2-23-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES

College Basketball Premium Picks

NCAA-B | Feb 23 '13 (1:00p) MIAMI FLORIDA vs WAKE FOREST	WAKE FOREST +7½-106 at 5dimes
15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +7.5 The Wake Forest Demon Deacons should not be catching 7.5 points at home today to the Miami Hurricanes. I'll gladly take advantage and back the home squad in a game that I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright. At 22-3 and as the No. 2 team in the country, the Hurricanes come into this contest way overvalued. They are also a perfect 13-0 in ACC play which has the betting public continuing to back them. Miami has started to show signs of coming back down to reality as each of its last three victories have come by 6 points or less over FSU (74-68), Clemson (45-43) and Virginia (54-50). Wake Forest is just 11-15 on the season, but this is certainly a team that is much better than its record would indicate. It has played very well at home this year where it is 9-4 SU & 7-3 ATS on the season. It has home wins over the likes of Xavier (66-59), Virginia (55-52), NC State (86-84) and Florida State (71-46). It also has a narrow home loss to Duke (70-75) as a 13.5-point underdog. One of the biggest reasons I am on Wake Forest Saturday is the fact that it has had a week to prepare for Miami since last playing on February 16th in a 56-57 loss to Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, this will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Miami as it played Clemson on 17th and Virginia on the 19th. The Demon Deacons will have a huge edge in rest and preparation. The Demon Deacons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Wake Forest is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games following a ATS loss. The Demon Deacons are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Wake Forest Saturday.

NCAA-B | Feb 23 '13 (1:45p) TEXAS TECH vs IOWA STATE	TEXAS TECH +19½-106 at 5dimes
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +19.5 The Iowa State Cyclones are way overvalued as nearly a 20-point home favorite over the Texas Tech Red Raiders Saturday. Sure, the Cyclones are one of the best home teams in the country, but asking them to win by 20-plus is simply asking too much. This is a huge letdown spot for Iowa State. It is coming off its first significant road win of the season with an 87-82 triumph at Baylor. With Kansas on deck Monday, there's no question that the Cyclones will be overlooking these Red Raiders and looking ahead to that huge showdown with the Jayhawks. Texas Tech already beat Iowa State once this season with a 56-51 home victory as a 10.5-point underdog on January 23rd. It has played some other good teams tough this season, including a 64-66 loss at West Virginia as a 14-point underdog in its last road game on February 16th. This play falls into a system that is 83-41 (66.9%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against a home team (IOWA ST) - a very good team (>=+8 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after a combined score of 165 points or more. The Red Raiders are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Texas Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

NCAA-B | Feb 23 '13 (4:00p) Texas Christian vs Kansas	Kansas -23½-106 at 5dimes
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas Jayhawks -23.5 The Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they host the TCU Horned Frogs. Not only are the Jayhawks fighting for the Big 12 title with Kansas State and Oklahoma State, they also want revenge on the Horned Frogs for their most embarrassing loss of the season. TCU actually beat Kansas 62-55 at home on February 6th as a 17-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. Kansas scored just 13 points in the first half in what head coach Bill Self called the worst performance in program history. You can bet that these players will want to run up the scoreboard on TCU to make a statement in this one. The Horned Frogs have fallen flat on their faces since that huge upset. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall with home losses to West Virginia (50-63) and Texas (59-68), and road losses to Oklahoma (48-75) and Iowa State (53-87). If Oklahoma won by 27 and Iowa State won by 34, you can just imagine what Kansas is going to do to TCU in the rematch Saturday. TCU is 0-6 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. TCU is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games. The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Jayhawks. Bet Kansas Saturday.

NCAA-B | Feb 23 '13 (4:00p) TENNESSEE vs TEXAS A&M	TEXAS A&M -1½-110 at SIA
15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -1.5 The Texas A&M Aggies should be a much bigger home favorite over the Tennessee Volunteers Saturday. Texas A&M still has an outside shot at making the NCAA Tournament, and it will be laying it all on the line to get a win in this one because of it. The Aggies have been playing their best basketball of the season over the past month while going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. All three of its losses during this stretch came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road. It has impressive home wins over both Missouri and Ole Miss during this span. Texas A&M is 11-4 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season. Tennessee is just 2-6 in true road games this season which is why I believe it is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. Plus, the Vols come in overvalued due to their four-game winning streak that includes unimpressive wins over South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky (minus Noel) and LSU. This play falls into a system that is 87-49 (64%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against an underdog (TENNESSEE) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. Tennessee is 6-21 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1997. Texas A&M is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take Texas A&M Saturday.

NCAA-B | Feb 23 '13 (7:00p) Arkansas vs FLORIDA	FLORIDA -18½-106 at 5dimes
15* Arkansas/Florida ESPNU No-Brainer on Florida -18.5 The Florida Gators (21-4) will be more motivated for a win Saturday than they have been at any other point this season. They just blew a double-digit second-half lead at Missouri last time out on Tuesday to fall 60-63. They'll be pissed off from that loss, and they'll also be out for revenge from a 69-80 loss at Arkansas as a 10.5-point favorite in their first meeting of the season on February 5th. Florida returns home where it is 12-0 on the season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 27.4 points/game. Arkansas has been excellent at home as well where it has lost just one game all season. However, the Razorbacks are just 1-6 in true road games this season. Arkansas' road losses include blowout defeats at the hands of Michigan (67-80), Texas A&M (51-69), South Carolina (54-75) and Vanderbilt (49-67). If the Razorbacks could lose on the road by 18 to both Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, and by 21 to South Carolina, you can just imagine what a motivated Florida team is going to do to them Saturday. The Razorbacks are 19-46 ATS in their last 65 road games. Arkansas is 15-41 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Razorbacks are 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Florida Saturday.

