2-22-13

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Saint Louis at Butler: What Bettors Need to Know

Saint Louis at Butler (-2.5)

No. 15 Butler is one of two ranked teams in the Atlantic 10 – along with No. 24 Virginia Commonwealth – but neither team has been able to figure out Saint Louis. The Bulldogs will take one final shot at the conference leaders Friday when they host the Billikens. Saint Louis, which holds a half-game lead over the Bulldogs and Rams, began the conference season 1-2 but has been the best team in the league since.

Much like the Billikens’ first meeting against Butler – a 75-58 home victory on Jan. 31 – Saint Louis used stifling defense to defeat VCU on Tuesday and won its eighth straight game, improving to 2-0 against the more highly-regarded schools in the Atlantic 10. The Bulldogs, who are 5-1 since their loss to the Billikens, are 13-1 at Hinkle Fieldhouse and figure to improve on their dreadful 23-turnover performance in the first meeting.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU

ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (20-5, 9-2 Atlantic 10): Following the loss to the Billikens in January, Butler coach Brad Stevens said, "It was an absolute joy to watch one team play. The problem was, it wasn't the team I coached." St. Louis enjoys the conference’s stingiest scoring defense (57.9) and ranks second in the A-10 with 11.4 turnovers per game. The Billikens held VCU’s conference-leading offense 16 points below its season average and became only the second team this season to commit fewer than 10 turnovers against the Rams’ vaunted pressure defense.

ABOUT BUTLER (22-5, 9-3): Rotnei Clarke continued his scoring spree in Tuesday’s win and is averaging 18.9 points since his return from a neck injury eight games ago, leading his team in scoring each time. The Bulldogs are 14-0 when Khyle Marshall (9.9 points) scores in double figures, but the junior forward endured one of the worst performances of his career in the first meeting, scoring two points in 10 minutes before fouling out. Butler has outrebounded 10 of its last 11 opponents. Stevens is two wins shy of tying Pittsburgh’s Jamie Dixon (2004-09) for the most wins by a coach in his first six seasons in Division I history.

TRENDS:

* The over is 5-1 in the Billikens’ last six games.
* Saint Louis is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games.
* The under is 4-1 in Butler’s last five games.
* The Bulldogs have only covered once in their last four games.

TIP-INS:

1. Saint Louis is 3-1 against top-25 opponents, but has never defeated four ranked foes in the same season.

2. Butler is 82-12 at Hinkle Fieldhouse under Stevens.

3. All eight of the victories during the Billikens’ winning streak are by double digits – a first in their 97-year history.

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Four College Hoops Teams on the Brink of Quitting

Something is rotten in the state of Mississippi. Starkville, Mississippi to be more exact.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs haven’t won since January 5 – a string of 11 straight losses – and first-year head coach Rick Ray is captaining a sinking ship that is minus a few lifeboats, with players bailing right and left.

He recently suspended second-leading scorer Jalen Steele, who returned in Wednesday’s loss to Alabama, and cut ties with forward Roquez Johnson, who started eight games, for violating team rules.

Fading MSU during its 11-game skid would have made you a pretty penny, with the Bulldogs posting a 3-8 ATS mark in that span. However, like most trends in sports betting, that value only lasts so long.

But don’t worry. There are more teams with one foot out the door on this season – some that were expected to compete in their conference and make the cut for the NCAA. With only a few weeks left on the schedule, expect these four programs to pack it in early.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (18-9 SU, 13-11-1 ATS)

It wasn’t supposed to be this way for the Golden Gophers, who were a live underdog in the Big Ten entering the year. Things started off well enough, with Minnesota putting in a strong non-conference effort and opening Big Ten play with three straight wins.

Since then, the Gophs are just 3-7 SU and head coach Tubby Smith is beginning to feel the heat. An upcoming matchup versus No. 1 Indiana could be the straw that breaks the Gophers’ back.

