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Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with Cincinnati (-4) Wednesday.
Thursday it’s Richmond. The deficit is 40 sirignanos. -
Big Ten Tournament: Round 1 Betting Preview
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (+2, 129)
Teams intent on solidifying their NCAA Tournament resumes collide when Illinois and Minnesota open Big Ten tournament play in Chicago on Thursday. The eighth-seeded Fighting Illini lost three of their last four regular-season games but are counting on victories over Gonzaga, Indiana and Ohio State to bolster their at-large chances. Ninth-seeded Minnesota lost 10 of 15 games after a 15-1 start and certainly would face a nervous Selection Sunday if it loses to the Illini.
The winner faces top-seeded Indiana in Friday’s quarterfinals. Illinois and Minnesota split two regular-season meetings, each winning on the other’s home floor. Illinois views the United Center as a home away from home and has a 33-11 record in the facility. Minnesota is 5-9 on the road and neutral courts. The Golden Gophers lead the Big Ten with an plus-8.1 rebounding margin while Illinois (minus-0.7) is one of three conference teams that have been outrebounded overall.
TRENDS:
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Favorite is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
* Golden Gophers are 6-14 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines (-14.5, 135)
Fifth-seeded Michigan doesn’t have to be reminded about what could happen it if overlooks 12th-seeded Penn State when it opens Big Ten tournament play Thursday. The No. 8 Wolverines let a 15-point lead get away in losing to the Nittany Lions on Feb. 27 in one of the more stunning upsets of the college season. Penn State had lost 14 straight games prior to delivering a blow that helped derail Michigan’s hopes of winning the regular-season crown.
The winner of this contest faces fourth-seeded Wisconsin in Friday’s quarterfinals. The Wolverines were in the running for an opening-round bye – not to mention a share of the Big Ten crown – until losing to Indiana in the regular-season finale. Penn State went 2-2 over its final four regular-season games after going nearly two months without a victory. The Nittany Lions defeated 11th-place Northwestern in addition to the Wolverines. Michigan won the first meeting, 79-71, 10 days prior to losing to Penn State.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
* Nittany Lions are 6-15-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-6.5, 124)
Purdue’s only chance at extending its NCAA Tournament streak to seven is to win the Big Ten tourney and the Boilermakers begin that arduous task against 10th-seeded Nebraska on Thursday in Chicago. The seventh-seeded Boilermakers are one game below .500 entering the tourney and need four victories in four days to keep the streak from being halted. The Cornhuskers are rebuilding under first-year coach Tim Miles and surviving past Friday would rate as a significant accomplishment.
The winner of the contest faces second-seeded Ohio State in Friday’s quarterfinals. Purdue won this season’s lone meeting by recording a 65-56 win on Nebraska’s home floor on Jan. 16. The Boilermakers routed Minnesota 89-73 in their regular-season finale and have won three of five games entering the tournament. The Cornhuskers also recently defeated Minnesota for their only victory in their last four games. Nebraska averages a conference-low 58.6 points per game.
TRENDS:
* Cornhuskers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games.
* Boilermakers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.
* Over is 24-11 in Boilermakers' last 35 vs. Big Ten.
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-9, 124)
Iowa needs a strong performance in the Big Ten tournament to improve its dicey NCAA Tournament hopes. The sixth-seeded Hawkeyes open conference tourney play against 11th-seeded Northwestern in Chicago on Thursday and an opening-game loss would squash Iowa’s chances at earning an at-large bid. Iowa has won six of its last eight games and probably needs at least two more wins to improve its odds. Northwestern has lost eight straight games and 10 of 11.
The winner of the contest faces third-seeded Michigan State in Friday’s quarterfinals. The Hawkeyes won the two regular-season meetings with the Wildcats by an average of 17 points. Northwestern has averaged just 51.8 points during its losing skid and ranks 11th in the Big Ten at 60.8 per outing. Iowa ranks third in the conference in scoring at 70.3 and leads the Big Ten in field-goal percentage defense at 38.7. Northwestern shoots 40.2 percent, second-lowest in the conference. The Hawkeyes are just 4-9 on road and neutral courts.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
* Under is 10-4-1 in Wildcats last 15 vs. Big Ten.Comment
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ACC Tournament: Round 1 Betting Preview
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Boston College Eagles (+1.5, 130)
Boston College came from behind to beat Georgia Tech 74-72 for its third consecutive victory to end the regular season last Saturday. Five days later, the two young, improving teams meet again in the first round of the ACC tournament at Greensboro, N.C. Eighth-seeded Boston College also rallied to beat Virginia and Clemson in the last three games, shooting a combined 48.9 percent from the field. Guard Olivier Hanlan, named the league’s rookie of the year on Tuesday, has led the way for the Eagles of late.
