2-8-13

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Beware NBA Teams Looking Ahead to All-Star Break
by Jason Logan

The NBA All-Star break puts the regular season on hold for four days as the best and brightest in the league are showcased.

This brief hiatus is a blessing to some teams and a burden for others. Teams with injury concerns or clubs stuck in a losing rut can sometimes get caught looking ahead to the break while squads building momentum see the four-day layoff as a nasty speed bump.

Here are three clubs who could lose focus as we head toward the All-Star Weekend on Feb. 15.

Los Angeles Clippers (35-16 SU, 28-23 ATS)
Los Angeles was able to snap a three-game skid with a win over lowly Orlando Wednesday despite having Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford and Chauncey Billups out with injuries.

The short-handed Clippers wrap up an eight-game road trip next week then host the Rockets and play the Lakers for Staples Center bragging rights just before the break. With a young core of players, and Griffin and Paul headed to the All-Star Game, it will be up to the veterans to keep this club focused in the coming week.

Brooklyn Nets (29-20 SU, 22-24-3 ATS)
Consistency has been the Nets’ biggest battle in their inaugural season in Brooklyn. They’ve gone 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and haven’t been able to find the momentum that sparked an 11-4 start to the year. The coaching change from Avery Johnson to P.J. Carlesimo has played its part in that as well as not having star PG Deron Williams at full strength.

Williams is averaging just under 12 points over the last four games (16.7 ppg on the season) and isn’t taking part in the All-Star festivities, giving him a chance to heal up. The break will be a reset for Brooklyn before the playoff push begins. The Nets' pre-ASG sked has them at Washington, home to San Antonio, at Indiana, and hosting Denver.

Chicago Bulls (29-19 SU, 20-28 ATS)
The Bulls have been waiting for this All-Star break since being eliminated from the playoffs last season. Chicago is not only looking forward to resting its thinning roster - Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah, Marco Belinelli, Kirk Hinrich are all nursing ailments – but the break gets the Bulls closer to the return of PG Derrick Rose. Rose is expected to return this month and would give Chicago a huge lift in the second half of the schedule.

The Bulls have battled to stay above water, leaning on defense to keep pace in the East. Chicago takes on three Western foes - at Denver, at Utah, vs. San Antonio - before visiting Boston before the break. The Bulls are 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS versus Western Conference teams this season.

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See Spot. See Spot bet: This Week's Best Spot Bet Opportunities

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead Spot

The Los Angeles Lakers are fighting for their season on their current seven-game road swing, taking a 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) record into Thursday’s stop in Boston – Game No. 5 on the annual “Grammy” trip. The Lakers actually find themselves in the rare “Lookahead Letdown” spot Friday, when they visit the lowly Charlotte Bobcats.

Los Angeles will be coming off a heated rivalry game with the Celtics and looking ahead to Sunday’s clash with the Miami Heat when they face the Bobcats. An aging roster and injuries to bigs Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol may have L.A. more focused on resting up for Miami.

Letdown Spot

The ACC is one of the tightest conferences in college hoops, with five teams in the hunt for the conference crown. Two of those programs are North Carolina State and Duke, which collide in Cameron Indoor Stadium Thursday night. The Wolfpack knocked off the Blue Devils at home back in January but haven’t won in Durham since 2007.

Following that showdown, NC State pays a visit to J.C. Littlejohn Coliseum to face the Clemson Tigers. Clemson may not be in the thick of the ACC race but the Tigers took the fight to the Wolfpack in their first meeting of the year, covering as 8.5-point road underdogs in a 66-62 loss on Jan. 20. NC State guard Lorenzo Brown is still a question mark this week (ankle).

Scheduling Spot

The Anaheim Ducks open a six-game road trip in Colorado Wednesday – not the best place to start an extended away swing due to the change in altitude from Anaheim to the Pepsi Center. The Ducks play three games in four nights, moving to Dallas and St. Louis Friday and Saturday before catching their breath for a few days.

