2-25-13

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Study Group: Monday's Top 25 NCB Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Monday’s ranked college basketball games:

Texas Tech at (13) Kansas State (-19.5, 137)

Kansas State shares first place in the conference with Kansas and the Wildcats have four games remaining to chase their first regular-season title since winning the Big Eight championship in 1976-77. The Wildcats, who are 13-1 at home, have won seven of their last eight, including three straight, and are coming off an 81-69 victory at Texas on Saturday. Kansas State has won the last six meetings against Texas Tech, including a 68-59 victory Feb. 5 in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.

(8) Syracuse at (20) Marquette (Pick, 131)

Syracuse and Marquette were tied with Georgetown for first place in the Big East entering last weekend, but losses by both teams on Saturday dropped each of them a game off the pace. The Orange, who have lost three of their last four road games, will have a short turnaround against Marquette, which owns the country’s second-longest active home winning streak at 23. Syracuse is 4-4 over its last eight games and the conference’s second-highest scoring offense has failed to top 58 points in three of those contests or shoot better than 36.7 percent from the field. The Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.

(9) Kansas at Iowa State (+1, 144)

Iowa State has the third-longest active home-winning streak in the nation at 22 games and is 31-2 at Hilton Coliseum over the last two seasons. The Jayhawks needed overtime to beat visiting Iowa State on Jan. 9. Ben McLemore scored a season-high 33 points in that game, but the standout Kansas freshman guard has been held under his team-high 16.2 scoring average in the last three games. The Jayhawks will have to defend the perimeter in this one as the Cyclones have made a nation-leading 260 3-pointers this season, converting 10 or more in six straight games. Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.

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Dave Essler

CBB Monday Cliff Notes

We got obliterated on our only premium play on Sunday (USC). Not sure which is worse, the aged old argument of whether you'd rather being on the wrong end of the last thirty seconds, or just get crushed. From years of experience, I can assure you it's the former. To be that far off is embarrassing and certainly doesn't put our best foot forward. There are adjustments that need to be made this time of year. More often than not, and it was the case on Saturday and Sunday, a larger percentage of favorites covered the number. That happens in November, and it starts happening again now. I don't have numbers to support that, and there always "any given day", but from experience and history, it does happen. So, we grind on.

Syracuse at Marquette: Having just said what I said, my typical reaction to this game would be to find a way to back Marquette and/or the home underdog. Both teams need to win to assure themselves of staying in the top four in the Conference and hence a bye in the Tournament, and Marquette has yet to lose at home this season. They come in off a fairly predictable loss at Villanova, knowing that 'Nova had been playing pretty well and Marquette could we be thinking more about THIS game. The 'Cuse had no excuse in looking ahead and losing at home to G-Town. They turned the ball over 16 times, only had eight assists, and shot .200 from behind the arc. They're lucky it wasn't worse. Marquette loves to pound the ball inside and get to the FT line, and they do it well. The problem is that Syracuse is a far better defensive team than offensive, and they've got a significant length advantage, hence they are the fifth best offensive rebounding team in the nation. However, they aren't a great defensive rebounding team, and Marquette is indeed a very good OFFENSIVE rebounding team, and therein lies what this game will come down to, IMO. That and the big advantage Syracuse has in both not turning the ball over (as they did against G-Town) and in creating them. I'd be quite tempted to take the under here, as this should be a methodical defensive game, but I can at the same time see a close game with some late free throws. Tough one throw down one right now, and two ways to look at it. How often can you bet on Syracuse without laying points (twice this season) or how often can you get Marquette at home just needing to win (twice this year and they won both v/Wisconsin and Pittsburgh). I've thought all along Pittsburgh was a bit over rated. I guess if I had to bet this game, I'd find a way to follow the money, if I could find it, as late as I could. It's a PK for a reason. Marquette's slightly "off" offensive numbers may well be a result of facing opponents with the #1 rated defensive efficiency, too. I suspect most "sharp" people will be on the home team, but I have my reservations at this point. Statistically, Syracuse should win the game. This time of year with this much at stake (seeding) the better team does not always win.