-= TOP PLAY =-

NCAA-B | Feb 23 '13 (8:00p) DENVER U vs NORTHERN IOWA

NORTHERN IOWA -4-106 at 5dimes

25* CBB Bracketbuster GAME OF THE YEAR on Norther Iowa -4 The Northern Iowa Panthers take on the Denver Pioneers in a bracketbuster game Saturday in non-conference action. I am laying the wood on the Panthers as only a 4-point home favorite today as they continue playing their best basketball of the season. Northern Iowa has won six straight games coming in, which includes home victories over Wichita State (57-52) and Creighton (61-54), which are considered the two best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. They also went on the road and beat Bradley, Drake and Missouri State during this run. Denver is a quality team at 17-8, but the fact of the matter is that it plays in the very weak conference in the in the WAC. This is a Pioneers' team that plays much better at home than they do on the road. They are just 7-6 in true road games this season. They'll be up against a Panthers team that is 12-2 at home while outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.9 points/game there. Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Pioneers are 13-44-1 ATS in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StudyGroup: Saturday's Top 25 NCB Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday’s Top-25 college basketball matchups:

Seton Hall at (10) Louisville (-19.5)

Louisville hosts Seton Hall in search of its sixth win in seven games. Notwithstanding the Cardinals' 104-101 five-overtime loss to Notre Dame, they’ve earned four of those five victories by at least 14 points. Seton Hall is looking to snap an eight-game losing streak and fell 73-58 in the last meeting with Louisville on Jan. 9. The Pirates are 0-4 ATS in the last four clashes between the schools.

(2) Miami-Florida at Wake Forest (+8.5)

Miami, in first place in the ACC, looks to extend its win streak to 15 games when the Hurricanes visit Wake Forest. Miami is 10-1 on the road, including 7-0 in the ACC, while Wake Forest, which is 9-4 at home, has lost eight of its last 10 games. The Demon Deacons are coming off a 57-56 home loss to Georgia Tech last Saturday. The Hurricanes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.

Southern Miss at (19) Memphis (-7)

The Golden Eagles have lost 10 straight to ranked teams while the Tigers have won 17 consecutive games. Southern Miss has won three in a row since losing 89-76 to Memphis two weeks ago and is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games.

(24) VCU at Xavier (+3.5)

Xavier needs to finish strong to extend its streak of seven consecutive NCAA tournament appearances. Both teams have a shot at securing a top-four finish in the Atlantic 10, which carries with it a bye past the opening round of the league tournament. The Rams have tallied 70-plus points in nine of their conference games, but are 0-4 ATS in their last four road contests.

(14) Oklahoma State at West Virginia (+4.5)

Oklahoma State dropped a full game behind Kansas and Kansas State with five games to play in the regular season after losing 68-67 in double-overtime to the Jayhawks on Wednesday. West Virginia is 0-7 against the six teams ranked above it in the Big 12 standings, which doesn’t bode well for the Mountaineers’ chances in the conference tournament. West Virginia is coming off a 10-point loss to Kansas State in a game that wasn't that close, and the Mountaineers lost 80-66 to Oklahoma State on Jan. 26 in Stillwater. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.

Washington State at (12) Arizona (-15)

Arizona is in a first-place tie in the Pac-12 with four regular-season games remaining and knows it can’t afford a stumble against last-place Washington State. The Wildcats notched a 79-65 road win over the Cougars, who have lost seven straight games and are just 1-7 on the road, on Feb. 2. Washington State is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.

TCU at (9) Kansas (-24.5)

The Horned Frogs have won once in conference play, taking down the Jayhawks 62-55 on Feb. 6. That defeated prompted Kansas coach Bill Self to say it was the worst team the school has put on the floor "since Dr. Naismith was there." TCU's stunning upset of the Jayhawks was its first-ever win in the Big 12, but the Horned Frogs have reverted to their losing ways since that landmark victory by dropping their last four games. TCU has won only once away from home -- at Rice on Dec. 22 -- and has been overwhelmed in six conference road games, losing by an average of 21.3 points. The Horned Frogs have lost 12 of 13 overall.

(16) New Mexico at (21) Colorado State (-6)

New Mexico has a chance to expand its lead in the Mountain West, while host Colorado State is looking to move into a tie for first when the two squads meet Saturday. The Lobos have a one-game lead over the Rams and can move closer to the conference regular-season crown if it can end Colorado State’s 27-game homecourt winning streak. The Rams are 14-0 at home this season. The Lobos are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Colorado St.

(11) Georgetown at (8) Syracuse (-7)

A share of first place is on the line with these teams in a three-way tie with Marquette atop the Big East, and a record crowd of 35,012 is expected to pack the Carrier Dome. Georgetown has won eight straight games since its surprising loss to South Florida, while Syracuse has won four of its last five. The Hoyas have dropped their last two games against Syracuse, which hasn’t lost at the Carrier Dome this season. Georgetown is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall.

(20) Marquette at Villanova (-1)

The Golden Eagles have been stuck in a two-win, one-loss pattern since Jan. 12, but a victory against the Wildcats would be their third straight. Marquette’s bench has been outstanding, outscoring opposing reserves 736-351 this season. Villanova has won four of its last five following Monday’s 71-63 victory over Rutgers. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.

