3-11-13

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Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of March 3-March 9.

Hottest ATS

Denver Nuggets (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

Denver continues to be a great bet (39-24-1 ATS) as well as a profitable over play (38-26 O/U). The Nuggets have won eight straight games, covering in seven of those contests. Denver visits Phoenix Monday before returning to Pepsi Center for two tough games against the Knicks and Grizzlies.

Coldest ATS

Charlotte Bobcats (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

Charlotte has dropped 10 straight games straight up and ATS, making it great fade material. The Bobcats host the Celtics Tuesday before heading to Toronto for a clash with the Raptors.

Best over play

Orlando Magic (1-3 SU, 3-1 over/under)

The Magic stayed true to their form as a good over play this past week. Orlando has played over the number in six of its last eight to improve its season O/U mark to a very profitable 34-25-4 for its over bettors. The Magic host Philadelphia and Los Angeles (Lakers) early this week before embarking on a four-game road trip.

Best under play

Minnesota Timberwolves (1-2 SU, 0-3 over/under)

The Timberwolves are devastated by injuries and had only nine healthy players on their roster this past week. Star F Kevin Love (hand) is targeting a mid-March return, but the T-Wolves could continue to struggle to score until he's healthy. Minnesota is averaging just 85.3 points per game over its last three games, nearly 10 points lower than its season average (94.7). The Timberwolves host Dallas Sunday and then San Antonio rolls into Minny on Tuesday.

Scouting the schedule:

-The Brooklyn Nets play nine of their next 11 games away from the Barclays Center. The Nets have been a good under play away from home, posting a 10-18-1 O/U mark.

-The Houston Rockets begin a season-long seven-game homestand Wednesday when the Phoenix Suns visit. The Rockets are 18-11 O/U at the Toyota Center.

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Tracking NBA season win totals at the three-quarter mark

Most NBA teams have played between 60 and 64 games, marking the unofficial three-quarter mark of the season.

Way back in October bettors placed their season win total wagers, so let’s check in and have a look at some teams that are approaching their established totals and a few that don’t have a prayer of meeting bettors’ expectations.

Three teams that have exceeded or are close to reaching their season win totals

Houston Rockets

Season win total: 32
Current wins: 34
Games left: 18

James Harden has been the difference, much to the delight of bettors that wagered on Houston to win more than 32 games.

Golden State Warriors

Season win total: 36.5
Current wins: 35
Games left: 18

It would take an epic collapse for the Warriors not to pay off those who took the over.

Portland Trail Blazers

Season win total: 34
Current wins: 29
Games left: 21

The Blazers are currently a sub-.500 team, but not at the Rose Garden where they boast an impressive 20-10 record.

Three teams that should exceed their season win totals

Brooklyn Nets

Season win total: 45.5
Current wins: 37
Games left: 19

Deron Williams and Joe Johnson would both have to fall to season-ending injuries in order for the Nets not to win 46 games.

Los Angeles Clippers

Season win total: 50
Current wins: 44
Games left: 18

The Clippers didn’t lose a game in the month of December, much to the delight of bettors that predicted they would eclipse the 50-win mark.

San Antonio Spurs

Season win total: 56.5
Current wins: 48
Games left: 19

This team finds a way to win even when All-Stars Tim Duncan and Tony Parker aren’t in the lineup.

Three teams that don’t have a prayer of reaching their season win totals

Los Angeles Lakers

Season win total: 56.5
Current wins: 32
Games left: 19

The Lakers are improving as the season progresses, but it's mathematically impossible for them to meet the expectations of oddsmakers this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Season win total: 41
Current wins: 21
Games left: 23

The chances of this team being .500 were shot down when star forward Kevin Love fell to injury.

Philadelphia 76ers

Season win total: 46.5
Current wins: 23
Games left: 21

The Sixers have only one win in their last 12 games. Hopefully you took the under.

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Thunder at Spurs: What bettors need to know

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-2.5, 208)

The battle for the top spot in the Western Conference takes center stage Monday night when streaking Oklahoma City invades San Antonio. The Thunder ran their winning streak to five with a 91-79 win over Boston on Sunday, pulling to within one game of the idle Spurs. Kevin Durant had 23 points and 11 rebounds as Oklahoma City improved to 28-4 at home. The Thunder won despite producing their lowest scoring output in nearly two months.

