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15 Units
Louisville (-10) over Cincinnati
Prediction: Louisville by 15-16
Comments: Louisville is a team that started the season as a powerhouse and continues to confirm its status game after game. In fact, there is much to suggest Louisville there is no tougher true-grit team in college basketball. The Cardinals come into this game on a five-game win streak that began after a 5-overtime loss at Notre Dame. In order they have beaten St. John’s, 72-58, won at South Florida, 59-41, crushed Seton Hall, 79-61, and in their last two games, both on the road, won at DePaul, 79-58, and this past Saturday at Syracuse, 58-53. At no stop along the way have the Cardinals flinched. Cincinnati will certainly be a tough opponent but the Bearcats have a major weakness that sets them up to get buried tonight. Cincinnati is in a long shooting slump that finds them shooting 34.9% from the floor over their past 11 games. Tonight the Bearcats face a Louisville team that, while leading the Big East in scoring (73.8 points per game) has also become a lock-down defensive team. The Cardinals have permitted the opposition to average but 35.5% from the floor in their last five games—contests they won by an average of 15.2 points. With the possible exception of Duke, no team in the country is playing better than is Louisville and I am confident it will dominate this Bengals team.
25 Units
Montana (-1½) over Southern Utah
Prediction: Montana by 9-10
Comments: The first time these Big Sky Conference teams met this season, in Missoula, host Montana won 73-67, as a 13-point favorite. If one only took that score into consideration, it would be easy to go for Southern Utah in this game, but when one factors in all the outside elements, for me Montana has to be the side. The Grizzlies are a half game up on Weber State for the conference championship and all the post-season tournament perks that go with it and can truly wrap it up tonight. Montana has just two games to go after tonight and both of them are at home—against Sacramento State (14-13) and Northern Arizona (11-18)—and the Grizzlies will be favored to win these contests. This is the final home game of the season for Southern Utah and the Thunderbirds will get some lift from that but I do not think it will be enough to over the better talent of Montana. My bottom line says Montana will simply grind out the win and get it done by a margin that will cover the number.
50 Units
Bucks (-4½) over Jazz
Prediction: Bucks by 9-10
Comments: Milwaukee has won its last three games and seems well-positioned tonight to make it four in a row as it takes on a Utah team that may well be short-handed. Starting center Al Jefferson (17.74 points, 9.35 rebounds per game) and starting forward Paul Millsap (15.12 points, 7.32 rebounds per game) are both questionable tonight because of painful ankle injuries. Even if they should play, there is some question as to how effective they will be. The Bucks are playing their best basketball right now and have all the edges to get the win and the cover.
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