Arkansas at (4) Florida (-17.5)

The Razorbacks, who have won three straight, beat Florida 80-69 on Feb. 5. That's the most points allowed by a Gator defense ranked third in the country in scoring defense (53 points). The Gators are 12-0 at home while Arkansas is 1-5 in road SEC games. The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.

San Diego at (3) Gonzaga (-21)

Gonzaga will try to keep its perfect West Coast Conference record intact - and its hopes for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament alive - when it hosts San Diego. The Bulldogs have won their 13 WCC games by an average of nearly 19 points, but their closest margin of victory came in their ninth straight win over the Toreros, 65-63, on Feb. 2. Gonzaga is 0-5 ATS in its last five Saturday games.

(13) Kansas State at Texas (+2.5)

After Monday's 71-61 win over West Virginia, K-State kept pace in the Big 12 standings, as the Wildcats remain in a tie for first place with No. 9/9 Kansas with 10-3 league records. Texas enters Saturday's contest with wins in two of its last three games since the return of sophomore guard Myck Kabongo, who returned on a Feb. 13 after a 23-game NCAA?suspension. The Longhorns are averaging 63.9 points on 40.9 percent shooting, including 27.9 percent from 3-point range, while holding opponents to 63.5 points on 36.8 percent shooting, including an NCAA-best 26.8 percent from beyond the arc. The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

Stanford at (23) Oregon (-3)

Oregon is deadlocked for first place in the Pac-12 standings heading into Saturday’s game against visiting Stanford. The Ducks lost their grip on sole possession by losing for the fourth time in seven games Thursday, giving up a buzzer beater to California in the 48-46 loss. In each of the recent setbacks, Oregon has been held to 54 points or fewer. Stanford began the skid for the Ducks, beating them 76-52 on Jan. 30. The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

CBB Saturday Cliff Notes

Missouri at Kentucky: A week ago what would this line have been and would anyone have even considered taking the Tigers! Now it's the Wildcats who may not even make the NCAA tournament, and the Tigers are again playing their way in and up, with at least three and possibly five winnable games left. Against Vanderbilt, Kentucky blocked five shots (only) and three were by Cauley-Stein. That's an awful lot of pressure to be putting on yet another Freshman, and ones who's only played about 40% of the teams minutes this season. Against Tennessee, they blocked three shots, two by Cauley-Stein. But, how over valued is Missouri off the Florida win, when the simple fact remains that there only road win was at Mississippi State. Since Kentucky has simply not been creating turnovers (14th in the SEC) and the Tigers are an excellent free throw shooting team as well as the number one defensive rebounding team, I actually like their chances here. I had thought that perhaps it was now Missouri who would be over valued, but there letdown may come at South Carolina next week against Frank Martin's Gamecocks. Lean Tigers and over without turnovers.

Creighton at St. Mary's: I'd like to take the Gaels here, but with a Thursday game against a BYU team that will wear them out, perhaps not. Both teams desperately need to win to be in, and Creighton has a gimme next before finishing at home against Witchita State, so the situation probably leads me to think that Creighton wins this game, especially with an extra days rest. Between that and the glaring weakness St. Mary's has with perimeter defense, I doubt I could take the home team here. However, the Jays have really struggled to score of late and simply are not road warriors. Both teams very experienced so I doubt they're going to attack each other, much like a playoff game in that teams will, at least initially, play NOT to make mistakes, meaning I may look hard at that under especially given that it will likely be be up from about 146 fairly quickly, so we'll wait for the best number here. Admittedly it appears like the Gaels have been playing better basketball, and the result of the BYU game will tell a lot. They've still only lost at home to Gonzaga, but they've not really beaten a good team. However, not losing at home does instill confidence.

Marquette at Villanova: Somehow Marquette is tied for the Big East lead. 'Nova simply looking to get into the 5-8 spot in the Big East Tournament. 'Cats have been playing some good basketball lately, and maybe their youth is starting to come together, and gain confidence. But, this will be their toughest test in some time. Marquette's conference losses have all come on the road, but they've got a game as soon as Monday back home against Syracuse, so a classic look-ahead spot here.They're (Villanova) is going to want to speed this game up, hence they're going to have to protect the ball. I love what Villanova has been doing on the glass, and given that Marquette plays slow and doesn't fire three's, I like the 'Cats to stay in this game all day. Marquette will be challenged inside by the height of the Wildcats, so a Villanova win is not out of the question.

NC State at North Carolina: Both team with nearly identical records and motivation aside from the normal "we don't like each other" stuff. Only Heels loss at home was to Miami, in a game that was even closer than the score indicated. Miami just made the plays (experience) down the stretch and UNC did not. Wolfpack will be favored in all of their remaining games, so THIS one is big for them, perhaps bigger than it is for North Carolina. They (NC State) can pretty much control their ACC destiny after this. NC State beat them earlier this season in what was a fairly high scoring game, meaning I'd almost automatically look to the under first. NC State just drained threes and lived at the free throw line, something I would expect to correct itself this game. NC State without a real quality road win in Conference (BC and Clemson do not count, although they are tough places to play). This is a game I may look to take NC State 1H and then expect the speed of the game that the Heels play to wear on the thin bench of the Wolfpack, so NC 2H.