The Spurs were streaking as well as this much-anticipated matchup approached, but they laid an egg Friday against Portland. The 136-106 setback was the second-worst ever for San Antonio at home and the 136 points were the most all-time by a Spurs opponent at the AT&T Center. It was San Antonio's first loss in three games since losing All-Star point guard Tony Parker to an ankle injury. Five players scored in double figures but the Trail Blazers, unlike the Celtics against Oklahoma City, had no problem putting the ball in the basket, shooting 61.6 percent from the floor.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Oklahoma (Oklahoma City), Fox Sports Southwest (San Antonio), NBATV

ABOUT THE THUNDER (47-16): The league's top offense was limited Sunday but more than made up for it by clamping down on the other end. Oklahoma City held Boston to 25 percent shooting in the second half and without a field goal for nearly six minutes at one point down the stretch. The Thunder also forced 19 turnovers, which led to 19 points. Russell Westbrook chipped in 15 points but had a season-low two assists in the win. Serge Ibaka, who had seven points and seven rebounds, recorded 25 points and a season high-tying 17 rebounds in a 107-93 victory over the Spurs at home on Dec. 17.

ABOUT THE SPURS (48-15): San Antonio is 3-1 thus far on its five-game homestand. They won the first three by an average of 31.7 points before suffering the 30-point loss to Portland. Overall, the Spurs are 4-3 after a 16-1 stretch that had vaulted them past the Thunder. The embarrassing setback on Friday may serve as a wake-up call. "Obviously, we'll try and learn from it. There will be a bunch of film session involved with this one," said PF Tim Duncan, who led San Antonio with 18 points and eight boards.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.
* Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Thunder are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 9-1 in Spurs’ last 10 games playing on two days of rest.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Parker hit a buzzer-beater to give San Antonio an 86-84 win in the first meeting between the teams Nov. 1.

2. The Spurs have won the last five matchups with the Thunder at home.

3. The finale of the four-game season series is April 4 in Oklahoma City.

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Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of March 3-March 9.

Hot team

Pittsburgh Penguins (3-0 SU)

The Penguins have won four straight after suffering back-to-back losses to close out February. Pittsburgh has tallied 20 goals during its current win streak, but has also allowed 17 markers in the process. The Penguins host the Islanders Sunday before Boston visits The Igloo.

Cold team

Philadelphia Flyers (0-3 SU)

The Flyers are being ripped by the media and their fans for their lackluster effort in Saturday’s 3-0 loss to the Bruins. Philadelphia is 0-9 when trailing after the first period and must find a way to bounce back in games moving forward if it hopes to make the playoffs. Buffalo visits the Wells Fargo Center Sunday before the Flyers play a home-and-home with the Devils.

Best over play

Toronto Maple Leafs (2-2 SU, 4-0 over/under)

The Maple Leafs have struggled to keep the puck out of their own net against the top teams in the East. Pittsburgh and Boston lit the lamp four times on Toronto last week and Montreal scored five times on Ben Scrivens the week prior. The Maple Leafs, who have played over the number in seven consecutive games, are second in the league in penalty minutes (415 PIM), giving their opposition plenty of power play time on a regular basis. Toronto visits Winnipeg Tuesday and then returns to the Air Canada Centre for a three-game homestand.

Best under play

Detroit Red Wings (2-2 SU, 0-4 over/under)

Goals are a dime a dozen right now in Detroit. The Red Wings have gone low in six consecutive games, scoring only eight goals during the under run. Detroit hosts Columbus Sunday before making a run to Canada to play the Flames, Oilers and Canucks.

Scouting the schedule:

-The New York Rangers play four tough road games in six days this week. The Rangers will visit Washington, Buffalo, Winnipeg and Pittsburgh on the trip. New York is 1-6-1 O/U away from MSG.

-The Nashville Predators hit the road for five road games in seven days beginning Tuesday in Dallas. The Predators are 4-7-1-1 away from home, playing under the total in nine of those 13 away games.

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St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga: What bettors need to know

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s (-5.5, 137.5)

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s had to work harder than anticipated to reach the West Coast Conference tournament final for the fifth straight season Monday night in Las Vegas. The top-ranked Bulldogs weren’t able to put away ninth-seeded Loyola Marymount until midway through the second half of Saturday’s semifinal. The No. 23 Gaels needed overtime to beat sixth-seeded San Diego in the other semi.

Gonzaga won both previous meetings this season against Saint Mary's, a five-point victory Jan. 10 at Saint Mary’s and a 17-point win a month later in Spokane, Wash. The Bulldogs feature three players who made the all-WCC first team. Kelly Olynyk, a 7-foot junior center, averages a team-high 17.3 points. He’s backed by 6-8 senior forward Elias Harris (14.8) and 6-2 sophomore guard Kevin Pangos (11.8). Saint Mary’s is led by 6-4 senior point guard Matthew Dellavedova, the school’s all-time career scoring leader who averages 16.2 points and 6.4 assists.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN3.

