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4.5-STAR CHARLOTTE +4.5 over Boston - We understand that Boston comes into this game hot and that no one likes backing Charlotte but let's be realistic here. The Celtics are on no rest after a triple overtime game last night. Paul Pierce played 54 minutes last night. The chances of them showing up tonight are very unlikely. This game should be a pick at worst as the advantages sway towards Charlotte.
Boston played not one, but three overtimes last night but any teams with no rest off an overtime game is at a real disadvantage. Teams with no rest coming off an overtime win are 84-114-4 ATS.
Boston won despite shooting just 39.8% from the field and making five less baskets than Denver. The Celtics are 0-9 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since December 17, 2008 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game at home after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.
Of the 43 buckets they did make, 34 of them were assisted. The Celtics are 0-10 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since March 29, 2003 as a road favorite with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted.
Paul Pierce led Boston with a monster game, putting up 27 points, 14 boards and 14 assists. The Celtics are 0-6 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since December 29, 2010 on the road with no rest after a win in which Paul Pierce was the Celtics' high scorer.
Charlotte meanwhile shot just 30 in a loss to Philadelphia Saturday. Teams which shot less than 31.85% last game are 188-146-1 ATS. Also, the Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since April 10, 2005 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they shot less than 35% from the field.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CHARLOTTE 90, Boston 83
4-STAR MILWAUKEE -4 over Washington - Washington has proved itself to be quite a difficult team to play at home. They haven't established those chops on the road yet, and have still lost four straight road tilts. Until they show that ability to win on the road, we will still take such a short line with a solid team like Milwaukee here.
Washington is off a low scoring 89-74 win against Brooklyn Friday. The held the Nets to just 32.9% shooting in the game. The Wizards are 0-12 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since January 19, 2009 as a dog after a home win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
The 74 points allowed were 19 less than expected. The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since February 28, 2009 as a road dog after a home win in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less.
They held Brooklyn to such low scoring despite committing 25 fouls while drawing just 14. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since December 03, 1995 as a dog after a win in which they had at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent.
Brooklyn did not take full advantage though, going just 19-of-32 from the foul line. The Wizards are 0-8-1 ATS (-5.9 ppg) since December 02, 2005 with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Washington meanwhile tried just 11 free throws but made 10 of them. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 03, 2009 as a road dog after a double digit win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
The 89 points scored were also five points less than expected in that game. The Wizards are 0-8-2 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since January 19, 2009 on the road after a home win in which their DPS was negative. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE 104, Charlotte 93
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