Oregon State Beavers (13-13 SU, 12-10-0 ATS)

The most notable thing Craig Robinson has done in this past month is photobomb his brother in-law, President Barak Obama, during his inauguration. As for his day job, the Oregon State head coach is just plain bombing.

The Beavers have just three wins in their last 10 games and have suffered crushing defeats during that span, watching leads disappear late into games. Those types of losses weigh on a veteran squad that has seen the same things happen each year of Robinson’s four-year tenure.

Nevada Wolf Pack (12-13 SU, 9-13-2 ATS)

You can’t blame Nevada head coach David Carter for his recent outburst following the Wolf Pack’s fifth loss in the last six games – the MWC is beast this year. Carter lashed out at his team following a late-game collapse in an overtime loss to Fresno State saying, “Next year there’s going to be some changes. You had your chance.” He called the defeat the low point of his 14-year career in Reno.

Nevada was expected to run among the top teams in the Mountain West but even with a roster packed with upperclassmen, the Wolf Pack have fallen way short. Carter isn’t likely going to lose his job but he is in danger of losing his team. There’s also a good chance he’ll lose his remaining games, which all come against the who’s-who in the MWC.

Florida State Seminoles (14-12 SU, 9-14-1 ATS)

Florida State was another program with positive expectations entering the season. Some preview publications tabbed them as a Top-25 team despite the fact they lost four starters from last season. But with those starters went FSU’s toughness.

Leonard Hamilton teams aren’t used to getting pushed around. The Seminoles, usually among the elite in defending and rebounding, are allowing 68 points a night (218th) and are weak on the glass (316th), which has become the bane of their ACC existence. If FSU’s young bucks aren’t buying into Hamilton’s philosophies by now, they are never going to get it.

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Oddsmakers Keep Piling Points on Miserable Magic
by Jason Logan

There’s nothing magical about what’s happening in Orlando these days.

The Orlando Magic have just one win in their last 16 games and have managed to cover the spread just twice during this extended slump, falling to 15-39 SU (22-31-1 ATS) and flirting with the NBA’s worst overall record.

Orlando showed promise early in the year, getting off to a 12-13 SU start while posting a 13-11-1 ATS mark. Ever since a four-game winning streak in mid-December, the Magic have floundered.

They’re 3-26 SU and 9-20 ATS in their past 29 games heading into Friday’s road date with the Memphis Grizzlies. Oddsmaker have Orlando tabbed as an 11-point underdog in Memphis, which would be their fifth-highest spread of the year.

“You can see how bad they are, with all the injuries, and they’re just not competitive. But there is a breaking point,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service the Sports Club, told Covers. “You can’t make them 20-point dogs just to get action. There are certain teams that just can’t win but there is a breaking point for bettors.”

Orlando was providing some value when tabbed as a double-digit underdog this season. Before Wednesday, the Magic were 6-1 ATS when oddsmakers piled on the points. However, they may have hit the tipping point and failed to cover the 11.5 points given to them at Dallas Wednesday, losing 111-96.

The Magic were active at the trade deadline, shipping out guard J.J. Redick to the Bucks along with teammates Gustavo Ayon and Ish Smith for two promising young players – Tobias Harris and Doron Lamb – and veteran point guard Beno Udrih.

Orlando also shipped forward Josh McRoberts to Charlotte in exchange for forward Hakim Warrick and an undisclosed amount of cash. The Magic are expected to waive Warrick on Friday prior to the game.

To make matters worse, the Magic may be without veteran point guard Jameer Nelson for a while after he suffered a strained patellar tendon in Wednesday’s loss. The team is already missing small forward Hedo Turkoglu (drug violation), big man Glen Davis (broken foot) and is still waiting for Al Harrington (staph infection) to debut.

“We’ll just keep shading them higher and higher until there is a breaking point,” says Korner. “(Nelson) is a good player and makes things run there. Especially with a team like Orlando, the worse they are the more valuable he is.”

