1-15-13

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Study group: Tuesday’s Top 25 NCB betting notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on all of Tuesday's ranked college basketball games:

(20) Notre Dame at St. John’s (+5.5)

The Fighting Irish's 12-game run, which included nine victories in a row at home, abruptly ended Saturday with a 65-58 loss to Connecticut. Notre Dame was outrebounded 30-22 and made just four free throws in matching its season low for scoring and falling short of establishing the program's longest winning streak in nearly 60 years. After recording an upset win at Cincinnati on Jan. 5, the Red Storm have dropped a pair at home, including a 67-51 loss to Georgetown on Saturday. The Red Storm have been held to 58 points or less in three straight contests and are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Northern Iowa at (10) Creighton (-13.5)

Star forward Doug McDermott scored a season-high 39 points in a 74-52 victory over Missouri State on Friday to boost Creighton’s winning streak to 10, including five straight conference games. Northern Iowa is coming off an 84-53 trouncing of Bradley and the 31-point victory was the school’s largest since joining the Missouri Valley for the 1991-92 campaign. The Panthers also matched a school record by sinking 15 3-point baskets in that contest. The Bluejays are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

(24) Cincinnati at DePaul (+7)

The Blue Demons will be well-rested. They have not played since a 99-78 loss at Connecticut on Jan. 8. Brandon Young scored a career-high 35 points but DePaul offered little resistance on the defensive end and was outrebounded 46-26. The Bearcats rank second nationally with 43.4 rebounds per game. They are third in the country with a total of 267 offensive boards. Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.

Wisconsin at (2) Indiana (-11)

Two teams with six-game winning streaks battle for first place in the Big Ten when Indiana hosts Wisconsin. Wisconsin is allowing just 50.2 points during its winning streak and only 47.7 during its three Big Ten contests. Indiana has won 18 consecutive home games and has topped 80 points 13 times. The Hoosiers play a vastly different style than Wisconsin and are averaging 87.1 points per game. Indiana is outscoring its opponents 333-166 from the free-throw line and shooting a blistering 51.1 percent from the field. The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

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NBA's Fastest & Slowest Offensive Teams

Handicapping NBA totals without using offensive pace is like trying to build a shed with just a glue gun – you’re missing a few important tools there bub.

Offensive pace, a stat made famous by former ESPN NBA analyst and current Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies John Hollinger, is the average number of possessions a team has per game.

For NBA total bettors, possessions mean points and points are the name of the game capping the over/under. Here’s a look at the three teams with the highest offensive pace and the three with the lowest, and how books are dealing with those teams’ totals.

Stats prior to action on Sunday, Jan. 12

Fastest Offensive Pace

Houston Rockets - 99.3 (22-16 over/under)

Houston has rocket fuel in their Nike’s with James Harden and Jeremy Lin headline a high-octane backcourt. The Rockets are second in the league in scoring (105.4) but have also given up a ton of points, allowing 103.3 ppg – 28th in the league. That’s an old fashion recipe for overs.

Los Angeles Lakers – 97.5 (19-16-1 over/under)

The Lakers pace is averaging 103.1 points, with a push from offensively-minded head coach Mike D’Antoni. With Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard on the shelf, L.A.’s has gone to a smaller, quicker lineup which could see its possession go up even further.

San Antonio Spurs/Denver Nuggets – 96.8 (19-20-0 over/under / 19-19-0 over/under)

The Spurs inclusion to this list may be a surprise to some, what with their aging core of superstars. San Antonio is making the most of all those possessions, averaging 104.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting a night – fourth best in the NBA. Denver is cut from a similar cloth, scoring 102 points on 46.4 percent shooting – fifth in the league.

Slowest Offensive Pace

New Orleans Hornets – 90.2 (18-18-0 over/under)

The Hornets only average 92 points a night but have seen a slight boost in scoring since the return of guard Eric Gordon. However, books may have adjusted a little too much for Gordon’s return. New Orleans slow-motion pace has gone 3-4 over/under in those games.

Brooklyn Nets – 90.4 (15-20-1 over/under)

The offensive pace has picked up since the Nets canned Avery Jones and handed the keys to P.J. Carlesimo. In the eight games since the coaching change, Brooklyn is averaging more than 102 points per game, posting a 5-3 over/under count. On the year, the Nets average just 96.2 points.

Indiana Pacers – 92.4 (13-23-1 over/under)

No team has a more misleading nickname than the Pacers. Indiana’s pace isn’t anywhere near Indy 500 speeds, making it one of the best under plays in the NBA. The Pacers are among the bottom dwellers in scoring (91.1) and haven’t been able to make up for the loss of Danny Granger, who won’t be back until February – maybe.