Georgia Tech could not follow up its win at regular-season champ Miami (Fla.) on March 6, allowing a late 12-0 Boston College surge. The ninth-seeded Yellow Jackets can earn another game against the Hurricanes on Friday with a victory, although they must improve on their league-low 42.4 percent shooting to make a run.
TRENDS:
* Yellow Jackets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (-11.5, 155)
North Carolina State blew an eight-point lead in the second half of its regular-season finale at Florida State and lost 71-67, dropping to the fifth seed for the ACC tournament. That means the Wolfpack will have to win four games in four days to wear the crown, starting with 12th-seeded Virginia Tech in the first round at Greensboro, N.C. on Thursday. North Carolina State is second in the league in scoring, but has struggled defensively at times and is 3-5 in its last eight games decided by four points or less.
The Wolfpack will have to contain the nation’s leading scorer Erick Green, who dropped 29 on them in his team’s 90-86 overtime loss on Feb. 16. Virginia Tech is last in the league in scoring defense, one spot below North Carolina State, and has lost 12 of its last 14 games.
TRENDS:
* Hokies are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Hokies are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games.
* Wolfpack are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral-site games.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Maryland Terrapins (-6, 136)
Maryland will have history on its side when the seventh-seeded Terrapins open the ACC tournament against 10th-seeded Wake Forest on Thursday at Greensboro, N.C. The Terrapins have won six straight against the Demon Deacons and their last six meeting at the conference tournament. The winner will play No. 2 Duke, the second seed, in Friday's quarterfinals.
Maryland's bubble may have burst with Sunday's loss at Virginia but coach Mark Turgeon more focused on seeing his young team improve. "We never talk about (the postseason)," Turgeon said in Monday's ACC teleconference. "We just try to get better. If you play well, things will take care of themselves." The Demon Deacons snapped a three-game losing streak with a 90-79 win against Virginia Tech, where they shot 59.2 percent.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Demon Deacons are 0-7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Over is 10-2 in Demon Deacons last 12 neutral site games.
Clemson Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles (-1, 122)
Sixth-seeded Florida State will begin defense of its ACC tournament title Thursday against Clemson at Greensboro, N.C. The Seminoles enter the game off back-to-back home wins while the 11th-seeded Tigers have lost nine of 10. The winner will play No. 3 seed North Carolina in Friday's quarterfinals.
Florida State swept Clemson by a combined eight points this season, getting a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from senior Michael Snaer on Jan. 24. In three of their six meetings at the ACC tournament, one team has swept the regular-season games only to lose in the postseason. Clemson senior center Devin Booker finished the season hot and the Tigers got sophomore K.J. McDaniels back in the regular-season finale.
TRENDS:
* Tigers are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Seminoles are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.Comment
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DAVE ESSLER
CBB Thursday Cliff Notes
Arkansas-Vanderbilt: Let's not underestimate that this game is being played in Tennessee. Vandy basketball draws and travels well. And we know that the Hogs lone road win this entire season away from Bud Walton Arena was over Auburn, which is nothing to be proud of. This should be a war, because early in the season Arkansas held Vanderbilt to a mere 33 points, and in the rematch the Commodores crushed THEM by 18. The current line has the Hogs favored, and perhaps that's because they did win some fairly impressive home games. Vanderbilt does come in having won four of their last five, albeit against teams they should beat. Since it's much easier to slow a game down than speed it up, Vanderbilt ought to slow the pace down. The don't have the experience (at all) but do have the length. IMO it all comes down to which Sophomore PG plays better, BJ Young or Kedren Johnson. FWIW two of the last three games Johnson went to the line 12+ times. If he does that here, Vanderbilt wins.
Minnesota-Illinois: Obviously in Chicago you would think there'd be a bit of a home court crowd for Illinois, but they were actually pummeled but when these two met in Illinois earlier the Gophers crushed them. Illinois eeked out a win in a low scoring game at Minnesota, so obviously either team is capable. Both teams are technically "in" as of now, but either could play their way right out, so there's some big ramifications here. With that in mind I'd expect this game to be deliberate and low scoring. It might be hard to trust a Minnesota team that limps in with two pretty ugly road losses, or at least uglier than the two Illinois had. Neither team comes in hot/confident. Illinois with a bit more size and experience, and without looking too much further, which I will, I would have to trust the Senior Brandon Paul (Illinois) over the Sophomore Andre Hollins for Minnesota. Just cannot wrap my head around the Gophers turnovers, especially given that Illinois plays a bit faster and in this venue could speed the game up. My only concern fading Minnesota is that they are an excellent offensive rebounding team, but Illinois creates far more turnovers and it's Illinois I'd want at the line late.
