1-4-13

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Spartan | CFB Side Fri, 01/04/13 - 8:00 PM

263 Texas A&M -4.5 (-110) Hilton vs 264 Oklahoma
Analysis: If someone had told me prior to this season that these two would be hooking up in this years Cotton Bowl I frankly would have laughed. When Missouri and Texas A&M made the move to the SEC most observers felt it would be a smoother transition on the football field for the Tigers than the Aggie's. Well, how wrong can that be. What would the odds have been if someone had told us back in august that it would be Northern Illinois knocking the powerful Sooners out of the BCS. By this point guys you've all heard everything you want to hear and more about Aggies young QB sensation Johnny Manziel. I don't have anything to add that you have not heard except I do fully expect him to top off his remarkable season in winning style. Frankly I do question Stoops ability to get his Oklahoma Sooner's as up for this game as he'd like after having higher hopes dashed. Texas A&M gathered steam as the season progressed and I have a difficult time seeing the Sooner's stemming the tide. Should be a good game for the most part but I have a tough time seeing Oklahoma containing the Aggies who can be ultra dangerous when they balance their run with the pass and I expect them to have success here doing exactly that. It's my opinion the Aggies can contain the Oklahoma front seven enough to keep them honest throughout. Something about the electric Manziel in this prime time stand alone game, in Jerry's house to top it off that makes me think he will be the one to grab the spotlight here, not Landry Jones. Texas A&M made a lot of believers out there, including yours truly, when they ventured into very hostile Alabama territory« and knocked off the Tide. They won't be blink here in the lights of the Cotton Bowl, I assure you that. I only do one Bowl Game of the Year and yes, I like the Aggies that much in this spot. Last year we easily cashed on the big one with Bama dominating LSU. Let's get ourselves this one as well. Hopefully without much drama involved. Triple Star Bowl GOY on those Texas A&M Aggies. Now, it's NOT a lock guys, My regular clients know full and well I don't play that game. Maintain your self discipline and money management practices. Many sincere thanks and best of luck to us. Enjoy the game!

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Vegas Sports Informer

8 Unit Play. #264 Take Oklahoma +5 over Texas A&M (8:00p.m., Friday, Jan. 4 ESPN Cotton Bowl)

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Robert Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 73.5 Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma (8 p.m., Friday, Jan. 4)

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Cotton Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+3, 73.5)

WHEN: 8:00 PM ET, Friday, January 4, 2013
WHERE: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas

AT&T COTTON BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. Former Big 12 rivals Oklahoma and Texas A&M are set to square off in the Cotton Bowl, which features the added attraction of Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. The freshman quarterback accounted for 4,600 yards and 43 touchdowns and led the Aggies to a 10-2 record in their first season in the SEC.

2. Oklahoma has dominated the series against Texas A&M in recent years, with the Sooners going 11-2 under coach Bob Stoops, including wins in eight of the last nine meetings.

3. Texas A&M’s first 10-win season since 1998 was highlighted by a 29-24 victory over then-No. 1 Alabama on No. 10, while the Sooners’ two losses came by a combined eight points against opponents with a combined 21-3 record.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Texas A&M opened as a 3-point favorite and was bet up to as high as -4.5 before money on OU brought the spread back to -3. The total has moved from 71.5 to 73.5.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Aggies are the Texas team in this matchup at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (10-2, 6-2 SEC, 7-5 ATS): This figures to be a high-scoring contest with the Aggies ranked third in the country in scoring at 44.8 points per game and Oklahoma tied for 12th at 40.2 points. Both teams are riding five-game winning streaks, with the Aggies’ only losses coming to Florida and LSU. Manziel is a true duel threat for the Aggies, who are 7-0 when he rushes for more than 100 yards. Texas A&M ranks 13th in the country in rushing offense at 235.1 yards per game, and the Aggies will look to establish their ground game behind offensive tackle Luke Joeckel, who received the Outland Award as the nation’s top interior lineman. Texas A&M allowed only 22.5 points per game, led by defensive end Damontre Moore's 12.5 sacks. The Aggies’ return game has been solid, but kicker Taylor Bertolet only made 13 of his 22 field goal attempts.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (10-2, 8-1 Big 12, 6-6 ATS): Senior quarterback Landry Jones, who ranks fifth in the nation with 332.4 passing yards per game, is 3-0 in bowl games heading into his 50th and final career start. The Sooners scored 125 points in their last three games, and their offensive line allowed only six sacks in nine Big 12 contests. Wide receiver Kenny Stills has a team-high 11 touchdown receptions and junior Damien Williams led the ground attack with 902 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns. The Sooners boast the Big 12’s top pass defense, and safety Tony Jefferson led the team with 113 tackles. Oklahoma has forced 14 turnovers in the last nine games, with 11 coming off interceptions. The Sooners could be without wide receiver/punt returner Jalen Saunders, whose status is in doubt after he was arrested for marijuana possession on Dec. 2.

