1-14-13

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Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Jan. 6-12.

Hottest ATS team

New Orleans Hornets (3-0, SU, 3-0 ATS)

Despite their horrible SU record (11-25), the Hornets have been a decent bet this season (19-17 ATS). New Orleans has covered in four straight contests, including all three this past week against San Antonio, Houston and Minnesota. The Hornets hit the road for three games this week with stops in New York, Philadelphia and Boston, but that doesn’t mean bettors should fade them. New Orleans boasts an impressive 11-6 ATS mark away from home this season.

Coldest ATS team

Sacramento Kings (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS)

Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton returned from injuries this past week, but it hasn’t been enough to change Sacramento’s fortunes. The Kings are dealing with all kinds of off-court distractions like the potential sale and relocation of the team and that has translated into a string of poor performances on the court. Sacramento will have a chance to rebound against lowly Cleveland and Washington early this week.

Best over team

Orlando Magic (1-2 SU, 3-0 over/under)

The Magic have been the hottest over bet in the Association for the past three weeks. Orlando is riding a 10-game over streak into Monday’s contest in Washington. The Magic then enjoy a three-game homestand where they’ll welcome Indiana, Charlotte and Dallas. Orlando is 11-6-2 O/U at home.

Best under team

Indiana Pacers (3-0 SU, 0-3 over/under)

Indiana has been a fixture on Bank Shots week in and week out in this category for a reason. The Pacers lead the league in points allowed per game (89.1), opponent field goal percentage (41.3%) and opponent 3-point percentage (31.3%). Indiana is riding a seven-game under streak into Sunday’s tilt with Brooklyn and boasts the best under mark in the league at 13-23-1 O/U.

Scouting the schedule

- The Philadelphia 76ers enjoy 11 of their next 12 games at the friendly confines of the Wells ***** Center. Bettors note: The Sixers boast an impressive 14-4 over/under mark at home this season.

- The Cleveland Cavaliers are in the midst of a five-game west coast road swing. The Cavs are surprisingly 13-9 ATS on the road, compared to a 4-12 mark at home.

- The Utah Jazz wrapped up a three-game road trip with a win and cover at Detroit Saturday and now enter a stretch where they’ll play seven of their next eight at home. The Jazz are 10-5 ATS at EnergySolutions Arena.

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NCAAB game of the day: Louisville at UConn

Louisville at Connecticut (+6)

No. 4 Louisville is on an impressive run and seeks its 11th consecutive victory when it visits Connecticut in Hartford on Monday. The Cardinals are one of three unbeaten teams in Big East play and are off to the program’s best start since opening 16-1 during the 2003-04 campaign. Louisville coach Rick Pitino is expecting a fierce battle with the Huskies, who notched an impressive road victory at Notre Dame on Saturday under first-year coach Kevin Ollie. “They are a terrific team,” Pitino said. “I’m really happy for them because I love their coach. He is a class young man and I knew he would do a great job.” UConn has won two consecutive games and is 8-0 on its home courts.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (15-1, 3-0 Big East): Sophomore forward Chane Behanan was a surprise participant in the victory over South Florida and grabbed 12 rebounds while scoring seven points. It was feared Behanan would miss three or four games after he sprained his left ankle on Jan. 7 but he missed just one outing. “My whole foot was swollen for three days and there’s still pain,” Behanan said. “But it’s something I could tolerate and won’t let dictate us getting out of the Top 5 in the country. I can handle the pain.” Behanan is third on the Cardinals in scoring (11.1) and second in rebounding (7.4). Junior guard Russ Smith averages a team-best 18.7 points, senior point guard Peyton Siva contributes 11.9 points and a team-best 5.8 assists and junior center Gorgui Dieng checks in at 9.6 points and 9.8 rebounds per outing.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (12-3, 2-1 Big East): Junior forward Tyler Olander delivered a stunning performance with a career-high 16 points in the win over Notre Dame. Olander entered the contest with a 4.6 scoring average and hit 8-of-9 shots in the best effort of his career. “It’s definitely very rewarding,” said Olander, now averaging 5.3 points. “Things weren’t really working out for me at the beginning of the season. I stuck with it and kept working hard and got into the gym. It feels good to finally have hard work paying off.” Junior guard Shabazz Napier leads the Huskies with a 17.5 scoring average. Sophomore guard Ryan Boatright (16.1), sophomore forward DeAndre Daniels (11 points) and freshman guard Omar Calhoun (10.1) also average in double digits.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big East foes.
* Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.
* Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

TIP-INS:

1. Louisville leads the series 7-6 and routed UConn 80-59 in last season’s lone meeting.

2. Siva had 17 points in Saturday’s win over South Florida to become the 64th player in school history to reach 1,000 career points. He has 1,004.

