2-2-13

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Burns NHL:

9* Montreal Under 5- -135
9* Phoenix -125\
8* Philly -130

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Sebastian

100 Michigan
100 Florida
100 Oklahoma
100 Iowa state
100 Southern Miss.
400 New Mexico
1000 Texas

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Larry Ness' 10* Conference G.O.M.-NBA (11-4 L2 Saturdays)
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET.


I played the Jazz last night (over the Blazers) as part of my winning Superstar Triple Play and will come right back tonight on the Blazers, over the Jazz. The Jazz are CLEARLY much better at home (17-5) than on the road (9-16) and the same can be said of the Blazers, who fell to 7-15 on the road with last night’s loss but are 16-8 here in the Rose Garden. The Jazz have used a home-heavy part of their schedule to move to 26-21 overall, giving them the No. 7 seed (currently) in the West. The 25-23 Rockets are just 1 1/2 games behind them with the Blazers (23-23) currently sitting in the 9th-spot, one game out of postseason play. Now history says the Jazz have won 10 of the past 13 meetings with the Blazers, including a 5-1 record at the Rose Garden, but I’m still taking the home team in this quick turnaround, despite them losing guard Matthews to a bad ankle sprain last night. I WON’T ignore the fact that the Jazz are just 3-11 on the road against Western Conference teams this season, also going 3-11 ATS (that’s a 79% “go-against!”). Play the Blazers.

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Vegas Runner

INDIANA -5
UFC 156 PREMIUM PLAYS + PARLAY :

1.) J. ALDO -180
2.) A. OVEREEM -380
3.) J. FITCH -195
4.) IAN McCALL +220

5.) 4 FIGHTER PARLAY w/ PICKS ABOVE

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Executive : 600% W.Michigan -5

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4-STAR New Orleans +3.5 over MINNESOTA - With the Super Bowl coming up tomorrow, this is a game between two "bad" teams Vegas is overlooking. While the Hornets are playing their fourth game in five nights, Minnesota is unrested as well and has no depth. They've been the worst teams in the league the past three weeks and shouldn't be favored over anyone.
This is the final game of five-game road trip for New Orleans, having lost the past three. The Timberwolves are 0-7 ATS (-16.5 ppg) since November 23, 2004 when their opponent is playing in at least their fourth straight road game and has no rest.
They fell last night in Denver, 113-98. The Nuggets shot 52.4% from the field in that game. The Hornets are 9-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) since March 04, 2011 as a dog after a double digit road loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
While New Orleans had 19 assists, they also had 21 turnovers. The Hornets are 8-0 ATS (16.8 ppg) since December 28, 2011 with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they had more turnovers than assists.
Minnesota lost last night, 111-100 to the Lakers. They went 10-of-22 from threes in the game. The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since December 13, 2005 with no rest after a loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.
Luke Ridnour went 2-of-7 in the game with four points. The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since February 10, 2012 at home after a loss in which Luke Ridnour scored fewer than 10 points.
Minnesota lost to New Orleans 104-92 in January. The Hornets controlled the boards, 44-31 in that game. The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS (-5.0 ppg) since January 15, 2011 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they were out-rebounded by double-digits.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New Orleans 99, MINNESOTA 92
4-STAR PORTLAND -4 over Utah - These teams have two of the biggest home court advantages in the league and last night it was Utah's turn to get their home win. The line has rightfully shifted for tonight's game and we still like Portland at home here.
Utah has generally struggled coming off wins over Portland. The Jazz are 0-8 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since November 12, 1999 on the road after a home win against the Trailblazers.
Of course they aren't usually playing Portland against the next game. The next day rematch has favored the loser. Teams which are facing the same team they lost to yesterday are 66-48-1 ATS.
Last night's game was a low scorer with Utah winning 86-77. Portland scored 18 points less than expected in the game. The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since March 01, 2007 at home after a road loss in which their DPS was minus 15 points or less.
Nic Batum has struggled in the game. He went just 2-of-7 for five points in 38 minutes of action. The Trailblazers are 10-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since February 01, 2011 at home after losing the previous matchup in which Nicolas Batum shot worse than 33% from the field. Also, the Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since February 16, 2011 as a favorite after losing the previous matchup in which Nicolas Batum scored fewer than 10 points.
Lamarcus Aldridge had 16 points and 10 rebounds in the loss. The Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since February 18, 2012 after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Lamarcus Aldridge had a double double.
Al Jefferson topped him however with 21 points and 10 rebounds. The Jazz are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 13, 2010 with no rest after a win in which Al Jefferson had a double double.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PORTLAND 95, Utah 85
4-STAR Chicago +7 over ATLANTA - Both teams are banged up but people are focusing more on Chicago here. This is the game where their depth can shine. This is going to be such a low scoring game that this is further expands the value with this line.
Atlanta played last on Wednesday, winning 93-92 over Toronto. They held the Raptors to 38.8% shooting. The Hawks are 0-11 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since May 06, 2011 at home with at least one day of rest after a game in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
Al Horford led Atlanta's effort with 22 points. The Hawks are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since March 04, 2011 at home with at least a day of rest after a win in which Al Horford was the Hawks' high scorer.
Horford went 10-of-15 from the field in that game. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS (-4.3 ppg) since December 31, 2010 with at least a day of rest after a win at home in which Al Horford shot better than 66% from the field.
Jeff Teague struggled in that game however, going 3-of-11 for nine points. The Hawks are 0-5-1 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since April 15, 2012 at home after a win in which Jeff Teague scored fewer than 10 points.
When these teams played in January, it was a Chicago route, 97-58. They controlled the boards in that game, with a 59-39 edge. The Hawks are 0-8 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since May 10, 2010 at home when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they were out-rebounded by at least fifteen rebounds.
Luol Deng had a nice game there going 7-of-9 for 18 points. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since January 17, 2007 after winning the previous matchup at home in which Luol Deng took fewer than 10 shots. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: ATLANTA 85, Chicago 83