Kansas at Iowa State: Welp, people will be tripping over themselves to take ISU here, especially with the overtime loss earlier this season at Kansas, and the fact that they are undefeated at home this year. Couple that with the fact that most people will remember that Kansas lost to TCU outright. Losing ATS in that game was actually predictable since it was sandwiched between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (two losses). I wonder if that overtime win over Oklahoma State on the road has put these guys heads back on straight. Last year these teams split their games, each winning on their home floor. Both teams have a ton of experience, and Kansas has the height. But, against a shooting team like Iowa, that may only be a factor if Iowa cannot grab the defensive rebounds, which they've actually been pretty good at. Perhaps the biggest advantage Iowa has here is depth. Kansas just isn't that deep off the bench, and Iowa is going to push the pace. That is a given. Neither team turns it over much, and neither team creates a ton, either, which would make me think this is one game that may well go over the number, although 144 is a big number. On the flip side, Kansas hasn't had a road game come anywhere near this number except for their win at Ohio State way back when. Conversely, the last nine Iowa State games have gone over this number. Hard to think, after rethinking, that another "over" is that easy, and that Kansas won't mitigate SOME of ISU's shooting and have just enough deliberate possessions to keep it under given that is that Iowa State simply does not go to the free throw line, and that could be costly if their not hitting their jump shots. This is surely another one of those games that the most talented team (with the better stats) may not win. Clearly the biggest home game for ISU this season, if not for several seasons, and just like Marquette, you got to wonder how much of this game will be won by emotion and how much be sheer talent. Kansas is tied for the Big 12 lead with K-State, who they've beaten twice. After this game the Jayhawks have to "gimme" games against WVU (sorry Dub) and T-Tech at home before finishing up at Baylor, in a game that may not mean much, other than to Kansas' designs on a high seed. Given ISU's relatively low RPI their really playing for revenge and a top four seed, which is obviously a lot, but a loss here would hurt Kansas far more than ISU going forward. One other point of interest is although Kansas has had a relatively easy (if there is such a thing) conference schedule, Iowa State has played, to date, the easiest Conference schedule. So, not unlike the Syracuse game, we have the "trendy" Iowa State team at home against the more "talented" Kansas team. With that in mind, I will have to work harder to find the winner(s) here.

Villanova at Seton Hall: Well, Villanova has all of a sudden become the trendy team to take, and is more than a one possession road favorite. Does Seton Hall suck that bad? I don't think so. However, they only other time in conference play this season they were a road favorite was at DePaul, who they promptly destroyed. Less than a week ago Seton Hall was only a five point underdog at home to Marquette, a game they lost by nearly twenty. A couple of weeks ago they were +5.5 at home to Cincinnati, and lost by six. So, just to put things in perspective, that would thereby put Villanova in the same class as Marquette, and as fate would have it Villanova just beat the Golden Eagles. See how this all starts to make sense after a while! A month ago I would have taken Seton Hall without even thinking about it, but please refer back to paragraph one and this weekend, when I said that good teams start winning and covering this time of year. I know Villanova beat UConn on the road (they've won at DePaul and South Florida as well) but that UConn win was right after the Huskies had beaten Syracuse, and again, predictable. The value here could also like in the total. Villanova scores 27% of their points from the line, which is bar none the highest number in the country. Seton looks at this game as perhaps one of their last chances to actually win a game. Both teams have serious turnover issues at times. Villanova is good, and playing well, but they simply aren't as talented (and are much younger) than some of the teams they're mentioned with, and the one thing they do not do is defend the perimeter. So, I have to think Seton may be jacked up enough to run with Villanova and this one goes over. They very early money at Pinnacle pushed this to -4 while it still sits at -3.5 most other places. Remember it doesn't take much money to move a line in the very early stages, and with CRIS and Greek still sitting at +3.5, that would, at least this early, make me lean Seton Hall. Obviously that could change in a nano-second, but we have to start, and end, somewhere. Still think this one may well inch over 130.

So, there is the full (almost) slate of Monday games. And Sunday, of the ten games either finished or well underway that involve upper echelon conferences, every single favorite has covered and/or is at the moment. See paragraph one, and how I remember this is that last March that trend did the same thing and I was way behind it. I was also trying to get ready for baseball and spread entirely too thin. Not doing that again, as it is the dictionary definition of insanity. We learn from our mistakes, and do not need six weeks to get ready for baseball. If we hadn't had three straight winning seasons, I'd worry about it. For now, I am only concerned with finding all our clients and anyone else that has the desire to read, more winners than losers.

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Pucking the Trends: This Week's Best NHL Bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of Feb. 17-23.

HOT TEAM

Chicago Blackhawks (3-0 SU)

Chicago improved to 14-0-3 after posting a 2-1 victory over the San Jose Sharks on Friday, setting the record for most games without a regulation loss to start a season. The lowly Blue Jackets visit the United Center Sunday, and then Edmonton rolls into the Windy City on Monday.