Iowa State-Oklahoma: These two met twice this year, with the home team simply crushing both games. Oklahoma's revenge win in Norman was less than two weeks ago, so I would think that would perhaps favor Iowa State a little. iowa State is a projected 12 seed and falling, while Oklahoma is a fairly solid #10 seed. That would certainly tell me the game means more to ISU. Funny how if the Sooners win and ISU doesn't get it, they knock someone from their own Conference out. Neither team does much of anything away from their own gym. ISU was knocked out in the first round be Texas last season, while the Sooners were also done in one by the Aggies. I'd like to take ISU here, because I love Korie Lucious. My one issue is that Oklahoma is much bigger on the perimeter. Since neither of them turn it over much, both are superior from the line, and suck at offensive rebounds, this could be the squarest over play I may make.
Dayton-Butler: Obviously one of these teams is more public than the other, which is probably built into the line. Butler won at Dayton earlier this season, and is bolting from the A-10 after a season. Clearly that's also putting a bigger target on their backs, but it is still Butler and it is still Brad Stevens. What I don't like about trying to back Dayton (which I would instinctively) is that they haven't beaten a good team, in conference, away from home. If Dayton's going to win, they're probably going to have to make some three's, which is not there norm, although they do shoot well from outside. Inside, they're fairly young with the exception of Benson, and that could pose a problem. And I'm not really sure I trust their defense, although perhaps a better way to put it is that I trust Butler's more. Dayton does have some turnover issues that scare me, but Butler's defense, although excellent, is not a pressure defense. And Butler can get sloppy as well, which might make me go with the under in this one. It'll be a very deliberate pace, and barring last minute foul-fest's might be hard pressed to get to the number.
George Washington-Umass: Most of you know I like to fade Umass when they're not in Amherst, but they played well down the stretch except against a highly motivated Butler team coming in off of two losses. GW comes in after beating Dayton in their season finale, and had lost four straight prior to. The thing about that is that three of them were on the road, and the home loss was to St. Louis, so they very well may be a bit under the radar here. The downside is that they won at Amherst, so perhaps UMass remembers that. I think they will, but, GW is a team that would be more than happy to play at the pace the Redmen want to play. The big difference between these two is that GW just doesn't take three point shots, while Umass will take as many as they can. In A-10 play, GW was the number one offensive rebounding team, which is obviously huge. I'd love to take them, and may, but shooting free throws is also something they just don't do well, nor is defending three's, at least in conference play. UMass is a good free throw shooting team, so inasmuch as I'd like to take the points, it's going to take more digging (they all do) to get there. I do think that the total will be higher than it needs to be just because of who these teams are and how they like to play. But, on a neutral site I'd have to think that the turnovers and missed free throws keep it under, and I see it's already lost a bit off of the opener, which as ALREADY less than I had hoped for. This one will beg the aged old question as to whether it's a number we cannot live with, or it there for a reason and we ought to bet it.Comment
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Tampa Bay Championship: Golf Betting Preview & Picks
by Matt Fargo
The PGA Tour heads to the Westin Innisbrook-Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida for the Tampa Bay Championship, formerly known as the Transitions Championship.
The field strength goes down this week coming off a WGC event but there are plenty of big names with four of the OWGR Top 10 players teeing it up. Only two of the Top 10 in the FedEx Cup standings are here, Matt Kuchar and Brian Gay and just two from the Top 10 money list as well, Kuchar and Michael Thompson.
All but one winner since 2004 is back including two-time champions K.J. Choi (2002 and 2006) and Retief Goosen (2003 and 2009). It is interesting to note that five of the last seven winners were 35 years of age or older, including Luke Donald last year, proving experience plays a big role.
After ranking the fourth-hardest par 71 on Tour two years ago (out of 11), Copperhead ranked as the fifth easiest last year, which shows it can be tamed as long as mistakes are kept at a minimum. This is where the veteran experience comes into play.
Keeping the ball in the fairway is a must as the layout is tight, so players that are wayward off the tee will be penalized. Driving distance is not essential, as last year’s driving average was the 11th lowest on Tour after being the fourth lowest two years ago.
Luke Donald (+1,500) was the favorite last year and won in a playoff on the first extra hole over Sang-Moon Bae, Jim Furyk and Robert Garrigus. He did not play here in 2011 but finished T6 in 2010 in his only other start. He is not the favorite this year, so bettors are getting some value which can be attributed to his uneven start this season. He finished fifth in scrambling last year, which is a huge asset here.
