an offense geared to play at warp speed, and they will put it to work against the Kansas State Wildcats. The Ducks averaged 50.8 points per game, and have put up gaudy offensive numbers for the last three years with this group of seniors. The one thing they haven't done very well is translate the high-powered offense into their Bowl game when they face stiff competition that has had a month to prepare. The Ducks’ last three Bowl games have seen the high-powered offense reduced to ordinary as they have averaged a pedestrian 28.7 points per game. K-State will be ready. The Wildcats are all about Collin Klein. He was injured late in the season and the Wildcats offense suffered, scoring 23 and 24 points in consecutive games while he was not at 100%. Klein has passed for 15 TDs and rushed for 22 more, and his ability to run has made the Wildcats difficult to handle in the red-zone. Kansas State’s ability to run will also help limit possessions in this game, and their offense isn't far behind the Ducks at 40.8 ppg. While everyone loves the "sexy” offense, teams that play in a Bowl game that average 48 or more points a game are just 4-8 ATS. The Wildcats have been a good spread team at 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26. They are also 9-2 ATS the past two seasons as a dog and 17-8 ATS in the Bill Synder era when getting points. Take the points and go with Kansas State.

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Where the action is: Sharps vs. Public in Fiesta Bowl betting

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks (-8, 75.5)

Two of the most explosive offensive programs in the country meet in the Fiesta Bowl, with oddsmakers opening the Oregon Ducks as 8-point favorites for this Jan. 3 BCS bowl game.

Early money came in on the Ducks, moving the spread as high as -9.5 at some online markets. However, sharp money pounced on the discount KSU line and brought the spread back to its original post. According to oddsmakers at BetDSI.com, the Fiesta Bowl is battle between public and wiseguy money.

“There is a public-versus-sharp betting contrast here with sharp action backing K-State at the +9 spread and the public all over Oregon at any value,” BetDSI.com told Covers. “The current bet count is 2-to-1 in favor of Oregon, but the money has decent balance since the spread settled in around Oregon -8.”

The total for Thursday’s game is one of the largest numbers this bowl season. The over/under opened as high as 77 but has since dropped to as low as 75 online. Las Vegas books are dealing between 76 and 75.5 points.

Four bowls have closed with totals of 70 or more points this postseason, splitting the over/under at 2-2. Oregon and Kansas State posted twin 7-4 over/under records this season.

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CBB

-- Six of last eight Green Bay-Wright State games were won by 5 or less points; GB won both meetings LY, by 1-5 points- neither team scored 58 points in either game. Phoenix lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 4-1-13-3 points. Green Bay is 0-5 on road this year. Wright St is 1-3 vs teams in top 200, with only win by 10 over #172 Idaho.
-- Home team won seven of last ten Northeastern-George Mason games; Huskies lost five of last six visits here, losing by 25-11-28-11-6 points. Mason is 5-0 vs teams not in top 100, winning by 3-16-3-3-3- they lost three of last five games overall. Northeastern lost six of last seven tilts; their opponents are shooting 53.9% inside the arc.
-- Northwestern is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 20-9-2 points; they are without best player Crawford now- they shoot 38.4% behind arc. Michigan won last three games vs Northwestern, winning both times in OT LY; three of their last four wins over Wildcats came in overtime. Wolverines split last four visits here, winning by 3-12, both in OT.
-- Colorado upset Arizona twice in three meetings in its first season in Pac-12, with two wins by total of three points; they lost 71-57 in visit to Tucson. Buffs are 1-2 on road this year, losing by 35 at Kansas, by 7 at 13-0 Wyoming. 12-0 Arizona hasn't played in nine days since Hawai'i tourney, when they beat San Diego State by a point in final.