ABOUT GONZAGA (30-2): Olynyk had a rare off night in the semifinals, scoring eight points on 3-for-10 shooting. He hasn’t been held to single digits in back-to-back games this season or shot under 55 percent from the floor in consecutive games. He scored 31 points when these teams first met and came back with 17 points in the second game. Saint Mary’s is very familiar with Olynyk, but it doesn’t mean the Gaels have anyone who can stop him. Brad Waldow, a 6-9 sophomore forward, will likely draw that assignment for Saint Mary’s.

ABOUT SAINT MARY’S (27-5): Waldow scored a career-high 23 points and matched his career best with 16 rebounds in the semifinal win against San Diego. He showed his toughness during the game when a front tooth was knocked out during the second half and he attempted to hand it off to coach Randy Bennett while continuing to run the floor. He eventually had to be taken out to stop the bleeding. The player who needs to step up for the Gaels is junior guard Stephen Holt, who was held to three points on 1-for-7 shooting against San Diego.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.

* Gaels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.

* Bulldogs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

TIP-INS:

1. Gonzaga has won 30 games for the first time in school history.

2. The Bulldogs have reached the title game 18 consecutive seasons.

3. With his next start, Dellavedova will break the school record for games started at 134. Omar Samhan set the current mark from 2006-10.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Michigan (-1 1/2) Sunday.

Monday it’s St. Mary’s, Calif. The deficit is 35 sirignanos.

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DAVE ESSLER

CBB Monday Cliff Notes

Central Michigan at Buffalo: I get from a stat standpoint why Buffalo is so heavily favored, and I get that Central is just super young. But this is a Buffalo team that turns the ball over almost as much as anyone in the nation, and aside from beating Akron have really just feasted on the bottom of the MAC this season. It's a sub-.500 team overall, for the season and in the conference, which certainly makes it hard to lay these points. The upside to perhaps taking the points is that although CMU is young, Kyle Randall, their do-all guy, is a Senior. Buffalo beat them badly early in the year, but for the last few weeks they've been in most of their games. What I do like about CMU is that although they're primarily an outside shooting team, they do get to the line a fair bit and shoot well over 70%. CMU doesn't turn the ball over, but I'm certainly not going to trust their pitiful defense on the road, yet, because as a matter of principle I won't lay chalk with a sub-.500 team that turns it over, home or not.

St. Mary's at Gonzaga: Clearly the uber-public Zags, for whom we are going to pay the price for playing. Gonzaga doesn't have any weaknesses, so we need not go there. For them it's simply a matter of is their eye on the bigger prize or do they really want to win the Conference Tournament as well. I suspect so, but clearly they've got the target on their back. St. Mary's only two Conference losses were to Gonzaga, and they were destroyed at home, so they DO have some motivation here. That could be why they struggled against San Diego, looking ahead to this game. Clearly opening at only -5 it seems they're begging for Gonzaga money early. St. Mary's has certainly got the experience, but not the length nor the balance. Their one weakness has been defending the three ball, but that's certainly not what Gonzaga really want to do offensively. I do love that St. Mary's is actually the better rebounding team, and that will certainly be the point of emphasis here as in that blowout loss at home they were seriously outrebounded. Although they contained Olynyk, they let Pangos go off, and they themselves hit 12-35 from deep. Last year, they beat Gonzaga in OT in this Tournament, so clearly that's got to be something Few uses as motivation, I would think. But, I guess if you want to give me a Top-25 (or so) team with points, I'd have to take them. The only thing stopping me at this point is that because they blew out LM, nobody for the Zags played a ton of minutes. That SHOULD mean fresher legs and perhaps better defense, so I do lean under in this one.

Miami OH at Bowling Green: The first thing that struck me was that Miami had played the toughest schedule in the MAC. But, Bowling Green played the second toughest. Miami did beat them earlier this season, and actually played them fairly tough at BG, so I would rule out taking the 3-13 team that aside from the Akron loss was actually in most of their games down the stretch. Apparently I wasn't the only one thinking this way, since the line opened at -8 at CRIS is fairly quickly is at -7. BGSU's two home losses were to Akron and Ohio. They (BGSU) may be a little more keen in this game because last year they lost at home in the first round to CMU, which was clearly an embarrassment. But, they are simply not the same team this season without Scott Thomas and Dee Brown. My issue here is that Miami lost Roberts, one of their best and only outside threats, to a season ending injury, as well as Drew McGhee, who although playing sparingly, was a big man. The issue with that, for me, is that BGSU score about 60% of their points inside. However, they don't get to the FT line that much, indicating softness, perhaps. The game will be played fairly slow, and although BGSU plays great team defense, they don't create a ton of turnovers, while Miami is almost the opposite. They gamble a fair bit and DO create turnovers, but have a terrible overall defense in Conference. We'll have to see what shakes out as far as line move confirmation, but it's already lost some. This is yet another case of me simply not laying three possessions with a sub-.500 team against a team that has nothing at all to lose. If BGSU weren't quite so experienced, I'd have already been all over Miami.

