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2 Star Selection
Baylor (+5) over KANSAS STATE (Rotation: 597)
16-Feb-13 04:00 PM Pacific
Baylor's 20 point win for us on Wednesday sets the Bears up in a 61-13-2 ATS road dog momentum situation tonight while Kansas State's 21 point loss at Kansas sets the Wildcats up in a 49-132-7 ATS negative momentum situation. Baylor has been a better team so far this season and my ratings favor Kansas State by only 3 1/2 points. Kansas State has been better at home (6-3 ATS), so I'll resist making this a higher rated game. I'll take Baylor in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +4 or more.
2 Star Selection
Pennsylvania (+1) over DARTMOUTH (Rotation: 601)
16-Feb-13 04:00 PM Pacific
Dartmouth has had one of the weakest home court advantages in the nation over the years and the Big Green are just 47-78-1 ATS at home since the '95-'96 season, including 6-13-1 ATS under their current coach. Dartmouth applies to a negative 16-65-2 ATS weak home court situation tonight and my ratings make this game a pick using a standard home court advantage (I get Penn by 4 using their road games against Dartmouth's home games). I'll take Pennsylvania in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -1 or better.
3 Star Selection
Murray State (-7) over EASTERN ILLINOIS (Rotation: 687)
16-Feb-13 04:00 PM Pacific
Murray State has a good starting 5 but they lack quality depth and the Racers tend to struggle as big favorites because their backups play more minutes in those games. That partially explains why Murray State is just 6-24-2 ATS as a favorite of 9 points or more the last 3 seasons, including 1-8 ATS this season. Murray State usually wins those games (27-6 straight up) but the Racers lost their game to SIU Edwardsville on Thursday night and that loss should assure that they won't look past this game. Murray State is 28-11 ATS in recent years when not favored by more than 8 points, including 17-2 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .625 or less - so the Racers tend to win and cover against mediocre or bad teams when the spread isn't too high. Eastern Illinois, meanwhile, is just 30-53-2 ATS at home in their history, including 6-22 ATS the last 3 seasons and my ratings favor Murray State by 9 points in this game. I'll take Murray State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and for 2-Stars up to -9 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -8 or less, 2-Stars up to -9.
3 Star Selection
Western Carolina (+7) over ELON (Rotation: 689)
16-Feb-13 04:00 PM Pacific
Elon has had to play without leading scorer and top defender Lucas Troutman the last two games (he sprained his ankle in the first minute at Furman and sat out in a 3 point win over Appalachian State). Elon barely won both games (by 4 points and 3 points) as favorites of 7 and 9 points and Elon applies to a negative 15-47-2 ATS situation that is based on those non-covering wins. My ratings would favor Elon by 6 points using all games but they're clearly not as good without Troutman, who was downgraded to doubtful a few hours ago, so we have line value to go along with a good situation. I'll take Western Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars down to points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at +6 or more, 2-Stars down to +5.
2 Star Selection
THE CITADEL (+19) over Davidson (Rotation: 694)
16-Feb-13 04:05 PM Pacific
Davidson is rolling along with a 13-1 conference record record after taking care of 2nd place Charleston on Thursday night. However, coming off of that big game and facing a Citadel team that they've already beaten 70-38 is likely to lead to a lack of intensity tonight and The Citadel applies to an 85-27-2 ATS situation that combines revenge with a bounce-back from a humiliating loss (they just lost by 21 at home to Georgia Southern). My ratings favor Davidson by 17 1/2 points, so the line is more than fair, and I'll take The Citadel in a 2-Star Best Bet at +18 points or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +18 or more.
2 Star Selection
Oakland (-8) over UMKC (Rotation: 695)
16-Feb-13 04:15 PM Pacific
Oakland is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite in recent years and they're starting to heat up a bit with 6 straight wins. UMKC is one of of the worst teams in the nation and they apply to a negative 27-71-2 ATS home dog angle tonight. My rating favor Oakland by 8 1/2 points with the standard letdown factored in, but there isn't likely to be a letdown here and I'll take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 or less.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -9 or less.
