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Tuley: Super Bowl ATS pick | Vegas Experts | PickCenter
With Super Bowl XLVII on Sunday, Insider enlisted the help of three Vegas handicappers -- Sal Selvaggio of Madduxsports.com, Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog.com and The Sports Boss -- to get their takes on which team will cover this weekend, as well as some prop bet suggestions.
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers minus-3.5
Wunderdog: The 49ers are a physical defensive team that has faced a pair of finesse, pass-oriented offenses with suspect defenses in two playoff games (Packers, Falcons). Now they face a team like themselves for the first time: a rough, physical defense that loves to smack the opponent in the face. One difference, though, is that the 49ers are a relatively young team, while the Ravens have a ton of postseason experience. Ray Lewis already has a championship ring and Joe Flacco is 8-4 in the playoffs. San Francisco has a young QB in Colin Kaepernick, who wasn't even the starter when this season began. He has performed well on the big stage thus far, but this is the biggest stage of all.
The San Francisco offense begins with the read-option, which is tough to defend as it takes time to learn. Baltimore catches a break with the two-week layoff, not only to rest after playing three straight playoff games (two on the road), but extra time to prepare for the read-option.
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The San Francisco defense has star power, but how good and healthy is the unit really? Last season in two playoff games, the 49ers gave up 52 points. This postseason they've allowed 55 points. They registered only one sack each against Green Bay and Atlanta. It helps to have a balanced offense when attacking them, and the Ravens have it with all-purpose running back Ray Rice. Flacco has been superb with eight touchdown passes and no picks in three playoff games and has great targets in Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. And, this season the 49ers' defense has been anything but great against good offenses. Against offenses in the top half of the league, San Francisco has given up a very pedestrian 25.6 points per game.
This spread being more than a field goal could be the difference. This is a game that Baltimore could win, and even if the Ravens don't, it could be a field-goal game. Take the points with the Ravens.
ATS pick: Ravens
Sal Selvaggio: The Ravens have taken a similar path as last year's Giants -- underachieving in the regular season and then elevating their play in the postseason. The Ravens have been very impressive in the playoffs, destroying the Colts and following that up with two road wins against the AFC's two best teams. Unfortunately for Ravens backers, I think the fairy tale ends without a happy ending Sunday.
For the season Baltimore's offense is averaging 5.7 yards per play while allowing 5.2 YPPL on defense. The defense is now fully healthy and I rate this unit's current personnel 0.2 YPPL better its full season rating. Even with that bump, I still give the 49ers a decent-sized advantage when they have the ball, as the 49ers have averaged 6.3 YPPL for the season -- and that number projects even greater with Kaepernick under center.
When the Ravens have the ball, they will be going up against my second-rated defense in the league. For the season the 49ers have allowed a stingy 5.0 YPPL, and those numbers have been even better when Justin Smith has been healthy. While Smith won't be fully healthy for this game, he has had two weeks to rest his injury.
Add it all up and after adjusting for strength of schedule, my model favors the 49ers by 5.5 points. I also have a rushing situation that favors San Francisco that is 66 percent since 1980. Winning the turnover battle is key to winning NFL games, and I also project the Ravens to cough the ball up more than San Francisco. I feel that the 49ers at minus-3.5 are a decent bet this Sunday.
ATS pick: San Francisco
Sports Boss: I am on the Ravens in this one. My numbers show a significant advantage in recent games, going back the last seven, including playoffs, where the Ravens have the edge. I think the Ravens' defense has come to play in the playoffs for Lewis' swan song, and will continue playing at a high level in this game.
I look for a lower-scoring game, unlike most of what we have seen in the playoffs so far. Although using the full season numbers, the 49ers show an edge via the ground game, those numbers don't bear out when using recent games -- and I try to lean on that model more in the playoffs. San Francisco showed many holes in the NFC title game versus Atlanta, and the Ravens are a better all-around team. I think the Baltimore passing game can have success, especially the short-to-mid-range passes. Take the Ravens to cover and win Super Bowl XLVII 23-17.
ATS pick: Ravens
Prop bet suggestion
Prop: First quarter under 10 points
Wunderdog: During the 2012 regular season, an average of 9.4 points per game was scored in the first quarter. Baltimore's games averaged 10.0 first-quarter points, while San Francisco's games averaged just 7.9 per game. Average the two and we get 9.0 points, which is a full point lower than this posted total. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low-scoring one, as an average of 8.3 points per game has been scored. As the magnitude of this game seems to grow each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game, where both teams are trying to avoid big mistakes early. So, the play calling and the play on the field tend to be conservative in the early going. With 12 of the last 14 Super Bowls producing 10 or fewer points in the first quarter, the under is the play here.