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Bowl Teams Playing Close to Home are 12-4 ATS

Home-field advantage during bowl season is a wishy-washy fact, since the games are all played at “neutral sites”. However, there are more than a few programs that enjoyed a short trip to their bowl game and those teams proved profitable for football bettors.

Back in December, we highlighted 18 teams playing their bowl games close to home. As of prior to the Fiesta Bowl, 16 of those schools have played and 12 of them have won SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread) in their postseason matchup.

Utah State, Central Florida, UL Lafayette, Central Michigan, Rice, Syracuse, Texas, Vanderbilt, Clemson, Oklahoma State, Stanford, and Florida State all cashed in close to home. In fact, heading into Thursday’s Fiesta Bowl, teams tabbed as the “home team” are 20-10 SU and 19-11 ATS.

The only four teams playing close to home that failed to cover were San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl, Duke in the Belk Bowl, UCLA in the Holiday Bowl, and UL Monroe in the Independence Bowl.

There are two more teams remaining from our original list of 18 that have yet to take the field this postseason.

Texas A&M hosts Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas - just 184 miles from College Station. Oddsmakers have the Aggies set as 3-point favorites. The Sooners, however, are tabbed as the “home” side and traveled only 196 miles from Norman for the Cotton Bowl.

Mississippi also has a home-field edge over Pittsburgh in the Compass Bowl, having to only make a 180-mile trek to Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama. Ole Miss is set as a 3.5-point favorite for Saturday’s bowl game.

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Northcoast

3* Oklahoma+3

Top opinion
OVER 73 Texas A&M / Oklahoma

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Gold Sheet

Projected Scores

Oklahoma 39 - TEXAS A&M 37

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Winning Points

COTTON BOWL (at Arlington, TX)
Oklahoma over Texas A & M by 1
Texas A & M has NFL-caliber players on both sides of the ball. OL Luke Joeckel, OL Jake Matthews, and LB Damontre Moore are surefire first-round picks.
Adding a certain RS freshman to the mix propelled the Aggies to a 10-2 season marred only by narrow losses to Florida and LSU. Texas A & M was 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in true road games and accumulated more than 600 yards on six occasions including a 647-yard outburst in the regular season finale vs. Missouri. However, we’re inclined to take the points. If the Heisman Trophy had been conceived as a career achievement award, the hardware may have gone to Landry Jones. In two of his last three starts, Jones threw for 500-plus yards. His 122 TD passes are the most of any active player. The arrival of Damien Williams has revved up the running game. The juco transfer had a 95-yard TD run vs. Texas and his 66-yard TD run vs. TCU. The OU defense is soft, but the Sooners should have little difficulty moving the chains. Johnny Manziel had great rapport with co-OC Kliff Kingsbury, his former position coach who now parks his hat in Lubbock. Manziel’s celebrity gives the Sooners greater motivation. OU has won seven of the last eight meetings (it was 41-25 last year) and has won three straight bowl games since falling short in the 2008/09 national title game.
OKLAHOMA 36-35.