Baylor at Oklahoma: Still seething we didn't formally add Iowa State to our Wednesday card, but it is what it is. Anyone who bought the package or is a long term subscriber knew what we were going to do. If the standings in the Big-12 hold fairly true to what they are now, these teams could well meet a third time in a couple of weeks. Baylor lost to the Sooners at home and still have only beaten TCU on the road, while Oklahoma's only home loss was to K-State and they've got a reasonably easy (if there is such a thing) schedule left. Sooners' ought to be favored by perhaps a few more than they should, but with Baylor near the bottom of the conference in creating turnovers and not being as good on the offensive boards as perhaps their length would have you suspect, I can see a Sooner rout. However, Oklahoma does most of their damage inside (Baylor is actually a better perimeter defense) and they are an excellent FT shooting team, so inasmuch as I'd like to make a case for the points, right now I can't.

New Mexico at Colorado State: Too little, too late, for the Rams at UNLV, but they can take plenty from that game. New Mexico's last really good win was over CSU, so clearly there's even more reason for CSU to play hard here. Colorado State will be favored in all their remaining games, while New Mexico has a tough one at SDSU coming up. Obviously the MWC Championship is in Las Vegas, and were it not I would call it a lock that these two meet again for the Conference title and a great seed, so again, this game has ramifications well beyond "this game". It's almost impossible for me to fade a team like CSU that gets nearly every missed shot at both ends of the floor, and for as small as they are it's been tough to fathom all year (see coaching). The caveat when playing New Mexico is their length, but CSU is also one of the most seasoned teams in the nation. They both get to the line a ton and are great FT shooting teams, which would give me a decent lean to the over, even though this game might be played slower than I'd like to make that bet. However, it ought to be plenty close, meaning some free throws late. I just have to wonder if CSU isn't (or won't be) favored by a couple too many.

Denver at Northern Iowa: Clearly Northern Iowa has played the far better schedule this season, so why isn't it just that easy.These teams are mirror images of each other on offense, as both will simply walk the ball up and take the first available three point shot. NI does have a significant height advantage, but in a game like this where rebounds are few and far between because of all the long shots, I'm not sure how much that really matters. Denver's more likely to create a couple of extra turnovers, while NI is likely to grab a few more points at the line. Denver hasn't had a bad loss. They played a tough first 6-8 games, and although they lost most of them, they should have. And have only lost once since December 29th. NI doesn't have a bad loss, either, but Indiana State and E'ville beat them at home. They did, however, beat both Witchita State and Creighton at home. I what should be an extremely low scoring game, I may make the case for Denver here. If they win this game, with their last three at home they would almost certainly finish Conference play at 16-2 and with their RPI and a reasonable showing against LaTech could be in the Tournament.

Southern Miss at Memphis: Southern Miss playing for seeding in the Big Dance, because unless they beat Memphis in the Conference Tournament, that's what's left. Memphis hasn't lost since December 15ht to L'ville, and already beat Southern Miss on the road. Having said that, I suppose Memphis could actually be a little over confident here, maybe thinking about their road game at Xavier on Tuesday. I do like the fact that not only will Memphis get sloppy with the ball, but Southern Miss will indeed create turnovers, but, so will SoMiss and if Memphis forces the pace that could be a problem of epic proportion in the way of easy baskets SoMiss cannot afford to give up. This is the time of year when the contenders separate themselves from pretenders, and simply taking underdogs is a process that typically needs to be revisited. SoMiss is simply going to have to hit their three's to stay in this, because with their size disadvantage Memphis ought to have their way inside. Southern Miss will win their remaining three games, so there is nothing not to leave on the court here. That could mean just about anything. They may well cover at least the first half, and this could be another game we bet in-game.

VCU at Xavier: We faded VCU against St. Louis and may do so again. There Conference schedule has been quite weak and they just don't have a quality road win. Xavier on the other hand has a date with Memphis, while the Rams have a ton of time off. This will be an interesting number. Xavier will slow the game down and has the serious length advantage, but VCU lead the conference in steals, which is interesting because Xavier has had issues protecting the ball. The Musketeers SHOULD control the boards and do defend the arc well, but they're going to have to score inside, and neither team shoots FT's all that well, so we've got a decent lean to the under in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVID BANKS

CBB WEEKEND LEAN SHEET

VCU at Xavier, Saturday, Feb. 23, 2:00 ET
VCU is looking to bounce back from a 76-62 loss at Saint Louis on Tuesday, but the Rams are still the highest ranked Atlantic 10 Conference team on the Pomeroy Ratings at 22nd in the country overall. The Rams are much improved offensively compared to the last couple of years as they now rank 20th in offensive efficiency, while at the same time they have continued to play the pressure defense that has personified Shaka Smart coached teams, leading the nation in defensive turnover percentage. Xavier is a disappointing 10-5 and has yet to beat a Pomeroy Top 40 team all season. VCU is 21-13, 61.8 percent in its last 34 games when coming off of a road loss.
LEAN: VCU

NC State at North Carolina, Saturday, Feb. 23, 4:00 ET
These teams were involved in a wild 91-83 shootout the first time they met this season and there is really no reason to believe the pace of this game will be any slower. NC State ranks sixth in the country in offensive efficiency and 17th in effective field goal percentage, and it also ranks sixth in three-point shooting. Unfortunately, the defense is ranked 148th in effective field goal percentage allowed, leaving the Wolfpack vulnerable to high scoring games. The Tar Heels will likely oblige here as North Carolina is ranked fifth in the nation with a tempo rating of 72.7 possessions per game, and they are on a mini-roll winning two straight games since a narrow five-point loss at Duke. The 'over' is 9-5, 64.3 percent in the last 14 North Carolina conference games when coming off of an 'under'.
LEAN: OVER