-- Home side won last five Middle Tennessee-Arkansas State games, as Blue Raiders lost last two visits here by 1-4 points- they lost to State in Sun Belt tourney LY, 64-61. MT won last its four games, giving up an average of 51.8 ppg; they're 10-0 vs teams not in top 100, with eight of 10 wins by 14+ points. ASU is 4-1 at home (lost by 7 to Murray St.).
-- Western Kentucky won last eight games vs Little Rock, winning last three here by 9-21-2 points- they beat Trojans by 5 in Sun Belt tourney last March. Hilltoppers are 4-0 in league, winning road games by 11-4 points- they're 7-0 vs teams not in top 200, with five of seven wins by 11+ points. Little Rock lost last three games, by 2-15-9 points.
-- BYU went 12-4 in its first year in WCC, but lost 82-68 to LMU at home, after beating Lions by 8 in LA. Cougars are 8-0 vs teams outside top 100, with seven wins by 15+ points. LMU lost its two games with top 100 teams by 3-21 points; they haven't beaten anyone ranked higher than #232. Surprise is that BYU plays at #13 pace in country.
-- Gonzaga won at least 18 in row vs Pepperdine, winning last nine here by 17-7-10-25-35-14-18-19-12 points; Zags won their two away games by total of 3 points (Wash St/Okla St). Waves lost to Cal by 17, Tulane by 15, beat Wazzu by hoop in three games vs top 100 teams- they turn ball over 24.1% of time- three of five losses are by six or less points.
-- Home side won 13 of last 15 Stanford-USC games; Cardinal lost six of last seven visits here, losing by 11-4-13-6-5-23 points- they ended skid here LY with 51-43 win. Trojans lost seven of last nine games- they've struggled to score vs #49 schedule. Stanford is 6-0 vs teams not in top 100, with five wins by 11+ points- they're making 27.3% from arc.

-- Long Beach won last six games vs Cal Poly, winning last four here by 3-6-16-9 points; 49ers played hardest pre-conference schedule in nation, are 3-2 vs teams outside top 100, with two of three wins on road (LMU, Fresno). Cal Poly lost four of last five games vs D-I teams since upset win at UCLA Nov 25; Mustangs are 3-1 at home (L76-67 to Fresno). .
-- Cal Bears won four of last five games vs UCLA, with three of four by 10+ points; they won two of last three visits here, but lost last four vs top 100 teams, by 25-1-10-5 points. Cal is 1-1 on road, winning by 11 at Denver, losing by 25 at Wisconsin. UCLA won last five games, with wins by 2-3 points over Texas/Missouri- they're 8-1 at home.
-- Canisius is one of most-improved teams in country at 10-4, #109 in country (they were 5-25, #311 LY). Griffins are making 40.8% of their 3-point shots (#9 in country); they won 67-55 at Fairfield last month, ending nine-game series skid. Stags won last five games since then after a 4-5 start, beating St Joe's/ODU in last two by total of four points.
-- First OVC game for #22 Belmont, which jumped from Atlantic Sun to reduce travel costs; Bruins are 9-4 against #12 schedule, but they've lost last three road games, losing by 3 at UCF Saturday. Jacksonville State is 10-3, winning seven of last eight games, but they're 0-3 vs teams in top 200, losing by 19-22-4 points- best team they beat is #264 NC A&T. Gamecocks have played the #334 schedule so far.

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CFB

Fiesta Bowl (Phoenix)
73-year old Snyder covered 11 of last 13 games as underdog; K-State has eight senior starters on defense, none on offensive line. Biggest question in this game is whether talk about Chip Kelly going to NFL will distract Oregon, which is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 42-45-56 points in wins, 17-19 in losses (Kelly 1-2 in bowls). Oregon scored 42+ points in all its wins, 14 in OT loss to Stanford; they're 6-1 vs spread last seven games as a favorite. K-State's only loss was as a 12-point favorite at Baylor (52-24); they won SU both times they were underdog this year, but lost last four bowls, allowing 33.8 ppg. Wildcats lost 35-28 to Ohio State in this game in '03. K-State's Klein is senior QB who was banged up late in year but had time to recover; Ducks' QB Mariota is redshirt freshman. Underdogs covered five of last six Fiesta Bowls, where domed stadium guarantees fast track-- 68-79 points were scored here last two years. Under is 17-13 in bowls, faves are 13-16 against spread.

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Spurs won last seven games, covering five of last six (1-2 as AU).
-- Nuggets won three of last four games (9-2 as HF).

Cold Teams
-- New York lost three of its last four games (1-4 last five HF).
-- T'wolves lost five of last seven games (6-7 as AU).