With Super Bowl XLVII on Sunday, Insider enlisted the help of three Vegas handicappers -- Sal Selvaggio of Madduxsports.com, Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog.com and The Sports Boss -- to get their takes on which team will cover this weekend, as well as some prop bet suggestions.
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers minus-3.5
Wunderdog: The 49ers are a physical defensive team that has faced a pair of finesse, pass-oriented offenses with suspect defenses in two playoff games (Packers, Falcons). Now they face a team like themselves for the first time: a rough, physical defense that loves to smack the opponent in the face. One difference, though, is that the 49ers are a relatively young team, while the Ravens have a ton of postseason experience. Ray Lewis already has a championship ring and Joe Flacco is 8-4 in the playoffs. San Francisco has a young QB in Colin Kaepernick, who wasn't even the starter when this season began. He has performed well on the big stage thus far, but this is the biggest stage of all.
The San Francisco offense begins with the read-option, which is tough to defend as it takes time to learn. Baltimore catches a break with the two-week layoff, not only to rest after playing three straight playoff games (two on the road), but extra time to prepare for the read-option.
Insider PickCenter
The San Francisco defense has star power, but how good and healthy is the unit really? Last season in two playoff games, the 49ers gave up 52 points. This postseason they've allowed 55 points. They registered only one sack each against Green Bay and Atlanta. It helps to have a balanced offense when attacking them, and the Ravens have it with all-purpose running back Ray Rice. Flacco has been superb with eight touchdown passes and no picks in three playoff games and has great targets in Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. And, this season the 49ers' defense has been anything but great against good offenses. Against offenses in the top half of the league, San Francisco has given up a very pedestrian 25.6 points per game.
This spread being more than a field goal could be the difference. This is a game that Baltimore could win, and even if the Ravens don't, it could be a field-goal game. Take the points with the Ravens.
ATS pick: Ravens
Sal Selvaggio: The Ravens have taken a similar path as last year's Giants -- underachieving in the regular season and then elevating their play in the postseason. The Ravens have been very impressive in the playoffs, destroying the Colts and following that up with two road wins against the AFC's two best teams. Unfortunately for Ravens backers, I think the fairy tale ends without a happy ending Sunday.
For the season Baltimore's offense is averaging 5.7 yards per play while allowing 5.2 YPPL on defense. The defense is now fully healthy and I rate this unit's current personnel 0.2 YPPL better its full season rating. Even with that bump, I still give the 49ers a decent-sized advantage when they have the ball, as the 49ers have averaged 6.3 YPPL for the season -- and that number projects even greater with Kaepernick under center.
When the Ravens have the ball, they will be going up against my second-rated defense in the league. For the season the 49ers have allowed a stingy 5.0 YPPL, and those numbers have been even better when Justin Smith has been healthy. While Smith won't be fully healthy for this game, he has had two weeks to rest his injury.
Add it all up and after adjusting for strength of schedule, my model favors the 49ers by 5.5 points. I also have a rushing situation that favors San Francisco that is 66 percent since 1980. Winning the turnover battle is key to winning NFL games, and I also project the Ravens to cough the ball up more than San Francisco. I feel that the 49ers at minus-3.5 are a decent bet this Sunday.
ATS pick: San Francisco
Sports Boss: I am on the Ravens in this one. My numbers show a significant advantage in recent games, going back the last seven, including playoffs, where the Ravens have the edge. I think the Ravens' defense has come to play in the playoffs for Lewis' swan song, and will continue playing at a high level in this game.
I look for a lower-scoring game, unlike most of what we have seen in the playoffs so far. Although using the full season numbers, the 49ers show an edge via the ground game, those numbers don't bear out when using recent games -- and I try to lean on that model more in the playoffs. San Francisco showed many holes in the NFC title game versus Atlanta, and the Ravens are a better all-around team. I think the Baltimore passing game can have success, especially the short-to-mid-range passes. Take the Ravens to cover and win Super Bowl XLVII 23-17.
ATS pick: Ravens
Prop bet suggestion
Prop: First quarter under 10 points
Wunderdog: During the 2012 regular season, an average of 9.4 points per game was scored in the first quarter. Baltimore's games averaged 10.0 first-quarter points, while San Francisco's games averaged just 7.9 per game. Average the two and we get 9.0 points, which is a full point lower than this posted total. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low-scoring one, as an average of 8.3 points per game has been scored. As the magnitude of this game seems to grow each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game, where both teams are trying to avoid big mistakes early. So, the play calling and the play on the field tend to be conservative in the early going. With 12 of the last 14 Super Bowls producing 10 or fewer points in the first quarter, the under is the play here.
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