3. UConn is shooting just 32.5 percent from 3-point range with Napier (40.3) the only player shooting better than 40 percent.

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NBA's fastest and slowest offensive teams

Handicapping NBA totals without using offensive pace is like trying to build a shed with just a glue gun – you’re missing a few important tools there bub.

Offensive pace, a stat made famous by former ESPN NBA analyst and current Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies John Hollinger, is the average number of possessions a team has per game.

For NBA total bettors, possessions mean points and points are the name of the game capping the over/under. Here’s a look at the three teams with the highest offensive pace and the three with the lowest, and how books are dealing with those teams’ totals.

Stats prior to action on Sunday, Jan. 12

Fastest offensive pace

Houston Rockets - 99.3 (22-16 over/under)

Houston has rocket fuel in their Nike’s with James Harden and Jeremy Lin headline a high-octane backcourt. The Rockets are second in the league in scoring (105.4) but have also given up a ton of points, allowing 103.3 ppg – 28th in the league. That’s an old fashion recipe for overs.

Los Angeles Lakers – 97.5 (19-16-1 over/under)

The Lakers pace is averaging 103.1 points, with a push from offensively-minded head coach Mike D’Antoni. With Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard on the shelf, L.A.’s has gone to a smaller, quicker lineup which could see its possession go up even further.

San Antonio Spurs/Denver Nuggets – 96.8 (19-20-0 over/under / 19-19-0 over/under)

The Spurs inclusion to this list may be a surprise to some, what with their aging core of superstars. San Antonio is making the most of all those possessions, averaging 104.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting a night – fourth best in the NBA. Denver is cut from a similar cloth, scoring 102 points on 46.4 percent shooting – fifth in the league.

Slowest offensive pace

New Orleans Hornets – 90.2 (18-18-0 over/under)

The Hornets only average 92 points a night but have seen a slight boost in scoring since the return of guard Eric Gordon. However, books may have adjusted a little too much for Gordon’s return. New Orleans slow-motion pace has gone 3-4 over/under in those games.

Brooklyn Nets – 90.4 (15-20-1 over/under)

The offensive pace has picked up since the Nets canned Avery Jones and handed the keys to P.J. Carlesimo. In the eight games since the coaching change, Brooklyn is averaging more than 102 points per game, posting a 5-3 over/under count. On the year, the Nets average just 96.2 points.

Indiana Pacers – 92.4 (13-23-1 over/under)

No team has a more misleading nickname than the Pacers. Indiana’s pace isn’t anywhere near Indy 500 speeds, making it one of the best under plays in the NBA. The Pacers are among the bottom dwellers in scoring (91.1) and haven’t been able to make up for the loss of Danny Granger, who won’t be back until February – maybe.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Seahawks (+2 1/2) Sunday.

Monday it’s Kansas. The surplus is 230 sirignanos.

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Pointwise

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

MONDAY, JANUARY 14 SCORE

(7:00) Louisville 77 - CONNECTICUT 65 (ESPN)

(9:00) KANSAS 86 - Baylor 79 (ESPN)

BEST BETS: BAYLOR

NBA

MONDAY, JANUARY 14 SCORE

(7:05) WASHINGTON WIZARDS 107 - Orlando 101
(7:35) BOSTON CELTICS 108 - Charlotte Bobcats 99

(8:05) Atlanta Hawks 96 - CHICAGO BULLS 91
(8:05) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 98 - LA Clippers 97
(8:35) DALLAS MAVERICKS 104 - Minnesota 'Wolves 92

(9:05) Miami Heat 110 - UTAH JAZZ 108
(9:05) Oklahoma City Thunder 99 - PHOENIX SUNS 95
(10:05) Cleveland Cavaliers 98 - SACRAMENTO 91

BEST BETS: ATLANTA (2), DALLAS, CLEVELAND

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Winning Points

Monday, January 14

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

**PREFERRED
Louisville over Connecticut* by 17
If UConn wins and/or covers its two games Saturday and here, we’ll be 0-2 in those
games. But we wanted to be anti-UConn from the git-go in Big East season when they
were playing anyone decent, so here we are.
LOUISVILLE, 71-54.

