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4-Unit Play. #835. Take Manhattan +7 over Loyola Maryland (Sunday @ 12pm est).
This is a game that Manhattan could win Outright. Manhattan has reeled off 7 of 9 victories in conference play and that have done with a stifling defense that ranks top 60 in the nation in most categories. This is the same team that held Fairfield to 31 points at home. They face a team that has been on a streak currently in conference play going 7-2 of late and this includes wins in overtime over Iona, beating Fairfield by 22 points on the road, beating top 120 Canisius by 13 at home, beating Rider by 11 points on the road and currently being on a 7-2 ATS streak. I like Manhattan to continue to do well as this is a game they can win Outright as they lost to Loyola Maryland by 10 points earlier this year at home and I certainly believe they could win this contest given how well they are playing and the points are nice as well. On a total of 114, to get the 7 points with a team that has revenge, who is playing well, in a conference game and that the Jaspers have had good road focus as they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road as well as the Greyhounds of Manhattan being 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when facing a team with a losing road record (meaning, Loyola has had trouble covering larger spreads), look for Manhattan to hang tough here on the road this early afternoon.
5 Units
LoyolaMaryland (-7) over Manhattan
Prediction: Loyola by 12-13
Comments: This is the last game of the regular season for these teams and in contests such as this the home team traditionally has a big edge. That said, there really are not any edges that Loyola does not have in this game. The Greyhounds have better talent, are quicker and more athletic and in their first meeting with Manhattan crushed the Jaspers, 51-41, on their home court while holding them to just 14 field goals for the entire game. Things should be just as easy for Loyola today and it should get it done in dominating fashion.
15 Units
Michigan State (+4½) over Michigan
Prediction: Michigan State by 4-5
Comments: It does not take much insight and imagination to make the case for either of these teams to win straight up and, as always, makes getting 4.5 points on a team with a 50-50 chance to win outright a true bonus. When these teams played three weeks ago in East Lansing, host Michigan State romped 75-52 as a 1.0 underdog and that certainly makes this a revenge game for a Michigan team that is unbeaten at home this season and comes into this game in major positive bounce form after a stunning 84-78 loss at Penn State. Michigan State is also in a strong positive bounce mode after back-to-back losses at home to Ohio State (21-7), 68-60, and at Indiana (24-4), 72-68. Michigan’s only edge is the home court and Michigan State finds its edge with the fact it has not played for a week and has had all that time to get ready for this game against its biggest rivalry. My money says the Spartans will get it done.
25 Units
La Clippers (-2½) over Thunder
Prediction: Clippers by 6-7
Comments: This game matches two of the best teams in the NBA but the edges have to go to Los Angeles in this one. The Clippers have been on quite a roll since Chris Paul returned from the injury list, winning four straight and standing 8-1 in their last nine games—and they have won those contests by an average of 15.5 points. No one questions just how good is Oklahoma City but it is of note the Thunder has lost its last three road games, all to teams that are not as talented as Los Angeles.
NBA Blowout Game Of Year
100 Units
Kings (-7½) over Bobcats
Prediction: Kings by 15-16
Comments: No one will ever mistake the Sacramento Kings for the Miami Heat but they are not absent talent and they play their best at home. In their last three home games, they have lost to San Antonio, 108-102, and have beaten Houston, 117-111, and Utah, 120-109. It also is of note those three games were the only three they have played in Sacramento in their last 16 outings. The Kings now get to play 13 of their last 18 at home and I do believe they will turn up the heat and far out-perform their current 20-40 won-lost record. Charlotte remains embarrassingly non-competitive, has lost five straight, is 4-21 in its last 25 games and comes into this off a 98-68 loss at Utah. The Kings should romp and stomp in this one.
Hot Teams
-- Miami won its last 13 games (covered last five on road). Knicks won last three games, by 6-4-8 points (2-0 HU).
-- Clippers won eight of last nine games (3-5 last eight HF). Thunder won three of last four (0-1-1 AU).
-- Memphis won eight of its last nine games (8-2 last ten AF).
