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Hockey Crusher
Phoenix Coyotes -133 over Minnesota Wild (System Record: 22-1, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 22-15
Basketball Crusher
Clemson +3.5 over North Carolina (System Record: 67-4, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 67-48-1
Soccer Crusher Cercle Brugge + Club Brugge OVER 2.5 This match is happening in Belgium (System Record: 363-14, won last game)
Overall Record: 363-315-43
Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (SANTA CLARA) average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's)
172-100 since 1997. ( 63.2% 62.0 units )
14-7 this year. ( 66.7% 6.3 units )
CBB ARKANSAS ST at N TEXAS
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (ARKANSAS ST) average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games.
229-131 since 1997. ( 63.6% 74.4 units )
19-13 this year. ( 59.4% -0.1 units )
CBB OREGON ST at OREGON
Play Against - Home favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (OREGON) good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO) after 15+ games.
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days
90-46 since 1997. ( 66.2% 39.4 units )
NBA PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CHICAGO) after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
141-98 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.0% 47.9 units )
20-14 this year. ( 58.8% 2.6 units )
NBA PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO
Play Against - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (CHICAGO) off a close home loss by 3 points or less, second half of the season
52-22 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.3% 27.8 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )
Duke at UVA: Opening this game up at a PK is simply begging for people to take Duke, and perhaps the biggest reason is the situation. Duke's got their rematch with Miami back home on Saturday. One might think they'll be looking ahead, and clearly to some extent they are. However, they're also playing for a number one seed, so perhaps not as much as one might expect. Still doesn't mean I'd endorse UVA. It's obviously their GOY and they haven't lost at home this season, except for way back when against Delaware. We know UVA will slow it down. Duke does have the #1 rated three point defense in the Conference, but they can be beaten inside if UVA has the patience. They do. I simply really have a hard time taking road teams this time of year. That total sitting at 129 might normally be an auto-under in a UVA game, but with the way they've been scoring, it's tempting to think it goes over.
Gonzaga at BYU: Another team playing for a potential number one seed, and on the road. Gonzaga has the Conference regular season wrapped up, and BYU cannot really gain Conference Tournament seeding one way or the other. They lost by 20 at Gonzaga earlier, and except for a blip against the Dons have won all their home games this season. This is their last home game, and we will pay a premium for taking Gonzaga, so I'd have to say BYU or forget about it, because I simply cannot lay 6 or more points on the road against a team that knows it's opponent so well. BYU will simply try to run them out of the gym. Although they don't turn it over, they're simply going to have to hit their shots because they're not a great rebounding team. Since Gonzaga is so experienced, I would expect them NOT to get drawn into a track meet, and think that perhaps that total is too high. Yeah, they could score 160, but I don't think they will.
North Carolina at Clemson: Another road favorite that's lost a fair bit of value overnight, it seems. The game means everything to the Tar Heels because they're a bit of a bubble team, and also need to win to stay in at least fourth in the ACC for seeding purposes. Semi-tough spot here because they play FSU on Saturday. Not that the 'Noles are a worthy opponent, but there is some recent history. They beat FSU in Tallahassee earlier this season, which was double pay-back for FSU not only beating them in the ACC Tournament last season, but for beating them by 33 at home last year. So, I can indeed see this young 'Heels team not as focused as perhaps they should be. Tigers can be tough at home, but what I really don't like about UNC is they simply don't get to the FT line often enough (that WILL matter for MANY teams in the Tournament) and even when they do, they're well below average in FT %. Obviously Clemson will slow (or try) it down, while UNC will wanna run. Have to think this is nothing but a close game, one way or the other, and if I'd have been able to take or release the +4 last night, I probably would have. Now, it's a wait and see, although at +3 it still has some value, IMO. Highly doubt they go over the total. If they do, Clemson might be in trouble, so Clemson-under or UNC over. Lean to the former.
Detroit at Temple: Perhaps one of the more interesting games. Temple can ill-afford to lose this game, as they are currently one of the "last four in", while Detroit's only realistic hope is to win the Horizon League Championship, probably by beating Valpo. Thankfully for them there's no Butler, but the point to THIS game is that it means much more to Temple. That CAN be a bad thing since we know Detroit has some talent (seriously under achieved again) and can play relatively relaxed. Both teams are uber-experienced, and the Owls defense isn't the one we've come to expect. Since they both do an excellent job of not turning the ball over, and shoot free throws well, I'd lean to the over here. Neither team is a great rebounding team and both teams will run given the chance. And of course with the magnitude of this game and the potential for style point for the Owls, if they do get ahead they won't let up by their own accord. But, of course I don't see a total posted. Pussies. I can't take Detroit here. Although these teams don't play each other, I trust Fran Dunphy more than I trust Ray McCallum to have their respective teams ready, and Detroit's defense is not backable on the road. Perhaps using Temple ML in a parlay.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Indiana Pacers There is a terrific non-conference NBA matchup Thursday when the Central Division leading Indiana Pacers (36-21, 33-24 ATS) host the Pacific Division leading Los Angeles Clippers (41-18, 33-26 ATS) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis at 7:05 ET. The Pacers statistically have the best defense in the NBA, and they have been pummeling teams at home lately because the offense has also caught fire. The Clippers are the third seeds in the Western Conference and they own the fourth best record in the NBA at 41-18, but they could be at a disadvantage here as besides Indiana playing awesome basketball at home, Los Angeles had to fly across the country following a home game on Tuesday.The Pacers own one of the best home records in the NBA at 24-5, but they have been absolutely dominant in their last four games in Indianapolis, winning all four games by double-digits with an average margin of victory of +25.3 points! The latest triumph was a 108-97 win over the second place team in the Pacific Division chasing the Clippers, the Golden State Warriors. Indiana is unquestionably playing the best defense in the NBA this season, as they lead the entire league in scoring defense (89.6 points per game), field goal percentage allowed (41.3 percent) and three-point defense (32.0 percent)! The one knock against the Pacers is playing in the weaker of the two conferences in the East, although they are a perfect 2-0 vs. the Miami Heat this season and many see them as the biggest threat to Miami in the East. That is especially true if Indiana continues it recent offensive resurgence, as a team that is still ranked only 24th in the NBA in points scored with 94.0 points per game is suddenly averaging a robust 112.0 points in those last four home blowouts! The Pacers should also be excited about hosting one of the league's elite teams here.The Clippers could very well be the better team in this matchup, as their record speaks for itself and they rank fourth in the league in points allowed at 93.9 per game and fifth in field goal percentage against at 43.8 percent while usually facing much better offenses than Indiana faces, and the Clippers have been far superior offensively over the course of the entire season, ranking ninth in points scored (100.5) and fourth in field goal percentage (47.4 percent). However, the Pacers have beaten all comers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse this season going 9-2 straight up vs. Western Conference foes, and the long trip from Los Angeles after playing late Tuesday night is an obvious concern. Also the Clips are somewhat surprisingly just 6-7 ATS on the road vs. the Eastern Conference this season. The Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring at least 100 points in their previous game, while the Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Also the home teams are 6-0 in the last six head-to-head meetings.
Pick: INDIANA PACERS-1
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