2-28-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Falco

CBB

Middle Tenn St
Canisus
Over BYU-Zags

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo 10* CBB Supreme Annihilator

Drexel

[Can'tPickAWinner]

charlie sports

500
old dominon over 125
pacer under 192
76ers + 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob

Dr. Bob Best Bets


COLLEGE
2 Star Selection
South Dakota (pick) over IUPUI (Rotation: 569)
28-Feb-13 04:30 PM Pacific
IUPUI is one of the bottom few teams in the nation and the Jaguars went from horrible to really horrible when their only good player, John Hart, was lost for the season to injury. Hart was an all around good player that led IUPUI in scoring while also being their best defensive player (1.4 steals per game) and the Jaguars are just 1-9 ATS in 10 games without their star. My ratings would favor South Dakota by 1 1/2 points using all games for the entire season so the line on this game is not adjusted for IUPUI's much worse play without Hart and my ratings favor South Dakota by 5 points. I'll take South Dakota in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or better.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at -2 or better.

3 Star Selection
TEXAS ARLINGTON (-11) over San Jose State (Rotation: 520)
28-Feb-13 05:00 PM Pacific
San Jose State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games and that slide is likely to continue tonight. The Spartans are horrible on both sides of the ball and they've lost by an average of 19.8 points in 8 games against the 5 teams in the WAC with winning records, including a 19 points home loss to Arlington. My ratings favor Arlington by 16 points in this game and I'll take Texas Arlington in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -12 points.

Play Strength: 3-Stars at -11 or less, 2-Stars up to -12.

3 Star Selection
San Francisco (+2) over SAN DIEGO (Rotation: 533)
28-Feb-13 06:00 PM Pacific
San Francisco has always been better in conference play under coach Rex Walters than they've been in early season non-conference games and the Dons are now 25-4 ATS as a conference dog of 2 points or more, which includes a perfect 7-0 ATS mark this season. In addition to the team trend, San Diego applies to a negative 4-32-1 ATS subset of a 32-77-4 ATS situation that plays against teams coming home after 3 straight road losses. USF lost their home game to San Diego 66-70 back in January but the Dons are 14-4 ATS in revenge games and it's certainly not likely that San Diego makes 50% of their 3-point shots again (they were 11 for 22 from long range in that game only still only won by 4 points). My ratings make this game a pick, so we have some line value, and I'll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more and for 2-Stars at less than +2 points.

Play Strength: 3-Stars at +2 or more, 2-Stars at less than +2.

4 Star Selection
VIRGINIA (-1) over Duke (Rotation: 540)
28-Feb-13 06:00 PM Pacific
Duke is coming off a couple of blowout wins over bad teams Virginia Tech and Boston College, but the Blue Devils have had trouble against good teams and on the road without star F Ryan Kelly. Duke is about the same offensively without Kelly but his defense has been missed, as the Blue Devils' compensated defensive efficiency (points per possession) is 0.06 ppp higher than their season rating in the 12 games Kelly has missed, which works out to about 4 points per game. Duke's recent blowout wins over bad teams disguise that fact that their defense is still an issue, as Virginia Tech and Boston College combined for 56.3% on their 2-point shots against Duke in those losses. Duke was able to win big because those opponents shot a randomly poor 20.6% from 3-point range while the Blue Devils were particularly hot (i.e. lucky) from 3-point range (19 of 32 for 59.4%).

Virginia is a good defensive team that has allowed just 29.8% on opponent's 3-point shots and the Cavaliers have an efficient offense that will take advantage of Duke's weakened interior defense. Virginia also isn't likely to struggle from 3-point range as other Duke opponents have done recently, as the Cavs are 6th in the nation at 40.4% from beyond the 3-point arc. Virginia is also an improved team with Jontel Evans running the point, as Evans' 5.3 assists per game were missed when he was out with injury earlier in the season. In fact, Virginia is 8.3 points better in the games with Evans than they were in the games without him, so they've been underrated since he's returned to the lineup (they're 12-5 ATS with Evans). Virginia coach Tony Bennett is at his best when he's had time to prepare (33-13 ATS in regular season games with 3 or more days off between games) and Bennett's Cavaliers are 22-5 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .700 or better (5-1 ATS this season), including 14-2 ATS with 3 or more days to prepare (7-0 ATS the last two seasons). Virginia is also 12-1 ATS in their last 13 home games with the only spread loss being by just 1/2 a point (a 3 point win as a 3 1/2 point favorite against NC State), so they've been tough to beat at home (15 straight wins since losing to Delaware in a game that Evans didn't play).