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Sports Reporter

COTTON BOWL
Cowboys Stadium – Arlington, TX
BEST BET
TEXAS A&M over OKLAHOMA by 17
It’s senior Landry “Stat Boy” Jones quarterbacking Oklahoma, with freshman Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel quarterbacking Texas A&M!
Stat Boy wants to know why he wasn’t invited to New York for that Heisman hoopla. Funny how things change quickly in this world, isn’t it? Here were some headlines from late summer and Fall: “Geno Smith the First Threat to Landry Jones,” “Is Landry Jones Best Bet to Edge Out Matt Barkley in Heisman Race?,” “Matt Barkley, Landry Jones lead Heisman candidates,” “Landry Jones Jumps Back Into Heisman Conversation,” “What Oklahoma QB Landry Jones Has To Do to Win the Heisman.” Here’s an answer to the last question: “Pay somebody off!” Stat Boy hasn’t been a big game dude in his four-year career with the Sooners, who are now playing what is probably the best bowl opponent in his tenure after they faced 4-loss Stanford (with Tavita Pritchard quarterbacking), 4-loss Connecticut (with Zach Fraser quarterbacking), then 5-loss Iowa last season. The Aggies lost twice this season – by 3 points to Florida and 5 points to LSU. Not that Oklahoma’s two losses were to chopped liver – Kansas State lost only once, Notre Dame has yet to lose – but each loss was to a physical opposing offense that likes to muscle up and run the ball and which had a quarterback who likes to dart around running and give opposing defenses fits. Texas A&M fits that description to T…AM. Stat Boy is most comfortable when he can stand back in the pocket undisturbed. When he gets ressured, an opposing DB becomes a candidate to catch a pass or two. Texas A&M rushed for 236 yards per game this season: Notre Dame and Kansas State rushed for 202 and 199 per game. Oklahoma rushes for 164 per game, barely average for college football. Manziel has 19 rushing TDs, Stat Boy has 0.
TEXAS A&M, 41-24

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Pointwise

COTTON BOWL
TEXAS A&M (10-2) vs OKLAHOMA (10-2)
"Who are those guys?". That oft-repeated query from "Butch Cassidy & the
Sundance Kid" certainly applies to the Aggies of TexasA&M. Our annual "Polls"
column on week #1 listed 33 teams which had even the slimmest backing in
pre-season rankings. Nary a vote for the Ags, despite returning 13 starters
from last year's 7-6 squad, including a win over Northwestern in the Meineke
Bowl. Not only that, but in '11, A&M enjoyed double digit leads in all but 1 gm,
& could have easily finished at 12-1 SU, ranking 7th & 10th in total & scoring
"O". However, their "D" was lethal, & would have to go it this year without the
prolific Tannehill at QB (3,744 TYs). Enter Johnny Manziel, a dual threat (3,419
PYs, 24 TDs; 1,181 RYs, 19 TDs), who has not only proceeded to electrify the
nation, but also become the only frosh winner of the HeismanTrophy. Only 3
& 5 pt losses to Florida & Lsu (5 TOs vs Tigers) have marred the Aggie record,
which is highlighted, of course, by that shocking upset of Alabama, as a 2-TD
dog. The 'Tide, by the way, is the only team to outgain the Ags (by 13 yds).
Worth a mention, of course, is the acquisition of HC Sumlin from Houston,
which led the nation in both in total & scoring a year ago. Can A&M's magic
continue vs such a bowl-tested & proven entity as the Sooners of Oklahoma,
who are appearing their 14th consecutive bowl game, which, coincidentally, is
the exact span of Stoops' tenure at Norman. Led again by QB Jones, who has
thrown for an astounding 16,368 yds & 122 TDs over the past 4 yrs, the Okies
rank 5th, 10th, 12th in passing, total, scoring "O", but check allowing 43.7 ppg
in 3 of their final 4 outings. In battle of old SWC foes, we bravely lay the spot.
RATING: 6: TEXAS A&M 41 - Oklahoma 34

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Playbook Marc Lawrence

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK

COTTON BOWL
Cowboys Stadium • Arlington, TX
Oklahoma over Texas A&M by 4
These two teams know one another from A&M’s days in the Big 12 so the feeling here is Big Game Bob has a message to deliver with the Aggies bolting out of the B12 in favor of the SEC. But let’s face it – with a new coaching staff led by Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M far exceeded expectations in its fi rst season in the nation’s toughest conference. The Aggies’ only two losses in 2012 came at the hands of SEC foes Florida (by 3 points) and LSU (by 5 points) and A&M provided its fans with a pair of memorable achievements. First, when they strode into Tuscaloosa back in November 10 and dominated No. 1 Alabama, rolling to a 20-0 lead and then hanging on for the monumental 29-24 upset. The second, of course, occurred not quite three weeks ago when Aggies QB Johnny Manziel became the first freshman player ever to walk away with the Heisman Trophy. Seldom do the Sooners arrive at a BCS bowl while being competely overlooked but that feels like the case here: A&M off a wildly successful campaign playing before a Texas-heavy crowd at Cowboys Stadium against an Oklahoma squad whose 10-2 effort was widely viewed as disappointing. Now the real question becomes can A&M maintain its season-long momentum after a lengthy layoff? We say no… not against the Sooners. Oklahoma has won 10 of the last 12 battles between these two SU and was favored in every one of those contests. With OU taking points here, our database informs us that HC Bob Stoops is a no-nonsense 10-2 ATS as a dog off back-to-back wins. He’s also logged a 22-6 SU and 19-9 ITS mark versus bowlers over the past three seasons. But the big negative for the Aggies here is the dreaded ‘Heisman Jinx.’ Heisman Trophy winning bowl squads are just 6-20 ATS vs greaterthan .667 foes, including a mind-boggling 1-11 ATS versus an opponent off consecutive wins. Postseason play has also not been kind to A&M as its win over Northwestern in last year’s Meineke Bowl snapped an ugly 0-5 SUATS bowl losing streak. Johnny Football may get all the press before this game but look for more the more experienced Landry Jones, and all of his achievements, to win today’s quarterback duel before heading off to the NFL. Okies bag their fifth win this season in the Lone Star State.

