2-17-13

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Louisville
USC

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Frank Patron


20,000 Unit Move


Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.5 over Iowa

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Penguins won seven of their last nine games.
-- Dallas Stars won five of their last six games.
-- Blackhawks won five of their last six games. Los Angeles won its last two games, allowing one goal in each game.
-- Washington won its last three games, scoring 15 goals. Rangers won three of last four games, with last two going to SO.
-- Canucks won six of their last seven games. St Louis won first two games of this road trip, scoring 4-5 goals.

Cold teams
-- Sabres are 3-5 in their last eight games.
-- Winnipeg lost six of its last eight games. Bruins lost last two games, allowing four goals each game.
-- Flames lost three of their last four games.
-- Red Wings lost their last two games, allowing nine goals. Minnesota lost five of its last seven games.

Totals
-- Three of last four games for both Penguins/Sabres stayed under total.
-- Last five Winnipeg games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Calgary games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Detroit's last eight games.
-- Last three Ranger games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-0-1 in last nine St Louis-Vancouver games.

Series records
-- Penguins won eight of last ten games against Buffalo.
-- Home team won last nine Boston-Winnipeg games.
-- Flames won six of last nine games against Dallas.
-- Kings lost eight of last eleven games against Chicago.
-- Red Wings won seven of last eight games against Minnesota.
-- Rangers beat Washington in seven games in LY's playoffs; last six games were all decided by a single goal.
-- Blues lost six of last nine visits to Vancouver.

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CBB

-- Penn State is 0-12 in Big Dozen, with one of five road losses by more than 18 points. Michigan lost three of its four games, all vs teams ranked in top 13; they drop way down in class here, facing Penn State squad they've won six of last seven against, winning last two visits here, by 7-18 points. Five of Wolverines' eight league wins are by 15 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites of 13+ points are 8-5 vs spread.
-- Ohio State won three of last four games vs Wisconsin; their 58-52 win here LY ended losing skid here at 7+ games, with five of last six losses in Madison by 6 or less points. Buckeyes (-6) beat Wisconsin 58-49 Jan 29 at home, in game where Badgers didn't take any foul shots (Ohio St. was 9-12). OSU is 3-3 in conference road games, with losses by 19-3-2 points. Big Dozen home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-6 vs spread.
-- Louisville (-18) hammered South Florida 64-38 Jan 12; it was 38-15 at half, as Cardinals beat USF for 11th time in last 12 meetings- they won last five visits here, with four wins by 14+. Big East home underdogs are 14-17 vs spread, 2-4 if getting 8+ points. Bulls lost last seven games in a row, losing last three at home, by 8-23-10 points. Louisville lost three of last four road games, with only win in that span by 20 at Rutgers.
-- Milwaukee (+1) beat Cleveland State 69-57 at home Jan 17, making 12 of 25 behind arc in only win for Panthers in 15-game span vs D-I teams; home side won last 12 series games. Milwaukee lost last five visits here, by 10-9-1-4-26 points- they are 0-6 on Horizon road, with five losses by 10+ points. Horizon home favorites of 7 or less points are 6-11 vs spread. Cleveland State lost last three games, allowing 79.3 ppg.
-- Green Bay (-7) beat Youngstown State 67-58 at home Jan 17, holding Penguins to 30.5% from floor, 27.8% inside arc; Phoenix won seven of last nine series games, but lost last two visits here, by 30-17. Green Bay is 8-3 in last 11 games, winning three of last four on road. Horizon home underdogs of 5 or less points are 9-7 vs spread. Youngstown won five of last six home games, with only loss in triple OT to Ill-Chicago.