Detroit at Wichita State, Saturday, Feb. 23, 4:00 ET
One if the BracketBuster games this weekend sees a Wichita State team ranked 31st overall on the Pomeroy Ratings hosting a Detroit team ranked 63rd. Besides being the higher ranked team the Shockers come out of the stronger conference in the Missouri Valley, which is the third ranked mid-major as a whole on Pomeroy. Yes Detroit is ranked 18th in the country in offensive efficiency, but the Titans are not used to facing defenses like Wichita State posses in the Horizon League, as the Shockers rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and 32nd in effective field goal percentage against. Conversely, the Titans are a dismal 156th in defensive efficiency and 308th in effective field goal percentage against vs. an easier schedule. Detroit is 9-19-1 ATS in its last 29 non-conference games.
LEAN: WICHITA STATE

Marquette at Villanova, Saturday, Feb. 23, 6:00 ET
Marquette is in a three-way tie atop the Big East standings with Syracuse and Georgetown as they are all 10-3 in conference play. The Golden Eagles must now guard against looking ahead to their big home date with Syracuse on Monday, but the fact that a loss here would diminish the importance of that game should be enough to keep Marquette motivated. Villanova had that unconscious spell last month when they beat Louisville and Syracuse in consecutive games, but the Wildcats have come back to earth since than and sit at just 8-6 in conference play. Villanova is ranked only 197th nationally in effective field goal percentage, so the Cats could have trouble keeping pace vs. a hot Marquette team that is ranked an excellent 14th in the country in effective efficiency. Marquette is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 road games.
LEAN: Marquette

Nevada at San Diego State, Saturday, Feb. 23, 6:00 ET
This is a bigger mismatch this season than it would have been in previous years as Nevada is a team in transition. The Wolf Pack are 12-13 overall and just 3-8 in conference play in their first season in the Mountain West after coming over from the WAC, as they are ranked just 253rd in effective field goal percentage and 247th in effective field goal percentage against. They also enter this contest having lost five of their last six games including losing as a home favorite to Fresno State in overtime on Tuesday. On the other hand, San Diego State is ranked 17th in the country overall on the Pomeroy Ratings, and the key to the Aztecs' success had been their defense, as they rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 19th in eFG% against. These teams have already met this season with San Diego State prevailing by 21 points on the road in Reno. Nevada is 11-20-2 ATS in its last 33 games after being favored in its previous game.
LEAN: SAN DIEGO STATE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC 157 Betting: Rousey Carries Big Odds into UFC Debut

UFC 157: Ronda Rousey (-1100) vs. Liz Carmouche (+700)

UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey puts her belt on the line for the first time against the tough Liz Carmouche. Rousey entered as a massive -1,100 favorite while the comeback on Carmouche is +700.

Rousey (6-0) has taken the MMA world by storm in the last year or so, having finished all six of her opponents in the first round with an armbar submission. Her dominance in the ring is proof that Rousey is one of the the most special athletes to ever strap on a pair of four-ounce gloves.

Dana White is banking on Rousey to be the face of women’s MMA and the UFC gave her a favorable matchup in her UFC debut in Carmouche, who likes to fight on the ground which is right in Rousey’s wheelhouse. If this fight hits the mat - it’s over. But if it stays standing, who knows what Carmouche can do?

Carmouche (8-2) is being brought in as Rousey’s opponent and not many people expect her to win this fight. Carmouche is one tough chick — she was a Marine before turning to mixed martial arts as a career — but she’s going to have her hands full with Rousey.

Unfortunately for Carmouche, she’s at her best when she’s on top throwing her ground and pound, but Rousey is such a good grappler. No disrespect to Carmouche, but perhaps her best chance to win this fight is if she cuts Rousey and the doctor has to stop the fight. Otherwise, I just can’t see her winning outside of a fluke punch or an in-fight injury to Rousey.

Rousey is going to do what she does in every fight: run to her opponent clinch her, take her down with her judo, land in mount, and grab the armbar. I don’t see this fight playing out in any other way than Rousey getting her hand raised after five minutes or less at the office.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC 157 Betting: Henderson, Machida Battle for Title Shot

UFC 157: Light heavyweights Lyoto Machida (-240) vs. Dan Henderson (+180)

Light heavyweight contenders Dan Henderson and Lyoto Machida clash in the co-main event of UFC 157 with a title shot against Jon Jones on the line. Machida entered the bout as a -240 favorite while Henderson is a +180 underdog.

Machida (18-3) is coming off a fantastic KO win over Ryan Bader at UFC on FOX 4, a fight that was supposed to earn him a title shot. However, after the debacle of UFC 151 (Henderson vs. Jon Jones was cancelled), Machida was forced to take a fight with Henderson. It’s a fight he can win if he can execute his effective Karate-based style that keeps his opponents on their toes at all times.

Machida is one of the most talented strikers in the sport but he can’t brawl with Henderson in this fight. He needs to time his counters when Henderson is coming in and clip him. Henderson’s never been knocked out but if anyone will finally crack his chin it will be Machida.

Henderson (29-8) hasn’t competed since the “Fight of the Century” against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 139 in November 2011. Henderson is, of course, known for his powerful right hand, his Greco-roman wrestling, and his ability to withstand massive amounts of punishment.

He is a warrior and, even though he’s 42 years old, he’s still competing at an incredibly high level, having taken out “Shogun,” Fedor Emelianenko, Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante and Renato “Babalu” Sobral in his last four fights.