Kansas* over Baylor by 15

NBA

*Washington over Orlando by 3
Washington is playing for only the third time in eight days. The Wizards defeated the
Magic at home, 105-97, on Dec. 28 breaking Orlando’s 12-game streak of keeping
opponents under triple digits. There’s a chance the Wizards could have John Wall back
by this time.
WASHINGTON 101-98.

**PREFERRED
*Boston over Charlotte by 18
The Celtics can’t afford not to be focused given their recent troubles. Boston has struggled in the open court against athletic opponents. That won’t be the case here. The return of Avery Bradley provides Boston with one of its best defenders. Despite getting generous odds, the Bobcats still were only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games
through Jan. 5.
BOSTON 110-92.

Atlanta over *Chicago by 3
Carlos Booze and Joakim Noah are nice players, but they are trumped by Al Horford
and multi-facet Josh Smith. The Hawks were 15-8 ATS in their last 23 road contests
through the first week of January.
ATLANTA 97-94.

*Memphis over Los Angeles Clippers by 4
The Grizzlies are playing for the third time in four nights, but were 11-4 ATS versus
opponents with a winning record and have revenge for losing to the Clippers in seven
games during the playoffs last season.
MEMPHIS 102-98.

*Dallas over Minnesota by 5
The Mavericks have a double revenge motive after losing by eight at home to
Minnesota and in overtime on the road.
DALLAS 103-98.

Miami over *Utah by 5
The Jazz are not to be trifled with in Salt Lake City where they had covered nine of
their first 14 this season. However, they are playing the defending champions and this
is their first game back from a three-game trip. The Heat rolled past the Jazz in Miami,
105-89, on Dec. 22 despite not having Chris Bosh.
MIAMI 106-101.

**PREFERRED
Oklahoma City over *Phoenix by 16
The Suns were on pace to have the third-worst record in franchise history ranking near
the bottom in the major defensive categories, but without the offense to make up for
it. This also is Phoenix’s fifth game in seven days and first following a four-game road
trip that ended Saturday night. The Thunder beat the Suns for the seventh time in a
row, burying them, 114-96, on Dec. 31 in Oklahoma City. The Suns have no answer
for Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
OKLAHOMA CITY 114-98.

*Sacramento over Cleveland by 5
The Kings have been missing Tyreke Evans (check status) and DeMarcus Cousins
remains a talented head case. Cleveland, though, is no bargain playing its second road
game in 48 hours and going 3-7 ATS when meeting a foe with a losing mark.
SACRAMENTO 101-96.

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INT Picks
2*--Clippers @ Memphis OVER 184
Louisville @ Connecticut UNDER 133

1*--Baylor +10.5 @ Kansas

Freebie Orlando @ Washington UNDER 192.5

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Wizards won last two games, covered four of five at home (0-2 HF).
-- Celtics won last five games, allowing 84.4 ppg (6-3 last nine HF).
-- Clippers won 20 of last 23 games (3-2 AU). Memphis won four of its last five games (10-6-1 HF).
-- Dallas won last two games, after losing 13 of previous 15 (5-5 HF).
-- Jazz won five of last seven games (3-0 HU).
-- Oklahoma City won five of last six games (9-4-1 AF).

Cold Teams
-- Magic snapped 10-game skid with a win Saturday (9-2 last 11 AU).
-- Hornets lost 22 of last 24 games (7-11 AU).
-- Hawks lost five of last six games (3-5 AU). Chicago lost four of its last six home games (3-14 HF).
-- Minnesota lost four of last five games (2-6 last eight AU).
-- Miami lost three of last five games (5-9 AF).
-- Suns lost five of their last six games (4-4 HU).
-- Kings lost last four games, three by 20+ points (4-3-1 HF). Cavaliers lost seven of last nine games (12-9 AU).