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POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

TUESDAY, JANUARY 15 SCORE

(7:00) CLEMSON 66 - Wake Forest 61 (ESPNU)
(7:00) ST JOHNS 65 - Notre Dame 62 (ESPN2)
(7:00) GEORGE MASON 82 - James Madison 68
(7:00) Central Michigan 67 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 63
(7:00) KENTUCKY 69 - Tennessee 49 (ESPN)

(8:00) CREIGHTON 74 - Northern Iowa 62
(8:00) BRADLEY 71 - Southern Illinois 51 (ESPNU)
(8:30) Cincinnati 69 - DEPAUL 68

(9:00) INDIANA 72 - Wisconsin 62 (ESPN)
(9:00) Mississippi 68 - VANDERBILT 67 (ESPNU)

BEST BETS: CENTRAL MICHIGAN, KENTUCKY, BRADLEY, WISCONSIN

NBA

TUESDAY, JANUARY 15 SCORE

(7:05) CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 97 - Indiana Pacers 94

(7:05) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 88 - New Orleans 85

(7:35) BROOKLYN NETS 100 - Toronto Raptors 91

(8:05) HOUSTON ROCKETS 119 - LA Clippers 116

(9:05) DENVER NUGGETS 99 - Portland Blazers 93

(10:35) Milwaukee Bucks 101 - LA LAKERS 100

BEST BETS: NEW ORLEANS, MILWAUKEE (4)

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WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Tuesday, January 15

Clemson* over Wake Forest by 11

Notre Dame over St. John’s* by 3

George Mason* over James Madison by 14

Eastern Michigan* over Central Michigan by 7

Kentucky* over Tennessee by 14

Creighton* over Northern Iowa by 15

Bradley* over Southern Illinois by 11

Cincinnati over DePaul* by 6

**PREFERRED
Indiana* over Wisconsin by 21
The Berggren-Zeller match-up is no contest favoring Indiana, and so would some of
the others be. Wisconsin’s schedule coming into this will have done nothing to prepare them for Indiana (bricklaying Nebraska-Omaha, Wisconsin-GB, Wisconsin-Mil,
Samford, Penn State, Nebraska, prior to Illinois on Saturday).
INDIANA, 75-54.

Vanderbilt* over Mississippi by 4
Loved Ole Miss home down in class vs. Fordham! Not loving Ole Miss on the SEC
road against an opponent that plays decent D!
VANDERBILT, 68-64

NBA

Tuesday, January 15

Indiana over *Charlotte by 6
Indiana just hosted the Bobcats this past Saturday. The Pacers were upset, 90-89, in
their earlier meeting at Charlotte back in the beginning of November unable to corral
Kemba Walker, who scored 30 points.
INDIANA 95-89

*Philadelphia over New Orleans by 7
The 76ers have defeated New Orleans in five of the past six meetings and hold a huge
point guard advantage with Jrue Holiday.
PHILADELPHIA 99-92.

*Brooklyn over Toronto by 5
The young Raptors may encounter trouble since this is their first road matchup in
seven games. The Nets, however, were 2-7 ATS the past nine times they’ve been home
chalk through last Thursday.
BROOKLYN 101-96.

*Houston over Los Angeles Clippers by 4
The Clippers are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when playing with no rest. Houston
was 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS during its past seven home games through the first week of the
month with its only loss during this time coming to Oklahoma City. The Rockets have
been idle the last two days.
HOUSTON 108-104.

*Denver over Portland by 11
LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t going to be enough as Denver was leading the NBA in scoring points in the paint. Portland had surrendered at least 99 points in seven of its last
nine road games through this past Thursday. The Nuggets were 36-2 at Pepsi Center
when reaching triple digits through the first week of this month.
DENVER 106-95.

**PREFERRED
*Los Angeles Lakers over Milwaukee by 17
The Bucks may have tired legs flying from Toronto following a Sunday matchup
against the Raptors not to mention culture shock going against a high-scoring West
Coast team. Milwaukee was 0-4 SU and ATS versus Western Conference opponents
on the road losing by a combined 52 points. The Bucks lack the athletic front line to
hang in against Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant.
LA LAKERS 110-93

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Pacers won 13 of last 17 games (7-1 AF).
-- Hornets won four of last five games (11-5 AU).
-- Brooklyn won six in row, eight of nine since changing coaches (4-1 last five HF). Raptors won 10 of last 14 games (8-9 AU, 3-1 last four).
-- Clippers won four of last five games (4-6 AF).
-- Nuggets won last five games (11-5 HF). Portland won 12 of last 17 games, covered 7 of 9 (7-9 AU).
-- Bucks won three of four games since changing coaches (8-4 AU).