-- Minnesota (-10) beat Iowa 62-59 at home two weeks ago; 7th win in last nine series game for Gophers, who hit 54.5% inside arc, but none of their subs even took a shot in 32 minutes of action. Iowa won last three home games, by 4-9-14 points; 7 of their 12 league games were decided by 4 or less points. Big Dozen home teams are 11-14 if spread was 6 or less points. Gophers lost their last four away games.
-- Arizona (-19) snuck by Utah 60-57 Jan 5, despite shooting 36% from floor; Wildcats are 3-0 vs Utes in Pac-12 games, winning 77-51 in LY's win here. Arizona lost last two games after a 20-2 start; they're 4-2 on Pac-12 road, losing at Oregon/Colorado. Utah is 3-9 in league but beat Buffs/ASU in last two home games. Pac-12 home underdogs are 11-4 vs spread. Three of last four Arizona games went over the total.
-- Miami has 3-game lead in ACC with 11-0 record, winning road games by 13-9-1-9-1-6 points; their 76-73 win over Clemson LY ended 5-game skid vs Tigers. Miami lost last four visits here, by 4-10-8-7 points. Four of last five Miami games went over total. ACC home underdogs are 15-5 vs spread. Clemson lost three of last four games, but won four of its last five at home- their home losses are by 5 (FSU), 1 (NC State).
-- Northwestern (+10) won 68-54 at Illinois Jan 17, making 8-15 on arc, 26-31 on foul line; Wildcats are 4-2 in last six series games, winning two of last three played here, which were decided by total of 7 points. Illini won its last three games, beating Indiana/Minnesota after 3-8 skid- they are 2-4 on road, beating Gophers/Nebraska. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-7. Wildcats lost four of their last five games.
-- James Madison (-1.5) beat Delaware 64-50 Jan 23, holding Blue Hens to 28.9% from floor in its third series win in last four games. Dukes split last four visits here, are 6-2 in last eight games overall, but they're 1-5 in last six road games. CAA home favorites of 6 or less points are 11-17 vs spread. Delaware won six of last seven games, winning last two by hoop each- they won last three home games, by 10-15-2 points.

-- Wichita State (-8) beat Illinois State 74-62 Jan 16, holding Redbirds to 33% from floor, Shockers' 7th win in last eight series game, but lone loss was 65-64 in LY's MVC tourney. Shockers are 10-4 in Valley, but lost last two road games. Seven of last nine Wichita games stayed under total. MVC home teams are 21-5 vs spread if number is 5 or less points. ISU won seven of its eight games since the loss at Wichita.
-- Cal (+1) won 72-64 at USC Jan 5; Trojans were 2-11 from arc, 8-18 at foul line in third straight series loss (by 4-26-8 points). Bears won four of last five games, won last four at home- they were up 47-22 at half vs UCLA Thursday. USC won last four games (three by 4 or less points); they've lost four of last five visits here. Four of last five Cal games went under total. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 8-21 vs spread.
-- Appalachian State (-5.5) beat NC-Greensboro 83-70 at home Jan 14, making 28-34 on foul line- they avenged 65-55 loss to Spartans in LY's SoCon tourney. ASU's last four visits here were all decided by 6 or less points, with two going to OT. SoCon home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-8 vs spread. UNCG lost four of its last five games, with only win over #338 Furman. ASU lost five of its last six on road.
-- Niagara (-8.5) outscored Manhattan 38-13 from foul line in 64-60 win at home Jan 19; Eagles were 38-49, Jaspers 13-20 on charity stripe in a game where Manhattan also turned ball over 20 times. Jaspers won last four games after starting season 6-15. Niagara lost three of its last four games; their last three wins are all by 3 or less points. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-13 against the spread.
-- Marist is 7-19, but its last six games were all decided by 6 points or less; Red Foxes (+2.5) lost 64-58 at home to Rider Feb 3, making 11-20 on foul line. Broncs won 10 of last 11 games vs Marist, winning four in row in this gym, by 11-4-14-13 points. Foxes' last two road games both went to OT. Rider won three of its last four games. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 12-7 against the spread.

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Vegas Sports Informer 2/17/13 All Star Game: East / West Over

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MajorCovers

Over Clemson

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BIG AL's 100% PERFECT NCAA HOOPS ROADKILL WINNER!