2 Star Selection
Pepperdine (+13.5) over SANTA CLARA (Rotation: 653)
16-Feb-13 07:00 PM Pacific
Pepperdine comes into this game with a little confidence after a couple of wins over bad teams and Santa Clara continues to struggle agaisnt the number at home. The Broncos are now just 3-9 ATS at home this season and 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 lined home games, so I don't mind taking a Pepperdine squad that applies to a very good 62-16-4 ATS big road underdog momentum situation. My ratings favor Santa Clara by only 12 1/2 points and I'll take Pepperdine in a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more and for 3-Stars at +14 or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +12 or more, 3-Stars at +14.
2 Star Selection
WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Oregon State (Rotation: 664)
16-Feb-13 08:00 PM Pacific
Washington has lost 7 of their last 8 games but the Huskies are a not so bad 4-4 ATS in those games and I expect them to raise their level of play for this revenge against the Beavers. Washington applies to a 168-92-4 ATS home revenge bounce-back situation and my ratings favor the Huskies by 5 1/2 points in this game. I'll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -5 or less.
2 Star Selection
UTAH STATE (-1.5) over New Mexico State (Rotation: 666)
16-Feb-13 08:00 PM Pacific
New Mexico State has won 12 straight games, including a 64-51 home win over Utah State, but the visiting Aggies are likely to have their winning streak snapped tonight by the host Aggies. Utah State applies to a 98-45-2 ATS home revenge situation while New Mexico State applies to a 48-190-2 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their long winning streak. The record of that angle is just 6-31-3 ATS if the home team has revenge, which is the case here, and my ratings favor Utah State by 2 1/2 points with New Mexico State not playing as well without suspended Tyrone Watson. Utah State has been without two of their top 3 scorers for the last 7 games but they are actually playing better (although I didn't adjust their rating upward). I'll take Utah State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -3 or less.
NFL
There are no NFL Best Bets at this time. I normally release my NFL plays on Fridays starting at 10AM Pacific so please check back then.
College Football
2 Star Selection
Baylor (+5) over KANSAS STATE (Rotation: 597)
16-Feb-13 04:00 PM Pacific
Baylor's 20 point win for us on Wednesday sets the Bears up in a 61-13-2 ATS road dog momentum situation tonight while Kansas State's 21 point loss at Kansas sets the Wildcats up in a 49-132-7 ATS negative momentum situation. Baylor has been a better team so far this season and my ratings favor Kansas State by only 3 1/2 points. Kansas State has been better at home (6-3 ATS), so I'll resist making this a higher rated game. I'll take Baylor in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +4 or more.
2 Star Selection
Pennsylvania (+1) over DARTMOUTH (Rotation: 601)
16-Feb-13 04:00 PM Pacific
Dartmouth has had one of the weakest home court advantages in the nation over the years and the Big Green are just 47-78-1 ATS at home since the '95-'96 season, including 6-13-1 ATS under their current coach. Dartmouth applies to a negative 16-65-2 ATS weak home court situation tonight and my ratings make this game a pick using a standard home court advantage (I get Penn by 4 using their road games against Dartmouth's home games). I'll take Pennsylvania in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -1 or better.
3 Star Selection
Murray State (-7) over EASTERN ILLINOIS (Rotation: 687)
16-Feb-13 04:00 PM Pacific
Murray State has a good starting 5 but they lack quality depth and the Racers tend to struggle as big favorites because their backups play more minutes in those games. That partially explains why Murray State is just 6-24-2 ATS as a favorite of 9 points or more the last 3 seasons, including 1-8 ATS this season. Murray State usually wins those games (27-6 straight up) but the Racers lost their game to SIU Edwardsville on Thursday night and that loss should assure that they won't look past this game. Murray State is 28-11 ATS in recent years when not favored by more than 8 points, including 17-2 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .625 or less - so the Racers tend to win and cover against mediocre or bad teams when the spread isn't too high. Eastern Illinois, meanwhile, is just 30-53-2 ATS at home in their history, including 6-22 ATS the last 3 seasons and my ratings favor Murray State by 9 points in this game. I'll take Murray State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and for 2-Stars up to -9 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -8 or less, 2-Stars up to -9.