Webb Simpson (+2,000) is coming off a T20 at Doral last week, which was his fifth Top 20 in seven starts including each of the last three where he has a T5 and a T6. He was the runner-up here in 2011, finishing one shot behind Gary Woodland, and followed that up with a T10 last year. The best news for Simpson is that his regular caddie Paul Tesori is back on the bag after missing time due to shoulder surgery.
Robert Garrigus (+3,000) hasn't won since 2010 at Disney but he has been painfully close. His T2 here last year is one of six runner-up finishes since his win, with five of those second-place showings coming last year alone. He is coming off a poor finish at the Cadillac Championship but in five events prior to that, he had four Top 20s with his worst finish being a T22.
Jason Day (+3,000) is coming off his most inconsistent effort of the season as he tied for 33rd at the Cadillac Championship, going 74-66-75-71. He had three Top 10s in four starts prior to that and his injury-plagued season from last year is a thing of the past. He also says his mental game is at its best ever. Even with his issues, he finished T20 at Copperhead last year which included three rounds in the 60s.
Gary Woodland (+6,000) won this event in 2011 and even though he has not done much this season, he is getting exceptional value. He closed the 2011 season with eight more Top 20s after that victory. Last season was a forgettable one as he managed only one Top 20 in 22 events. Injuries have played a big part in his inconsistent play and now healthy, he can make a run once again.
Recommended tournament win five pack at the Tampa Bay Championship.
(ALL for One Unit)
Luke Donald (+1,500)
Webb Simpson (+2,000)
Robert Garrigus (+3,000)
Jason Day (+3,000)
Gary Woodland (+6,000)
2013 Record to date after 10 events: +13.16 Units.
2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units.Comment
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Tampa Bay Championship Picks
Date: March 14-17, 2013
Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) – Palm Harbor, FL
TV: The GOLF Channel/NBC
by Evergreen, Golf Handicapper
Spring hasn’t officially sprung yet but the PGA Tour has put ten tournaments in the books already and the eleventh comes this weekend when the players continue the Florida Swing at the Tampa Bay Championship. Luke Donald emerged from a four man playoff to win the 2011 event and is back to defend his title at the Copperhead course at Innisbrook. Some of the biggest stars are sitting this one out but a strong field is here with solid Euro representation from the likes of Louis Oosthuizen, Sergio Garcia and Ernie Els to go along with American favorites in Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Jason Dufner. The Masters is just around the corner for the pros so look for all to be in serious ramp-up mode in the coming weeks and watch for players that are not yet exempt to Augusta to try to punch their ticket with a win down the stretch.
Most of us that watch golf regularly have a picture in our head of what Florida golf looks like but Innisbrook breaks that mold to a large degree and the Copperhead course features some non-traditional Florida golf elements. The 7,340 yard, par-71 layout is much more confined than the open tracks through much of the state and that makes it more of a shotmakers course than anything else. Precise drives and approaches are needed to negotiate both trouble spots and the natural winding of the course along with its many doglegs. A look at recent winners backs up the notion that control beats power here as Retief Goosen, K.J. Choi and Jim Furyk have all raised the trophy in past years. Alongside good accuracy numbers, all of those players were among the best at getting up and down so the scrambling game will come into play here throughout the week as well. The greens aren’t upper echelon difficult by Tour standards so it really is a toss-up type of event as most of the field will be capable of making a bunch of putts if they can negotiate the tee to green side of it. Padraig Harrington fired course record 61 to open last year’s tournament and several players carded rounds in the mid-sixties to get in the mix on Sunday so good scores are out there but players will need to be leery of the final three holes. That finishing stretch – dubbed the Snake Pit – was Ernie Els’ undoing last year and should make or break the winner’s chances right down to the wire.
Now that we’ve got those particulars out the way, let’s get on with the business of picking who is going to win this one. I’m going to give you a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown a couple of head to head matches that you can find at any golf betting site out there.
Here are my Picks to Win the 2013 Tampa Bay Championship.
Short Favorite: Matt Kuchar (20 to 1 odds to win)
The online betting sites really like Luke Donald and Adam Scott this week and both are getting 12 to 1 odds across nearly all of the golf sportsbooks. They are terrific players obviously but I really haven’t seen enough from them to throw money their way and I suspect there is some tuning up they would like to do and I think they are overvalued this week. Matt really hasn’t got lined up yet but he still hasn’t missed a cut in six starts and was able to get the win at the Accenture a few weeks back. He’s been in the top-12 twice here in the last couple of years and his putter is really producing right now. I think a condensed layout with a accuracy premium only sharpens Kuchar this week and I expect to see him improve his fairways and greens hit marks as he doesn’t have to overpower this course.