Cold Teams
-- Charlotte lost 23 of last 25 games (6-7 HU).
-- 76ers lost seven of last nine games (5-8 HF).
-- Houston lost last three games, by 9-12-7 points (2-2 HU).
-- Lakers lost six of last seven games (4-8 last 12 HF).

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Hornet games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 17 Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Clipper games went over total.
-- Seven of last ten Portland road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee games went over total.

Back-to-backs
-- Charlotte is 5-5 vs spread if it played night before, 2-1 at home.
-- Clippers are 1-4 vs spread on road if they played night before.

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CBB

-- Wake Forest won five of last six games, winning last two ACC games by 3 points; they're 1-2 on road, losing by 18 at Duke, 2 at Richmond. Wake won last three games vs Clemson, by 14-11-20 points; Deacons lost four of last five visits here, losing by 1-5-14-11 points. Clemson is 8-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100; they're 1-2 in ACC, but won by 15 over Virginia last game. ACC single digit home faves are 3-6 vs spread.
-- Notre Dame had 12-game win streak snapped at home by UConn last game; Irish won by 6 at Cincinnati in only true road game. St John's lost four of last five games, including last three at home. Home side won eight of last nine Notre Dame-St John's games; Irish lost last four visits here, by 3-6-18-3 points. ND Big East home dogs are 2-5 vs spread; home teams are 0-10 vs spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.
-- George Mason is 4-5 in last nine games, with bad loss to UNCW last game; Patriots won seven in row, 17 of last 18 games vs James Madison, winning last nine here, by 4-22-21-27-26-14-2-14-10 points. JMU won six of last eight gaes; they allowed less than 60 points in last four wins. Mason is 5-6 vs teams ranked in top 200. CAA single digit home faves are 5-7 against the spread.

-- Central Michigan is 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, but three of five wins are by six or less points; Chippewas won three in row, six of last seven games vs Eastern Michigan; last five series games were won by six or less points. Eastern lost last seven games vs D-I teams; they're turning ball over 23.8% of time, making just 29.4% behind arc. MAC home teams are 2-7 vs spread in games with single digit spread.
-- Kentucky is 1-5 vs teams ranked in top 100; lone win came on Nov 9, 67 days ago (by 3 over Maryland); Wildcats won five in row, eight of its last nine games vs Tennessee. Vols lost last six visits here, by 19-6-19-11-7-25 points. Kentucky lost last game at home, after winning by only a hoop at Vandy in SEC opener. Tennessee lost last three games, by 5-18-3 points. SEC home favorites of 9+ points are 3-1 vs spread.
-- Creighton is a juggernaut, winning last ten games; four of its five wins in MVC are by 13+ points. Home teams won last five Northern Iowa-Creighton games; Panthers lost seven of last nine visits here, losing last two years by 8-3 points. UNI is 3-5 in last eight games, but three of the five losses were vs top 40 teams. Panthers routed Bradley by 31 in last game Saturday. MVC double digit home favorites are 2-6 vs spread.
-- Southern Illinois lost five of last six games, with four of five losses on road, and three of four road losses by 11+ points. Bradley lost by 31 to skidding Northern Iowa last game, Braves' third loss in row (by 6-15-31 points). Road teams won seven of last nine Southern Illinois-Bradley games, as Salukis won last three visits to Peoria, by 5-8-9 points. MVC home favorites of 8 or less points are 5-3 vs spread.

-- Cincinnati is 2-3 in last five games, with visitor winning all five games; Bearcats won last four games vs DePaul by 5-16-3-8 points, taking last two visits here, by 4-3 points. Blue Demons lost three of last four after a 9-3 start, losing last two home games. Cincy is 2-0 on road, winning at Pitt by 9, Rutgers by 10. Big East home dogs are 2-5 vs spread; home teams are 0-10 vs spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.
-- Wisconsin won its last six games, holding all six foes to 54 points or less; Badgers won last ten games vs Indiana, winning last four here, by 2-17-32-10 points- they beat Hoosiers in Big Dozen tourney LY. Indiana won its last six games, winning first three league games, by 4-23-7- they were up 23 at half on Minnesota Sunday, won by 7. Big Dozen double digit home favorites are 5-3 against the spread.
-- 13-2 Ole Miss won last five games, winning by 18-15 points in first two SEC games. Vanderbilt lost four of last five games, scoring 58-33 points in first two SEC tilts. Commodores won last five games vs Ole Miss, beating Rebels twice LY, 102-76 in regular season, then 65-53 in SEC tourney semis; Ole Miss lost last four visits here, by 22-5-10-10 points. SEC single digit underdogs are 6-3 vs spread, 1-0 at home.