Totals
-- Under is 8-4 in last dozen San Antonio games.
-- Five of last six Minnesota games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Spurs are 5-2-1 vs spread when they played night before.
-- Minnesota is 1-4 vs spread when playing 2nd straight nite on road.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Florida (-14) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s Oregon. The deficit is 5 sirignanos.

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 959 - 713 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner Thurs: SA Spurs + 1

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Stanford -1

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DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 19 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 6-1 (.857)
ATS: 4-3 (.571)
ATS Vary Units: 20-16 (.556)
Over/Under: 2-5 (.286)
Over/Under Vary Units: 7-8 (.467)

Season
Straight Up: 1062-353 (.751)
ATS: 434-401 (.520)
ATS Vary Units: 2516-2318 (.520)
Over/Under: 384-374 (.507)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1251-915 (.578)

Thursday, January 3, 2013
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Oregon 47, Kansas State 43

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/03/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1569-453 (.776)
ATS: 626-641 (.494)
ATS Vary Units: 2249-2381 (.486)
Over/Under: 174-172 (.503)
Over/Under Vary Units: 221-249 (.470)

Big Sky Conference
IDAHO STATE 61, North Dakota 60
MONTANA 80, Eastern Washington 64
Portland State 79, MONTANA STATE 75
Sacramento State vs. NORTHERN ARIZONA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WEBER STATE 81, Northern Colorado 67

Big Ten Conference
Michigan 70, NORTHWESTERN 61
WISCONSIN 69, Penn State 52

Big West Conference
Cal State Fullerton vs. HAWAI'I: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE 76, UC Riverside 61
Long Beach State 66, CAL POLY 65
UC SANTA BARBARA 71, UC Irvine 65

Colonial Athletic Association
GEORGE MASON 71, Northeastern 58

Horizon League
DETROIT 80, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 63
WRIGHT STATE 59, Green Bay 56

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Fairfield 68, CANISIUS 67
NIAGARA 77, Marist 67

Northeast Conference
Central Connecticut State 75, SAINT FRANCIS (PA.) 69
Long Island 84, SACRED HEART 79
MOUNT ST. MARY'S 71, Fairleigh Dickinson 67
QUINNIPIAC 76, St. Francis (N.Y.) 67
ROBERT MORRIS 77, Bryant 59
WAGNER 74, Monmouth 60

Ohio Valley Conference
Belmont 70, JACKSONVILLE STATE 60
EASTERN KENTUCKY 69, Eastern Illinois 55
MOREHEAD STATE 72, Siue 60
Murray State 82, UT MARTIN 58
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 79, Austin Peay 69
Tennessee State 67, TENNESSEE TECH 65

Pacific-10 Conference
ARIZONA 71, Colorado 62
Stanford 64, USC 56
UCLA 77, California 67

Southland Conference
NICHOLLS STATE 80, Central Arkansas 78
NORTHWESTERN STATE 79, McNeese State 74
Oral Roberts 68, SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 60
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 66, Lamar 52

Summit League
North Dakota State 77, SOUTH DAKOTA 67
OAKLAND 91, Omaha 66
South Dakota State 76, KANSAS CITY 62

Sun Belt Conference
Middle Tennessee 68, ARKANSAS STATE 62
NORTH TEXAS 74, Troy 63
South Alabama 70, ULM 64
UL Lafayette 70, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 69
Western Kentucky 67, UALR 64

West Coast Conference
BYU 83, Loyola Marymount 70
Gonzaga 77, PEPPERDINE 58
SAN DIEGO 68, Portland 63

Western Athletic Conference
DENVER 77, Texas State 56
Idaho 71, SAN JOSE STATE 70
NEW MEXICO STATE 76, UT San Antonio 62
UTAH STATE 80, Seattle 67

Non-Conference
AMERICAN 68, Umes 54
HOUSTON 79, Texas-Pan American 64
MISSISSIPPI STATE 83, New Orleans 63
UNLV 86, Chicago State 55

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/03/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 315-145 (.685)
ATS: 231-235 (.496)
ATS Vary Units: 715-655 (.522)
Over/Under: 244-222 (.524)
Over/Under Vary Units: 407-343 (.543)

San Antonio 105, NEW YORK 102
DENVER 108, Minnesota 97