Middle of the Pack: Martin Kaymer (40 to 1 odds to win)
Two years ago, Kaymer was the number one ranked player in the world but today he barely gets a mention behind the likes of McIlroy, Donald and Westwood on the Euro side. Still, Martin is young, clearly talented and has had a few seasons of bouncing around both Tours to get his feet under him and start contending again. Stats are pretty irrelevant at this point for most of the Euro set as they have just a handful of events in on this Tour and one of them was the match play that doesn’t count toward the sheet as those rounds aren’t always 18 holes. Kaymer has hung around the last two weeks, finishing 51st and 49th but another week minus travel and another start on a course that he can handle should produce a better result. The putter has been doing alright and that should hold him above water until the rest of the game rounds into shape. You don’t get to #1 without having all the shots in your bag and I think it is time for that talent to start showing itself again. 40 to 1 is a great value this week and I have Martin among the best overall values in relation to the field for the season to date. If you feel like making a bit of a gut pick, here it is.
Longshot: Zach Johnson (60 to 1 odds to win)
Looking down the board, it is really hard to find a better value or a better prototypical fit for this course than Zach. Johnson is perennially one of the best on Tour at finding the fairways and greens and Copperhead is among the shortest par-71’s on Tour so there is no need to be a bomber to succeed. I expect a pretty boring week from Johnson with a no-nonsense approach that features a bunch of greens hit from the fairways but his putter will need to perk up a bit as there will be a need to put up a pretty good number at some point to get over the hump. Copperhead should lend plenty of birdies to players like Zach and you have to like the fact that the shorter players will have scoring clubs in their hands without the extreme distances associated with many Florida courses.
Head to Head Matches *Picks to win based on final score after all four rounds.
Check out your favorite online betting site for single round matches and a variety of prop bets.
Jason Dufner v. Webb Simpson (our pick to win: Dufner)
Pretty simple here given the host course as Dufner has hit more fairways and greens in 2013 play. Simpson is the better putter so far this year but I think that edge is muted this week and the putts should start dropping for Jason. Simpson has hit a ton greens himself but he really has been skating by and finding them from the rough as his fairways hit mark is outside the top-125. That is trouble this week and I do not like getting behind guys who are wayward off the tee at tracks like this. Dufner is inside the top-10 in fairways hit and gets the nod in this match.
Jim Furyk v. Nick Watney (our pick to win: Furyk)
I’d feel better about this if Furyk was hitting greens like he has throughout his career but even a sub-standard ballstriking effort so far is good enough for a pro that obviously likes this layout. Watney is finding more greens right now but his putter is barely inside the top-150 and that is too much ground to give to a veteran that has won this event before. If Furyk has an average week from tee to green, I don’t think he can finish outside the top-25 and I see Watney having to do some work to make the weekend, especially if the putts continue to not fall.Comment
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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY
Montana St. +4 over Northern ColoradoComment
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CAPPERS ACCESS
Georgetown
Pittsburgh
IowaComment
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JACK JONES
College Basketball Premium Picks
NCAA-B | Mar 14 '13 (12:00p)
GEORGIA TECH vs BOSTON COLLEGEGEORGIA TECH
-1-110 at betus15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech -1
This is a classic regular season finale rematch spot that I'm going to take advantage of. Boston College beat Georgia Tech 74-72 on March 9th in the regular season finale for both teams. Now, playing each other less than a week later, I'm backing the Yellow Jackets to get revenge on a neutral court this time around.
This play falls into a system that is 79-43 (64.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (GEORGIA TECH) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season.
Georgia Tech played very well down the stretch, going 3-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall. That includes a 71-69 road victory on March 6th over ACC regular season champ Miami as a 13-point underdog, and a 78-68 home victory over possible NCAA Tournament contender Maryland on February 27th.
The Yellow Jackets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.NCAA-B | Mar 14 '13 (2:30p)
DAYTON vs BUTLERBUTLER
-3½-110 at betus15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -3.5
The Butler Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament over the Dayton Flyers. Butler won at Dayton 79-73 in their lone regular season meeting on January 12th. The Flyers (17-13) have no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers in the rematch.
Butler (24-7) isn't a complete lock to get into the NCAA Tournament, and it doesn't want to lose this game to give the committee any reason to keep it out of the Big Dance. This team doesn't take games off under the head coaching of Brad Stevens, either.