Henderson is coming off a nasty knee injury and the disappointment of not getting his title fight against Jones at UFC 151, so he has lots of question marks surrounding him heading into this bout against Machida. But despite all the uncertainty, Henderson - who is one of the sport’s all-time greats - can never be counted out of a fight.

Henderson only needs to land one punch to win this fight, and I think he’ll do it. It might take him a round or two to find his distance for his patented “H-Bomb”, but Henderson is going to land at some point, knocking Machida out and earning his rematch with Jon Jones.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

No. 8 Syracuse hosts No. 11 Georgetown Saturday
by Robert Livingston

Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
Tip-off: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Line: Syracuse -5.5

Long-time rivals No. 8 Syracuse and No. 11 Georgetown will tip off for the first of two regular-season meetings Saturday afternoon.

The Hoyas are among the hottest teams in college basketball, winning eight in a row SU and ATS. That includes wins as underdogs against Notre Dame, Louisville and Cincinnati. The Orange fell to Connecticut last week, but have bounced back for two SU and ATS wins against Seton Hall and Providence.

These two teams played once last season, a narrow three-point win for the then-No. 2 Orange in overtime against the then-No. 11 Hoyas. PF Otto Porter led the way for Georgetown in that game with 14 points on 5-of-9 shooting. Porter (15.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG) is leading the Hoyas offense again this year as a threat to score from anywhere on the court, also knocking down 1.3 threes per game on a phenomenal 44.6% clip. His frontcourt mate Greg Whittington is still out with academic violations, but seeing as how the Hoyas have won eight in a row, that doesn’t seem to be a problem. The other key scorer is G Markel Starks (12.4 PPG, 3.0 APG), who like Porter has been on-point from distance, hitting 42.7% of his threes. Accurate outside shooting will be key to giving the Hoyas a shot of breaking down Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone on Saturday.

No current member of the Orange scored double-digit points against the Hoyas last year as the graduated Kris Joseph carried the team to victory with 29 points. This year’s squad is led by 6-foot-6 PG Michael Carter-Williams (12.7 PPG) who is second nationally in assists (8.2 APG) and third in steals (3.0 SPG). He’s making just 38.0% FG and turning it over 3.5 times per game, but makes up for it with his elite defense and ball distribution. SG Brandon Triche (14.9 PPG) leads the offense, and over his past two games is averaging 21.5 PPG. Junior SF C.J. Fair (14.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is the team’s biggest asset down low, though he can stretch a defense with his shot and is coming off two consecutive double-doubles, averaging 19.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG. The team also gets a big spark off the bench from PF James Southerland (13.8 PPG), who knocks down 2.3 threes per game and scored 20 points his last time out on 7-for-8 shooting. He’s shown no trepidation since returning from academic violations, and will be key to breaking down a stingy Georgetown defense that yields just 56.1 PPG, second lowest in the Big East.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kentucky hosts Missouri in crucial game Saturday
by Robert Livingstone

Rupp Arena – Lexington, KY
Tip-off: Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -2.5

Still in search of sneaking into the NCAA Tournament without star freshman Nerlens Noel done for the year, Kentucky will host the nation’s top rebounding team, Missouri on Saturday night.

These two teams haven’t played each other in 13 seasons. Kentucky enters this game with its first win without Noel, a four-point victory against Vanderbilt Wednesday that marked the Wildcats’ fourth consecutive ATS loss. Missouri, meanwhile, grabs 42.2 rebounds per game, tops in the nation. Kentucky will need to find a way to keep the Tigers off the glass with the absence of its top rebounder Noel, who also leads the nation in blocked shots.

Six double-digit scorers pace the well-balanced Missouri attack. None is more integral to the team’s successes and failures than PG Phil Pressey (11.8 PPG, 6.9 APG), who marshals the offense. He, however, struggles with turnovers, coughing it up 3.7 times per game and makes just 36.7% FG this year. PF Alex Oriakhi (10.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG) paces the team’s prolific rebounding, averaging 10.8 RPG in the team’s past four contests. He’s also a defensive specialist with 1.6 BPG. PF Laurence Bowers (14.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG) joins him in the post as a more dynamic forward who can also shoot the ball. He led the Tigers with a double-double against Florida, tallying 17 points and 10 boards. SG Jabari Brown (14.5 PPG) leads the offense in scoring as a dangerous threat from deep, hitting 2.6 threes per game. Like Pressey though, he needs to up his percentages, hitting just 39.2% FG. Guards Keion Bell (11.6 PPG) and Earnest Ross (10.5 PPG) round out the team on the wing. Bell snapped a streak of four consecutive 20-point games with a nine-point effort against the Gators.

With Noel out, the onus on replacing his minutes falls to fellow heralded freshman Willie Cauley-Stein (8.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG), who stepped up in the win against Vanderbilt with his best game of the season, notching 20 points, seven boards and three blocks. But he has been inconsistent. In the loss to Tennessee, he fouled out in just 23 minutes of play, finishing with four turnovers, two points and two boards. He’s joined in the frontcourt by sophomore PF Kyle Wiltjer (11.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG), who is dangerous from beyond the arc, hitting two threes per game. Freshman SG Archie Goodwin (13.7 PPG) paces the offense, but has also battled inconsistency. He snapped three consecutive single-digit scoring efforts with 16 points against Vanderbilt. PF Alex Poythress (11.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG) has also been kept in check lately, averaging 6.0 PPG in his past six games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oilers' Hall suspended; Saturday's Odds on the Move

Edmonton Oilers forward Taylor Hall has been suspended two games by the NHL for a knee-on-knee collision with Minnesota Wild forward Cal Clutterbuck Thursday night.