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STATFOX

Forecaster:
TEXAS A&M 37
OKLAHOMA 31
• OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 70 over the L2 seasons.
• Kevin Sumlin is 19-4 OVER off a home win.
• Bob Stoops is 11-2 OVER when the total is greater than or equal to 70 as coach of OKLAHOMA.

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Pointwise

CBB

FRIDAY, JANUARY 4 SCORE
(7:00) GEORGIA 66 - George Washington 63
(7:00) RHODE ISLAND 62 - Brown 61
(7:00) VALPARAISO 71 - Cleveland State 51
(8:00) TENNESSEE 76 - Memphis 75 (ESPN2)
(9:00) MISSISSIPPI 80 - Fordham 54

BEST BETS: BROWN

NBA

FRIDAY, JANUARY 4 SCORE
(7:05) TORONTO RAPTORS 95 - Sacramento Kings 90
(7:05) Cleveland Cavaliers 110 - CHARLOTTE 'CATS 105
(7:05) Brooklyn Nets 94 - WASHINGTON WIZARDS 89
(7:35) Atlanta Hawks 106 - DETROIT PISTONS 103
(7:35) MIAMI HEAT 106 - Chicago Bulls 90
(8:05) BOSTON CELTICS 99 - Indiana Pacers 98 (ESPN)
(8:05) OKLA CITY 112 - Philadelphia 76ers 100
(8:05) Portland Blazers 98 - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 96
(8:35) MILWAUKEE BUCKS 118 - Houston Rockets 113
(9:05) PHOENIX SUNS 99 - Utah Jazz 93
(10:35) LA CLIPPERS 111 - LA Lakers 101 (ESPN)

BEST BETS: INDIANA, PORTLAND, LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (3)

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Toronto won eight of last nine games (4-2 as HF). Kings are 5-3 in last eight games, covering seven of the eight.
-- Nets are 3-1 since changing coaches (2-1 as AF).
-- Hawks won five of last six games (5-2 as AF). Detroit won five of its last six games (1-4 last five HU).
-- Miami won eight of last ten games (6-2 last eight HF).
-- Pacers won nine of last eleven games (2-8 last ten AU).
-- Thunder won 15 of last 18 games (3-5 last eight HF).
-- Portland won eight of last eleven games (2-7 last nine AU).
-- Rockets won seven of last nine games (5-6-1 as AU).
-- Lakers won six of last eight games (1-5 vs spread as an U).

Cold Teams
-- Cavaliers lost nine of last eleven games (4-16 SU on road). Bobcats snapped 18-game losing skid Monday (lost last 10 home games).
-- Wizards lost 11 of last 12 games (5-6-2 as HU).
-- Bulls lost three of last five games (3-4 as AU).
-- Celtics lost eight of last ten games (4-7-1 as HF).
-- 76ers lost three of last four games (3-7 last ten AU).
-- Memphis lost three of last five games (9-5-1 as HF).
-- Bucks are 4-5 in last nine games (4-1 last five aa HF).
-- Jazz lost seven of last ten games (3-9-1 as AU)' Phoenix lost six of its last seven (4-6 as HF, but covered last three).
-- Clippers lost last two games after winning previous 18 (8-1 last nine as HF).

Totals
-- Five of last six Sacramento games went over total.
-- Six of last nine Cavalier games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Brooklyn games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Miami home games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Thunder games went over the total.
-- 10 of Grizzlies last 12 games stayed under. Five of last seven Portland road games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Houston games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Phoenix games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Clipper games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- None.