Stevens is 24-9 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Butler. The Bulldogs are 15-2 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
Butler is 7-0 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 10.2 points/game. Roll with Butler Thursday.-= TOP PLAY =-NCAA-B | Mar 14 '13 (2:30p)
SYRACUSE vs PittsburghSYRACUSE
+2½-110 at BetOnline15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +2.5
The Syracuse Orange should not be an underdog to the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second round of the Big East Tournament today. In my opinion, Syracuse is the best No. 5 seed in the country in all of these conference tournaments. This team is undervalued due to its poor finish to the season.
Sure, Syracuse lost four of its final five games to close out the regular season. However, those four losses came to Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette, which are the three teams in the Big East that finished with the best records.
Pittsburgh won each of its final four games to close out the regular season. A closer look shows that those four victories were unimpressive as all four came against mediocre Big East teams in St. Johns, South Florida, Villanova and DePaul. However, the Panthers are getting respect because of this finish, but as you can see it's unwarranted.
The Orange are going to be out for revenge from a 55-65 loss at Pittsburgh on February 2nd in their lone regular season meeting. Jim Boeheim is 21-9 ATS a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of Syracuse. He gets his teams to play at their highest level at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament.
Pittsburgh is 0-9 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. This trend just goes to show how the Panthers have been overvalued after a few dominant performances in a row, which is the case here. The Orange are the better team and that will show on the court today. Take Syracuse Thursday.
-= TOP PLAY =-NCAA-B | Mar 14 '13 (6:30p)
NEBRASKA vs PURDUEPURDUE
-5½-110 at betus20* Big Ten Opening Round ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -5.5
The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the Big Ten Tournament. As a result, they are the biggest sleeper in this tourney and I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see them win a few games in it. It starts Thursday with a blowout victory over Nebraska.
The Boilermakers won two of their final three games while going a perfect 3-0 ATS in the process. What's most impressive about that is the fact that all three of those teams are projected to be in the NCAA Tournament. They won 69-56 at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog, vs. Minnesota 89-73 as a 3-point dog, and lost vs. Michigan 75-80 as a 6.5-point dog.
After playing such tough competition to close out the regular season, the Boilermakers are clearly battle-tested. It will be like playing a high school team when they get to face lowly Nebraska in the opening round. The Huskers are just 14-17 overall, including 5-13 in Big Ten play.
Purdue won 65-56 at Nebraska on January 16th in their lone meeting of the regular season as a 2-point favorite. In fact, the Boilermakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS vs. Nebraska since the Cornhuskers joined the Big 12 last year. All three victories have come by 9, 18 and 18 points.
The Boilermakers are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Purdue is 6-0 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. These last three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Boilermakers today. Take Purdue Thursday.
NCAA-B | Mar 14 '13 (7:30p)
Arkansas vs VANDERBILTArkansas
-2-110 at betus25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -2
The Arkansas Razorbacks represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 SEC Tournament. There won't be a better wagering opportunity than this one folks. I look for the Razorbacks to roll over the Vanderbilt Commodores in the opening round of the conference tourney Thursday.
Arkansas needs this win to stay alive for the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that is squarely on the bubble, and only a deep run in the SEC Tournament will get them in. Vanderbilt is just 14-16 on the season and it has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
The home team won in blowout fashion in both meetings with Arkansas winning 56-33 at home on January 12th, and Vanderbilt winning 67-49 at home on February 9th. However, the Razorbacks were in a huge letdown spot heading into their second meeting after beating then-No. 1 Florida 80-69 in their previous game. It was only human nature for them to have such a letdown following such a big win.
Vanderbilt is clearly overvalued due to winning four of its final five games to close out the season. However, all four of those victories came against SEC bottom feeders in Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina and Georgia. Kevin Stallings is 30-51 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of Vanderbilt.
Mike Anderson is 11-2 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game as the coach of Arkansas. The Razorbacks are winning 69.5 to 61.6 in this spot, or by an average of 7.9 points/game. Bet Arkansas Thursday.Comment
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Gold Medal Club Selections 14/03/2013
CBB:
25* #759 East Carolina PK
25* #736 Massachusetts -2.5Comment
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NBA
Hot Teams
-- Dallas won last four games (21-7 vs spread in last 28).
Cold Teams
-- Spurs are 5-4 last nine games, 1-2 in last three (4-1 last five HF).
-- Knicks lost three of last four games; Chandler/Anthony both got hurt last night, Chandler could play here (1-4 last five AU). Portland also lost three of last four games (4-1 last five HF).
Totals
-- Four of last five San Antonio games stayed under the total.