The Oilers opened as slight faves for Saturday's tilt with the Phoenix Coyotes, but the moneyline is now favoring the Coyotes as of Friday evening and the total remains stable at 5.

Hall will also be ineligible for Monday’s clash with the Blackhawks in Chicago.

The 21-year-old has been the Oilers' top playmaker with three goals and 13 assists this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WGC - Accenture Match Play
by Matt Fargo

Round 3

And then there were none…

After number one seeds Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods vanished after Round 1, Louis Oosthuizen and Luke Donald saw a similar fate in Round 2. Donald was the first to go and it didn't take long as he lost 7 and 6 to Scott Piercy. He doubled the first hole and the next thing he knew, he was three down after three and it spiraled from there. Oosthuizen kept his match much closer as he lost 3 and 2 to Robert Garrigus. The match was all square through eight holes but Garrigus went four under through the next eight holes.

Overall, Round 2 had its share of upsets but nothing out of the ordinary with the exception of the number ones going down. Of the 16 matches, only six saw the higher seed take out the lower seed and surprisingly none of those matches even made it to #18. While the big news has been about the one seeds falling, only one number two seed is left, Bubba Watson. After Adam Scott and Lee Westwood went down yesterday, Justin Rose lost 4 and 2 to Nicolas Colsaerts on Friday.

The three seeds have not had much better luck as only Ian Poulter remains from that group as Sergio Garcia fell to Matt Kuchar 2 and 1 today after Charl Schwartzel and Jason Dufner lost on Thursday. Meanwhile Steve Stricker and Webb Simpson are the lone four seeds remaining. That means only four out of 16 players seeded one through four are left and conversely, there are five double-digit seeds left. The highest is Shane Lowry at 16 as he followed up his defeat of McIlroy by destroying Carl Pettersson 6 and 5.

After a rough first round, we got it back in Round 2 by going 4-1 +6.8 Units. Now onto Round 3.

Listed are three Third Round Matchup Best Bets (All for 2 Units):

Webb Simpson -140 over Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

Simpson ruined my perfect Round 2 with a 1 up win over Peter Hanson as he birdied 18 which happened to be his only lead of the match. He wasn't at his best with four birdies and three bogeys but he found a way to win. Fernandez-Castano easily took care of Charles Howell III 6 and 5 as he was clearly in letdown mode following his win over Tiger Woods. This one is chalky but Simpson has yet to even play his best.

Tim Clark +135 over Ian Poulter

With a lot of the top seeds falling, Poulter is now the favorite but with all of the crazy upsets, his time might be done here. He loves this format and is a former champion but this number is too overinflated. Clark has been steady and he carded five birdies in Round 2. This is the third straight start here that he has made it to the third round and seeing I think this one is a toss up, the value is all over Clark.

Steve Stricker -120 over Scott Piercy

Stricker won over Nick Watney after 21 holes and while he played nine more holes than Piercy did Friday, I do not think fatigue will be an issue at all. If anything he has a huge advantage if this match is close. Stricker is a veteran and has seen the course many times while Piercy is a rookie and his first two matches have not gone past #15 so there are three holes he hasn't even seen yet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Yale (-10 1/2) Friday.

Saturday it’s Syracuse. The surplus is 90 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goldsheet

TENNESSEE by 9 over Texas A&M (Saturday, Feb., 23, Day)
COLORADO ST. by 12 over New Mexico (Sat., Feb. 23, Day)
TEXAS by 6 over Kansas State (Saturday, February 23)
KENT STATE by 11 over Loyola-Chicago (Sat., Feb. 23 Day)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise
Top play of the week
Florida

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/23/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3159-1074 (.746)
ATS: 1439-1482 (.493)
ATS Vary Units: 4181-4510 (.481)
Over/Under: 400-384 (.510)
Over/Under Vary Units: 420-453 (.481)

Ramada Worldwide BracketBusters
at campus sites
BELMONT 75, Ohio 71
DAVIDSON 72, Montana 61
INDIANA STATE 81, Iona 74
NIAGARA 81, Northwestern State 80
NORTHERN IOWA 57, Denver 53
SAINT MARY'S 73, Creighton 66
South Dakota State vs. MURRAY STATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
VALPARAISO 75, Eastern Kentucky 66
VERMONT 63, Canisius 62
WESTERN MICHIGAN 66, Pacific 62
WICHITA STATE 75, Detroit 67