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Basketball Crusher
Milwaukee Bucks +7 over LA Lakers
(System Record: 43-3, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 43-29-0



Soccer Crusher
MK Dons + Sheffield Wednesday UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in England
(System Record: 341-14, won last game)
Overall Record: 341-299-40

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Today's NBA Picks

New Orleans at Philadelphia

The Sixers look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games against the Hornets. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Sixers favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 15 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Indiana at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 119.641; Charlotte 110.668 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 9; 192 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 185 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: New Orleans at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 112.658; Philadelphia 117.999 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 180 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 184 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under

Game 505-506: Toronto at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 117.631; Brooklyn 122.026 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 4 1/2; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7; 190 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+7); Over

Game 507-508: LA Clippers at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 124.885; Houston 121.609 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3 1/2; 204 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 509-510: Portland at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 117.513; Denver 127.249 Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 9 1/2; 208 Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 8 1/2; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Milwaukee at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 114.440 LA Lakers 122.339 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8; 208 Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6 1/2; 212 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-6 1/2); Under

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Mississippi at Vanderbilt

The Commodores look to take advantage of a Mississippi team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rebels favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+9 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 15 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 513-514: Wake Forest at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 56.648; Clemson 65.695 Dunkel Line: Clemson by 9; 121 Vegas Line: Clemson by 8; 124 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-8); Under

Game 515-516: Notre Dame at St. John's (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 67.656; St. John's 63.376 Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 4 1/2; 138 Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 6; 133 Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+6); Over

Game 517-518: James Madison at George Mason (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 49.296; George Mason 61.547 Dunkel Line: George Mason by 12 1/2 Vegas Line: George Mason by 8 Dunkel Pick: George Mason (-8)

Game 519-520: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 52.110; Eastern Michigan 49.220 Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 3 Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-1 1/2)

Game 521-522: Tennessee at Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 61.267; Kentucky 80.322 Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 19; 131 Vegas Line: Kentucky by 11 1/2; 135 Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-11 1/2); Under

Game 523-524: Northern Iowa at Creighton (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 60.604; Creighton 77.462 Dunkel Line: Creighton by 17 Vegas Line: Creighton by 13 Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-13)

Game 525-526: Southern Illinois at Bradley (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 51.734; Bradley 59.137 Dunkel Line: Bradley by 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Bradley by 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Bradley (-5 1/2)

Game 527-528: Cincinnati at DePaul (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 67.854; DePaul 63.777 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 5 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7 Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+7)

Game 529-530: Wisconsin at Indiana (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 67.450; Indiana 81.940 Dunkel Line: Indiana by 14 1/2; 129 Vegas Line: Indiana by 10 1/2; 134 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-10 1/2); Under

Game 531-532: Mississippi at Vanderbilt (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 66.847; Vanderbilt 64.347 Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 2 1/2 Vegas Line: Mississippi by 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+9 1/2)

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/15/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1954-612 (.761)
ATS: 808-844 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 2722-2898 (.484)
Over/Under: 212-215 (.496)
Over/Under Vary Units: 256-288 (.471)

America East Conference
STONY BROOK 63, Boston U. 52

Atlantic Coast Conference
CLEMSON 65, Wake Forest 59

Big East Conference
Cincinnati 76, DePAUL 65
Notre Dame 71, ST. JOHN'S 62

Big Ten Conference
INDIANA 72, Wisconsin 61

Mid-American Conference
Central Michigan vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Missouri Valley Conference
BRADLEY 68, Southern Illinois 60
CREIGHTON 78, Northern Iowa 60

Southeastern Conference
KENTUCKY 75, Tennessee 59
Ole Miss 68, VANDERBILT 63

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/15/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 364-177 (.673)
ATS: 272-281 (.492)
ATS Vary Units: 799-754 (.514)
Over/Under: 285-267 (.516)
Over/Under Vary Units: 454-407 (.527)

PHILADELPHIA 92, New Orleans 88
Indiana 97, CHARLOTTE 88
BROOKLYN 98, Toronto 92
L.A. Clippers 103, HOUSTON 102
DENVER 107, Portland 97
L.A. LAKERS 104, Milwaukee 100

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 965 - 719 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner See packages TUES Denver -9

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

Eastern Michigan +1.5

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Cappers Access

St Johns +6
Vanderbilt +9