Anaheim is back on the road in Chicago Tuesday, in Detroit Friday and closes this tough stretch of schedule at Nashville on Feb. 16. The Ducks have built a solid 6-1-0-1 record thanks to a home-heavy sked, playing five of those games inside the Honda Center. They’ve scored a franchise-record 29 goals in their first eight games but struggled to find the net in the role of visitors last season, averaging only 2.07 goals per road game – second worst in the NHL.

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Clippers Getting Healthy Just in Time for Showdown with Heat

The Los Angeles Clippers had all of their players in uniform and practicing Thursday for the first time this season, and could potentially have a full roster playing against the Miami Heat Friday night.

Forward Blake Griffin, who has sat out the past two games because of a strained hamstring, went through a light practice as did guard Jamal Crawford, who missed Wednesday night's tilt with a sore right shoulder.

Guards Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups also practiced together for the first time in over two months. Paul has missed nine consecutive games with a bruised right kneecap while Billups has only suited up in three games this season due to tendinitis in his left foot.

All four players are officially listed as game-time decisions Friday.

Heat F Chris Bosh has been battling the flu and is considered day-to-day.

The Clippers are just 3-7 SU (3-7 ATS) in their last 10 games and oddsmakers are suggesting a spread of Heat -6 with a 196 total for Friday night’s game.

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Rockets Keep Topping Sky-High NBA Totals

The Houston Rockets have one of the most suitable team names in all of sports. Houston, home to NASA’s Johnson Space Center, has been launching up shots and shooting for the moon all season.

The Rockets top the league in offensive pace (98.8 possessions per game), rank second in scoring (105.8 ppg), sit eighth in field goal percentage (45.9%) and caught the eye of NBA totals bettors with a record-tying display from beyond the arc this week.

Houston knocked down 23 3-pointers in a win over Golden State (23 of 40) Tuesday, playing over the 217-point number. In fact, the Rockets have topped the total in three of their last four outings and own a 28-23 over/under record heading into Friday’s tilt with Portland.

“Houston’s totals just creep up more than others after initial release on the day,” Aron Black of Bet365. “The inconsistency of their performances have made for good results, given we are normally weighed on the overs for their games.”

The Rockets have watched their game totals rise as the season has progressed. Over the last 10 games, Houston has been matched up against an average total of 208.7 points and hasn’t faced a sub-200 number since Jan. 18 (played over total of 195 at Indiana).

Part of those hefty totals has to do with Houston’s inability to stop foes on defense, giving up an average of 102.9 points a night. They were rolled by Miami Wednesday, losing 114-108 (playing over 206.5) and allowed the Heat to shoot 48.8 percent from the field. The Rockets are 27-24 SU and 27-23-1 ATS on the year.

“Houston will entertain some nights like (Tuesday) night, but so far, that’s about all they do,” says Black.

Oddsmakers have suggested a total of 207 points for Friday’s game versus the Trail Blazers. The Rockets are suggested 6.5-point home favorites.

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BONES BEST BET

NHL

Only one game on the board tomorrow in hockey, but we think this line is going to move the wrong way all day tomorrow.

We may send out the PL in this game some time tomorrow, but let's lock in this play right now.

Ducks ML -110 *1 Unit*
The Ducks have been playing amazing hockey, and any time we can get them at a PK price right now we are going to be looking into it. Dallas will be playing their 12th game of the season already. Most of their wins have come from some easy teams, the Ducks are no easy team. The Ducks are 7-2 ATS this year - with 4 of their 7 wins by 2 or more goals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Virginia (-7) Thursday.

Friday it's Columbia. The deficit is 85 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

-- Indiana won/covered its last five home games (10-5 last 15 HF).
-- Washington won seven of its last nine home games (10-6-2 AU). Nets won six of last nine road games (2-2 AF).
-- Lakers won six of their last eight games (1-5 last six AF).
-- Spurs won their last eleven games (13-8 AF).
-- Cavaliers won five of their last seven games (2-3 HF).
-- Knicks won five of their last six games (3-7 last 10 AF).
-- Heat won eight of its last ten games (8-5 last 13 HF).
-- Thunder won/covered their last six home games.
-- Rockets won five of their last seven games (9-1 last ten HF).
-- Jazz won four of its last five games. (6-2 last eight HF).

