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Dr bob
2 Star Selection
ILLINOIS (+4) over Ohio State (Rotation: 554)
05-Jan-13 11:15 AM Pacific
Ohio State is coming off a couple of easy wins over huge favorites, but teams that cover the spread as big favorites in consecutive games tend to struggle on the road in competitive games against good teams. The Buckeyes apply to a negative 23-64-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise and the record is just 2-16 ATS if the home team is coming off a loss. My ratings favor Ohio State by 2 ½ points and the line opened at that number and has gone up. I’ll take Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +3 or more.
3 Star Selection
Rice (+16) over HARVARD (Rotation: 561)
05-Jan-13 01:00 PM Pacific
Harvard will suffer a letdown as a big favorite against a bad Rice team after two emotionally charged games during a West coast swing that resulted in a win over Cal at Berkeley and coming within 1 point of upsetting St. Mary’s in Moraga. Teams that suffer close losses as an underdog often letdown in their next game as a big favorite and Harvard applies to a 21-68 ATS letdown situation that is based on that premise. Rice, meanwhile, applies to a 62-16-3 ATS subset of a 185-87-5 ATS big road underdog situation. My ratings favor Harvard by just 15 ½ points and I’ll take Rice in a 3-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +15 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at +16 or more, 2-Stars down to +15.
2 Star Selection
Loyola Marymount (+18) over ST. MARY'S (Rotation: 561)
05-Jan-13 04:35 PM Pacific
Loyola Marymount is coming off a 51-92 blowout loss at BYU just 2 nights ago but teams that lose that badly usually bounce-back in their next game and the Lions apply to an 85-32-3 ATS bounce-back situation today. My ratings favor St. Mary's by 17 1/2, so the line is fair, and I'll take Loyola Marymount in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
3-Unit Play. Take #526 Michigan State (-11.5) over Purdue (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 5)
Purdue is awful. They are just an awful, awful basketball team. And that win at home over Illinois was a fluke because Illinois is a bunch of idiots. D.J. Byrd is terrible and he isn't going to go off again today and the Boilers aren't going to just be throwing stuff up from the block and watching it fall. They are in a perfect letdown spot. Michigan State matches up perfectly with the Boilers. They both want to play the same kind of game, but the Spartans are going to do it better. Michigan State was embarrassed in The Barn their last time out and they want to get that first Big Ten win. They have had a lot of time to prep, they watched Purdue beat Illinois so they are not overlooking this team at all, and I think this one is going to be a bloodbath as long as Michigan State's guards can stay out of their own way.
2-Unit Play. Take #528 Notre Dame (-9.5) over Seton Hall (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 5)
Seton Hall dodged a bullet in DePaul earlier this week. But the had to play that game, then drive down to South Bend, hang out, and now wake up and play an 11 a.m. local tip. I don't expect the kids from Jersey to be down with that. This is a decent Seton Hall team and they have impressed me a bit so far this year. But they still have a lot of work to do. And playing against the pathetic schedule that they have had hasn't really prepared them for the Big East. Notre Dame goes nuts at home and I think that this team is excited to get conference play going. They haven't played in two weeks so there should be some early rust. But these guys have dominated teams like Niagara, Kentucky, and GW at home this year and I think they will stay hot.
2-Unit Play. Take #529 Delaware (-2) over Old Dominion (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 5)
The CAA is wretched this year, and there are really only a select few teams worth following. Delaware is one of them. Old Dominion is not. ODU is awful this year. They cannot defend - at all - and that has always been their staple. They have no experienced stud to fall back on like they have in recent years and this team is just kind of a jumbled mess. Delaware hasn't really been healthy yet this year, but the holiday break would've served them well. I think that they are ready to plunge head-long into a league season where they have to be on the short list of teams ready to win the title. We have the best player on the floor in Devon Saddler and I like the cohesion and experience of this Hens group more than I do that on ODU.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #526 Michigan State (-6.5) over Purdue (Noon) AND
Take #528 Notre Dame (-4.5) over Seton Hall (Noon)
4-Unit Play. Take #553 Ohio State (-3.5) over Illinois (2 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 5)
I really like the Buckeyes here. They have revenge from a loss in Champagne last year and I don't think Thad Matta will let it happen twice. Illinois looked sloppy on Wednesday. They lost to Purdue as a big road favorite and I think that has rattled their confidence. Ohio State has gone 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and they have really got it going early in the season. Illinois is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 Big Ten conference games. They have not been a strong home bet and after a good start to the year I think they are fading. Lay the points and Ohio State closes this one out late.
3-Unit Play. Take #607 Arkansas-Little Rock (-2.5) over Troy (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 5)
This is a team I have followed closely in the Sun Belt. They are a strong side that is getting better. This team is very well coached and they are winning with excellent defense. They grew up a lot in the nonconference and now they have a Sun Belt cupcake to feast on. Little Rock won the first meeting back on Nov. 29 and I think they are going to get the sweep here this year. UA-LR is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games on Saturday and I think that this is a winner from off the beaten path.
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