2-27-13

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Washington won five of its last seven games.
-- Canadiens won six of last eight games (losses in OT/SO). Toronto won three in row at home, seven of last ten overall.
-- Ducks won six of their last seven games.
-- Los Angeles won six of its last seven games. Red Wings won last two games, scoring 12 goals.

Cold teams
-- Flyers are 4-5 in their last nine games.
-- Predators lost three in row on road, four of last six overall.

Totals
-- Last five Philly games went over the total.
-- 13 of last 16 Toronto-Montreal games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 13-4-1 in last eighteen Nashville games.
-- Over is 3-0-2 in last five Detroit-LA games.

Series records
-- Flyers won three of last four games vs Washington.
-- Maple Leafs won three of last four games with Montreal.
-- Ducks beat Nashville twice this year, both 3-2 in SO.
-- Kings lost four of last five games with Detroit.

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Hockey Crusher
Anaheim Ducks -120 over Nashville Predators
(System Record: 21-1, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 21-15

Basketball Crusher
Georgia Tech -1 over Maryland
(System Record: 66-4, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 66-48-1

Soccer Crusher
Anderlecht + Zulte Waregem UNDER 3
This match is happening in Belgium
(System Record: 362-14, lost last game)
Overall Record: 362-315-43

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Gold Medal Club Selections 27/02/2013
CBB:
#723 Delaware -5.5
#797 San Diego State +5

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Michigan
UConn
Texas

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB FRESNO ST at COLORADO ST.

Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (FRESNO ST) revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite.
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
5-4 this year. ( 55.6% 0.6 units )

CBB NORTHEASTERN at GEORGIA ST.

Play Against - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NORTHEASTERN) revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points, off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.
54-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.1% 32.3 units )

CBB SAN DIEGO ST at NEW MEXICO

Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 55.5 to 60.5 revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off an upset win as an underdog.
262-161 since 1997. ( 61.9% 84.9 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA GOLDEN STATE at NEW YORK

Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
7-4 this year. ( 63.6% 2.6 units )

NBA MILWAUKEE at HOUSTON

Play Against - Any team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a home favorite
57-25 since 1997. ( 69.5% 29.7 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

NBA PHOENIX at SAN ANTONIO

Play On - Road underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (PHOENIX) being called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents on the season
113-61 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.9% 45.9 units )
15-11 this year. ( 57.7% 2.9 units )

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KB Hoops

8 units LSU -1
8 units Georgetown -2
6 units Mississippi -8.5
5 units Georgia Tech PK
5 units Oklahoma -2.5
4 units Baylor -1

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Paul Leiner

100* Creighton -7.5

50* UCLA -8

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HANDICAPPING KINGS

JIMMY

7:00PM Western Michigan vs Toledo
[742] Toledo -2 -110

7:35PM Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs
[53] UNDER 5 -110

8:05PM New Orleans Hornets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
[707] UNDER 203 -110

11:30PM Arizona State vs UCLA
[804] UCLA -8 -110

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5Lines

Total Line for 02/27/2013

(Won last 4 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Orlando Magic : u206
Cost: -110

Run Line for 02/27/2013

(Won last 3 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Memphis Grizzlies : -7.5
Cost: -110

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MajorCovers 2/27

Baylor -1

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NCAAB

Wednesday, February 27

Searching for Cinderella: What to look for in NCAA upsets

In less than a month, college basketball bettors will be enthralled by a handful of Cinderella teams making improbable runs in the NCAA tournament. By that time though, it will be too late to cash in on those surprise squads.

Bettors will look back to February for signs of those teams turning the corner as contenders and wonder, “Why didn’t I see that coming?”

If you would rather be the guy saying “I told you so” and making money on those underdog runs, now is the time to start sizing up possible Cinderella teams. They can come from small mid-major leagues, like VCU in 2011 or Butler in 2010-11, or could be under our nose the entire year in a major conference, like UConn in 2011.

We asked some of sports betting's sharpest minds what they look for when trying the glass slipper on a potential Cinderella team as the schedule moves toward March:

Non-conference success

Probable Cinderella teams can show their true colors as early as November by putting together a strong effort against non-conference foes. Many programs load up on major-conference competition in order to jack their RPI and strength of schedule, giving bettors an idea of how they’ll react against tougher and unknown opponents.

“Teams playing in poor conferences that played a meaningless non-conference schedule likely will not come close to getting out of the first round,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo, who instead points to teams like Long Beach State, South Dakota State, and Robert Morris as potential Cinderella’s thanks to their stout non-conference calendar.

Experience and chemistry

Whether it be a roster packed with upperclassmen or past tournament success, experience is worth its weight in gold come March – especially when taking on some of the younger major-conference squads.

Pro handicapper Teddy Covers is keeping a close eye on Middle Tennessee State out of the Sun Belt Conference. The Blue Raiders returned eight key players from a team that went deep into the NIT last season, missing out on the NCAA due to an upset loss in the conference tournament.

“You want to make some money in the tournament – and even in the Sun Belt tournament – bet on that team,” Teddy says of MTSU. “They are really, really good and completely off the radar. They’re smart, know how to win on the road, and rebound very well.”

Robert Ferringo of Doc’s Sports looks for mismatches in cohesion come March. While some of the top teams may be loaded in pro-groomed freshman talent, they haven’t played together long. Some smaller programs have had the same core for three or four years, owning the edge in chemistry and experience.