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total pleasure
under
Michigan

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Sports Money Profit System: (0-3 last night -8 units, +30 units YTD)

#1: Take Ohio State at -12 spread against Nebraska risking 3 Units. (7:00 pm)

#2: Take Iowa State at -4 spread against Baylor Bears risking 3 Units (8:00pm)

#3: Take NO Hornets at +3 spread against Minnesota risking 3 Units. (8:05 pm)

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Kelso

25 Wichita St
25 Michigan
10 Oklahoma
10 Florida

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Profitbets

30* Michigan +6
25* Indiana St -1
25* Oregon +3
20* Manchester United
20* Cavs/OKC ov 204.5
15* Duke -5.5
15* Utah St. ML
15* AZ -6.5
10* Santa Clara +6
10* Canadiens ML
10* Oilers ML

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Ray Falco

CBB

Canisius
South Dakota St
Over Michigan

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SweetJones writeup
Jazz/Blazers UNDER 193.5 LOCKED (x1)

I am going to be playing the UNDER in the Jazz/Blazers game in Portland. THese two teams just played last night with the game ending 86-77 Jazz. That's 163 points combined from the two teams. Both teams play again tonight on zero days rest and I am expecting another very low scoring game. Wesley Matthews is OUT for the Blazers tonight. Nicolas Batum has been complaining about his wrist affecting his shot and he has been off. Gordon Hayward is the 3rd leading scorer for the Jazz off the bench and he is OUT. Mo Williams is the 4th leading scorer for Utah and he is also OUT.

In yesterdays game, the highest scoring quarter was 47. You have to score 48.5 points a quarter to go OVER a total of 193.5. So, basically not 1 quarter of yesterdays game went OVER what it needed to actually hit the OVER. Now Wesley Matthews is OUT tonight and both teams have zero days rest. I can't see how there is a drastic change in the scoring just 24 hours later.

The biggest scoring issue yesterday was in the 2nd quarter and 4th quarter. This is because Portland has the worst bench in the NBA and Utah's bench is now terrible without Hayward. Utah's bench overall for the season is top 10 in scoring but in the last 3 games without Heyward the bench is now averaging just 30ppg. Portland's bench only gets 13ppg. In yesterdays game, they scored 42points total in the 2nd quarter and finished the game off with just 29 points in the 4th quarter. The teams really grew tired late in this game and it showed in their offense. I expect the game to happen tonight late in the game. I think they will probably score in the 180-185 range tonight.