-- Spurs won seven of their last nine games. (10-6-1 last 17 HF); Tony Parker is out (ankle).
-- Rockets won five of last six home games (10-2 last 12 HF).
-- Indiana won six of its last seven games (7-3 last 10 HF). Bulls won last two games, allowing 82-85 points (8-3 last 11 AU).
-- Lakers won four of their last five games (8-12 last 20 HF). Hawks won six of their last eight games (5-1 AU).
Cold Teams
-- Bobcats lost their last five games (2-5 last seven AU). Sacramento is 1-7 in its last eight games (6-4-1 HF).
-- 76ers lost seven of last eight games (3-8 last 11 AU). Washington lost its last two games, by 1-8 points (3-5 HF).
-- Orlando lost seven of last eight games (7-10 HU).
-- Pistons lost four of their last five games (3-6 last nine AU).
-- Mavericks lost three of last four games (9-2 last 11 AU).
Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Miami games went over the total.
-- Last three Oklahoma City games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Charlotte games stayed under the total. Over is 9-0-1 in last ten Sacramento games.
-- Seven of last nine Philly road games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Detroit games.
-- Last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Chicago road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Laker games went over the total. Under is 3-1-1 in Atlanta's last five road games.
Back-to-backs
-- 76ers are 3-10 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Bulls are 5-3 vs spread on road if they played night before.
5-Unit Play. #821 Take Villanova (+9.5) over Pittsburgh (12 p.m., Sunday March 3)
I didn't think much of these Wildcats at the beginning or even middle of the season. But they've proven themselves as one of the better bets in college basketball this season. 'Nova is 16-9 ATS this year, a far stretch from the 11-11 against the number which Pitt is for the season. And I know the Panthers are a tough out at home, but considering they routed Villanova by 15 in the first meeting in Philly, I think we're in a better position with them the second go-round, notably because they are playing much better ball coming into this clash. The 'Cats have also done well in Sunday games, going 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games to finish the week. I also consider that having given their last game away at Seton Hall earlier in the week, they'll be ready to go here.
2-Unit Play. Take #836 Loyola (-7) over Manhattan (Noon, Sunday, March 3)
Note: This should be a 1.5-Unit Play.
The Greyhounds lost a tough game on Friday to Iona. Their coach got T'd up. They blew a game late and had to hear about it from Iona. In short, I think they are going to be pissed today. And they are going to take it out on Manhattan. The Jaspers have been doing yeoman's work without George Beamon this year. But they are still a team that is much better at home than on the road, and they are still vulnerable because they go for long stretches without scoring.
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 130.5 Washington State at Washington (3:30 p.m., Sunday, March 3)
Neither one of these teams are exactly offensive juggernauts, but I can see some scoring today. It's a rivalry game between two teams that don't really have much to play for this time of the year. They are both going to max out. Washington State has been terribly defensively on the road this year, allowing their opponents to shoot 49 percent from the field, and they have mailed it in over the last month, allowing 69 or more points to six of seven opponents. (And the seventh opponent scored 67.) Outside of games against Arizona and Oregon, Washington has been able to score pretty freely on their home court. And the reason that they struggle so much with Oregon and Arizona (and to a certain extent, Colorado) is because those teams are so much bigger than the Huskies, who have no inside game. This one is going to be ugly. Neither team really has any type of good guard play. But, as I mentioned, I think this one is going to be played in the 60's and I expect both teams to kind of play above themselves because of the intensity of this game. If it loses, it will be spectacularly in a game that is like 48-41. But I don't see that. I think these two teams can walk and chew gum at the same time today. And if they can they will top 131.
1-Unit Play. Take #821 Villanova (+9.5) over Pittsburgh (Noon, Sunday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #833 N.C. State (-3) over Georgia Tech (6 p.m., Sunday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 146.5 Florida State at North Carolina (2 p.m., Sunday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #828 Washington (-2) over Washington State (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #832 Stanford (-5.5) over Utah (5 p.m.)
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