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Back-to-backs
-- Knicks are 3-4 vs spread on road if they played night before.Comment
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CBB
Big East tournament (NYC)
-- Georgetown (+4) won 62-55 at Cincinnati Feb 15, holding Bearcats to 4-24 from arc, while UC was just 17-30 from foul line. Hoyas won 12 of last 13 games overall, beating Syracuse by double digits twice- last four Big East tourneys, they're just 4-4, but won first tournament game six of last eight years. Bearcats weren't overly taxed yesterday, jumping out to 18-point lead. 16 of last 18 Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Syracuse played four starters 37+ minutes but beat Seton Hall by 12 after trailing by 10 in first half, just their second win in last eight games; Orange (+4) lost 65-55 at Pitt Feb 2; Panthers turned ball over 20 times but shot 60% inside arc. Pitt was 12-4 in Big East tourney from 2003-8, is just 1-4 last four years; Panthers won four in row, 11 of last 14 games overall. Syracuse is now 7-6 in Big East tourney since last title ('06).
-- Villanova has gone W-L in Big East tourney six of last eight years; last night was the win. Wildcats (+11) outscored Louisville 31-19 over final 10:00 to upset Cardinals 73-64 January 22 in Philly. Cardinals are 9-2 in this event last four years, but is just 2-3 in this round since joining Big East, winning by 6-11ot. Last time Villanova won two games in Big East tourney was '04. Nine of last 12 Louisville games stayed under total.
-- Marquette (-5.5) shot 64% inside arc, beat Notre Dame 72-64 at home March 2, but Irish had 17 offensive boards. Eagles won last four games, are 16-4 in last 20- they've won first tourney game five of last six years. Irish are 4-3 in its last seven games since winning consecutive OT games last month; they lost four of last six on road, played three starters 35+ minutes last night. Only once in last decade has Notre Dame won twice in same Big East tournament.
ACC tournament (Greensboro)
-- Florida State beat Clemson twice this year, by 5-3 points, racing out to 24-8 lead in first game, rallying to win second after being down 11 in second half; Seminoles are 3-1 in last four games- they won this tourney LY, but are 4-5 in first game of last nine ACC tourneys. Clemson lost its last six games, scoring 55.3 ppg; they're 3-7 in first game last 10 ACC tourneys, were 9-36 from arc vs FSU (29% from arc in ACC play).
Atlantic 16 tournament (Brooklyn)
-- Butler (-1) shot 60% inside arc, 7-13 outside it Jan 12 in 79-73 win at Dayton, during its 13-game win streak; Bulldogs were 14-7 in Horizon tourney games last decade, but this is deeper water. Dayton (0-3) hasn't won A-16 tourney game in last four years, scoring 60.7 ppg; Flyers won three of last four games, blowing OT game at GW Saturday. In six of its seven losses this season, Butler was held to 61 or less points.
Big X tournament (Kansas City)
-- Iowa State/Oklahoma are both bubble teams, but Sooners' loss at TCU last game may have crippled them; home team won both games between these clubs this year, by wide margins. Oklahoma was 34-34 from line in 86-69 win over ISU March 2 (Cyclones were 14-22). Iowa State is 5-2 in last seven games overall, but are 0-7 in Big X tourney, with last three losses by 7 points or less. Sooners are 1-4 in this event last four years.
-- Oklahoma State won 11 of last 13 games, is in tourney; Baylor is 4-8 in last 12 games, even with home upset of Kansas last game, they need at least one win this weekend to make NCAAs. Teams split two games this year, with home wide winning both; OSU was 5-37 from arc- they won first tourney game nine years in row, with three of last four by 14+ points. Baylor won six of ten games in this tourney last four years.
Pac-12 tourney (MGM Garden Arena, Las Vegas)
-- Arizona State played four guys 43+ minutes, a fifth guy 38 in 89-88 OT win yesterday that kept its NCAA hopes alive- it was first win for ASU in this event in last decade except for when it had James Harden in '09. ASU waxed UCLA by 18 at home, then lost in OT at Pauley Feb 27 in rematch. Bruins are 9-5 in this event last seven years, 3-4 in last four. its been five years since the #1 seed won this tournament. ASU's Carson is one of two best freshmen in country, gives Sun Devils a chance.
-- Arizona hasn't won Pac-12 tourney since 2002; they lost in final last two years, both by a basket. Colorado is now 5-0 in Pac-12 tournament; they split pair of games vs Arizona this year, getting robbed by refs on bad clock call in Tucson, but winning rematch by 13. Buffs' Roberson played 25 minutes yesterday in his return from illness. Arizona is 4-4 in last eight games after 20-2 start, as lack of true PG begins to show up.