Cold Teams
-- Raptors lost five of last six games (5-2-1 last eight AU).
-- Bobcats lost eight of last nine games (4-7 last 11 HU).
-- Pistons lost five of their last six games (7-5 HU).
-- Magic lost their last 11 games (1-10 vs spread, 1-5 last six AU).
-- Hornets lost six of their last eight games (12-5 last 17 AU). Atlanta lost three of its last five games (6-12-1 HF).
-- Minnesota lost eight of its last nine games (2-5 HU).
-- Memphis lost three of its last four games (13-10-1 HF). Warriors lost their last two games, by 21-31 points (11-6-2 AU).
-- Banged-up Clippers lost seven of last ten games (5-2 AU).
-- Suns lost five of their last seven games (3-6-1 last ten AU).
-- Trailblazers lost five of last six road games (6-4 last ten AU).
-- Chicago lost three of its last four games (9-6 AU).

Totals
-- Five of last seven Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Brooklyn games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Charlotte games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 12-4-1 in last 17 San Antonio games.
-- Last four Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten New Orleans games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Minnesota games. Seven of last ten New York games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Memphis games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Portland games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Chicago games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Lakers are 3-6 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Bulls are 3-3 vs spread on road if they played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

-- Yale lost four of last five games vs Penn, losing eight of last nine trips to Philly, including last three, by 12-8-21 points. Bulldogs lost three of first four Ivy games, losing by 14-3-9 points- they run ball over 22.5% of time. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in Ivy League games where spread is 5 or less points. Quakers turn ball over 24.1% of time; they're 2-3 in last five games, after starting season 2-13, Two bad teams.
-- Brown split its four Ivy games, with both losses in OT; they're 2-5 in last seven games vs Princeton, losing last two visits to Jadwin, by 18-34 points. Tigers won six of last seven games, winning first three Ivy games by 12-17-6 points, allowing 59.3 ppg- they make 38% behind the arc. Brown is shooting just 62.6% from foul line. Ivy League double digit favorites are 1-4 against the spread.

-- Columbia lost its last three games, by 3-4-6 points, but they've won four in row vs Dartmouth, winning last four played here, by 13-12-7-6 points. Lions shoot 36.8% from arc, just 44.1% inside it. Dartmouth is 1-8 on road, with only win at #345 Longwood; Big Green is 2nd-to-last in country in experience. Ivy League double digit favorites are 1-4 against the spread. Seven of Columbia's nine wins are by 11+ points.
-- Harvard won its last four games vs Cornell, with three of four by 11+ points; Crimson won last two visits here, by 13-4 points. Harvard won its first four Ivy games, by 10-5-3-7 points, with two of last three going to OT. Cornell split its first four Ivy games, with two wins by total of five points, losses by 9-17. Ivy League home underdogs are 3-1 against the spread. Cornell turns ball over 21% of the time, not good.
-- Utah State won 16 of last 17 games with San Jose State, winning last four visits here, by 12-16-19-10 points. Aggies won four of six on WAC road, with last three wins on foreign soil by 10+ points. San Jose lost all seven games since suspending leading scorer Kinney (was 9-6 when got was suspended); they're 2-3 at home in WAC, with losses by 9-22-19 points. WAC home underdogs are 3-13 against the spread.