The Magic are 6-13 ATS in the last 19 meetings with the Grizzlies, including a 2-8 ATS record in their last 10 trips to Memphis.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WGC - Accenture Match Play
by Matt Fargo

Round Two

Round 1 certainly did not go as planned, for me and for the tournament. A snow delay took out most of the day on Wednesday and then a lengthy delay Thursday morning meant just the first round would only be completed with no second round matches starting until Friday. The delay though halted play in Round 1 with two matches unable to finish. The tournament will try and get back on the scheduled time but not until Saturday when Round 3 and Round 4 will be played back-to-back.

There was not a ton of drama early on. Sergio Garcia won in 20 holes in Match 1 but after that, 11 of the next 13 matches didn't make it past #17 with seven of those decided even before that. The big early upset was Russell Henley defeating Charl Schwartzel 1 up in Match 5. Schwartzel busted a lot of brackets as he was playing arguably the best of anyone in the field but he was 2 down after two, eventually got it back to AS after 11 but then lost the next two holes and could not recover.

The favorites won nine of the first 16 matches which is about the average in this event. It was the second half of the first round matches where the real excitement and drama took place though, namely the number one seeds. Louis Oosthuizen held off Richie Ramsay 2 and 1 but Luke Donald was in a dogfight with Marcel Siem as he was up two holes after the front then lost three straight to fall down one but birdied #13 to get it back to AS. He eventually won with a birdie on 18.

The same fortunes cannot be said about the other number one seeds and the two top ranked players in the world. Rory McIlroy, the overall number one seed, lost to fellow countryman Shane Lowry 1 up. He opened up a two-hole lead after four holes but he lost five holes in an eight-hole stretch and never caught back up, eventually losing on 18. Tiger Woods and Charles Howell III had one of the best matches of the day with no lead greater than one hole until CHIII went two up after #16 and closed Woods out on #17.

It was the first time since 2002 when the top two seeds were eliminated after the first round.

Listed are five Second Round Matchup Best Bets (ALL for 2 Units):

Match 33: Nicolas Colsaerts +120 over Justin Rose

Colsaerts took advantage of poor play from Bill Haas on Wednesday to take a 3 up lead through eight holes before play was suspended. He parred all eight holes Thursday and easily won 5 and 4. He lost in the first round here last year but won the Volvo Match Play last season. Rose had trouble keeping the lead against K.J. Choi but snuck out a 2 and 1 win. He has advanced past the second round only once in seven previous appearances.

Match 34: Matt Kuchar -105 over Sergio Garcia

Sergio is a great match play player but he had to grind one out Friday against Thongchai Jaidee as his competitor won two of the last three holes to force extra holes but he eventually won after 20 holes. Matt Kuchar had a stress free first round match as it was back and forth early but he won 7, 9,10 and 11 to win going away. Kuchar is now 10-3 in this event and looks to keep the momentum rolling from his run into the semis last year.

Match 35: Tim Clark -110 over Thorbjorn Olesen

Clark pulled away from Adam Scott with wins on #16 and #17 to take the match 2 and 1. Scott missed a very makeable putt on #17 that would have sent the match to the final hole. Clark is a veteran in this event that could make some noise. Olesen defeated Jamie Donaldson 3 and 2 but not a lot can be taken from that as both were rookies coming in. Olesen finished two over through 16 holes so he certainly did not play well.

Match 41: Robert Garrigus +120 over Louis Oosthuizen

I was very impressed with Garrigus as he took out Branden Grace 4 and 3. He won the first three holes, built a five-hole lead and had no pressure on him thanks to six birdies. Now he goes from big favorite to underdog. Oosthuizen won 2 and 1 over Richie Ramsay but it wasn't easy as he was down 2 after #11 before winning four straight holes to close it out. It was more of a Ramsay loss than an Oosthuizen win though.