-- Oregon is 5-6 in last 11 games after 18-2 start; PG Artis played 16.7 mpg in three games back from foot injury, but hasn't made 2-point hoop (5-11 from arc). Washington is now 5-2 in last seven games after holding on to beat its rival Wazzu last night, winning by basket after leading by 19 with 14:29 left- they won this tourney two of last three years, lost by hoop in first game LY. Ducks lost first tourney game three of last five years, after winning tourney in '07.
WAC tournament (Orleans Arena, Las Vegas)
-- Tex-Arlington went 11-7 in its first year in WAC despite losing twice on road last week; they swept pair vs Utah State this year, winning by 15-6 points, with +17 turnover ratio (33-16) in two games, holding State to 34.5/29.6% inside arc in those games. Mavericks are #12 team in USA in experience. Aggies are 12-4 in WAC tourney as they prepare to leave for MWC; they're banged up this season, losing last three road games.
Big West tournament (Anaheim)
-- Cal Poly won five in row, eight of last nine games; they lost by hoop at buzzer at UC-Davis Jan 10, then won rematch by 15 (led at half by 17). Mustangs lost pair of home games by total of four points last week, blowing 19-point halftime lead in final vs Irvine; they're 2-10 this season vs teams ranked higher than #199 (Cal Poly is #145). Cal Poly won first tourney game in two of three years that Callero has been their coach,Comment
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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
03/14/13 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 3732-1288 (.743)
ATS: 1769-1806 (.495)
ATS Vary Units: 4984-5316 (.484)
Over/Under: 515-473 (.521)
Over/Under Vary Units: 570-553 (.508)
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
1st Round at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Butler 70, Dayton 66
Massachusetts 75, George Washington 70
Richmond 73, Charlotte 69
Xavier 63, Saint Joseph's 62
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
1st Round at Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC
Boston College 64, Georgia Tech 63
Florida State 62, Clemson 58
Maryland 71, Wake Forest 67
NC State 83, Virginia Tech 69
Big 12 Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
Iowa State 81, Oklahoma 79
Kansas 81, Texas Tech 56
Kansas State 72, Texas 63
Oklahoma State 75, Baylor 69
Big East Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Georgetown 64, Providence 55
Louisville 66, Villanova 59
Marquette 64, Notre Dame 63
Pittsburgh 60, Syracuse 59
Big Sky Conference Tournament
1st Round at Dahlberg Arena, Missoula, MT
North Dakota 72, Southern Utah 67
Northern Colorado 78, Montana State 73
Weber State 79, Northern Arizona 63
Big Ten Conference Tournament
1st Round at United Center, Chicago, IL
Illinois 63, Minnesota 62
Iowa 66, Northwestern 56
Michigan 73, Penn State 58
Purdue 64, Nebraska 58
Big West Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Cal Poly 71, UC Davis 66
Long Beach State 78, Cal State Fullerton 70
Pacific 66, UC Santa Barbara 58
UC Irvine 78, Hawai'i 70
Conference USA Tournament
Quarterfinals at BOK Center, Tulsa, OK
East Carolina 77, Tulsa 76
Memphis 80, Tulane 65
Southern Miss 73, Uab 69
Utep 72, Houston 68
Great West Conference Tournament
1st Round at Jones Convocation Center, Chicago, IL
Utah Valley vs. Houston Baptist: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Mid-American Conference Tournament
3rd Round at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Western Michigan 57, Eastern Michigan 54
Kent State 76, Buffalo 67
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC
Hampton 60, Delaware State 55
Morgan State 55, Savannah State 53
Pacific-12 Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Arizona 66, Colorado 63
California 65, Utah 57
Oregon 66, Washington 65
Ucla 73, Arizona State 67
Southeastern Conference Tournament
2nd Round at Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Georgia 65, Lsu 62
Missouri 82, Mississippi State 63
Tennessee 68, Texas A&M 59
Southland Conference Tournament
2nd Round at Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
McNeese State 67, Southeastern Louisiana 65
Oral Roberts 65, Sam Houston State 63
Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
1st Round at Special Events Center, Garland, TX
Alcorn State vs. Prairie View A&M: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Jackson State 66, Alabama State 62
Western Athletic Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
New Mexico State 74, Idaho 63
Utah State 65, UT Arlington 61
Denver 77, Texas State 56
Louisiana Tech 73, UT San Antonio 60
Non-Conference
SAN FRANCISCO 70, Northern Kentucky 57Comment
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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
03/14/13 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 630-298 (.679)
ATS: 497-456 (.522)
ATS Vary Units: 1276-1139 (.528)
Over/Under: 489-464 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 666-606 (.524)
SAN ANTONIO 110, Dallas 100
PORTLAND 100, New York 99Comment
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