Game Date/Time: 2/17/13 1:00 pm
Our Selection: Wisconsin Opponent: Ohio St. Line: -4 Rating: Opinion
Analysis: At 1 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Ohio St., as the Buckeyes fall into a negative 39-97 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off a win, that are playing an opponent with same-season revenge. Earlier this season, Wisky went into Columbus, and came out on the short end of the stick. But look for the Badgers to turn the tables on Ohio State in Madison this afternoon. Wisconsin is a super 21-7 ATS at home off a pointspread win when playing with same season revenge. And the Buckeyes are a poor 33-43 ATS off a win when playing a foe with revenge from an earlier loss in the season. In this series, the revenging team is 7-0 ATS the last 7, and 25-8 ATS since 1991. Lay the points with Wisconsin.
BIG AL's SLAPSHOT CLUB: NHL TOTALS WINNER; 24-13!

Game Date/Time: 2/17/13 9:05 pm
Our Selection: Blues/Canucks 'under' Line: 5.5 Rating: 3*
Analysis: At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues and Vancouver Canucks 'under' the total. Last season the Blues had by far the best defense in the NHL, being the only team in the league to allow an average of less than two goals per game, and although this season, the goals-against number is much different, this is still a team that prides itself on defense, especially when it plays Vancouver. This season, it seems like the Canucks have assumed that mantle as Vancouver has allowed a league-low 23 goals in its first 12 contests, or an average of just 1.92 per game. Last season, these two clubs played four times, and there was a total of 15 goals scored (an average of less than four per game) and you can expect more of that tonight. Once again, Vancouver's All Star net-minder, Roberto Luongo is proving to be one of the best goalies in the game in recent memory. So far, the Canucks big man between the pipes is leading the league with a 1.45 Goals-against average and is second with a .943 saves percentage. The under is 8-2-2 in Vancouver's last 12 overall and 10-2-4 in the last 16 meetings of these two. Take the 'under.'

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Scott Spreitzer | CBB SidesSun, 02/17/13 - 10:00 PM

double-dime bet
825 Southern California 7.0 (-110) 5Dimes vs 826 California
Analysis: I'm taking the points with USC on Sunday night. The Trojans have covered five straight in Berkeley and I expect another tonight. This is a much different looking USC team than the one Cal beat in Los Angeles on January 5. Interim Coach Bob Cantu has loosened the reigns on USC's athletes since the firing of the micro-manging Kevin O'Neill. The Trojans were not coming anywhere close to their potential under their former coach, with several players sitting the bench rather than getting the playing time they deserved, while one or two others, including J.T. Terrell were always threatened with "pine time" if they made too many mistakes. The Cantu version will play at a quicker tempo. They will attack the basket without fear of being yanked off the court. The players have responded with a four-game winning streak. In fact, they're a grand total of just seven points away from a 7-1 SU record under Cantu. Mike Montgomery's Bears are playing solid basketball, also. But the Trojans have the athletes to give Cal fits - and I belie„ve they will. Cal is off back-to-back wins over UCLA and Arizona, but because of those wins, they have been installed too big of a favorite according to my power ratings. The Bears are 1-7 ATS at home against teams with a losing road record. Meanwhile, USC is on a 3-0-1 ATS run overall, and again, they're on a 5-0 ATS run in Berkeley (15-1-1 ATS combined spots). I'm grabbing the points with USC on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.