COLD TEAM

Buffalo Sabres (0-4 SU)

Not even a coaching change could spark this team. The axe dropped on long-time coach Lindy Ruff because of the Sabres’ poor start and now interim head coach Ron Rolston has the daunting task of cleaning up the mess. Buffalo travels to the Sunshine State this week for clashes with the Lightning and Panthers.

BEST OVER PLAY

Philadelphia Flyers (4-0 over/under)

The Flyers are back on track after a slow start, posting wins in three of their last four games. Philadelphia has found the back of the net 20 times during that stretch and Scott Hartnell has returned from injury to provide an added offensive punch. The Flyers continue their five-game homestand Monday when the Maple Leafs visit Wells Fargo Center.

BEST UNDER PLAY

San Jose Sharks (0-3 over/under)

After opening the season with seven straight wins, the Sharks have dropped nine of their last 10 games. San Jose has scored an average of 1.2 goals per game during the losing skid, resulting in its stellar 4-12-1 O/U mark. San Jose returns to the Shark Tank for three contests with the Avalanche, Red Wings and Predators this week.

Surveying the schedule:

-The Edmonton Oilers begin a daunting nine-game road trip Monday in Chicago. The Oilers will play those nine contests over 17 days and have been an excellent under play away from Rexall Place (1-6 O/U).

-The New York Islanders begin a seven-game homestand Sunday when they host the Hurricanes, but that isn't necessarily a good thing for New York. The Isles have a horrendous 2-6 SU record at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum.

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Bank Shots: NBA Betting News & Notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

Last week’s edition was put on hold because of the NBA All-Star Weekend, so we’ve expanded this week’s article to include games from Feb. 11-23.

HOTTEST ATS

Miami Heat (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS)

The Heat are on an absolute tear, picking up wins in 10 straight games. LeBron and Co. have also ripped off seven consecutive covers heading into Sunday’s clash with the Cavaliers. Sacramento and Memphis visit South Beach later this week.

COLDEST ATS

Milwaukee Bucks (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS)

The Bucks have been fade material for the entire month of February, posting a 1-9 ATS mark. However, Milwaukee has been a great bet on the road (15-11 ATS). The Bucks have a tough back-to-back in Dallas and Houston on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning home for a pair of games.

BEST OVER PLAY

Oklahoma City Thunder (1-3 SU, 4-0 Over/under)

The Thunder halted a season-high three-game losing streak with a 127-111 win over the lowly T-Wolves Friday. Oklahoma City has played over the number in four straight and six of its last seven contests thanks to its potent offense, which averages 106.7 points per game. Chicago visits Sunday before OKC hosts the Hornets Wednesday.

BEST UNDER PLAY

Washington Wizards (3-2 SU, 1-4 over/Under)

It’s no secret the Wizards are a great bet with a 33-19-2 ATS mark, but Washington is also satisfying under bettors with its 21-31-2 O/U record. The Wiz shipped Jordan Crawford to the Celtics at the trade deadline, putting even more pressure on John Wall and Bradley Beal to carry the offense moving forward. Washington is at red-hot Toronto Monday before returning home for three games.

Scouting the schedule:

-The Atlanta Hawks edged the Bucks 103-102 Saturday in the first contest of their current six-game road trip. The Hawks are in Detroit Monday before heading west for four tough games in Utah, Phoenix, L.A. (Lakers) and Denver. Atlanta has been a better bet on the road (14-12 ATS) than it has at home (10-16-2 ATS) this season.

-The Portland Trail Blazers are mired in a seven-game losing skid and will try to stop the bleeding when Boston visits Sunday. The Blazers are a much better team at home, posting a 17-9 SU record at the Rose Garden. Denver, Minnesota and Charlotte will also visit the Rose Garden over the next eight days.

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Marquette
Seton Hall
Iowa St

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4_SEASONS CBB Power Play of the Day
KANSAS ST -19.5

4_SEASONS NHL Power Play of the Day
ANAHEIM DUCKS +138

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Steve Fezzik Best Bet

Iowa St vs Kansas Over 144

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Washington won six of its last eight games (14-9-1 AU). Toronto won five of its last six games (1-4 last five HF).
-- Hawks won four of their last five games (6-5 AF).
-- Jazz won three of their last four games (7-4 last 11 HF).
-- Nuggets won last seven home games (5-2 vs spread). Lakers won four of their last five games (4-7 AU).

Cold Teams
-- Detroit lost three of its last four games (8-7 HU).
-- Celtics lost three of last four games (6-9-2 AU).