Totals
-- Last ten Orlando games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Charlotte road games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Memphis games.
-- Five of last six Minnesota road games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Thunder games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last ten Sacramento games went over total.

Back-to-backs
-- Minnesota is 3-5 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Thunder is 3-4 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Cleveland is 5-3 vs spread on road if it played night before.

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CBB

-- Louisville won five of last six games vs UConn; three of last five were decided by 3 or less points. Cardinals won last two visits here by total of three points. Louisville forces turnovers 29% of time; they're 3-0 in true road games, winning by 15-9-42 points. Huskies' losses this year are by 6-4-6 points; the've won six of last seven games, with loss in OT at Marquette. Big East home underdogs are 2-4 vs spread.
-- Kansas won 10 of last 12 games vs Baylor, with both losses in Big X tourney, including 81-72 LY; Bears lost last five visits here, by 20-15-10-6-18 points. Baylor is 4-2 vs top 100 teams; all four of its losses are by 7 or less points- they've won at Kentucky, lost by 7 at Gonzaga. Big X home favorites are 1-6 vs spread. Jayhawks won last 13 games, with six of last eight wins vs top 100 teams.
-- Western Carolina won four of last five games vs Elon, winning four of last five played here, with wins by 12-7-2-7 points. Catamounts are 4-0 in SoCon, with home wins by 6-3 points. Elon lost four of its last six games; their last three losses are all by 10+ points- they're 3-5 on road, with a win at South Carolina. SoCon home teams are 1-5 vs spread in games where number is 5 or less points.

-- Wofford won seven of last eight games with Furman, winning four in a row here, by 3-11-14-7 points; Terriers lost three of last four games; they turn ball over 22.2% of time. Furman lost its last six games, but played fairly well in last two, losing to Charleston by 4, Davidson by 8. Paladins turn ball over 23.5% of time, shoot 28% from arc. SoCon home underdogs are 1-5 vs spread.
-- NC-Greensboro is 6-5 in last 11 games vs Appalachian State, but lost five of last seven visits here, with losses by 5-14-23-8-14 points. ASU won four of last five games, after starting 0-7 vs D-I foes. UNCG is 1-11 vs D-I teams, with only win over #345 Citadel; six of its last seven losses were by 11+ points. SoCon home teams are 1-5 vs spread in games where number is 5 or less points.
-- Davidson won 11 in row, 15 of its last 16 games vs Georgia Southern; Wildcats won last six visits here, by 9-20-21-4-7-17 points- they're 4-0 in league play, winning by 26-7-2-8 points. Eagles lost last three games, scoring 59.7 ppg; they turn ball over 23.5% of time. Davidson is 3-3 on road, winning last two away tilts by 6-8 points. SoCon home underdogs are 1-5 vs spread.
-- Charleston won last four games vs Citadel by average score of 78-59; they won last three visits here, by 6-22-8 points. Cougars turn ball over 24% of time, but won six of last seven games; they're 5-0 on road, with no wins by more than 12 points. Citadel lost last ten games, but lost last two games by total of nine points. SoCon double digit favorites are 2-4 vs spread, 1-0 on road.

-- Weber State won seven of last eight games vs Idaho State, but lost by hoop in last visit here LY; Wildcats had won previous three visits, by 9-2-24 points, with two of those wins in OT. Weber is 5-0 in Big Sky, 3-0 on road, winning by 21-4-7 points. Bengals won last two games, after a 0-11 start vs D-I teams; their conference losses are by 14-3-13 points. Big Sky home underdogs are 4-3 vs spread.
-- Norfolk State is 3-0 in MEAC after going 5-10 in pre-conference tilts; their league wins are by 10-6-5 points- they're 6-3 vs teams outside top 200. Howard turns ball over 24.3% of time; their three D-I wins are vs teams ranked #280-311-295. Norfolk won last six series games, with all six by 8+ points- their last three games overall were decided by 6 or less points.
-- Jackson State is 1-13, 0-5 in SWAC, with three of five losses by 4 or less points; this is their 13th road game out of 15- their conference road losses are by 4-1-27 points. Prairie View lost six of its last seven games; they're 2-1 at home vs D-I teams, with wins by 1-16. State won six of last seven series games. PV turns ball over 21.7% of time, shoots only 26% behind the arc.

