1-13-13

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Sports-Junkie 1/13

BetThisPick

4-1-0 80%

1/06: 1-0 +5.00
1/07: 1-0 +5.00
1/08: 1-0 +5.00
1/09: 1-0 +5.00
1/12: 0-1 -5.75

1/13:

RARE TWO PLAY DAY:

PLAY #1:

NFL: Seattle vs Atlanta (1:00 pm est.)

5* NFL: Atlanta -2.5 (-110) (Pincle)

Key TRENDS for this game:

Seahawks are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Seahawks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Seahawks are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Falcons are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Falcons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Falcons are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss.

Falcons are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Falcons are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a ATS loss.

PLAY #2:

NBA: Thunder vs Portland (9:00 pm est.)

5* NBA: Portland +4.5 (-110) (Pincle)

Key TRENDS for this game:

Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.

Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Trail Blazers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.

Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.

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vegas-runner | NFL Side Sun, 01/13/13 - 4:30 PM
triple-dime bet 115 HOU 10.0 (-115) Bodog vs 116 NEP Analysis:
**** NFL PLAYOFFS 3* BOOKIE BET MAX BOMB ****

TEXANS +10 (-115)....(3*)

TRUE-LINE = NE -5.5

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vegas-runner | NFL Side Sun, 01/13/13 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 113 SEA 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 114 ATL Analysis:
*** NFL PLAYOFFS 3* BOOKIE BET BOMB ***

SEAHAWKS +3.5 (-125)....(3*)...BUYING the 1/2 POINT

TRUE-LINE = ATL -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness' 10* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year (won WC-GOY w/Packers)-Sunday!

My 10* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.
The Seahawks went 7-9 in each of Pete Carroll’s first two seasons in the Seattle. In 2010, that 7-9 record was good enough to win the NFC West and the Seahawks shocked the NFL ‘world’ by upsetting the defending Super Bowl champs (Saints), 41-36 in the wild card round. The Seahawks would then lose 35-24 at Chicago in the divisional round, which was hardly news, as it marked Seattle’s EIGHTH straight postseason road loss. Last year’s 7-9 record left the Seahawks woefully short of the 49ers, who went 13-3 in Jim Harbaugh’s first season. The 49ers were the overwhelming favorites to win the NFC West in 2012 and most expected the Seahawks to again be, around .500. The 49ers did win the division (11-4-1) but the Seahawks surprised almost all by going 11-5, including a 42-13 ‘spanking’ of the 49ers at Seattle in Week 16. That win was part of Seattle’s 7-1 second half run, which featured FIVE straight wins to end the regular season, outscoring those opponents 193 to 60. Rookie QB Russell Wilson threw for 3,118 yards (64.1%) with 26 TDs and 10 INTs (100.0 QB rating). while veteran RB Lynch ran for 1,590 yards on 5.0 YPC while scoring 11 rushing TDs. Seattle was one of the NFL’s best defensive teams, allowing 306.2 YPG (4th) and a league-low 15.3 PPG. The Seahawks promptly fell behind the Redskins 14-0 last Sunday in Washington but clawed their way back to win, 24-14. Yes, RG3 was FAR less than 100% (you think?) but the Seahawks deserve plenty of credit. Wilson was steady (187 rush with a TD / 67 rush), Lynch outstanding (132 rushing with one TD) and in the end, the defense was everything it was advertised to be. Washington never scored after the first quarter and ended the game with 203 total yards, as the NFL’s No. 1 rushing offense (169.3 YPG on 5.2 YPC) was held to just 104 yards on the ground. The road playoff win marked just Seattle’s second-ever as a franchise (first was Dec 31 of 1983 in Miami), ending a EIGHT-game losing streak. The Seahawks now visit Atlanta in the Division round and it would be easy to argue that the Seahawks have all the momentum. Also, the Falcons remain a HUGE question mark, despite coming in as the NFC’s No.1 seed with a 13-3 record. Here’s story you may be very familiar with. Mike Smith was named Atlanta’s head coach prior to the the 2008 season, after the Falcons went 4-12 in 2007. That was the season in which Mike Vick admitted his off-the-field problems before the season began and then that paragon of virtue, Bobby Petrino, ran out on the team (to Arkansas) before the year was even complete (I wonder how that worked out for him?). Smith’s hiring hardly made anyone “look up” and the drafting of Matt Ryan (Bos Coll) with the third overall pick in that year’s April draft, hardly created the buzz of a pick like Luck or RG3 this past April. However, Smith has proven to be helluva a head coach and Ryan has earned the nickname, “Matty Ice.” The Falcons have posted five consecutive winning seasons (franchise had NEVER produced consecutive winning seasons, prior to his arrival, going back to ). However, the ‘fly in the ointment’ is that these Falcons are 0-3 in their three playoff games, getting outscored 72-23 in their last two contests while being outgained 884-to-441 in yards. That’s the ‘elephant’ in the room and has many playing the Seahawks. I’m NOT one of them. The Falcons are 33-7 at home under Smith in the regular season (Ryan is 33-5) and this year’s team was 7-1 at home, until a meaningless Week 17 game against the Bucs. I believe this year’s Atlanta team is “different,” as no longer does the team revolve around the running game, led by Michael Turner. The Falcons averaged just 87.3 YPG (3.7 YPC) on the ground, 29th in the league in 2012. Turner had gained 1,300-plus yards in THREE of his four previous four seasons in Atlanta (missed in 2009 when he played just 11 games) but this year had 800 yards on only 3.6 YPC. Instead, the Falcons offense has been turned over to Ryan. He led the NFL in completion p[percentage in 2012 (68.6%, just barely edging Peyton) plus set career highs in passing yards (4,719), TD passes (32 with just 14 INTs) and in QB rating (99.1). The Falcons’ quick-strike passing attack is perfectly suited for their indoor stadium and in WRs White (92-14.7 YPC-7 TDs) and Jones (79-15.2 YPC-10 TDs) plus TE Gonzalez (93-10.0 YPC-8 TDs), the Falcons arguably own the NFL’s best receiving corps. Atlanta won all SIX games this season against its non-division NFC opponents plus beat both the Redskins and the Broncos (Peyton has his worst game of 2012 vs Atlanta’s pass D getting intercepted three times!), the two playoff teams on the schedule. Ryan has been brilliant down the stretch (11-1 ratio the last five games) and I believe the Falcons “made a statement” that this year was going to be different when they ended the Saints’ long-shot playoff hopes with a 23-13 home win in Week 13 (Brees was intercepted FIVE times!) and then CRUSHED the Giants in Atlanta 34-0 in Week 15 (Giants were held to 10F Ds and 256 yards with Eli going 13-25 for 161 yards with two INTs), the team which beat them in last year’s playoffs, 24-2! Ryan's teammates are confident he'll be that same quarterback he was in the regular season and nNOT the one who averaged 194.7 yards, threw three TDs, four picks and was sacked 10 times while posting a 71.2 rating in his three previous playoff games. “He knows we have to win a playoff game," Roddy White said. "Everybody knows that, and not to put any pressure on him, but I just think that at this point in the season, everybody knows they have to play their best football right now." The Seahawks won’t have to wait have to wait 29 years for their next playoff road win but it WON’T be coming this Sunday in Atlanta. Falcons win by two TDs!
Good luck...Larry