“Put them up against an overrated or over-seeded team or just a team that isn't motivated or isn't taking the mid-major seriously, and you get that first upset,” say Ferringo. “Once that happens, the momentum gets going and anything can happen.”

Defense

When talking to experts about what stands out most for potential Cinderellas, defense is the one attribute that comes up over and over again. All of them would take a lockdown defense over a potent offense any day of the week during March Madness.

“I like teams that are battle tested and can play a stingy brand of defense,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “For an underdog to go deep it has to be able to frustrate its superior opponents. Explosive, high-scoring teams are great, but what happens when they go cold? Scrappy teams that can win games played in the 50s and 60s are the ones I look to back in an underdog role throughout the tournament.”

One of the names being brought up is Stephen F. Austin out of the Southland Conference. The Lumberjacks rank tops in the country in points allowed (50.9), limiting opponents to just 37.3 percent shooting, including 27.4 percent from beyond the arc. They aren’t just building those stats versus weak opponents either. Stephen F. Austin has wins over Tulsa, San Diego, Oklahoma and Long Beach State.

Momentum

As Connecticut proved a couple years ago, the most dangerous team in the tournament is the hottest team. The Huskies shocked the Big East for the 2011 conference crown and parlayed that into an improbable NCAA run, which ended in a national championship.

Plenty of teams are rolling toward the postseason, namely Saint Louis and Georgetown, which have each won nine straight games heading into this week.

“Saint Louis is hot, including back-to-back upsets of ranked teams,” says Covers Expert Jesse Schule. “Nobody wants to play these guys right now.”

The pointspread is great way to gauge just how well a team is playing heading into and during its conference tournament. The oddsmakers’ numbers give you an idea of the expectations on a team, and whether or not they are playing above or below that bar.

“You want a team that covered the spread in all two or three of their conference tournament games,” says Ferringo. “Even if they were the overwhelming favorite to win their tournament, you still want to see them go out and lay the wood to opponents.”

Silent superstars

The NCAA tournament has made household names out of unknown ballers. There are more and more pros coming out of smaller conferences each year.

Past Cinderellas like Butler with Gordon Hayward, Davidson with Stephen Curry and Western Kentucky with Courtney Lee, have put their teams on their back come tourney time and given the favorites fits.

Nate Wolters, a 6-foot-4 guard out of South Dakota State, could be the next unknown talent to shine on the national stage.

He’s averaging 22.9 points per game – third in the country – and has the Jackrabbits in line as the next Cinderella out of the Summit League. Wolters, who scored 19 points in a near upset of Baylor in the Round of 64 last season, dropped 53 points in a win over IUPU earlier this month.

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Betting Line Moves NCAAB 2/27

776 smu -12
739 central michigan +5

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DAVID BANKS

February 27, 2013



Golden State Warriors vs. New York Knicks The Golden State Warriors (33-23, 29-26-1 ATS) are hoping to continue their mastery vs. Eastern Conference teams this season when they visit the New York Knicks (33-20, 25-26-2 ATS) at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY Wednesday at 8:05 ET on ESPN. Pending their Tuesday night result at Indiana, the Warriors are 15-5 straight up and 14-6 ATS vs. the East this season, including 8-3 straight up on the road with five outright upsets as road underdogs, which is their role here. The Knick meantime may have snapped a four-game losing streak vs. the Philadelphia 76ers Sunday, but they again failed to cover the spread and are on an ugly 0-6-1 ATS skid.The Warriors in fact first gained some national attention this season with a 6-1 Eastern road trip in December that included a win in Miami that really turned a lot of heads, as it became apparent that this is an exciting young team with a bright future. Golden State has a prolific scoring backcourt with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack off the bench, and it has All-Star David Lee up front who is averaging 19.2 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists. The Warriors are averaging 101.2 points per game while playing at the sixth fastest pace in the NBA with a tempo rating of 96.7 possessions per contest, but because of that, the Golden State defense often gets overlooked. Yes, the Warriors only rank 25th in points allowed at 101.4 per game, but that is solely because of that pace as the fact of the matter is that that they rank seventh in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at 44.0 percent and fifth in three-point defense at 34.2 percent. They are also a good rebounding team ranking third in the league with 44.9 boards per game, with 33.8 of those rebounds coming on the defensive glass.Now the Knicks rank sixth in the NBA in three-point percentage at 37.4 percent, which is behind Golden State in second at 39.1 percent, but the Knicks actually rely on the three-pointers more. That is because New York launches 29.0 attempts from beyond the arc per game compared to 19.7 for the Warriors, with the Knicks making an average of 10.8 of them compared to 7.7 for Golden State. That is where the Warriors' underrated three-point defense and defensive rebounding come into play, as the Knicks may not get as many open three-point looks as they have become accustomed to getting, and they do not figure to get many second opportunities with Lee & Co. clearing the boards. The New York defense has also taken a step back as of late, as while the Knicks have allowed 96.3 points per game on 45.8 percent shooting over the entire season, those numbers have ballooned to 102.4 points on 46.6 percent shooting including an awful 39.4 percent on three-point attempts over the last five games.The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings and an impressive 32-13 ATS in their last 45 games vs. Atlantic Division foes. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning straight up
PICK: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +6.5

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Daily NHL Shots on Goal February 27, 2013 6:12 AM by Nick Pellegrino

53 Montreal-Toronto, UNDER 5 (Even)

55 Nashville-Anaheim, OVER 5 (+110)

Results

2013 NHL Tues (1-1-0) Overall Record: 50-49-0