Duke has struggled on the road against good teams without Kelly, losing by 8 at NC State, by 27 at Miami, and by 2 at Maryland. The Blue Devils are also in a letdown mode after their two spread covering blowout wins over bad teams, as Duke is just 15-37-1 ATS in road games after 2 or more wins and a spread win if they're visiting a team with a win percentage of greater than .650. So, beating up on Virginia Tech and and Boston College (but only because of 3-point shooting variance) does not mean that the overrated Blue Devils can win on the road against a good and underrated Virginia squad. My ratings, based on Duke without Kelly and Virginia with Evans, favors Virginia by 3 1/2 points and the Cavaliers apply to a very good 96-29-4 ATS situation that won with U Conn +1 1/2 against Georgetown last night. I passed on that game because I thought the line was too low but the line value is strongly in our favor tonight. We have a combination of a strong general situation, strong team trends, and significant line value and I'll take Virginia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 3-Stars up to -2 points (2-Stars up to -3 points).

Play Strength: 4-Stars at -1 or better, 3-Stars up to -2 points and 2-Stars up to -3.

3 Star Selection
Loyola Marymount (+14) over SANTA CLARA (Rotation: 549)
28-Feb-13 08:00 PM Pacific
Loyola Marymount beat Santa Clara 84-80 on January 10th and the Lions haven't won since, notching 12 straight losses. However, most of those losses came without point guard Chase Flint and the Lions have covered 3 of 4 since Flint returned to the lineup with the lone spread loss being a 2 point loss as a 1 1/2 point dog to San Francisco. The Lions were just 3-7 ATS without Flint and the loss of starting F Ayodeji Ebgeyemi to a season ending injury is actually a blessing given that new starter Alex Osborne is a better defender (1.3 steals per game in just 21.1 minutes) and shoots 51% compared to Ebgeyemi's 41.6% shooting. Loyola has been considerably better in 3 games with Osborne in the starting lineup and Flint back at the point and the Lions continue to play hard despite their disappointing season. During their 12 game losing streak the Lions have only lost by two games by more than 11 points and both of those were to #2 ranked Gonzaga. Santa Clara may have the revenge motive but the Broncos apply to a very negative 9-54-3 ATS last home game big favorite situation and that angle is just 2-17-1 ATS if the home team has revenge. Santa Clara, meanwhile, is just 1-6 ATS as a favorite with revenge under coach Kerry Keating and the Broncos are just 4-18 ATS in their last 22 lined home games. Since Keating has been the coach Santa Clara is just 21-46-1 ATS in home games when not an underdog of at least 7 points (17-35 ATS as a favorite) and my ratings favor the Broncos by just 12 points in this game using the Lions' games with Flint in the lineup. I'll take Loyola Marymount in a 3-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +12 points.

Play Strength: 3-Stars at +13 or more, 2-Stars down to +12.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting line moves
553 cal santa barbara + 8 1/2
582 northern arizona - 4 1/2
588 sacramento state + 7 1/2

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BURNS 10* NCAA Personal Favorite
MANHATTAN PK

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John Anthony Sports

Chicago Bulls
UC Davis

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Betting line moves

508 clemson +4
512 northwestern + 11

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Chip Chirimbes

Clemson +3.5

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moneymakers
san fran

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BURNS PERSONAL FAVORITE

MANHATTAN pk

Game is tomorrow 9pm Fairfield/Manhattan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Falco

Added play:

Western Illinois

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Thursday 2/28/13 Plays...

5* NORTHERN ARIZONA -5.5 (5:35PM PST)

4* PACIFIC -1 (8:05PM PST)

---LEGIT PICK'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--