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Dr Bob

2* Raptors -3

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Bob Balfe

Atlanta Falcons -3

New England Patriots -9.5

Maryland +6

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Sports unlimited
7 atlanta

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Executive : 300% New England

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vegas snitch - whale - seahawks +3 and ML for tracking

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Sports Money Profit System:
#1: Take Milwaukee Bucks at +2 spread against Toronto Raptors risking 2 Units. (1:05 pm)

Some places currently have this line at +2.5 even.

#2: Take Brooklyn Nets at -4 spread against Indiana Pacers risking 2 Units. (6:05 pm)

NFL

#1: Take New England Patriots at -9.5 spread against Houston Texans risking 1 unit. (4:30 pm)

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executive hoops
300% Wichita state

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Bryan Leonard

NBA Portland +4.5

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sbb

4-STAR LA LAKERS -7 over Cleveland - The hate is going a little too far here. We know LA is not playing good ball right now, but this is Cleveland. A Cleveland team without Anderson Varejao which doesn't have any meaningful big either. Look for the Lakers to start to rebound here.
Cleveland is coming off a 98-91 loss to Denver. However the Cavs were up four going to the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers are 0-11 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since January 16, 2010 if not a double-digit dog, with at least one day of rest off a loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter.

They committed 30 fouls in the loss. The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since December 03, 2003 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they were whistled for at least 30 personal fouls.

LA meanwhile lost Friday night, 116-101 to Oklahoma City. They got outshot, 51%-40% in that game. The Lakers are 11-0-1 ATS (7.7 ppg) since May 17, 2009 after a game in which they were outshot by at least 10 percent, if this game's total is not 20+ points higher than last game.

Those the Cavs are just 9-29 this season, they did beat LA at home earlier this year. Only 11 of LA's 31 baskets were assisted in that game. The Lakers are 10-0-1 ATS (4.8 ppg) since May 17, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss in which fewer than 40% of their baskets were assisted.

That's because it became the one man Kobe show as he went for 42 points in the loss. The Lakers are 11-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since April 14, 2009 at home as a favorite with a total under 213 after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Kobe Bryant scored at least 30 points.

Pas Gasol missed that game as well as Steve Nash. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since March 24, 2008 as a favorite after losing the previous matchup in which Pau Gasol did not play.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: LA by 14

4-STAR Cleveland and Los Angeles Over 210.5 - It's been a wide open style of offense for LA and that's led to high-scoring games. Look for Kobe and Kyrie Irving to each have big games here leading this game over the total.

Cleveland is coming off a 98-91 loss in Denver Friday. One thing that hurt them in that game was committing 30 fouls. The Cavaliers are 11-0 OU (24.8 ppg) since April 09, 2004 after a road loss in which they were whistled for at least 30 personal fouls.

Irving led their effort in that game with 28 points. The Cavaliers are 7-0 OU (14.6 ppg) since November 05, 2012 with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Kyrie Irving was the Cavaliers' high scorer.

LA meanwhile lost last game, 116-101 to Oklahoma City. However they had just 12 turnovers in that game while attempting 98 shots. The Lakers are 11-0 OU (9.5 ppg) since April 13, 2010 at home after a game at home in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

The problem was the quality of those shots as they went just 39.8% from the field. The Lakers are 7-0 OU (14.3 ppg) since April 09, 2004 as a favorite after a double digit home loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field.

Oklahoma City meanwhile shot 50.6% from the field. The Lakers are 8-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since November 30, 2006 at home with at most one day of rest after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 222 points

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Scott Delaney

100 Dime NFL Winner 9 of 12

AFC Playoff Game of the Year

100 Dime- Patriots