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/14/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1939-607 (.762)
ATS: 803-839 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 2710-2891 (.484)
Over/Under: 212-212 (.500)
Over/Under Vary Units: 256-288 (.471)

Big 12 Conference
KANSAS 78, Baylor 66

Big East Conference
Louisville 69, CONNECTICUT 64

Big Sky Conference
Weber State 73, IDAHO STATE 60

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
COPPIN STATE 76, South Carolina State 66
Norfolk State 62, HOWARD 59
North Carolina A&T 76, FLORIDA A&M 72
North Carolina Central 67, BETHUNE-COOKMAN 65
Savannah State 59, MORGAN STATE 58

Southern Conference
APPALACHIAN STATE 83, UNC Greensboro 71
College of Charleston 73, THE CITADEL 57
Davidson 73, GEORGIA SOUTHERN 60
WESTERN CAROLINA 73, Elon 69
Wofford 62, FURMAN 54

Southwestern Athletic Conference
ALCORN STATE 62, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 56
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 68, Jackson State 61
SOUTHERN 68, Mississippi Valley State 53
TEXAS SOUTHERN 76, Grambling State 48

Non-Conference
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 75, Njit 69
HAMPTON 66, Quinnipiac 64
UTEP 81, Houston Baptist 51

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/14/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 359-176 (.671)
ATS: 267-279 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 790-751 (.513)
Over/Under: 281-263 (.517)
Over/Under Vary Units: 449-401 (.528)

Orlando vs. WASHINGTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
BOSTON 102, Charlotte 85
CHICAGO 94, Atlanta 88
MEMPHIS 94, L.A. Clippers 92
DALLAS 104, Minnesota 98
Miami vs. UTAH: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Oklahoma City 106, PHOENIX 98
SACRAMENTO 105, Cleveland 99

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 964 - 719 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner Mon WEBER St -13

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Norfolk State at Howard

The Spartans look to take advantage of a Howard team that is coming off a 51-49 loss to Hampton and is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU defeat. Norfolk State is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, JANUARY 14 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 717-718: Louisville at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 78.541; Connecticut 67.593 Dunkel Line: Louisville by 11; 137 Vegas Line: Louisville by 7; 133 Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-7); Over

Game 719-720: Baylor at Kansas (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 66.959; Kansas 81.979 Dunkel Line: Kansas by 15; 138 Vegas Line: Kansas by 10 1/2; 142 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-10 1/2); Under

Game 721-722: Elon at Western Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Elon 50.812; Western Carolina 53.590 Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 3 Vegas Line: Western Carolina by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (-1 1/2)

Game 723-724: Wofford at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 53.545; Furman 46.117 Dunkel Line: Wofford by 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Wofford by 7 Dunkel Pick: Wofford (-7)

Game 725-726: NC-Greensboro at Appalachian State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 44.132; Appalachian State 46.417 Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 2 1/2 Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+4 1/2)

Game 727-728: Davidson at Georgia Southern (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 60.453; Georgia Southern 51.014 Dunkel Line: Davidson by 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Davidson by 12 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+12 1/2)

Game 729-730: College of Charleston at The Citadel (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 52.904; The Citadel 37.459 Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 15 1/2 Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 14 Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (-14)

Game 731-732: Weber State at Idaho State (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 59.791; Idaho State 45.131 Dunkel Line: Weber State by 14 1/2 Vegas Line: Weber State by 12 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Weber State (-12 1/2)

Game 741-742: Norfolk State at Howard (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 47.992; Howard 41.543 Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 6 1/2; 115 Vegas Line: Norfolk State by 2 1/2; 120 Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (-2 1/2); Under

Game 743-744: Jackson State at Prairie View (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jackson State 38.061; Prairie View 42.792 Dunkel Line: Prairie View by 4 1/2; 138 Vegas Line: Prairie View by 6; 134 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Jackson State (+6); Over

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5Lines

Total Line for 01/14/2013
(Won last 2 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Orlando Magic : o192.5
Cost: -110


Run Line for 01/14/2013
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Chicago Bulls : -3.5
Cost: -110