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan: I know Northern Illinois has a hard time scoring, but in a game that will be played at a snails' pace and perhaps not see 100 points, there is no chance of laying those points, I don't care how big or how experience Eastern Michigan is, or how young Northern Illinois is. They scored a mere 25 points when last these teams met, so there's certainly nowhere to go but up for them. They almost beat Ball State on the road Saturday, and gave Buffalo a game on the road, so I would contend it's EMU that might have more pressure here, and that's just not something I can back. EMU losing their final home game to Toledo fairly solidly just cannot be a good thing headed into this game, so it's the (gulp) Northern Illinois or nothing here.

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/11/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3695-1278 (.743)
ATS: 1745-1780 (.495)
ATS Vary Units: 4924-5261 (.483)
Over/Under: 492-459 (.517)
Over/Under Vary Units: 546-538 (.504)

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Championship at Richmond Coliseum, Richmond, VA
James Madison 68, Northeastern 66

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship at MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA
Iona 70, Manhattan 69

Mid-American Conference Tournament
1st Round at campus sites
BOWLING GREEN 67, Miami (Ohio) 57
Buffalo 71, CENTRAL MICHIGAN 70
EASTERN MICHIGAN 56, Northern Illinois 41

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament
1st Round at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC
Morgan State 70, South Carolina State 56
Savannah State 58, Umes 43

Southern Conference Tournament
Championship at U.S. Cellular Center, Asheville, NC
Davidson 70, College of Charleston 60

Summit League Tournament
Semifinals at Sioux Falls Arena, Sioux Falls, SD
North Dakota State 53, Western Illinois 48
South Dakota State 75, Fort Wayne 68

Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Championship at Summit Arena, Hot Springs, AR
Western Kentucky vs. Fairleigh Dickinson: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

West Coast Conference Tournament
Championship at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Gonzaga 71, Saint Mary's 65

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/11/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 613-292 (.677)
ATS: 484-445 (.521)
ATS Vary Units: 1241-1121 (.525)
Over/Under: 476-453 (.512)
Over/Under Vary Units: 654-595 (.524)

Brooklyn 92, PHILADELPHIA 91
SAN ANTONIO 107, Oklahoma City 104
UTAH 103, Detroit 94
Denver 108, PHOENIX 102
New York vs. GOLDEN STATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

03/11/13 Predictions

Season: 138-94 (.595)

Boston 3, OTTAWA 2
LOS ANGELES 3, Calgary 2

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Monday

Nuggets -8.5

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Hockey Crusher
Calgary Flames + Los Angeles Kings OVER 5
(System Record: 30-1, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 30-18

Basketball Crusher
Phoenix Suns + Denver Nuggets OVER 210
(System Record: 72-4, won last 4 games and 2 pushes)
Overall Record: 72-50-4

Soccer Crusher
Lanus + Arsenal de Sarandi OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 369-14, won last game)
Overall Record: 369-320-43

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Cappers Access

St Mary's CA +6
Thunder +2

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NCAA Basketball Picks

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga

The Bulldogs look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 neutral site games. Gonzaga is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-5). Here are all of today's early games.

MONDAY, MARCH 11 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 511-512: James Madison vs. Northeastern (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 513-514: Western Kentucky vs. Florida International (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 515-516: Central Michigan at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 47.103; Buffalo 58.284 Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 11 Vegas Line: Buffalo by 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-7 1/2)

Game 517-518: Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 40.566; Eastern Michigan 47.524 Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 7 Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+8 1/2)

Game 519-520: Miami (OH) at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 46.961; Bowling Green 51.705 Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 5 Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 7 Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+7)

Game 523-524: St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 69.025; Gonzaga 75.956 Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 7; 134 Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 5; 138 Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-5); Under

Game 525-526: IPFW vs. South Dakota State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 527-528: North Dakota State vs. Western Illinois (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 529-530: College of Charleston vs. Davidson (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 531-532: Manhattan vs. Iona (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 541-542: Savannah State vs. MD-Eastern Shore (6:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 46.420; MD-Eastern Shore 35.739 Dunkel Line: Savannah State by 10 1/2 Vegas Line: Savannah State by 12 Dunkel Pick: MD-Eastern Shore (+12)

Game 543-544: Morgan State vs. South Carolina State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 53.488; South Carolina State 37.442 Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 16 Vegas Line: Morgan State by 13 Dunkel Pick: Morgan State (-13)