Totals
-- Four of last five Washington games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Atlanta's last eight games.
-- Four of last five Utah games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Denver games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Celtics are 2-7-2 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Lakers are 4-1-1 vs spread when playing 2nd day in row on road.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Flyers won three of their last four games.
-- Canadiens won six of their last seven games. Ottawa won its last four games, giving up a total of six goals.
-- Dallas Stars won four of their last five road games.
-- Blackhawks are 15-0-3, still haven't lost a game in regulation.
-- Anaheim won last six games, five by a goal, four in OT/SO. Kings won five of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Toronto lost three of its last four road games.
-- Predators lost four of last five games, got shut out in last two.
-- Oilers lost seven of their last ten games.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine Philly games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Montreal games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Edmonton-Chicago games went over.
-- Under is 3-0-2 in last five Los Angeles games.

Series records
-- Flyers won nine of last eleven games against Toronto.
-- Home side won last five Montral-Ottawa games.
-- Dallas Stars are 6-8 in their last 14 visits to Nashville.
-- Edmonton won last three games vs Chicago, scoring 9-4-8 goals.
-- Kings won five of last seven games against Anaheim.

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CBB

-- Syracuse is 4-4 in last eight games after 18-1 start, losing three of last four road games; Orange won five of last seven games with Marquette, but lost 76-70 in last visit here two years ago. Big East home teams are 12-27 if spread is 5 or less points. Marquette is 7-0 at home in Big East, with last four wins by 10+ points- their last six wins overall are also by 10+. 46 points Syracuse scored Saturday were their least ever in Dome.
-- Kansas State beat Texas Tech 68-59 in Lubbock Feb 5, making 8-20 from arc; it was State's 6th straight series win, despite forcing only four turnovers. Tech lost last three visits here, by 12-34-19 points. Wildcats won seven of last eight games; they're 6-1 at home, with five of six wins by 9+ points. Tech lost its last eight games; they're 0-6 on Big X road, with five losses by 16+. Big X double digit home favorites are 12-5.
-- Villanova won five of last six games, winning at UConn, also beating Marquette; Wildcats won last ten games vs Seton Hall, winning four in row here, by 14-9-4-3 points. Seton Hall lost its last nine games, with five of last six losses by 11+ points. Big East home underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-16 vs spread. Pirates turn ball over 23.8% of time.
-- ESPN's first Big Monday visit to Ames in seven years; Iowa State got beat 97-89 in OT at Kansas Jan 9, Jayhawks' 14th win in last 15 series games- they lost by 8 here LY. Big X home teams are 9-13 when spread is 5 or less points. ISU was 14-38 from arc at Kansas, 16-35 inside arc; they're 7-0 in Big X home games this year, and scored 86+ points in last four games. Kansas lost two of last three on road, with win in double OT at Oklahoma State.

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/25/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3273-1112 (.746)
ATS: 1506-1544 (.494)
ATS Vary Units: 4324-4651 (.482)
Over/Under: 417-397 (.512)
Over/Under Vary Units: 435-467 (.482)

Big 12 Conference
Kansas 73, IOWA STATE 72
KANSAS STATE 80, Texas Tech 53

Big East Conference
MARQUETTE 64, Syracuse 63
Villanova 67, SETON HALL 59

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
DELAWARE STATE 60, Hampton 55
FLORIDA A&M 68, South Carolina State 60
Savannah State 57, BETHUNE-COOKMAN 53
UMES 53, Howard 51

Northeast Conference
BRYANT 85, Sacred Heart 73
Quinnipiac 80, CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE 76

Southwestern Athletic Conference
ALABAMA A&M 65, Prairie View A&M 64
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF 68, Jackson State 58
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE 72, Grambling State 53
Texas Southern 69, ALABAMA STATE 59

Non-Conference
HOUSTON BAPTIST 81, New Orleans 65

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/25/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 538-266 (.669)
ATS: 428-397 (.519)
ATS Vary Units: 1138-1020 (.527)
Over/Under: 428-399 (.518)
Over/Under Vary Units: 604-543 (.527)

TORONTO 97, Washington 93
Atlanta 96, DETROIT 95
DENVER 111, L.A. Lakers 104
UTAH 99, Boston 94

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

02/25/13 Predictions

Season: 93-72 (.564)

PHILADELPHIA 4, Toronto 3
OTTAWA 3, Montreal 2
NASHVILLE 3, Dallas 2
CHICAGO 4, Edmonton 2
LOS ANGELES 3, Anaheim 2

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