Match 48: Peter Hanson +125 over Webb Simpson

Simpson won 5 and 4 over David Lynn but he didn't play particularly well. Lynn shot a two over 38 on the front and was four over through #13 before conceding. Simpson had five birdies but also had three bogeys. Hanson was two down at the turn but won five of the first six holes on the back to win 3 and 2 over Thomas Bjorn. Hanson is now 4-1 his last five matches here.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Tennessee Tech (-10 1/2) Thursday.

Friday it’s Yale. The surplus is 40 sirignanos.

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Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -130 over San Jose Sharks
(System Record: 18-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 18-13

Basketball Crusher
Butler -1 over St. Louis
(System Record: 64-3, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 64-45-1

Soccer Crusher
Estudiantes + San Lorenzo UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 360-14, lost last game)
Overall Record: 360-313-42

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Pacers won seven of their last nine games (6-2 last eight HF). Detroit won four of its last six games (5-10 last 15 AU).
-- Raptors won five of their last six games (8-6 HU).
-- Nets won last four games, three by 3 or less points or in OT (7-3-1 last 11 HF).
-- Mavericks won four of last five games (7-2 last nine AU).
-- Grizzlies won their last five games (15-11-1 HF).
-- Spurs won 16 of their last 17 games (5-7 last 12 AF).
-- Lakers won five of last six home games (7-11 last 18 HF).

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost its last two games, scoring 85-88 points. Nuggets lost three of their last four games (6-5 AF).
-- Knicks lost last three games, scoring 88-91-91 points (3-7-1 last 11 as an AF).
-- Charlotte lost eight of its last ten games (6-9 last 15 HU). Bulls lost five of their last seven games (4-4 AF, 0-3 last three).
-- Rockets lost four of last five road games (7-1 last eight AU).
-- Atlanta lost three of its last four home games (6-13-2 HF). Kings lost seven of their last nine games (4-7 last 11 AU).
-- Hornets lost last two games, by 5-9 points (4-2-1 last seven HF).
-- Thunder lost last three games, allowing 113.7 ppg (7-1 last eight HF). Minnesota lost five of last seven games (2-6-1 last nine AU).
-- Magic lost 15 of their last 16 games (1-7 last eight AU).
-- Celtics lost last three road games, by 14-7-3 points (2-6 AF). Phoenix lost seven of last nine games (6-7 HU).
-- Golden State lost six of last seven games (3-4 HU).
-- Portland lost its last six games, with four of last five by 13+ (1-6 last seven AU).

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Denver games went over the total; Washington's last four games stayed under.
-- Six of last nine Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight New York games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Houston games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in Sacramento's last five games.
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Memphis games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Golden State games went over total.
-- Seven of last eight Portland games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Bulls are 4-3 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Spurs are 5-3 vs spread on road if they played night before.

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CBB

-- Saint Louis (-2.5) waxed Butler 75-58 Jan 31, forcing 23 turnovers and shooting 58% inside arc; Billikens won eight in row, 17 of last 19 games, with all eight wins by 9+ points- they're 4-1 on A-16 road, winning last four, all by 9+ points. Butler won five of last six games; they're 5-1 at home in league, with four wins by 12+ points. A-16 home favorites of 5 or less points are 19-11 against the spread.
-- Harvard (-11.5) beat Brown 89-82 in double OT Feb 2, after blowing 11-point halftime lead and leading by 22 with 12:58 left; Brown was 12 of 32 from arc, Crimson 10-23- they shot 65% inside arc. Harvard is 2-1 in Ivy League road games, winning 2-10 points- they've won six of last seven games overall. Brown lost four of last five games; they've won two of three at home in league play, losing to Cornell by three.