-- Loyola won last four games with Siena by 7-7-11-10 points; Saints won three of last four visits here, but are 4-4 in last eight games overall, after a 2-13 start. Siena turns ball over 23% of time, gets 13.4% of their shots blocked. Greyhounds won last game in double OT after losing two games before that- they're 4-2 at home in MAAC, with wins by 6-16-5-14 points. MAAC double digit home favorites are 5-2 against spread.
-- NC-Asheville beat VMI by 16 LY in Big South tourney final, after it had beaten Keydets by 9-3 points during regular season; Asheville is on 6-game win streak after its 8-10 start- they're 3-2 on Big South road, winning by 14-3-17 points. VMI won three of its four Big South home games, winning by 13-18-19 points- this is Keydets' first home game in 13 days. VMI shoots just 63.3% from foul line, as a team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Ducks won last four games, outscoring opponents 15-6. Dallas Stars won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- None.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Anaheim games stayed under the total.


Series records
-- Dallas Stars won six of last seven games against Anaheim.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/08/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 2716-896 (.752)
ATS: 1207-1250 (.491)
ATS Vary Units: 3667-3926 (.483)
Over/Under: 327-313 (.511)
Over/Under Vary Units: 352-380 (.481)

Atlantic Sun Conference
Northern Kentucky vs. LIPSCOMB: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Big South Conference
UNC Asheville 79, VMI 76

Ivy League
COLUMBIA 67, Dartmouth 53
Harvard 71, CORNELL 65
PENN 65, Yale 63
PRINCETON 68, Brown 52

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
LOYOLA (MD.) 72, Siena 56

Western Athletic Conference
Utah State 68, SAN JOSE STATE 60

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/08/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 475-231 (.673)
ATS: 371-351 (.514)
ATS Vary Units: 1036-917 (.530)
Over/Under: 377-347 (.521)
Over/Under Vary Units: 544-494 (.524)

WASHINGTON 94, Brooklyn 92
L.A. Lakers 105, CHARLOTTE 97
INDIANA 100, Toronto 87
ATLANTA 97, New Orleans 91
San Antonio 103, DETROIT 94
CLEVELAND 101, Orlando 95
MIAMI 100, L.A. Clippers 94
MEMPHIS 99, Golden State 94
HOUSTON 108, Portland 100
OKLAHOMA CITY 111, Phoenix 95
New York 101, MINNESOTA 97
UTAH 95, Chicago 93

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

02/08/13 Prediction

Season: 54-36 (.600)

Anaheim vs. DALLAS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Dartmouth at Columbia

The Lions look to bounce back from their 72-66 loss at Princeton and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games following a SU defeat. Columbia is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-11). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 8 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 825-826: Yale at Pennsylvania (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Yale 48.343; Pennsylvania 48.091 Dunkel Line: Even Vegas Line: Pennsylvania by 1 Dunkel Pick: Yale (+1)

Game 827-828: Brown at Princeton (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brown 48.690; Princeton 63.527 Dunkel Line: Princeton by 15 Vegas Line: Princeton by 12 Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-12)

Game 829-830: Dartmouth at Columbia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 42.869; Columbia 55.956 Dunkel Line: Columbia by 13 Vegas Line: Columbia by 11 Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-11)

Game 831-832: Harvard at Cornell (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 58.405; Cornell 52.428 Dunkel Line: Harvard by 6 Vegas Line: Harvard by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-4 1/2)

Game 833-834: Utah State at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 54.292; San Jose State 49.090 Dunkel Line: Utah State by 5 Vegas Line: Utah State by 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+6 1/2)

Game 835-836: Siena at Loyola-MD (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Siena 45.923; Loyola-MD 59.740 Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 14; 129 Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 12 1/2; 124 Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-12 1/2); Over

Game 841-842: NC-Asheville at VMI (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 54.687; VMI 48.014 Dunkel Line: NC-Asheville by 6 1/2; 156 Vegas Line: NC-Asheville by 4; 153 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NC-Asheville (-4); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

Anaheim at Dallas

The Ducks look to take advantage of a Dallas team that is coming off a 3-2 win over Edmonton and is 1-7 in its last 8 games following a victory. Anaheim is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 8 Time Posted 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Anaheim at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.396; Dallas 11.267 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-115); 5 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-115); Over