3 Star Selection
Western Carolina (+7) over ELON (Rotation: 689)
16-Feb-13 04:00 PM Pacific
Elon has had to play without leading scorer and top defender Lucas Troutman the last two games (he sprained his ankle in the first minute at Furman and sat out in a 3 point win over Appalachian State). Elon barely won both games (by 4 points and 3 points) as favorites of 7 and 9 points and Elon applies to a negative 15-47-2 ATS situation that is based on those non-covering wins. My ratings would favor Elon by 6 points using all games but they're clearly not as good without Troutman, who was downgraded to doubtful a few hours ago, so we have line value to go along with a good situation. I'll take Western Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars down to points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at +6 or more, 2-Stars down to +5.
2 Star Selection
THE CITADEL (+19) over Davidson (Rotation: 694)
16-Feb-13 04:05 PM Pacific
Davidson is rolling along with a 13-1 conference record record after taking care of 2nd place Charleston on Thursday night. However, coming off of that big game and facing a Citadel team that they've already beaten 70-38 is likely to lead to a lack of intensity tonight and The Citadel applies to an 85-27-2 ATS situation that combines revenge with a bounce-back from a humiliating loss (they just lost by 21 at home to Georgia Southern). My ratings favor Davidson by 17 1/2 points, so the line is more than fair, and I'll take The Citadel in a 2-Star Best Bet at +18 points or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +18 or more.
2 Star Selection
Oakland (-8) over UMKC (Rotation: 695)
16-Feb-13 04:15 PM Pacific
Oakland is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite in recent years and they're starting to heat up a bit with 6 straight wins. UMKC is one of of the worst teams in the nation and they apply to a negative 27-71-2 ATS home dog angle tonight. My rating favor Oakland by 8 1/2 points with the standard letdown factored in, but there isn't likely to be a letdown here and I'll take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 or less.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -9 or less.
2 Star Selection
Pepperdine (+13.5) over SANTA CLARA (Rotation: 653)
16-Feb-13 07:00 PM Pacific
Pepperdine comes into this game with a little confidence after a couple of wins over bad teams and Santa Clara continues to struggle agaisnt the number at home. The Broncos are now just 3-9 ATS at home this season and 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 lined home games, so I don't mind taking a Pepperdine squad that applies to a very good 62-16-4 ATS big road underdog momentum situation. My ratings favor Santa Clara by only 12 1/2 points and I'll take Pepperdine in a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more and for 3-Stars at +14 or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +12 or more, 3-Stars at +14.
2 Star Selection
WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Oregon State (Rotation: 664)
16-Feb-13 08:00 PM Pacific
Washington has lost 7 of their last 8 games but the Huskies are a not so bad 4-4 ATS in those games and I expect them to raise their level of play for this revenge against the Beavers. Washington applies to a 168-92-4 ATS home revenge bounce-back situation and my ratings favor the Huskies by 5 1/2 points in this game. I'll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -5 or less.
2 Star Selection
UTAH STATE (-1.5) over New Mexico State (Rotation: 666)
16-Feb-13 08:00 PM Pacific
New Mexico State has won 12 straight games, including a 64-51 home win over Utah State, but the visiting Aggies are likely to have their winning streak snapped tonight by the host Aggies. Utah State applies to a 98-45-2 ATS home revenge situation while New Mexico State applies to a 48-190-2 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their long winning streak. The record of that angle is just 6-31-3 ATS if the home team has revenge, which is the case here, and my ratings favor Utah State by 2 1/2 points with New Mexico State not playing as well without suspended Tyrone Watson. Utah State has been without two of their top 3 scorers for the last 7 games but they are actually playing better (although I didn't adjust their rating upward). I'll take Utah State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -3 or less.
NFL
There are no NFL Best Bets at this time. I normally release my NFL plays on Fridays starting at 10AM Pacific so please check back then.
College Football
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