BracketBusters Pool
at campus sites
Bowling Green 63, FORT WAYNE 61
Bradley 65, UIC 63
BUFFALO 64, Manhattan 58
CAL POLY 68, Loyola Marymount 57
Cal State Fullerton 77, TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI 70
Cal State Northridge 76, SOUTHERN UTAH 75
CENTRAL ARKANSAS 77, Siue 74
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 66, Gardner-Webb 59
EASTERN MICHIGAN 54, Missouri State 53
FAIRFIELD 62, Albany 53
Green Bay vs. DRAKE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
HAMPTON 64, Saint Peter's 55
HAWAI'I 84, Northern Arizona 72
HIGH POINT 72, Morgan State 63
Idaho 67, IDAHO STATE 60
Kent State 68, LOYOLA (CHICAGO) 65
LIBERTY 79, Austin Peay 75
MARIST 82, Vmi 72
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 60, Eastern Illinois 55
OAKLAND 85, Morehead State 73
OMAHA 76, North Dakota 75
PORTLAND STATE 71, UC Riverside 65
PRESBYTERIAN 69, The Citadel 65
RIDER 71, Charleston Southern 68
Sam Houston State vs. EASTERN WASHINGTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Savannah State 60, CAMPBELL 58
SIENA 66, Radford 64
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 71, Ball State 65
Southeastern Louisiana 59, WINTHROP 58
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 68, Miami (Ohio) 58
TENNESSEE STATE 69, Loyola (Md.) 67
TENNESSEE TECH 73, Kansas City 61
Texas State 76, LAMAR 70
TOLEDO 73, McNeese State 61
UC DAVIS 79, Northern Colorado 69
UC SANTA BARBARA 68, Sacramento State 61
UNC ASHEVILLE 73, Jacksonville State 66
UT ARLINGTON 66, UC Irvine 60
UT MARTIN 81, Longwood 75
UT SAN ANTONIO 74, Nicholls State 69
UTAH STATE 70, Illinois State 68
Weber State 71, ORAL ROBERTS 70
WESTERN CAROLINA 68, Coastal Carolina 64
WESTERN ILLINOIS 61, Cleveland State 50
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 71, IUPUI 69
WRIGHT STATE 63, Evansville 60
YOUNGSTOWN STATE 77, Central Michigan 65

America East Conference
Boston U. 73, UMBC 61
Stony Brook 66, MAINE 57

Atlantic 10 Conference
MASSACHUSETTS 77, Dayton 73
Richmond 72, FORDHAM 68
SAINT JOSEPH'S 67, George Washington 62
St. Bonaventure 78, DUQUESNE 72
Vcu 68, XAVIER 64

Atlantic Coast Conference
MARYLAND 63, Clemson 58
Miami (Fla.) 70, WAKE FOREST 57
NORTH CAROLINA 83, NC State 77

Atlantic Sun Conference
JACKSONVILLE 76, East Tennessee State 67
Lipscomb 75, KENNESAW STATE 70
MERCER 65, Northern Kentucky 48
NORTH FLORIDA 71, USC Upstate 67

Big 12 Conference
IOWA STATE 86, Texas Tech 61
KANSAS 75, Tcu 45
Kansas State 66, TEXAS 61
OKLAHOMA 73, Baylor 68
Oklahoma State 70, WEST VIRGINIA 64

Big East Conference
Connecticut 79, DePAUL 71
LOUISVILLE 74, Seton Hall 51
Providence 67, RUTGERS 63
SYRACUSE 63, Georgetown 58
VILLANOVA 66, Marquette 65

Big Ten Conference
Iowa 67, NEBRASKA 59

Colonial Athletic Association
Delaware 73, UNC WILMINGTON 68
GEORGE MASON 73, William & Mary 63
HOFSTRA 62, Old Dominion 61
JAMES MADISON 66, Georgia State 62
TOWSON 64, Drexel 60

Conference USA
East Carolina 69, SMU 67
MARSHALL 73, Uab 72
MEMPHIS 76, Southern Miss 63
Tulane 68, RICE 60
UCF 72, Tulsa 68

Great West Conference
CHICAGO STATE 69, Texas-Pan American 64
HOUSTON BAPTIST 67, Utah Valley 64

Ivy League
BROWN 65, Dartmouth 54
COLUMBIA 61, Penn 60
Harvard 68, YALE 62
Princeton 64, CORNELL 61

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
BETHUNE-COOKMAN 70, South Carolina State 56
HOWARD 57, Coppin State 53
Norfolk State 63, DELAWARE STATE 60
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL 65, North Carolina A&T 50

Mountain West Conference
Boise State 63, FRESNO STATE 61
COLORADO STATE 65, New Mexico 59
SAN DIEGO STATE 73, Nevada 57
Unlv 59, WYOMING 57

Northeast Conference
MOUNT ST. MARY'S 77, St. Francis (N.Y.) 70
QUINNIPIAC 79, Bryant 74
ROBERT MORRIS 83, Fairleigh Dickinson 60
SACRED HEART 83, Central Connecticut State 79
SAINT FRANCIS (PA.) 69, Monmouth 67
WAGNER 81, Long Island 77

Pacific-10 Conference
ARIZONA 74, Washington State 56
ARIZONA STATE 69, Washington 64
California 73, OREGON STATE 67
OREGON 70, Stanford 66

Patriot League
Army vs. AMERICAN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
COLGATE 61, Navy 53

Southeastern Conference
Alabama vs. LSU: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
FLORIDA 76, Arkansas 59
GEORGIA 63, South Carolina 53
KENTUCKY 74, Missouri 71
OLE MISS 78, Auburn 65
TEXAS A&M 59, Tennessee 57
Vanderbilt 64, MISSISSIPPI STATE 57

Southern Conference
Elon 74, CHATTANOOGA 69
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 67, Furman 58
SAMFORD 72, UNC Greensboro 64

Southwestern Athletic Conference
ALABAMA STATE 66, Prairie View A&M 59
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF 75, Grambling State 44
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE 67, Jackson State 64
SOUTHERN 68, Alcorn State 51
Texas Southern 73, ALABAMA A&M 61

Sun Belt Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 73, Troy 56
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 81, Ulm 49
SOUTH ALABAMA 72, North Texas 65
Ualr 65, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 64
UL LAFAYETTE 72, Western Kentucky 69

West Coast Conference
GONZAGA 79, San Diego 54
SAN FRANCISCO 74, Pepperdine 63
Santa Clara 70, PORTLAND 66

Non-Conference
NEW JERSEY TECH 83, New Orleans 66
NEW MEXICO STATE 66, Utep 57