-- Dartmouth (+3) beat Yale 71-62 at home Feb 2, shooting 61% inside arc; their subs were 12-16. Big Green lost last three games, by 23-18-10 points; they're 1-2 on Ivy road- only one of their six league losses is by less than 10 points. Yale was 5-24 from arc in loss at Hanover; they are 3-1 in last four games, winning by 9-4-19 points. Ivy League double digit home favorites are 3-6 against the spread.
-- Princeton is 5-2 in Ivy, splitting its two road games; Tigers (-8.5) beat Columbia 72-66 at home Feb 2, running to 27-13 lead in first 10:32, then blowing lead before pulling away late. Princeton made 8-11 from arc, had 19-10 edge on foul line. Lions lost six of last seven games, but five of six losses were by six or less points- they're 1-2 at home, with both losses by three points. Ivy League home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread.
-- Cornell (+2.5) won 71-69 at Penn Feb 2, after trailing by 10 at 13:39 mark; Quakers were 12-24 from arc, 1-3 from foul line, bit Cornell made 63% of shots inside arc. Penn is 1-2 on Ivy road, losing by 12-19 points; but losses were to Harvard/Princeton, two best teams in league. Cornell won its last three games, allowing 61 ppg, but they've lost two of three at home. Ivy League single digit home favorites are 6-7 vs spread.

-- North Dakota State is 4-4 in last eight games, losing three of last four on road, scoring 52.7 ppg in three losses; Bison is 0-3 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 26-13-15 points- their best win came in split vs #101 South Dakota State. Akron won its last 17 games; their opponents shoot 41% inside arc, #7 in country. Zips allowed 54.5 ppg in their last four games. Last nine North Dakota State games stayed under total.
-- SF Austin is 22-3, 13-2 in Southland; their defensive 40.5%eFG leads country, as foes make 26.3% from arc against them. Fourth road game in row for Lumberjacks, who are 7-2 on road in league, but also have four non-D-I wins (#289 schedule)- they played at Sam Houston two nights ago. Long Beach is 13-2 in Big West after facing #1 non-league schedule in country, going 4-7. 49ers are 0-6 this season vs top 100 teams.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Penguins won three of their last four games.
-- Nashville won three of its last four home games.
-- Blackhawks won seven of last eight games.

Cold teams
-- Florida lost five of its last six games, shut out three times.
-- Canucks lost three of last three games, all 4-3 games.
-- Sharks lost seven of their last eight games.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Vancouver games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten San Jose games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Penguins won seven of last eight games with Florida.
-- Canucks won five of last six visits to Nashville.
-- Blackhawks won five of last six games against San Jose.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/22/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3154-1071 (.747)
ATS: 1435-1480 (.492)
ATS Vary Units: 4161-4502 (.480)
Over/Under: 398-383 (.510)
Over/Under Vary Units: 418-452 (.480)

Ramada Worldwide BracketBusters

AKRON 65, North Dakota State 54
LONG BEACH STATE 62, Stephen F. Austin 57

Atlantic 10 Conference
Saint Louis 63, BUTLER 60

Atlantic Sun Conference
Florida Gulf Coast 74, STETSON 73

Ivy League
CORNELL 69, Penn 60
Harvard 68, BROWN 58
Princeton 62, COLUMBIA 56
YALE 71, Dartmouth 54

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/22/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 521-258 (.669)
ATS: 414-383 (.519)
ATS Vary Units: 1116-988 (.530)
Over/Under: 416-383 (.521)
Over/Under Vary Units: 593-527 (.529)

TORONTO 99, New York 97
Denver 102, WASHINGTON 100
Chicago 96, CHARLOTTE 87
INDIANA 98, Detroit 87
BROOKLYN 104, Houston 102
ATLANTA 106, Sacramento 96
MEMPHIS 100, Orlando 84
NEW ORLEANS 100, Dallas 99
OKLAHOMA CITY 111, Minnesota 94
PHOENIX 96, Boston 95
L.A. LAKERS 106, Portland 97
San Antonio 108, GOLDEN STATE 102

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

02/22/13 Predictions

Season: 80-66 (.548)

PITTSBURGH 4, Florida 2
NASHVILLE 3, Vancouver 2
CHICAGO 3, San Jose 2

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

Penguins -1.5 +139

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 986- 733 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner FRI Portland NBA + 9