Pick Made: Feb 17 2013 1:13AM PST

Scott Spreitzer | NHL TotalSun, 02/17/13 - 9:05 PM

double-dime bet
63 STL / 64 VAN UNDER 5.5 5Dimes
Analysis: I'm playing the Blues & Canucks to finish Under the total on Sunday night. Roberto Luongo is expected to be between the pi„pes for Vancouver tonight and he has been nothing short of a granite wall posting a 1.45 GAA and a .943 save percentage, and he's allowed a grand total of just 4 goals in his last 4 starts. These teams have combined for 5 goals or less in each of their last 9 meetings, averaging just 4.33 goals per game and they are 10-2-4 to the Under in their last 16 meetings, overall. The Blues scored 5 goals in a win over Calgary last time on ice, but they're 23-9-5 to the Under after scoring at least 5 goals in their previous game. Now they go from facing the league's 28th-ranked team in goals allowed per game to the stone-wall that is Luongo. The Canucks are on a 4-0 Under run against teams that scored at least 5 goals in their previous game, so they're used to shutting down hot attacks. They're 8-2-2 to the Under in their last 12 overall, and 17-5-4 Under when playing on one day of rest. More of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Blues & Canucks on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Pick Made: Feb 17 2013 1:41AM PST

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GamingToday’s Consensus Picks February 17, 2013 6:14 AM by Richard Saber

NBA All Star Game

East/West Under 295½

NCAA Basketball

Michigan -22½

Iowa -1

Miami Florida -6

Illinois -2½

Wichita State +1½

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Best Weekend Wagers with Weekend Warrior February 17, 2013 6:41 AM by Mark Mayer

NCAA Basketball

Northwestern +3

Manhattan -2

Utah +9

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Paul Leiner:

1500* CBB Miami FL -6

100* CBB Iowa -1

50* CBB Over 118.5 Louisville/So Florida

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Daily NHL Shots on Goal February 17, 2013 6:45 AM by Nick Pellegrino

Buffalo Sabres (+120), vs. Pittsburgh

St. Louis Blues (+125), at Vancouver

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Dave Price

7* Louisville +14

6* Arizona -9
6* Clemson +6.5

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SPORTS WAGERS

CALIFORNIA -7 over Southern Cal

Both teams have identical 7-5 conference records so it might make these points being offered look rather appealing. Not so, as identical in talent they are not. The Trojans are imposters. Their 7-5 record is the result of them beating every team below them in the standings. USC has played five ranked teams this season and were defeated by all of them. Its best win this year came against UCLA in OT by four points. This visitor doesn’t excel in any area and we can’t even say they’re good in any one area. They’re a pedestrian team with an unimpressive résumé.

The Golden Bears résumé is much more impressive than USC’s. They’ve won four of their past five games with three of those victories occurring against the top three clubs in the PAC-12. California defeated #10 Oregon by 4, they went into #7 Arizona and won by eight and capped it off with a 13-point win over UCLA. Suddenly, they’re a bubble team and if they run the table, the committee has to consider them for an at-large bid. The Bears are also a threat for an automatic bid should they win the conference tournament. The Golden Bears went into Southern Cal on January 5 and defeated the Trojans by eight points. The Bears were not in top form at that time but they are now. With the stakes higher and Cal on a roll, they should have little trouble disposing of this inferior opponent.


ILLINOIS STATE -2 over Wichita State

We’ve previously talked about the Redbirds of Illinois State being one of the most undervalued squads in the country. Even with a mediocre 7-7 conference mark and 16-10 overall record, that still holds true. The Redbirds are now a small home favorite over Missouri Valley leader Wichita State, a team that defeated ISU back on January 16 by 12 points to put the Redbirds in a 0-6 hole in its first six MVC games.

What a difference a month can make. The Redbirds now sit at 6-7 in Valley play. One of their recent wins came at #16 Creighton as an eight-point dog. Over their past seven games, the Redbirds are scoring more points per possession than any team in Division I basketball. Jackie Carmichael and Tyler Brown are thriving as an inside-outside combination, one that is proving very challenging for opposing defenses to slow down. Out of 347 Division I schools, the Redbirds rank 24th in the nation in points scored, 25th in assists per games and 39th in FG percentage. Illinois State’s only chance of reaching the NCAA tournament consists of winning the Missouri Valley tournament (held annually in St. Louis). That's going to be a tall order but they’re playing the best basketball of any Valley team right now and this bargain price appears to be unaware of that.

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Gold Sheet key releases:
Michigan
Illinois St.

All Star game:East 156-148